Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
QBs
Matthew Stafford: When some drafted Stafford as the QB12 (or around there) and thought they were getting a top-five guy based on last year’s limited sample size, they didn’t expect this. He’s currently the QB19 in fantasy, though missing Kenny Golladay has not been great. He’s going to bounce back, though he was never going to be a top-five quarterback. He gets his best matchup of the year here, but oddly enough, the Cardinals defense as a whole has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opponents. Crazy, right? That’s likely due to the competition, as the 49ers and Washington don’t put up very many fantasy points. Suddenly, the Cardinals are getting to the quarterback, as they’ve generated a sack on 9.6 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league. The pressure is likely a big part of the reason they’ve allowed just a 57.6 percent completion rate, which ranks second to only the Steelers. Still, we can’t forget what this defense looked like last year when they allowed 38 passing touchdowns and a 70 percent completion rate in the same exact scheme. The addition of Isaiah Simmons was a big one, but we can’t pretend his three tackles are the reason for all that change. We essentially can’t rely too much on a small sample from 2020 and oddsmakers agree. Stafford threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns when these teams met back in Week 1 of last year, finishing as the QB4 that week. If Golladay plays, Stafford deserves a bump into low-end QB1 territory. If Golladay sits again, he’s still in the streaming conversation, but more of a high-end QB2.
Kyler Murray: He took care of business last week, racking up 67 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, which now puts him on pace for 1,264 yards and 18 touchdowns. Not bad, eh? That’s good because he’s still averaging just 6.84 yards per attempt through the air. By comparison, Mitch Trubisky has averaged 6.69 yards per attempt through his career. But as long as Murray continues to grind out fantasy points with his legs, we should be happy. The Lions have actually done a solid job against mobile quarterbacks, limiting their ceiling under Matt Patricia. Going back to last year, they held Murray to 13 yards, Dak Prescott to 18 yards, and Daniel Jones to 13 yards on the ground. Where they’ve been demolished is through the air, as they’ve now allowed 13 of the last 18 quarterbacks they’ve played to throw for multiple touchdowns, including seven quarterbacks with three-plus touchdowns (Trubisky three times). Murray himself was one of just five quarterbacks who’ve failed to average at least 7.19 yards per attempt against them in that time, though it should be noted that it was his first NFL start. Given the fact that oddsmakers have set their team total at a ridiculous 30.0 points, Murray should be trusted as a high-end QB1 in a high-scoring game.
RBs
Adrian Peterson, D’Andre Swift, and Kerryon Johnson: Through two weeks, here are the snap counts between these three: Swift 54, Peterson 39, Johnson 39. Gross. Here are the opportunity counts: Peterson 24, Swift 18, Johnson 16. Again, gross. Even worse is that Swift and Johnson have gotten two carries inside the 10-yard-line while Peterson has just one, which seems like it should be Peterson’s role. This is going to be an ugly backfield to predict every week, though Swift should eventually establish himself as the top option. The Cardinals have surprisingly not allowed a running back more than 56 yards on the ground through two weeks. They limited Raheem Mostert to just 56 yards on 15 carries, though he did rattle off 95 yards and a touchdown through the air. Swift is clearly the preferred receiving option, as he’s been in on 39 pass snaps, while Peterson and Johnson have combined for 33. Running backs have accounted for 50 percent of fantasy production against the Cardinals, which ranks as the third-highest in the league, so if the Lions are going to come anywhere close to their 24.5-point implied total, someone is likely to have value. Swift would be my choice, but as you can see, there’s no guarantee. Treat him as a low-end RB3 and hope he finds his way into the end zone or sees quite a few targets. Peterson is getting the most touches but if he’s not locked into goal-line work, he won’t offer much upside at all. He’s nothing more than a RB4 who’s got a limited ceiling. I wouldn’t want to start Johnson considering the 8.0 opportunities per game.
Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds: The Week 1 usage was a little worrisome, but in the end, Drake has now out-touched Edmonds 40-15 through two weeks, which makes this a 73/27 split. Drake is the workhorse we thought he’d be. The Lions are clearly having issues stopping the run right now, as they’ve allowed a massive 353 yards on 51 carries against the Packers and Bears. The loss of Damon “Snacks” Harrison was always going to be an issue and it’s not like they can bring help down into the box, as their secondary is aching. The 6.92 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the most in the NFL, as is the 441 total yards they’ve allowed to running backs. When you look at that combined with the 30-point implied team total for the Cardinals, Drake owners should be dancing. If you go back to the game these two teams played last year, you’d see David Johnson with 137 total yards and a touchdown, finishing as the RB5 on the week. Drake should be in the RB1 conversation this week and someone you’re using in DFS. Edmonds is strictly a handcuff, though he’ll have a role in games the Cardinals fall behind as a pass catcher. He’s not someone you should rely on for more than 5-8 touches per game, though.
WRs
Kenny Golladay: It appears he’ll be back in Week 3 based on early week reports. As is the case with any player coming off a multi-week soft tissue injury, there’s a bit more risk associated with them. Coming back to a matchup with the Cardinals isn’t a bad thing, though it’s also not as good as some think. A league-low 34.4 percent of skill-position players fantasy points have come from wide receivers against the Cardinals. That number was at 45.7 percent in 2019, which was below league average as well, though it certainly helped that they allowed a million points to tight ends. Golladay caught 4-of-9 passes for 42 yards and a touchdown in their Week 1 meeting last year, though that was without Patrick Peterson, who was serving a suspension. The Cardinals now have a starting cornerback duo of Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick on the perimeter, which should be considered above average. Through two games, the duo has combined to allow 9/113/1 on 18 targets. Volume was paramount against this defense last year, as they allowed 19 receivers to score more than 13.1 PPR points, and 14 of them had nine or more targets. Oddly enough, they didn’t allow a single multi-touchdown game to a wide receiver. Golladay should be in lineups if he’s playing but think of him as more of a WR2/3 in his first game back. *Update* Golladay was limited throughout the week in practice and is listed as questionable. He’s a risk/reward play this week, as we would’ve ideally seen him tally at least one full practice before trusting him.
