Air Yard Analysis: Week 3 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to Week 4! This column is the third installment of Air Yard Analysis, and as a refresher, I’ll re-hash my explanation of air yards’ significance:

Fantasy football is a game of volume. Snaps, carries, targets, receptions, yards, red-zone looks — all of these reflect the opportunities a player receives in a game. While it’s up to the player to capitalize on their chances, a player’s efficiency tends to vary more than their opportunities.

Air yards are another volume stat that’s crucial to understanding a player’s value. Air yards measure the total distance that a thrown ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the player in question, and they help us to understand which targets are worth more than others.

For example, a wide receiver who earned six targets and eight air yards is far less valuable than one who earned four targets and 92 air yards, even if the second player failed to catch all of their looks. That’s because a best-possible six receptions for eight yards gives you only 6.8 PPR points, while four catches for 92 yards would let you 13.2 PPR points. That’s a higher ceiling, and the second player could even drop a pass and still out-perform the first player.

Each week, I’ll go read through and analyze every team’s air yards to give you my take. I’ll include every player with a target in my charts, and I’ll highlight which players are leading the league in each stat.

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Arizona Cardinals

 
Takeaways: Isabella’s long aDOT foreshadowed a big performance this week with Kirk out, and it came — but his aDOT was surprisingly low … Hopkins is the clear alpha receiver in this offense and is a locked-in WR1 with his high share of targets and air yards … Edmonds’ positive air yards indicate use beyond the line of scrimmage, and that’s a green flag for him in Week 4, as the Panthers allow the third-most receiving yards to running backs.

Atlanta Falcons

 
Takeaways: Ridley led the league in air yards this week, and he’s pacing the league in air yards for the full season — hope you listened to Kyle Yates and me about him before the season … Julio Jones’ absence created quite the void in this offense, as did Russell Gage’s mid-game injury … Zaccheaus is the next man up at perimeter receiver for the Falcons, while Powell was the backup at slot — since neither Jones nor Gage are severely injured, you can leave them on waivers for now, but they’re names to know in this high-volume passing attack … Hurst didn’t get used nearly as much as I’d expected with all of the injuries, and that might be a sign to fade tight ends against the Bears.

Baltimore Ravens

 
Takeaways: Lamar Jackson tossed lots of deeper passes against the Chiefs, but his receivers struggled to bring them in … the Ravens don’t play well when making up a deficit, but Andrews and Brown’s air yard shares make them the biggest beneficiaries of pass-heavy game scripts … Dobbins’ use beyond the line of scrimmage was a good sign.

Buffalo Bills

 
Takeaways: John Brown went down with a soft tissue injury and Jalen Ramsey covered Stefon Diggs, so the Bills’ distribution of air yards looks quite different than usual this week … both Brown and Diggs fell out of the league’s top-10 for air yards as a result, but they’ll bounce back … slot receiver Beasley should end up getting more targets if Brown can’t go next week, but don’t count out Brown’s backup on the perimeter, Gabriel Davis, who could be a boom-or-bust WR4 … Singletary continues to get used past the line of scrimmage, and that makes him the best back to roster in this offense in PPR formats.

Carolina Panthers

 
Takeaways: Moore remains in the league’s top-10 for air yards despite the Panthers having found themselves in a pass-unfriendly game script — he only caught two passes, but the volume is there for him … Anderson’s aDOT has fallen off a bit since the start of the season, but it should bounce back upward soon … Matt Rhule and Joe Brady aren’t using Samuel like he was last year, and his dramatic falloff in air yards hasn’t been discussed enough.

Chicago Bears

 
Takeaways: The Bears didn’t target as many different players this week, so we’ve got a much more manageable list … Robinson is the alpha receiver in this offense, and his shorter looks make him the best option in PPR leagues … that said, Miller’s long-distance usage gives him some solid value in standard-scoring leagues … Ginn was a healthy scratch in Week 2, so it was surprising to see him rocket into relevance for the Bears … Mooney is a great deep threat, and he should be added as a depth option in dynasty leagues (if he isn’t already on a roster).

