FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (10/4)

The NBA has a one-game slate for Sunday’s Finals action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!

Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel

Value Plays: Point Guard

After starting almost every Heat game during the regular season, Kendrick Nunn got benched for Goran Dragic in the playoffs. Now back in the starting lineup, Nunn has responded with 23.3 and 27.0 fantasy points in his two Finals games, averaging 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists over 24 minutes per game. He’s worth playing over Rajon Rondo due to his involvement in the offense down Dragic and Bam Adebayo.

Rondo did ball out in Game 2, recording a double-double of 16 points and 10 assists with four rebounds. That totaled 34.8 fantasy points, his fourth-highest total of the postseason. I wouldn’t count on Rondo double-doubling in back-to-back Finals games, but if you need to save $1,000, Rondo over Nunn is a fair and possibly profitable alternative.

Alex Caruso has failed to total 20 or more fantasy points in either NBA Finals game and played 44 combined minutes thus far. He’s risky, even with the Heat’s roster depleted with injuries. I’d pass on Caruso and root for him just for fun, not for your DFS lineups.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler could feel like a lone soldier out there without his two best running mates, but the young guns are all around. He has three key players in the main rotation who have been in the league two years or fewer. Besides Andre Iguodala and Udonis Haslem, he’s the most veteran player. Butler had a monster 54.1-fantasy point effort in Game 2 on 25 points, 13 assists, and eight rebounds. He’s worth the PRO spot in DFS, or STAR spot at most.

Tyler Herro had another solid outing, finishing Game 2 with a postseason-high of 42 minutes for 17 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Herro has recorded 20 or more fantasy points in his last three games and eight of his last 10 overall. Miami will play him 35-plus minutes, arguably the most on the team next to Butler, so select Herro, too.

In Iguodala’s sixth straight NBA Finals, he has played more than he did in the previous series, totaling 25 minutes in his first two games versus the Lakers. Iguodala posted 24 fantasy points in Game 1 with an all-around performance of seven points, six assists, and five rebounds. In Game 2, he scored seven points again, but couldn’t get much see going with two boards and one assist. He’s a high-risk who could offer some upside in a blowout, which we haven’t witnessed yet.

Small Forward

LeBron James continued his ridiculous NBA Finals play in Game 2 with 33 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. The King has totaled 55 or more fantasy points in both games and has the highest amount of fantasy points through two games (118.4) of any player in the series. He’s going to be another close call for a triple-double, and he’s played 36 and 39 minutes in both games, a positive sign for a potential blowout.

Jae Crowder has recorded 20 or more fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games overall and 13 of 17 postseason games overall. He’s scored double-digits in 12 playoff contests and Crowder’s value skyrocketed when Adebayo and Dragic went down with injuries. I still believe Crowder is underrated, and he’s proven to be a quality role player for Miami.

Markieff Morris Sr. has played 32 minutes total in this series and recorded 26.1 fantasy points. He’s a fade right now, as most of the Lakers’ role players are hit or miss with James and Davis running the show. There are better options around the same value as Morris, such as Kelly Olynyk ($8,000) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($8,500).

Power Forward

Anthony Davis continued to feast, recording his first double-double in seven games with 32 points and 14 rebounds. He’s posted back-to-back games of 50 or more fantasy points and is destined for a third-straight in Game 3 without Adebayo. Davis has scored at least 27 points in six straight games, and he’s contending with LeBron for Finals MVP.

Kyle Kuzma has now failed to reach 20 fantasy points in seven straight games. He’s simply a fade who comes with too much of a risk. Outside of scoring, which he hasn’t been doing all that much of, Kuzma doesn’t offer a winning game for DFS. Pass on him for KCP or Olynyk.

It’s looking unlikely that Adebayo will suit up for the Heat in Game 3. He could be worth a play if he does, but a neck strain is nothing to risk. At his value, he would be flagged as high-risk with his injury, and unfortunately, Adebayo will likely miss the rest of the Finals. Hopefully, this isn’t the only chance he ever gets at an NBA Finals.

Center

Kelly Olynyk had a big Game 2, going for 35.8 fantasy points on 24 points, nine rebounds, and two assists. That was by far Olynyk’s best game, as he set a postseason-high for fantasy points, points, rebounds, and minutes played (37). If you’re going to select a center tonight, this is the guy.

Dwight Howard only played 15 minutes in Game 2 and totaled 15.9 fantasy points, more than his Game 1 amount of 13.6 in more minutes played (17). He’s not an ideal pick, and with Olynyk playing so much and stretching the floor, Howard goes back to being irrelevant in DFS.

JaVale McGee still hasn’t played a minute in the series, and it’s looking slim unless a blowout of 20 or more occurs. Don’t even think about it or make the mistake of picking McGee on accident.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• LeBron James (LAL), $16,000: LeBron led Game 2 in scoring with 33 points and finished one rebound and assist short of a triple-double. He’s a must-play if you want to win money.
• Anthony Davis (LAL), $15,000: Davis is the No. 1 or 2 option all series long. If he’s not in the MVP or STAR spot, you’ve been missing out on fantasy points left and right. 
• Jimmy Butler (MIA), $13,500: Butler is the only player who can reel this Heat team back from a 2-0 deficit and is worth one of the three big spots, preferably the pro spot. 
• Tyler Herro (MIA), $11,000: Herro continued his scoring streak of 10 or more points to 24 consecutive games and all 17 postseason contests. He continues to be one of the leading scorers for the Heat in his first career postseason. 
• Jae Crowder (MIA), $9,500: Crowder is still an underrated DFS selection and more of a consistent threat than most of the Lakers’ role players for that value.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Dwight Howard (LAL), $8,500: Howard has recorded fewer than 16 fantasy points in both Finals games and more than 16 minutes only once.
• Kyle Kuzma (LAL), $8,000: Kuzma has played 20 minutes or more in three straight games but has failed to hit 20 fantasy points in seven straight. 
• Alex Caruso (LAL), $7,500: Caruso has only topped 20 fantasy points once in his last 20 games, making him a risk compared to his counterpart, Rondo.
• Markieff Morris Sr. (LAA), $7,000: Morris hasn’t scored double-digits in eight straight games and has only done it twice all postseason. 
• Solomon Hill (MIA), $6,500: Hill saw 18 minutes in Game 1 when Dragic and Adebayo went down, but in Game 2, he didn’t receive a single minute. Game 3 is a hard fade for someone who could have been a sleeper. 

View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for the NBA Finals at BettingPros

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.