Marvin Jones: Considering Golladay was out the first two weeks, you can say that it’s been a disappointing start to the season for Jones, who has just 78 yards through two games. He has the same number of targets as Amendola and just one more than the rookie Quintez Cephus. The Cardinals haven’t been a very giving team to wide receivers thus far, as the 46.9 PPR points they’ve allowed to them is the lowest in the league. It certainly helps that they’ve played just one receiver who was a legitimate threat (Terry McLaurin), and he was able to post 125 yards and a touchdown. Last year, against this defense (without Patrick Peterson, who was suspended), Jones caught 4-of-4 passes for 56 yards. That’s an interesting number because Jones has not topped that number in each of his last six games. He’s becoming more and more volatile, but when the total for a game is 54.5, you want to believe he’s going to get a slice of that pie. He’s a risk/reward WR3/4 this week.
Danny Amendola: After catching five passes for 81 yards in a tough matchup against the Bears, Amendola let deep-leaguers down with his two-catch, 21-yard performance in Week 2, though he did see seven targets for the second straight week. We should probably move on considering the lack of ceiling, but it’s hard to ignore that he went for 7/104/1 against this defensive scheme last year. The Lions chose to target him 13 times in that game. The Cardinals have shifted things around and now have second-year cornerback Byron Murphy in the slot, which is a completely different position for a cornerback. Through his first 18 games in the pros, he’s allowed 77 receptions for 769 yards and 10 touchdowns on 113 targets. That’s more touchdowns allowed than anyone else in the league. If you need a last-minute WR4/5 due to injuries, I’m willing to go back to Amendola in a pinch.
DeAndre Hopkins: You have to love the fact that Kyler Murray knows where the money is made, as he’s targeted Hopkins 25 times through two games. When targeting Hopkins, he’s averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. When he targets anyone else, he’s averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. The Lions cornerback unit is in trouble, as they traded away top cornerback Darius Slay this offseason, then lost another starting cornerback (Justin Coleman) to injured reserve. Meanwhile, Desmond Trufant is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury. They drafted Jeff Okudah with the No. 3 overall pick, but he didn’t look ready in his first NFL game, allowing seven catches for 121 yards on 10 targets in coverage. Based on alignment, it seems Hopkins will see the most of second-year cornerback Amani Oruwariye, who’s allowed a 79.3 percent catch-rate and a touchdown every 9.7 targets in his coverage. Start Hopkins and expect big results.
Christian Kirk: Is it time to drop him? I think we’ve probably reached that point, though it depends on who you’re dropping him for. He’s seen just nine targets through two weeks when Murray’s thrown the ball 78 times. That amounts to a 11.5-percent target share. Kirk is expected to see the Lions rookie cornerback Jeff Okudah in coverage the most this week, and that can be considered a good thing after he struggled in his NFL debut last week, allowing seven catches for 121 yards in his coverage. It may have been rookie first game jitters, or he could still be working his way back from his hamstring injury. Whatever the case, it would take a real leap of faith to start Kirk this week after his miserable stat lines from the first two weeks, so he’s just a boom-or-bust WR5. *Update* Kirk has been ruled out this week with a groin injury.
Larry Fitzgerald: We’ve now gone over a span of 12 games where Fitzgerald has topped 56 yards just once and has caught two touchdowns over his last 15 games. He’s a stable presence over the middle of the field and his team is implied for 30 points, so we should at least consider him. The Lions have Darryl Roberts covering the slot with Justin Coleman on IR, which isn’t really much of a downgrade. He’s been in the league for five years now and has never allowed a 100 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of a full season. He was targeted just one time by Aaron Rodgers last week and did allow 30 yards on it, but that was it. Against the Bears, he saw five targets and allowed just one catch for 22 yards. I wouldn’t consider this a week to rely on Fitzgerald, though he may have a scoring opportunity with that high team total.
TEs
T.J. Hockenson: It’s been a promising start to the season for Hockenson considering he’s caught all nine of his targets for 118 yards and a touchdown, but why are they limiting the number of targets he’s getting? The biggest game of his career came against this Cardinals team last year when he pounced on them for 6/131/1 on nine targets. Those were the good ol’ days when we could start any tight end we wanted against the Cardinals. This year, it’s been different. They’ve allowed 4/44/0 to George Kittle through essentially one half, and then allowed just 4/26/0 to Logan Thomas last week. You don’t want to completely change your mind on the small sample size, but it’s clear they’ve improved, as they allowed 13 tight ends to finish as top-10 options last year. The 4.94 yard per target they’ve allowed to tight ends so far is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. I’m still willing to trust Hockenson as a low-end TE1 considering the expected scoring volume in this game, combined with his stellar efficiency.