Cincinnati Bengals

 
Takeaways: Uh… the air yard signals were good for A.J. Green before, but now, not so much … his second-most air yards on the year only underscore how inefficient he’s been at this point … Higgins and Boyd got more of Joe Burrow’s longer-range looks this week, and both of them looked great … Higgins scored twice, which won’t happen every week, but the air yards support him as a breakout candidate … Tate looked good in his return, and he got the looks that Mike Thomas had been getting … Drew Sample completely disappeared in Week 3 — look for a rebound, but temper your expectations.

Cleveland Browns

 
Takeaways: Cleveland’s offense is run-first, so there aren’t a ton of air yards or targets to go around here … that said, the air yards that do exist go to Beckham, while Landry is force-fed shorter targets and must convert them into longer plays … Beckham is nothing more than a high-upside, touchdown-dependent WR3, and you’ll need to pick and choose when to use him based on game script — fortunately, the Browns get the Cowboys this week, and their high-scoring offense and vulnerable defense make him a fantastic play.

Dallas Cowboys

 
Takeaways: I wrote last week that Gallup’s share of air yards made him a great buy-low candidate, and lo and behold, I was right! … Gallup led the team in receiving yards against the Seahawks, and while he might be inconsistent this season, he’ll be a great high-upside option if he keeps getting this kind of usage … Cooper remains top-five in the league for total air yards despite his single-digit aDOT — that’s something no other play can say … Lamb had a down week, but his share of air yards mean that he’s still a decent option in this offense … Cedrick Wilson’s breakout performance does make this a crowded receiving corps, however.

Denver Broncos

 
Takeaways: A week after Hamler posted triple-digit air yards, he came crashing back down to Earth with just 43 of them … Denver’s quarterback situation is quite grim, and even against the Jets, it’s hard to get excited about any of their playmakers … that said, Fant’s short-range aDOT, the Jets’ inability to tackle, and his skill at breaking away from would-be tacklers combine to make him an intriguing option, especially with him getting such a high share of the air yards without Courtland Sutton around.

Detroit Lions

 
Takeaways: Golladay returned to his rightful place atop the Lions’ receiving corps this week, and he should be their air yards leader moving forward … Hockenson has earned a surprisingly large share of this offense last Sunday, and he’s a good bet to keep things rolling against the Saints’ league-worst tight end defense … Amendola and Jones have a ton of air yards thus far, but Golladay’s return dramatically decreases their role in this offense — Jones is a boom-or-bust WR3/4 with Golladay around, while Amendola is a low-end WR4 in PPR formats.

Green Bay Packers

 
Takeaways: Without Davante Adams, this receiving corps played much better than I had anticipated … Lazard picked the slack and dominated this offense, helping the Packers to a nice victory over the Saints … MVS has played like one of the league’s best deep threats, and with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the football, he’s a high-upside but touchdown-dependent WR3/4 … Sternberger finally showed up for this offense, but despite his larger share of air yards, Tonyan and Lewis were the two tight ends who scored for Green Bay … Jones’ positive air yards prove that the Packers intend to feature him beyond the line of scrimmage, and that bolsters his fantasy value.

Houston Texans

 
Takeaways: Okay, maybe I should stop prognosticating about a receiving corps this disorganized — I retract my excitement about newfound consistency for Will Fuller … that said, the Texans had a tough opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers, so we should get a better sense of how Bill O’Brien wants to run this offense soon … the Texans get the Vikings’ embarrassing secondary this week, and so any of these receivers could have big days — but neither their air yards nor their aDOTs give us a good indication as to who it’ll be.

Indianapolis Colts

 
Takeaways: Pittman went down for the count against the Jets this week, and that leaves Pascal, Hilton, and Alie-Cox as the best options to roster in this offense … Jack Doyle technically started this week, but he failed to log a target and has been outplayed by Alie-Cox … if Pascal can manage to maintain his deeper aDOT, then he’s a much better fantasy pickup than I had originally thought.

Jacksonville Jaguars

 
Takeaways: The Jaguars struggled against Miami on Thursday, and a bunch of desperation lobs to Chris Conley were the result … the absence of D.J. Chark seems to have hit this offense hard, so his status is something to monitor for all of Jacksonville’s pass-catchers … it took an injury to Chark for us to see Westbrook make the active roster, so he’s an easy drop if you haven’t dropped him already … Shenault did not get the deeper looks that some analysts had anticipated, and with both Conley and Chark still in this offense, it might be time to dial the hype back a bit.

