Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a helpful strategy all DFS players should look to take advantage of. It can help when weighing competing lineup options for any given week. A high over/under total can clue us into contests Vegas projects to have a high combined score. More opportunities for scoring can lead to increased opportunities for fantasy points.

Small point spreads show us which games Vegas projects to be competitive. Competitive contests suggest that the game script will not force either team to abandon the run or the pass. Large point spreads, on the other hand, suggest that the team with a large lead may look to run out the clock in the second half, or in some cases rest their starters as the game winds down. For the team that is behind it means that they may be forced to abandon the run in favor of being more aggressive through the air in an effort to put points on the board quicker.

High total contests can also alert us to potential chalky plays. While analyzing Vegas odds should not be the only tool you use to decide on roster options, it should, along with a host of other variables, play a correlative factor in your decision making.

This week we will take a look at the contests with some of the highest over/under totals on the slate. These two battles are sure to have some chalky plays, but need to be dissected nonetheless.

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Matt Ryan has been a disappointment despite having one of the best arsenals of weapons in the entire NFL. Seven touchdown passes in five-games simply is not going to cut it, and the veteran signal-caller is currently the QB23 on the season. It is true that Julio has been banged up for much of the season, but Ryan was frustratingly targeting both Ridley and Gage over Julio when all three were healthy. Ryan is going to get some DFS looks due to playing a young Vikings secondary allowing the 12th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but should be more of a multi-entry stab than someone you want to get in your main or only lineup for the weekend. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks. 

Kirk Cousins has been quite the disappointment this season. No one really expected him to be a top-15 option with Stefon Diggs leaving town, but only eight touchdowns in five games is below expectations. He is the QB25 on the season, partially due to a horrendous seven interceptions, good for the second-worst mark in the league. Despite his struggles this year, there is some temptation, especially for multiple lineup setters, to stick him out there against a Falcons defense allowing the most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Heck, I may do it myself, but expectations need to be tempered. He is more of a dart despite the great matchup due to his struggles this season. The Vikings could very well just choose to lean on Alexander Mattison and the run game if they build an early lead. 

Todd Gurley has looked as good as (a fan like me) expected. Many cried that he was done, and while he is no longer that runaway RB1 in fantasy, he has been the RB14 in fantasy points per game and the RB10 in total fantasy points. Despite playing for a winless team, Gurley has scored a rushing touchdown in all but one week this season. He finally saw his reception total spike to four last week and may continue to see his role there expanded as he continues to master the nuances of the offense. His yards per carry (4.7), yards before contact (2.2/att), yards after contact (2.6/att), and broken tackle rate (6.6) are all up from last season. Minnesota has allowed the 16th most fantasy points to the running back position and could gift a big day to Gurley, especially if the Vikings fall behind. 

Dalvin Cook has been exceptional this season and heads into Week 6 as the RB4 in fantasy points per game, and the RB2 in total fantasy points. He would be an easy play this week if he was healthy, however, he is not expected to play Week 6 due to an adductor strain. That means that backup Alexander Mattison should get the bulk of the touches against Atlanta. Now while I would never go as far as to say Mattison is as good as Cook, he can do almost everything Cook can do albeit with less speed. Dalvin Cook has averaged 5.3 yards per carry this year, Mattison is not far behind at 5.0. Cook has hauled in 12 receptions at a 5.3 yards per catch average, Mattison hauled in eight receptions at a 7.1 yards per catch average. No Cook should cause Atlanta to go with more single high and two deep safety looks, something that should open up the running lanes for Mattison. Get him in at least one of your lineups this week. 

Calvin Ridley started the season scorching. He entered Week 4 as the WR1 in total fantasy points and was able to stay there despite being held catchless in Week 4. After Week 5’s 136 receiving yard effort, Ridley now has four 100 receiving yard games and one zero yard game in his five contests this year. He is tied with DeAndre Hopkins as the WR6 in fantasy points per game and figures to continue to be a favorite of Matt Ryan. 

He does still have trouble with the more exotic zone looks, but he has learned how to be the more vanilla looks more consistently. He plays for a quarterback who prefers to target the open receivers when apples are apples, so his recent play is going to get him a lot of looks this season. He is a potentially elite option against the Vikings inexperienced secondary which has relinquished the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. 

He has been banged up this season, but Julio Jones has been a disappointment even when on the field. Much of it has to do with health or Matt Ryan’s reads, but the future Hall of Famer sitting as the WR46 in fantasy points per game is highly concerning. His play has not fallen off a cliff, so hopefully, a return to health and a steady stream of targets can get him back on track against a generous Vikings secondary. 

Russell Gage started the season hot but is now the WR52 in total fantasy points and the WR68 ppg in total fantasy points. After a nine reception, 114 receiving yard effort in Week 1, Gage has been held to just two receptions in three of his other four contests. Perhaps the shoulder injury is to blame, perhaps it is Matt Ryan’s regression. Either way, Gage is more of a high upside dart than someone single lineup setters should consider. 

Despite Jefferson stealing some slot snaps, Adam Thielen is the WR4 in fantasy points per game. He has proved his doubters wrong once again and leads the NFL with six touchdowns. He is 12th with 44 targets, 13th with 29 receptions, and is 15th with 364 receiving yards. He should be an obvious strong consideration this week due to playing a horrible secondary in a game featuring one of the highest over/under totals of the week. The Falcons have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. 