Dan Arnold: I guess you can say it’s good news that Arnold has six targets through two games, as that puts him on pace for 48 over the course of a 16-game season, which is double what the leading Cardinals tight end had last year (24). But that doesn’t do anything for us from a fantasy standpoint, as they’ve amounted to 4.1 and 4.6 PPR point performances. The Lions have already allowed two tight end touchdowns, though they’re a bit fluky, as the 3.86 yards per target they’ve allowed (third lowest in NFL) is a more telling stat. You shouldn’t be trusting Arnold in season-long leagues. If anything, he’s a very cheap tight end to stack with Murray in tournaments, though I can’t do it myself.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
QBs
Tom Brady: After going 10 straight years with an interception rate of 2.0 percent or less, Brady has a 4.2 percent interception rate through two games with the Bucs. It’s the same as his touchdown rate. His 6.4 yards per attempt is the worst he’s had since 2002. His 228.0 yards per game is the lowest since 2006. It’s safe to say Brady hasn’t lived up to his reputation just yet, and one of the most worrisome parts is that one of his games was against the Panthers, a team he should’ve dismantled. Starting for a new team in this offseason was always going to be tough, but no one expected these struggles. The Broncos are a team that’s dealt with a lot of injuries and it’s changed how we view them as a matchup. Both their top edge rusher (Von Miller) and cornerback (A.J. Bouye) will not be on the field. They’re generating just a 2.3 percent sack rate and have allowed back-to-back 18-plus point quarterback performances to Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger, though neither of them averaged more than 7.59 yards per attempt. The last time Brady played against a Vic Fangio defense was in 2018 when he threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns, though that was obviously with the Patriots. There are clearly some kinks to be worked out with the Bucs offense, making Brady just a middling QB2 in a matchup that should’ve produced results.
Jeff Driskel: With Drew Lock out for a while, Driskel appears to be the starter, though the team did sign Blake Bortles this week. Driskel looked good in Week 2 considering he was playing against the Steelers defense, throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns. The downside is that he lost his No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, who was announced as out for the year. But the truth is that Driskel has played in four games over the last two years and has produced 17-plus fantasy points in three of them. He’s rushed for at least 20 yards in six of his eight starts in the NFL, so he has some mobility. The Bucs matchup isn’t as good as it used to be, as they’ve held both Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater to fewer than 15 fantasy points in each of the first two weeks. We started to see shades of a good defense down the stretch last year, as the Bucs have now allowed just three of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played to hit 15-plus fantasy points. No quarterback rushed for more than 38 yards against them last year, so it’s not wise to bet on Driskel getting much going on the ground, either. We may have some streaming potential with Driskel if he remains the starter, but I wouldn’t trust him in this matchup.
RBs
Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette: It appeared that Jones may have lost the starting job last week. It’s a shame because it was almost as if the Bucs were looking for a reason, but he gave them one when he botched the handoff leading to a turnover. Bruce Arians said after the game that he’s not planning on giving the starting job to Fournette, and that he likes him to come into the game later and finish teams off. This could very easily become a Peyton Barber/Jones situation from last year where we never seemingly know which one to start. For now, it appears that Jones hasn’t lost all hope, but he’s on thin ice every week, which can’t be good for his mental state entering a game. The Broncos have allowed 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games to open the season, as both Derrick Henry and James Conner were able to get there. That’s a big change from last year when they allowed two 100-yard rushers all season. Oddly enough, Fournette was one of them when he rattled off 225 yards on 29 carries in their Week 4 matchup. The bottom line with this matchup is that we have a lack of confidence in which running back to trust. Jones appears to be the 1A but he presents so much risk that he can’t be played as anything more than a low-end RB3 with tons of risk. Meanwhile, Fournette is going to get some touches, though how many depends on if Jones screws something up. Fournette should be considered a high-end RB4 who has some upside, sure, but also has a five-touch floor if Jones is running hot.
Melvin Gordon: Considering the matchups he had over the first two weeks, Gordon has played well and currently sits as the RB12 in PPR formats. With Phillip Lindsay out for a few weeks, he should continue to get the 18-21 touches he has over the first two games. Unfortunately, he has a meeting with the Bucs on deck. The stats will tell you that they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs on the year, but that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story. Since Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles took over in Tampa, they’ve allowed just 1,027 yards on 347 carries. I’ll save you the math – that’s 2.96 yards per carry, easily the lowest mark in the NFL. They have, however, allowed the most fantasy points through the air to running backs in 2020, as the Saints and Panthers backfields have turned in 40.8 PPR points through the air alone. Rewind that for a minute and think… that’s Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. Meanwhile Gordon has seen three targets in each of his two games, so he’s not on that level. Still, he’s a three-down back who’s getting 80 percent of the touches, so even in a tough matchup, he should be considered a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. It certainly doesn’t help that oddsmakers have set the Broncos team total to just 18.8 points. *Update* Lindsay did return to practice on Friday but is still listed as doubtful for this week’s game.
WRs
Mike Evans: You had to know Evans was going to get peppered with targets against the Panthers when Godwin was announced as out, right? What was somewhat shocking was that Evans lined up in the slot on 47 percent of his routes, something that’s really been unheard of. With Godwin back, Evans will move back to a near full-time perimeter role. With A.J. Bouye out of the lineup, the Broncos are starting slot cornerback Bryce Callahan on the perimeter alongside rookie Michael Ojemudia. Through two games, that duo has allowed 18-of-25 passing for 251 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage. Callahan is 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds. Evans moves back and forth, so he’ll see a mix of them both, but he can with either matchup. There’s zero reason to fade Evans this week when you consider the matchup, even if Brady hasn’t looked great through two games. Start Evans as a borderline WR1 once again this week.
Chris Godwin: After missing the game last Sunday, Godwin was cleared in the concussion protocol on Monday, so he’s good to go. He’ll return to a matchup with undrafted rookie Essang Bassey. Through two games, he’s seen six targets and none of them have hit the ground. They’ve only gone for 45 yards, as teams haven’t felt the need to push the ball downfield against this defense. The Bucs can really pick their poison this week this week, as Evans’ cornerback matchup is just as good as Godwin’s. But going by the fact that the Broncos have allowed just 11.2 yards per reception is an indicator that Godwin’s role may be more valuable. You’re starting both of them, obviously, so the hope is that they use this game to boost the confidence of Brady and his receivers, and that they both can produce top-20 numbers.