Kansas City Chiefs

 
Takeaways: Wow, Hardman — he hadn’t earned a lot of Patrick Mahomes’ attention so far, but he absolutely blew up in Week 3 and is a boom-or-bust option in this offense moving forward … Watkins looks like a high-volume, short-yardage threat, and he found ways to get open for Mahomes on Monday … Hill is still a locked in WR1, and his YAC prowess makes up for him being outside the top-10 in total air yards … and, of course, offensive tackle Eric Fisher makes an appearance.

Las Vegas Raiders

 
Takeaways: Renfrow had disappeared behind Henry Ruggs, but for as long as Ruggs is out, he’s a great option at WR3 … he won’t maintain this degree of offensive control, however, as Darren Waller will bounce back from his injury at some point … that said, the Bills are extremely vulnerable to slot receivers, so Renfrow is a great plug-and-play receiver this week … Bryan Edwards’ injury frees up a good chunk of this offense that’ll likely end up split by both of those two receiving weapons, although Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones could see additional usage as well.

Los Angeles Chargers

 
Takeaways: Allen has looked very good with Justin Herbert under center … even though he didn’t see many deep looks, Allen’s 19 targets explain why he earned the fifth-most total air yards this week … with KJ Hill active, Mike Williams’ usage took a pretty big hit, and he hasn’t had a good game with Herbert yet … Henry continues to be a consistent, high-volume TE1 this season, and he’s avoided the injury bug thus far … why the Chargers aren’t passing to Ekeler beyond the line of scrimmage is beyond me.

Los Angeles Rams

 
Takeaways: There aren’t a ton of air yards to go around in this run-first, play-action offense … it seems that Sean McVay has assembled something that Jared Goff can handle, and preventing him from taking deep looks has been a key part of that formula … while Woods is seeing plenty of targets, he hasn’t seen many air yards since Week 1, and that could cap his fantasy value.

Miami Dolphins

 
Takeaways: I’ll stop making excuses for Preston Williams after the Dolphins play the Seahawks’ vulnerable secondary — if he can’t post double-digit fantasy points then, he’s little more than a low-end WR4/5 … the Dolphins didn’t have to pass a ton to beat the Jaguars, but Parker and Gesicki led the way offensively … Gesicki is now the team’s overall leader in air yards on the season … despite his low number of air yards, Isaiah Ford’s high number of targets out of the slot make him an intruiging speculative pickup.

Minnesota Vikings

 
Takeaways: Jefferson finally had his breakout game, and oh boy, it was impressive — he turned 128 air yards into 175 total receiving yards … the Vikings’ former WR2, Bisi Johnson, played just five offensive snaps and doesn’t seem like a serious threat to Jefferson moving forward … the rookie wideout could start to see the same level of volume that Stefon Diggs had in this offense, which would limit Adam Thielen’s fantasy utility … despite some preseason speculation, neither of Minnesota’s tight ends have much fantasy relevance.

New England Patriots

 
Takeaways: The Patriots returned to a run-heavy game script in Week 3, and its effects on the teams’ total air yards are quite clear … Harry and Byrd will only ever be fantasy-relevant in pass-heavy game scripts, and fortunately for them, that’s how the Patriots may have to play things against the Chiefs this week … Edelman is a solid WR2/WR3 in PPR formats, but, like Harry and Byrd, his usage will ebb and flow due to the game script.

New Orleans Saints

 
Takeaways: Drew Brees hasn’t looked good without Michael Thomas … although Thomas should be back in Week 4, Jared Cook might not be available, and his absence would mean continued fantasy relevance for the Saints’ depth receivers (Smith and Sanders) … that said, there isn’t a clear preferred option between the two behind Thomas.

