FanDuel MLB DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (10/7)

One of the keys to playoff baseball is identifying the lineups that are going to score the most runs, as pitching typically rules the roost. The best way to do this is to check the Vegas over/under for runs on your favorite betting platform, perhaps BettingPros? While the Padres and Dodgers run line has yet to be released, we do know that the Braves/Marlins over/under is 8.5, and both AL matchups have the line set at nine. Meanwhile, the Padres/Dodgers are hitting in a supreme pitcher’s park in Arlington, so runs may be hard to come by in that series.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

 
Urquidy had COVID-19, delaying his start to the 2020 regular season. However, he looked sharp in four of his five starts this season, going at least six innings in his last four and allowing just one or two runs each time. The A’s are having trouble stringing good at-bats together, relying on the long ball so far this series. The main reason to consider Urquidy is that he should have a longer leash than other potential value plays (Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Chris Paddack) since the Astros are up 2-0. Urquidy is shaping up to be similar to Kyle Hendricks, but with more strikeouts. One final point: He has been on this stage before, and performed well in last year’s playoffs. If you aren’t going to pay up for pitching, he’s the guy to target.

Catcher/ First Base

 
D’Arnaud put on an absolute show in Game 1 of the NLDS, hitting a three-run bomb and a double. He has crushed Lopez in a small sample, hitting two homers against him in seven at-bats. To entice you even more, he also has occupied a prominent spot in the Braves’ deep lineup, regularly hitting fourth behind Marcell Ozuna.

Gurriel has struggled this year despite posting a 137 wRC+ against lefties, and he sits at 13% above league average for his career. This is evidenced even in his small sample against Luzardo, hitting two homers in five at-bats against him.

Second Base

 
Taylor had a bounce-back season, slashing .270/.366/.476 over 56 games. He particularly heated up in September, hitting .296/.374/.617. He will likely bat in the bottom of the order, but Paddack has struggled mightily with his fastball recently, and Taylor’s .436 wOBA against fastballs ranked 29th in all of baseball (minimum 50 plate appearances).

Third Base

 
Turner continues to get no love despite posting a 140 wRC+ in 42 games this season. He will hit third in a deep Dodgers lineup and gets to face a struggling Paddack. He makes for a solid cash-game play with his safer floor.

Shortstop

 
Baseball’s biggest villain didn’t have his finest year, as Correa walked less and wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as he usually does. However, he did post a 112 wRC+ against lefties and is at 136 for his career. He ended the season hot, which has continued into the postseason — four of his last five games have given us at least 20 FanDuel points.

Outfield

 
Dickerson has consistently been underrated throughout his career, and he will likely bat leadoff on Wednesday. While he doesn’t have a hit off of Ian Anderson in five at-bats, he has a 123 wRC+ against righties for his career.

Arozarena has been on fire, hitting two homers already this postseason. His price is still way too low, so take advantage. Masahiro Tanaka’s career 16.7% HR/FB rate means the Rays will likely hit homers.

Hicks has hit third in this monstrous Yankees lineup, regularly getting on base, driving in runs, and scoring himself. He provides a safe floor by putting balls into play and taking plenty of walks (12.5%), which accumulates DFS points quickly.

Meadows started Game 2 of the ALDS, hitting a 104 MPH homer. He’s close to full health, and with Tanaka’s ability to give up the long ball, he’s an intriguing star at a value price.

Gardner has crushed Charlie Morton in his career, slashing .308/.379/.731 against him in 26 at-bats. Gardner should start over Clint Frazier and be another solid value bat in a series that has seen plenty of runs.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

Ian Anderson (SP – ATL), $9,500: Anderson struck out nine hitters to just two walks and two hits in his first playoff start against the Reds, and he will face a similar lineup (below average overall with a bad strikeout rate) in the Marlins. The Marlins have a more consistent lineup, but they likely won’t pile up runs in bunches. Anderson has consistently posted elite strikeout numbers in the minors, which carried over into his five outings this year.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY), $4,100: The dude loves hitting in Petco Park, and he has five homers in his last four games. He’s the one stud you want to pay up for.

Brandon Lowe (2B – TB), $3,500: Lowe broke out this year, hitting 14 bombs and posting a 150 wRC+. He will get a shot at taking Tanaka’s splitter yard, and he has as good of a shot outside of the Yankees sluggers to hit a homer.

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU), $3,800: Bregman has done a lot of damage against lefties in his career, posting a 170 wRC+. His hard-hit rate improved once he returned from injury, which suggests that he’s getting back to the top-15 fantasy player that we expect him to be.

Corey Seager (SS – LAD), $4,100: Seager established himself as an MVP candidate this year, and he should be able to succeed against a not fully-operational Paddack.

4 Notable Players to Fade

 Jesús Luzardo (SP – OAK), $6,600: Luzardo’s price is certainly enticing, but he figures to have a short leash in a do-or-die game for the Athletics. The Astros also hit lefties well, meaning that Luzardo has a high likelihood of not returning value, even with the low price.

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL), $3,800: Albies hasn’t been the same since his return from injury, striking out significantly more than last year while seeing a two mile per hour dip in average exit velocity. Hitting sixth in the lineup also limits his upside.

Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU), $3,700: Tucker has struggled against lefties this season, hitting 12% below league average. There are plenty of Astros bats to target against a lefty, but Tucker isn’t one of them.

Manny Machado (3B – SDP), $4,100: Machado has hit Clayton Kershaw fairly well in a limited sample (.278/.278/.611), but Globe Life is very much a pitcher’s park, and third base has several other options at cheaper prices.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and personal fantasy blog,  and follow him @cmaiorano3.