After a crazy week of late-breaking coronavirus postponements, we may have to deal with some more — the Atlanta Falcons reported multiple positive cases. I would stay away from that game this week, and I’ve got some leads the hottest values in other games below.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 6!
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Last Week’s Picks
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR): 20.8 points (3.52x)
Running Back
Todd Gurley (ATL): 28 points (4.91x)
David Johnson (HOU): 12.3 points (2.36x)
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson (CAR): 22.5 points (3.81x)
Zach Pascal (IND): 3.5 points (0.76x)
Tight Ends
Drew Sample (CIN): 4.2 points (1.17x)
Last week went pretty well! I hit on half of them, and Johnson wouldn’t have burned you at 2.36. I whiffed hard on Pascal and Sample, though — I should have rolled with my honorable mentions (Greg Ward and Eric Ebron) at those spots instead. Onward and upward!
This Week’s Value Plays
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $5,900 vs. HOU
After getting banned from their practice facility and losing multiple players to the COVID list, the Tennessee Titans came out and stunted on the then-undefeated Buffalo Bills. They’ll now get a short week before playing the Texans. This game should be high-scoring, as both teams rank in the top seven for offensive pace. Tannehill is scoring at an unsustainable clip, but he’s been doing so since last season, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Roll with him and hope that Adam Humphries or Corey Davis can get healthy for Sunday’s matchup.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (NYJ): $5,100 at MIA
Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI): $5,800 at CAR
The Panthers have been a team to target with running backs since last season. They’re giving up 37.4 DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to the position, the most in the league. That includes a league-high eight rushing touchdowns to the position. Teams know that they can exploit the Panthers on the ground, and that’s precisely what the Bears will do this Sunday. Montgomery is a fantastic matchup-based play.
Myles Gaskin (MIA): $5,400 vs. NYJ
Joe Flacco isn’t the quarterback value of the week because of Miami’s pace. They are the third slowest offense in the league, and they rank sixth in average time of possession. Gaskin and the running game are vital to Miami’s clock management strategy, and we can expect them to feature their backs once they amass a lead over New York. It helps that the Jets give up the fifth-most DKPPG to the position (and the third-most rushing touchdowns). It’s also worth noting that Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch for Miami last week, which means Gaskin will now handle the red-zone work.
Honorable mention: Adrian Peterson (DET): $4,700 at JAC
Wide Receiver
Laviska Shenault (JAC): $5,200 vs. DET
The JAC/DET is going to be a popular matchup for DFS players. The projected point total for this one sits at 54.5, one of the highest totals on the slate, and neither team is playing well on defense — the Jaguars rank 31st in defensive efficiency while Detroit ranks 29th. Detroit has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and they’re giving up 1.5 touchdowns per game to the position. Their ineffective run defense should also allow Shenault to make big plays on the handful of carries he gets. Since both teams’ offenses will try to compensate for their impotent defenses, Shenault should be a prime beneficiary of the pass-heavy game script.
Denzel Mims (NYJ): $3,000 at MIA
Mims is back at practice this week. He has 96th-percentile speed, 90th-percentile burst, and a 95th-percentile catch radius. As we saw in Week 6 with Jamison Crowder and Jeff Smith, Joe Flacco can (and will) air out deep passes once the Jets are down big. If Mims can play, he could become one of Flacco’s favorite targets as the Jets desperately try to keep pace with the Dolphins. Yes, I’m still concerned about the game script, but Mims only needs to make one big play to hit value at this salary.
Honorable mention: If Mims doesn’t play, swap him out for Jeff Smith (NYJ): $3,000 at MIA
Tight End
Darren Fells (HOU): $3,800 at TEN
Fellow tight end Jordan Akins is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and I doubt that he’ll be available in Week 6. He was a limited participant on Wednesday, much like he was last Thursday and Friday before getting ruled questionable and eventually missing the game. It’s worth noting that Akins also struggled through a concussion last week. If Akins can’t play, Fells will see all of the targets for tight ends in this offense; last week, he caught both of his looks for 57 yards and a score. He’ll be a touchdown-dependent play next week, but in a bone-dry tight end market and in what should be a high-scoring game, he seems like a solid option.
Honorable mention: Logan Thomas (WAS): $3,300 at NYG
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