New York Giants

 
Takeaways: The Giants didn’t do much of anything offensively in their first game without both Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley … Slayton controlled the team’s air yards, but his upside is capped by Daniel Jones’ inability to maintain possession — you can’t score touchdowns when your quarterback keeps giving the ball away … Tate and Engram took over Shepard’s work in the short-yardage game … I’m intrigued that the Giants used Gallman and Lewis beyond the line of scrimmage, but not intrigued enough to fit either of them into my fantasy rosters.

New York Jets

 
Takeaways: This team is a complete mess, and the names on this list are enough to prove it … I said it last week, and I’ll say it again — if you’re consistently targeting Frank Gore beyond the line of scrimmage, something has gone terribly wrong for your franchise … once Crowder returns, he’ll control Sam Darnold’s short-yardage looks … Hogan is the de-facto mid-to-deep range threat in this offense if he plays, but it’s hard to get excited about any of Darnold’s weapons other than Crowder.

Philadelphia Eagles

 
Takeaways: Reagor last week, Jackson and Goedert this week — the Eagles can’t catch a break … if Jackson has to miss any time, then Alshon Jeffery would be the biggest beneficiary if he can get healthy … Greg Ward led the Eagles in targets last week, but his short-yardage role means he’ll need lots volume to keep posting similar numbers — he’ll get that in the short term, but he’s not much more than a stop-gap option … Sanders’ positive air yards prove that he’s a valuable asset in PPR formats, and he’ll only see more of these looks with the Eagles’ banged-up supporting cast.

Pittsburgh Steelers

 
Takeaways: Johnson led this team in air yards despite exiting early with a concussion … he’s the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh despite what Smith-Schuster’s fantasy numbers suggest … with Johnson out, Washington drew the largest number of targets and the most air yards, and he’ll be in line for lots of usage if Johnson can’t play this week … Smith-Schuster will still need to make plays after the catch to hit fantasy value, but if Johnson can’t go and the Titans are without key defensive pieces due to positive test results, then he’s a low-end WR1.

San Francisco 49ers

 
Takeaways: Kyle Shanahan excels at getting his running backs involved in the passing game, and all of them had positive air yards in Week 3 … Aiyuk looked great after a disappointing Week 2, and he took over this passing offense from Kendrick Bourne … the impending return of Deebo Samuel caps Aiyuk’s upside, but Aiyuk’s usage in the running game will give him a steadier floor than some expect, and he’ll retain fantasy value even when Samuel gets back.

Seattle Seahawks

 
Takeaways: Metcalf and Lockett both ranked in the top-10 for air yards this week, and that’s a testament to how much Russell Wilson is cooking … Metcalf should overtake A.J. Green for the second spot next week, and he’s proven himself to be a high-upside WR2 so far this year … Lockett scored three touchdowns last Sunday while nearly doubling his air yards for the season — he won’t see this usage every week, but he’s got WR1 upside against weak secondaries.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
Takeaways: It’s weird to see a player not named Godwin or Evans on top of this list, but here we are … given Godwin’s recent injury, Miller looks like a fantastic waiver-wire pickup if he’s still available … I don’t know if I would start him against the Chargers, however, as their secondary is still quite strong even after the loss of Chris Harris — if Miller gets Godwin’s slot role and Desmond King lines up against him, that could be a recipe for fantasy disappointment … Gronk did more than just block on Sunday, as he got plenty of short-yardage looks from Tom Brady — that’s something monitor with Godwin hurt, especially if he’s on waivers in your league.

Tennessee Titans

 
Takeaways: Kalif Raymond took a couple of deep targets for monster gains on Sunday, and while he won’t do that every week, he’s an intriguing pickup in dynasty leagues … A.J. Brown should inherit those targets once he returns, however … Smith looks like the best receiver in this offense while Brown is out, but Humphries and Davis have been seeing enough volume to remain fantasy-relevant.

Washington Football Team

 
Takeaways: Ugh — there are going to be a ton of unrealized air yards in Washington until the team moves on from Dwayne Haskins (or Haskins improves) … Inman saw a ton of air yards in Week 1, and with Steven Sims hurt, it’s no surprise to see him as the second-ranked player here … Thomas ranks fifth among tight ends in expected fantasy points (and ranks first in points below expectations), and both his air yards and targets support him as a breakout candidate — trust the process and keep rostering Thomas until it comes.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.