Justin Jefferson leads the Minnesota Vikings in receiving yards. He is the WR35 in fantasy points per game and is the WR26 in total fantasy points. He was a massive letdown in a blowup spot against Seattle but has been a tremendous weapon that has caused some anger in Philadelphia, as most fans wanted the more well known Jefferson over the currently injured Jalen Reagor. Jefferson has another prime blowup spot against the Falcons in Week 6, but as we saw last week (3-23-0 stat line), gameflow could cause him to all but disappear. He is definitely worth an extended look, but potential chalkiness and gamescript issues need to be considered.   

Hayden Hurst has had his flashes this season but has been a massive disappointment to anyone who thought he was going to suddenly become Austin Hooper after falling behind Mark Andrews, and even Nick Boyle in Baltimore. He is the TE21 in fantasy points per game and is not a suggested option against a Vikings defense allowing the 15th fewest fantasy points to the tight end position. Eric Kendricks is not perfect, and will likely spend some time on Gurley, but I pretty much auto fade any non elite tight end against Kendricks, and will be doing the same this week. 

Kyle Rudolph is the TE35 on the season, while hotshot sophomore Irv Smith Jr. is the TE48 in total fantasy points. There is not much else to say here. Both players have been disappointments and continue to cancel each other out from a fantasy perspective. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position, so Rudolph and Smith Jr. are sure to show up in some DFS lineups this week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it has to be one of yours. 

Baker Mayfield is at a respectable nine touchdowns this season. He has thrown for just 201.6 passing yards per game, however, so he is hard to trust in DFS. He is much more talented than a mere game manager, but that has been the role he has been asked to play some games. The QB24 on the season facing a ferocious Steelers front seven is already a reason to fade, but the Steelers have surprisingly limited opposing quarterbacks to the 13th fewest fantasy points this season. 

Ben Roethlisberger is the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He has 10 touchdowns through four contests and has averaged a solid 254.5 passing yards per game on the season. He unveiled his shiny new toy in Mapletron this past weekend and is someone all DFS managers will be considering this against a suspect Browns secondary surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position.  

With Nick Chubb sidelined, Kareem Hunt will be leaned on as a workhorse. The RB10 in fantasy points per game saw 70 percent of the snaps in Week 5. He saw 23 touches to D’Ernest Johnson‘s nine touches, and the early snap and touch counts indicate that Hunt will indeed be handed a larger role than Chubb got with Hunt behind him. This should come as no surprise but is good information as DFS managers like to look at both floors and ceilings when weighing options. Hunt should be involved regardless of gamescript, making him an enticing option despite facing a Steelers defense limiting opposing running backs to the fifth fewest fantasy points per game. 

James Conner has been rolling. He has sent Benny Snell back to pure backup land and is the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He is one of only four running backs with back-to-back games of 100 rushing yards per game and is a solid option despite facing off against a Browns defense allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to the running back position.

Odell Beckham Jr. parlayed a massive Week 4 into being the WR16 in fantasy points per game. He is averaging a career-low 58.8 receiving yards per game on the season, with his 4.2 receptions per game also representing a career-low. If the Steelers build a lead as expected, OBJ should see a larger workload than he has seen this season. Pittsburgh has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, making OBJ an option despite his inconsistent play. 

Jarvis Landry has been a victim of the new game manager offense and is the WR51 in fantasy points per game, and the WR36 in total fantasy points. He is worth a look in the plus matchup, but will probably not be a priority play for those looking for a Browns stack. 

The WR10 in fantasy points per game is Chase ‘Mapletron’ Claypool. He absolutely exploded in Week 5 with three receiving touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown, and should have permanently passed James Washington on the depth chart in the process. Claypool is a tough cover if you limit him to what he is able to do well, and the Steelers are doing just that. Weaknesses be damned, play the kid to his strengths and let him ball. He is likely going to be a chalky play due to people chasing, but is still worth a look against a secondary that will struggle to stop him. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged a solid 5.25 receptions per game but has mustered just 47 receiving yards per contest. His three touchdowns have salvaged his fantasy line, but he should get back on track once he gets over his knee issue. JuJu may see Denzel Ward travel with him this weekend, so he may be more of an option for multiple lineup managers. The paper matchup is tasty, so he is worth a look against a Browns defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. 

Diontae Johnson is the WR76 on the season in total fantasy points but has been knocked from games twice this season, including this past week when he left with a back injury. He missed practice on Wednesday, so keep that in mind if you plan to plug him in as a contrarian play. Johnson has averaged seven receptions for 74.5 receiving yards per game in the contests he has finished. Both marks would lead the team. 

The TE27 on the season, Austin Hooper just has not had the chemistry with Baker Mayfield that he shared with Matt Ryan. He has averaged 3.4 receptions for 30.6 receiving yards per game. He is a fade against the Steelers and will remain one until he starts to show some consistency. 

The TE23, Eric Ebron has been a disappointment this season in redraft, but DFS managers know that he has been stepping up his play as of late. He has averaged five receptions for 47.5 receiving yards per game and 0.5 touchdowns over his last two contests, after averaging just two receptions for 30.8 receiving yards per game in his first two contests. He was one of the stars of training camp due to his instantaneous chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger, so it is likely only a matter of time before he enters the TE1 conversation based on matchup. With a Browns defense relinquishing the eighth-most fantasy points to the tight end position on tap, Ebron could be someone worth taking an extended look at when building your lineups.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.