Scott Miller: His role didn’t grow with Godwin out of the lineup, as he still played on the perimeter while they moved Mike Evans into the slot almost half the time. We actually saw Justin Watson play more snaps than Miller in Week 2, though it was negligible. But going from six targets down to three targets is less than ideal when we’re talking about a second-year sixth-round pick. We’ve watched two quarterbacks throw the ball 40-plus times, so we can’t ignore Miller, but he’s also the third option at wide receiver behind two guys who happen to have great matchups. Miller is not a recommended start for the time being, as there’s too much uncertainty.
Jerry Jeudy: He’s instantly the best wide receiver on this team with Courtland Sutton out for the year, though he also just lost his starting quarterback. The good news is that Jeff Driskel was competent when asked to play in relief last week, throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers tough defense. The Bucs defense is no walk in the park, either. They’ve continually gotten better and have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers through two weeks despite playing against the Saints and Panthers. Now, to be fair, any wide receiver who’s seen more than five targets against them has finished with 100-plus receiving yards (D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson). Jeudy has seen 15 targets through two games, so with Sutton out, that number should only rise as he gains more experience. He’s running 77 percent of his routes from the slot, which means he’ll see second-year cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting the most. That’s a good thing, as he’s allowed a 74.1 percent catch-rate in his coverage over his 18 games of experience, including four touchdowns on 81 targets. The Bucs best cornerback is Carlton Davis, who won’t see Jeudy more than 20 percent of the time. There’s risk with a backup under center, but Jeudy should be able to deliver competent WR3/4 numbers in this game with upside for more.
K.J. Hamler: In his first NFL game, Hamler ran more routes than any other Broncos receiver. He’s been mixed in the slot as well as the perimeter, though he’s running the majority of them on the perimeter. That’s a bit concerning, as the Bucs best cornerback Carlton Davis plays there, but it’s worth noting that Davis has 4.53-second speed while Hamler ran a 4.27-second 40-yard dash in pre-Combine testing. The Bucs did allow 14 pass plays of 40-plus yards last year, which ranked as the fifth most, so there’s a chance Hamler gets behind the defense. If he keeps getting seven targets like he did in Week 2, Hamler is going to be someone to look at as a boom-or-bust WR5-type option.
TEs
O.J. Howard and Rob Gronkowski: This is a timeshare, plain and simple. While Gronkowski has played 25 more snaps, he’s only run five more routes than Howard. For the second straight game, Howard has out-targeted and out-produced him, though that didn’t mean much in Week 2. Still, if you’re considering one, it has to be Howard. Unfortunately, this isn’t a very attractive matchup. The Broncos have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends, thanks to two Titans tight end touchdowns, but if you look closer, they’ve allowed just 5.18 yards per target to them, which ranks as the seventh-lowest number in the league. Justin Simmons has been one of the better cover safeties in the game, and Kareem Jackson was a former slot cornerback. Considering these two are in a timeshare, it’s best to avoid, especially when we saw the floor last week in a plus matchup against the Panthers where they combined for one catch and 11 yards.
Noah Fant: It was a quiet start to the game for Fant last week, but he made his mark on the Steelers once Jeff Driskel came in and ultimately finished with four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. My concern with Fant this year was the lack of targets with so many good options, but now without Sutton and Lindsay, things have opened up a bit, allowing him to be the No. 4 tight end through two weeks. The Bucs knew their safety position was one they could’ve upgraded, and they did, snagging Antoine Winfield Jr. in the second round. He’s looked good through two weeks, and the Bucs have allowed just 14.8 PPR points to tight ends through the first two games, which ranks as the seventh fewest in the league. That’s somewhat easy to do when you play against Ian Thomas and Chris Manhertz in Week 2, who combined for just one catch and eight yards. If you go back to Week 1, it was a different story with Jared Cook, who snagged 5-of-7 targets for 80 yards. Knowing the Bucs allowed nine top-12 tight ends last year in this scheme, the jury is still out, but Fant should be seeing five-plus targets in every game, making him a solid low-end TE1/high-end TE2.
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Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
QBs
Aaron Rodgers: Despite his monstrous performance in Week 1, Rodgers currently sits as the No. 7 quarterback on the season. He’s not running the ball at all, which is turning him into a “must throw three touchdowns to finish top-10” type of quarterback. His pass catchers are still a question mark and we now must make sure that Davante Adams is going to play after suffering a hamstring injury during their Week 2 win. The Saints are going to present a tougher matchup, despite what they looked like on Monday night. It seems the Saints have those games from time to time, but they just didn’t have an answer for Darren Waller. Since Week 3 of last year, the Saints have played 15 regular season games. In those 15 games, just two quarterbacks have averaged more than 7.56 yards per attempt. That’s why just three quarterbacks have thrown for 300 yards against them in that time, with two of those quarterbacks needing 50 pass attempts to get there. You should certainly feel better about Rodgers if Adams is out there, but I’m afraid he lacks enough weapons against this talented defense. He’s just a middling QB2 this week.
Drew Brees: Remember when Brees was seriously contemplating retirement? I’m not going to say he’s experiencing a Peyton Manning-like decline, but he hasn’t looked good through two weeks. He’s averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt, which is a number he fell below in just three games last year. The loss of Michael Thomas was a topper on the cake, as he’s the safety valve who always seems to be open and has magnets for hands. The Packers defense is generating pressure (9.4 percent sack rate, fifth in NFL), but they haven’t been efficient overall against quarterbacks, allowing them 8.67 yards per attempt with a 6.9 percent touchdown rate. The 0.59 fantasy points per actual pass attempt rank as the seventh most in the league. The reason they haven’t allowed a lot of points to them? Plays. Their opponents are averaging just 53.5 plays per game and it’s led to just 58 pass attempts. Meanwhile, the Saints are averaging just 61.5 plays per game themselves because they haven’t sustained drives with Brees playing mediocre. Brees has played better at home over the course of his career and this game has a rather high total, so we can’t completely write him off, but Brees is more of a high-end QB2 than a must-play this week, especially given that we don’t know Thomas’ status right now.
RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: Not only is Jones getting it done on the ground, but he’s also tied for the league lead with four red zone targets through two games. If you saw his highlight reel catch last week, you’ll know that his targets aren’t going away. Against the Saints, the Packers will need to get creative, as this is a team that shuts down running games. They’ve allowed just 3.41 yards per carry on the year with one touchdown on 54 carries, and it’s nothing new, as they ranked as the No. 6 team against running backs last year while allowing 3.65 yards per carry. The 145.9 fantasy points they allowed on the ground ranked as the third-best behind only the Patriots and Bucs. The 181.8 PPR points they allowed through the air to running backs was a lot better, as that was the 10th-most in football. Jones has now seen at least six targets in each of the last three regular seasons he’s played. If Davante Adams is out or limited, that number should be safe. This is not going to be an explosion game on the ground, but as I’ve been saying since this offseason, Jones is very similar to Alvin Kamara in that he’s highly efficient, even if he doesn’t get 20-plus touches per game like some top-tier backs. Start him as a low-end RB1 in this matchup. Williams has surprisingly seen 19 touches over the first two games, but only four have been targets. In a matchup with the Saints, I don’t want to take his touches, as they offer a very low ceiling.
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: I don’t know what the Saints were thinking last week. Murray had three carries through the first 10 minutes of that game for 14 yards, yet they went away from the run and it cost them the game. Meanwhile, Kamara continues to be hyper-efficient, and is the No. 2 running back in fantasy right alongside his doppelganger, Aaron Jones. The Packers run defense is nothing to be worried about, as they allowed a massive 4.86 yards per carry last year and have continued that trend in 2020 while allowing 4.87 yards per carry through two weeks. The lone issue is that running backs have totaled just 48 touches against them in the first two weeks, as they’ve averaged just 53.5 plays per game. But when you pair an efficient running back like Kamara against a Packers defense that’s allowed 1.08 PPR points per opportunity, you get big results. Kamara has averaged two touchdowns per game to this point, and he might just get there again in Week 3. Start him as a star RB1. Murray went from 15 carries in Week 1 to just three in Week 2, which gives you all sorts of anxiety when trusting him. But we can’t let one matchup dictate how we feel about a player. In a game where the Saints are 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 51.5 points, he should have some scoring opportunities. Consider him a semi-risky RB4 who has touchdown upside.
WRs
Davante Adams: We got a scare with Adams last week, as he suffered a hamstring injury that had him exit the game in the third quarter. He reportedly wanted to go back in, but they held him back with a big lead. You must pay attention to his practice participation throughout the week. The part that’s extremely rough is that this is a brutal matchup with Marshon Lattimore this week, one of the league’s premier cornerbacks, so if Adams is at less than 100 percent, it only gets worse. Despite shadowing the league’s best receivers, Lattimore has allowed six touchdowns in his coverage over a span of 254 career targets in coverage. Not bad, eh? Keep in mind he plays Mike Evans and Julio Jones twice a year. You can’t sit Adams if he plays, that much we know, but you need to understand this is a tough matchup and Adams won’t carry a massive ceiling. *Update* It’s not looking good for Adams on Sunday night, as he has not practiced all week. Prepare to be without the star wide receiver in Week 3.
Allen Lazard: There were back-to-back plays in Week 2 where Aaron Rodgers likely lost some confidence in Lazard, as he threw the ball back-shoulder on what should have been a 28-yard touchdown, but Lazard turned around too late. The very next play, he dropped a pass over the middle. He has nine targets through two games, which isn’t the end of the world, but it’s also not the range we were hoping for. The Saints perimeter cornerback duo of Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins is among the best in the NFL, so it means a lot to know that Lazard is playing 63 percent of his snaps in the slot. That will match him up with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson most of the time. He’s allowed 7-of-8 passing in his coverage for 46 yards through two weeks. It’s not a matchup you actively target, but it’s the best of the Packers bunch. Lazard should be on the WR4/5 radar for this game, especially if Adams is held out, as it would raise his target floor.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He ranks 12th in the NFL in air yards, so we can’t simply give up on him after a down game. Similar to Lazard, Valdes-Scantling had back-to-back bad plays in Week 2, including a drop in the end zone. He’s playing on the perimeter 80 percent of the time, which means he’ll see a lot of Marshon Lattimore or Janoris Jenkins in coverage. Teams have chosen not to target those cornerbacks much, as the Saints have faced just 29 wide receiver targets, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Rodgers appears willing to target Valdes-Scantling in one-on-one coverage down the field, so we could see a few deep shots that may pay off, but you shouldn’t bet on it against this secondary. He’s a risk/reward WR5 who would get a solid bump if Adams sits.
Michael Thomas: I’m expecting him to be held out another week, though if we see him trending towards playing, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He’s not expected to play on Sunday night.
Emmanuel Sanders: It hasn’t been a great start to the relationship between Sanders and Brees, as Sanders is averaging just 4.1 yards per target. He saw just three targets with Michael Thomas out of the lineup, making fantasy owners want to pull out their hair. Sanders is playing 40 percent of his snaps in the slot, which means he’ll see a mixture of all Packers cornerbacks. If there’s been a trend over the last two years, it’s that the Packers are hurt deep down the field by wide receivers, and that’s evidenced by the 14.95 yards per reception this year and 15.84 yards per reception last year. Sanders has an average depth of target of just 7.5 yards, which is among the lowest in the league. This doesn’t seem like a matchup that fits his strengths very well, making him a mediocre WR4/5, and that’s with Thomas out of the lineup.
