Week 7 is here, and we’re almost halfway through the NFL season. I hope that your DFS ventures have been profitable thus far! If they haven’t been, well, you’ve still got some time to turn things around!
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Check out our full Projected Roster % Report here
Quarterback
Russell Wilson is chalk this week. Bet on him in cash leagues; consider betting against him in tournaments. The Cardinals and Seahawks are projected to score 56 points, so there should be a lot of offensive fireworks in that game. Expect plenty of stacks involving those teams as well — Kyler Murray ranks just below Wilson in the 10-20% rostership range.
Two more quarterbacks should be pretty popular plays — Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Both are fairly expensive options in what should be solid wins (the Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites, while the Packers are 3.5-point favorites).
Quite a few guys made the list in the 5-10% range, but developments since Thursday should affect these percentages. You should expect Derek Carr to trend downward given the state of Las Vegas’ offensive line, while Joe Burrow may trend up now that Joe Mixon is out.
Running Back
NOTE: Alvin Kamara is such a popular play for Week 7 that he caused an error with our tool. It expects him to be rostered in 40%+ of lineups.
Kamara is chalk, and he’ll likely be even more popular with the news surrounding Jones and Mixon. Even Latavius Murray should be a popular contrarian play against Carolina’s run-funnel defense.
Yikes. The roughest part about full-slate DFS matchups, from which these numbers are generated, is how quickly things can change in the NFL. Aaron Jones picked up an injury tag and has been named a game-time decision. As a result, some DFS players may stay away — if Jones can’t suit up, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon will see their numbers skyrocket.
Likewise, Giovani Bernard should be on many more rosters now that we know Joe Mixon is out.
So the first name on this list worth paying attention to is Kareem Hunt. He’s locked into the 20-30% range, and with the two names above him sidelined, more DFS players may fit him into their lineups. Hunt exploded against the Bengals the last time he played them, so he’s a relatively safe option here.
I’ll spotlight one player trending in the right direction in the 10-20% range: Antonio Gibson. With Dallas’ offensive line severely banged up, they’ll struggle to do much on offense, and Gibson should be trusted with running out the clock. The Football Team won’t have some of their other receiving options, either, so Gibson could see more targets than usual.
Wide Receiver
We’ve got four guys in what should be high-scoring games atop this list. Davante Adams is a safe bet to explode against the Texans, especially if Aaron Jones is forced to miss time. The Packers just don’t have any other weapons to target.
Tyler Boyd, like Kareem Hunt, already proved himself the last time these teams met. Boyd caught seven of his eight targets for 72 yards and a score, which is tons of value at his price point.
DeAndre Hopkins and Terry McLaurin are trending in different directions. Hopkins earned a questionable tag and is still dealing with an injury, so he could be limited against Seattle. If he is, Christian Kirk should become a popular pick. Meanwhile, the Football Team won’t have wide receivers Isaiah Wright and Antonio Gandy-Golden this week, so McLaurin will see even more volume than usual.
Tight End
There isn’t much to say at tight end this week. If you can’t find a bargain-bin play you like, then roll with a higher-priced option. Travis Kelce should be popular (although, surprisingly, George Kittle didn’t crack the list — probably due to his matchup), so rest assured that you won’t be the only user spending up at tight end.
Henry is a decent option this week as well, especially for his price. That said, the Chargers may opt to emphasize the running game against Jacksonville’s pedestrian defense, so Henry isn’t a sure thing. Consider that before spending the extra $1,500 for him over someone like Ian Thomas.
Defense
A trio of punt plays top this list — Arizona, New York, and Detroit. If everyone is expecting their games to be high-scoring, why not make the contrarian play? The strategy makes some sense, but I think you can get a better deal. The Dallas Cowboys are trotting out a severely injured offensive line, and the Washington Football Team, their opponent, costs only $2,500. Washington even ranks 10th in sacks per game (2.7), so expect lots of points out of them this week.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.