Tre’Quan Smith: As expected, Smith saw a much larger role with Michael Thomas out of the lineup. We can extend the chart we used last week, or I could just tell you that in the 12 games where Smith has seen three or more targets, he’s scored double-digit PPR points in seven of them and has just two games with less than 7.4 PPR points. If Thomas is out, he’s on the fantasy radar, and this matchup suits his role well. The Packers secondary has allowed 15.8 yards per reception to wide receivers over their last 18 games, which is more Smith’s role than Emmanuel Sanders‘, as he’s targeted down the field with more frequency. It doesn’t help that Brees is throwing the ball deep (20-plus yards) on just 4.4 percent of his passes, though. That’s the third-lowest mark in the league and the real issue with the ceiling for any Saints wide receiver not named Thomas. If Thomas has to miss another week, Smith is likely the best play among Saints receivers, but Brees needs to start taking shots down the field.
TEs
Robert Tonyan: He’s the leading tight end in snaps (92), pass plays (50), and production, though that’s not saying much. He has three targets on the year with two catches for 25 yards and a touchdown. And after Jace Sternberger dropped one of his two targets last week, he’s not moving up the depth chart. We saw Darren Waller dismantle the Saints defense last week, but that’s because he’s legitimately a wide receiver in a tight ends body. The Saints were the 10th-best defense against tight ends last year, so don’t let that game sway your decision to never think about a Packers tight end again.
Jared Cook: Who would’ve thought that Cook would see fewer targets with Michael Thomas out of the lineup? This has been the life of Cook fantasy owners through the years. Tight ends have only been targeted seven times against the Packers this year, but every single one of those targets have been caught for 101 yards, though no touchdowns. That 14.4 yards per target is the most in the league. In the same defensive scheme last year, this defense allowed eight tight ends to post top-12 numbers against them, though it’s worth noting that seven of them saw six-plus targets. That’s a number Cook should get to, though after last week’s oddball performance from the Saints, nothing should shock you. I’d still say he’s a lock for five-plus targets and that makes him a low-end TE1 with upside should the Saints offense return to form.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Over the last eight regular season games, Mahomes hasn’t quite lived up to his No. 1 quarterback drafted price tag. During that time, he’s averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game, which would rank 15th in 2020, and would’ve been No. 8 in 2019. I’m not suggesting he’s not elite, but when you factor that in with his matchup against the Ravens this week, you don’t get warm and fuzzy feelings. The Ravens have allowed exactly one quarterback to score more than 15.8 fantasy points against them since the start of 2019, a span of 18 games. That quarterback was Mahomes, when he completed 27-of-37 passes for 374 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 of last year. The week is notable because the Ravens didn’t have Marcus Peters on the roster at that point, but they did have Earl Thomas. Going back to 2018 against this John Harbaugh defense, Mahomes did throw the ball 53 times for 377 yards and two touchdowns, so it’s clear this defense is not his kryptonite. Mahomes has always played well on a national stage, too. He’s averaged 321.3 yards and 2.7 touchdowns in his three Monday night games. You’re starting him every week, and despite the tough matchup, you shouldn’t be scared to.
Lamar Jackson: The lack of competition has been crippling to Jackson’s ceiling, as he scored just 17.6 fantasy points against the Texans last week, his second-lowest point total since the start of the 2019 season. Lack of competition won’t be an issue in Week 3 when the Chiefs come to town. There will be no letting off the gas pedal against this team. It’s nice to see the Chiefs have allowed back-to-back 20-plus point performances to Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert, as they both were able to throw a touchdown and rush for a touchdown. The Chiefs found out one of their starting cornerbacks was suspended before the season, and he’s still out. They were also without their other starting cornerback Charvarius Ward last week, who’s dealing with a fractured hand. The Chiefs are generating an 8.5 percent sack rate through two games, which is solid, but they’re also allowing the seventh-most fantasy points on the ground. They were eighth last year, so this is no fluke. Despite not throwing a touchdown against them, Jackson still finished as the QB10 on the week due to his mobility. The Chiefs are also allowing a robust 8.68 yards per attempt on the young season, so Jackson should be able to pick his poison. Start him as the elite QB1 you always do. I do believe he’s a safer start in DFS than Mahomes.
RBs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: He leads the league with carries inside the 20-, 10-, and 5-yard line. He’s totaled exactly 100 percent of the running back carries inside the red zone. The only other running backs who can say that are Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, James Robinson, and Kenyan Drake. Production will follow. We also saw him used in the passing game last week, though the matchup with the Chargers was a tough one. If there’s one potential leak on the Ravens defense, it’s got to be the run defense that’s allowed 4.89 yards per carry through the first two weeks, though no teams have been able to commit to the run, as they’ve fallen behind rather quickly. That’s why running backs have totaled just 42 total touches against them, which has hidden the efficiency running backs have had. There were six running backs who totaled at least 87 yards on the ground against the Ravens last year, and though none of them were on the Chiefs, there is a positive from their game against each other last year. The combination of LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams totaled 116 yards on 17 carries and added eight receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown through the air. With Edwards-Helaire getting 73.8 percent of the running back opportunities in the Chiefs backfield, he’s a low-end RB1, even in a tough matchup.
Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins: Through two weeks, the touch split in this backfield is Ingram 21, Edwards 14, and Dobbins 10. The snaps are somewhat similar with Ingram leading the way with 48, Edwards 46, and Dobbins 43. It seems like Ingram is the one who they’ll play the most when the game is close, Edwards is the closer, while Dobbins does everything in between, though that role has only led to 10 opportunities through two weeks. If he hadn’t scored those two touchdowns in Week 1, he would be a running back with 83 total yards through two weeks. His role should continue to grow as the weeks go on, but he’s a risky start at this moment. The Chiefs are a matchup to attack with running backs, as they’ve allowed 19 different running backs finish as the RB26 or better over their last 18 games. During last year’s meeting, Mark Ingram exploded for 103 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries and chipped in four receptions for 32 yards. That was the second-highest number of carries he had all season. His other two highest totals came against the Steelers and Patriots, so it’s obvious they trust him in competitive situations, which this game will be. Ingram should be in lineups as a solid RB2 for this game with a good shot to score at least once. Dobbins is someone I understand the ‘want’ to play him more than I understand the process. He’s a risky RB3/4 option who will disappoint if he doesn’t score. Edwards will have a bigger role if they blow out the Chiefs, but we’re not expecting that, so he’s not a recommended fantasy option.
WRs
Tyreek Hill: It’s probably best if you don’t watch the game if you roster Hill, as he’s a roller coaster of emotion. He didn’t do much for most of Week 1 but caught a touchdown to salvage his game. He had four catches for 45 yards through almost the whole game against the Chargers, but caught a long 54-yard touchdown to finish as the No. 7 wide receiver on the week. That’s what you get with Hill, but the good news is that he has that one-play upside that can swing a week. The Ravens have not been a team to allow many passing yards (sixth-fewest in 2019), but they did allow nine plays of 40-plus yards last year, which ranked as the 12th-most. Of the eight wide receivers who scored 15-plus PPR points against the Ravens last year, seven of them were slot-heavy receivers. Hill is teetering on slot heavy, as he’s taken over as the receiver who plays the most slot snaps among the Chiefs receivers at 54 percent. The Ravens slot cornerback Tavon Young tore his ACL in Week 2 and is out for the season. The Ravens are likely to tell Marlon Humphrey to do his best and hang with Hill. He has 4.4-speed, so he’s fast, even though he may not be Hill-type fast. He’s done well in the slot, too, allowing just 37-for-59 passing for 347 yards and two touchdowns while on the inside. Hill is going to be in lineups, but his matchup won’t make it easy to finish as a WR1 this week.
Sammy Watkins: It seems like Watkins avoided a concussion on the big hit he took last week, though we won’t know for sure until we see the practice reports. As expected, he was a non-factor against the Chargers and their talented duo of cornerbacks. Now onto the Ravens, he’s not likely to fare much better. With Marlon Humphrey covering the slot, and likely Tyreek Hill, that would leave Marcus Peters on Watkins most of the time. Through two games, this cornerback unit has allowed a miniscule 1.35 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league. When you play Watkins, you don’t play him for a safe floor; you play him for the upside, and in this matchup, that doesn’t really exist. Watkins is not a recommended start in this matchup. *Update* Watkins is currently in the concussion protocol, which clouds his status for Monday night, though you should’ve been looking elsewhere anyway.
Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman: There’s a development to be aware of among these two. After Robinson played 33 snaps in Week 1 and Hardman played 20 snaps, the gap not only shrunk, but flip-flopped, as Hardman played two more snaps than Robinson in Week 2 against the Chargers. Hardman’s 50 offensive snaps in Week 2 were the fourth-most of his young career. It’s something we’re paying attention to, but it doesn’t mean you want to take the chance to start him in redraft leagues. If you’re playing in tournaments, Hardman makes the most sense here, as he offers one-play potential. Oddly enough, the biggest game of Hardman’s career to this point was against the Ravens last year when he caught two passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill was out that week, but it’s still noteworthy.
Marquise Brown: It felt like we hit the rewind button to 2019 last week when the Ravens receivers totaled just 14 targets during the game. Though six of them went to Brown, they amounted to just five catches for 42 scoreless yards. There are a lot of people who believe that the Chiefs are always ahead and that it leads to a lot of passing attempts for the other team, which means a lot of fantasy points for wide receivers. That’s not true. Did you know the Chiefs allowed the fewest yards in the league to wide receivers last year? Will Fuller‘s 112 yards in Week 1 was just the second time in 18 games they’ve allowed a 100-yard receiver. Keep in mind there have been 15 wide receivers who’ve seen at least eight targets during that span. Now, with that being said, they were already down one starting cornerback to suspension, but they were also down another starting cornerback last week, as Charvarius Ward did not play through his fractured hand. There’s no guarantee he plays on Monday night. That would mean fourth-round rookie L’Jarius Sneed and last year’s sixth-round pick Rashad Fenton would be starting on the perimeter. That duo has allowed 25 receptions for 283 yards and three touchdowns on 43 targets over their short careers. The matchup is better than it typically is. You should trot Brown out there as a low-end WR2 with some upside in a projected shootout.
Miles Boykin: It seems like Boykin is going to have a role in the offense this year, as he’s seen nine targets over the first two weeks despite both games being blowout wins. By comparison, he saw 22 targets all of last year. He’s run just one fewer route than Marquise Brown through two games. While the Chiefs allowed just 122.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers last year (lowest in the NFL) but allowed a touchdown every 25.2 targets, which ranked ninth, so they were a bit easier to come by. If you’re looking for a touchdown with a cheap option in the showdown slate, Boykin isn’t horrible, but he’s not great, either.
Willie Snead: Even if I were to tell you that Snead were going to get five targets in this game, could you confidently start him? What if I told you that the max he’d total was 61 yards? I hope you’re getting the point of this exercise. Since the start of 2019, Snead hasn’t topped five targets in a game and he hasn’t totaled more than 61 yards. He’s a low-floor, low-ceiling player. If you’re looking for a cheap option to snag a few catches for a showdown cash play, he’s fine, but that’s about it.
TEs
Travis Kelce: The process was right last week when we talked about the reasons to start Kelce anywhere you could. Of course you are starting him in redraft leagues every week, but DFS requires consideration every week as he’s expensive. The process that led us to Kelce last week should do the same again in this game against the Ravens. Of the fantasy production the Ravens have allowed to skill-position players, 35.6 percent of it has gone to the tight end position, which is easily the highest mark in the league, as no other team is over 28.9 percent. They’ve allowed a 79 percent completion-rate and 7.79 yards per target to the combination of David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Jordan Akins, and Darren Fells. With Tyreek Hill matched up with Marlon Humphrey and Sammy Watkins matched up with Marcus Peters, we should see plenty of targets funneled to Kelce. He’s worth the cost of admission in DFS lineups.
Mark Andrews: It was a down week for Andrews against the Texans, but don’t be too concerned. He has run almost the same number of routes as Marquise Brown through two games and is playing the majority of snaps. The points will come. The matchup with the Chiefs wasn’t the best for tight ends last year, as there were just two tight ends all of last year who scored more than 12.9 PPR points against them. With that being said, they’ve struggled a bit out of the gate in 2020. Their primary linebackers in coverage have been Ben Niemann and Anthony Hitchens, who’ve allowed 10-of-14 passes to be completed for 159 yards and a touchdown in thier coverage. We just saw Hunter Henry tag this defense for 6/83/0 in Justin Herbert‘s first career start with exactly zero notice. You’re starting Andrews everywhere you can. If forced to pick one for a showdown lineup, I’d probably go Kelce if I could afford him, but Andrews is far from a bad alternative.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: After a brutal opening week that seemed like he’d get benched sooner rather than later, Fitzpatrick bounced back with a solid performance against a strong Buffalo defense. This seemed like a week they could go to Tua Tagovailoa and ease him into the NFL with an easy matchup, but it’s hard after Fitz’s performance in Week 2. The Jaguars have allowed a robust 8.6 yards per attempt to the combination of Philip Rivers and an A.J. Brown-less Ryan Tannehill over the first two weeks of the season. The good news for Fitzpatrick is that they’ve actually done a solid job slowing down their opponents’ run game, as they’ve allowed just 176 yards on 49 carries (3.59 yards per carry) over the first two weeks, and the Dolphins rushing attack is not what you’d describe as “potent.” And keep in mind their first two opponents were Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, so it wasn’t weak competition. Playing Fitzpatrick is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re gonna get. However, when you look at last year’s performances, Fitzpatrick scored at least 14.3 fantasy points in all but one of his plus matchups. Knowing the Jaguars defense is in full rebuild mode, Fitzpatrick should deliver solid QB2 numbers, but there are likely better options in standard 1QB leagues.
Gardner Minshew: You can’t help but root for Minshew, who’s doing his best to ruin any chance the Jaguars have at the No. 1 overall pick next year. Through two games, he’s completed 47-of-67 passes for 512 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions, while rushing for 38 yards. The Dolphins upgraded their secondary this offseason, though it hasn’t exactly shown through two weeks, as both Cam Newton and Josh Allen totaled at least 25 fantasy points against them. Allen just threw for 417 yards, shattering his previous career-high (312 yards, which took place in Week 1). The issue for the talented Dolphins secondary is that the front seven is generating no pass rush, as they’ve combined for just three sacks over the first two games. The Colts struggled to put pressure on Minshew in Week 1, which led to him completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns, and every single yard of that came from a clean pocket. There have now been 14-of-18 quarterbacks to score at least 15.6 fantasy points against the Brian Flores coached Dolphins defense. If you’re looking for a high-floor, high-end QB2 streamer, Minshew should fit that description.
RBs
Jordan Howard, Myles Gaskin, and Matt Breida: This backfield didn’t get any clearer in Week 2, as Gaskin led the way with 13 touches, Breida got eight, while Howard brought up the caboose with five. The issue, of course, is that Howard is getting the goal-line opportunities, stealing any sort of ceiling for someone like Gaskin. The Jaguars have surprised early in the season, allowing Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor to combine for just 106 yards on 34 carries (3.12 yards per carry) and no touchdowns. They did allow the Colts running backs to combine for a ridiculous 17 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 meeting, which clearly benefits someone like Gaskin, who has the passing-down role locked up with 11 targets through two weeks, while Breida has just two. The 7.40 yards per target the Jaguars allowed to running backs was the third-highest mark in the league, too. If you play in a PPR format, Gaskin can be considered a back-end RB3 for those dealing with injuries; just understand he doesn’t come with a massive ceiling. The Jaguars have allowed at least 20 points to their opponents in nine of their last 10 games, so there should be a chance at Howard stealing a touchdown, but even then, what do you get? He’s nothing more than a touchdown-hopeful RB4/5. Breida is the forgotten man whose role falls in between those of Gaskin and Howard.
James Robinson and Chris Thompson: You know what I thought about last week? What’s the difference between Robinson and the Leonard Fournette many were drafting in the third round prior to him getting cut? Robinson is the clear workhorse on this team, and we now know that Thompson isn’t getting much work. So again, what’s the difference? I’ll be honest, I didn’t like Fournette at his third-round price, but as a back-end RB2? Absolutely. Robinson has totaled 32 of the team’s 34 running back carries and has averaged 5.1 yards per carry on them. With how well the receivers and Minshew are playing, he should continue to find holes. The Dolphins are clearly a team to run the ball against, as the weak running back units of the Patriots and Bills combined for 212 yards and a touchdown on 44 carries over the last two weeks. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 10 of last year to find the last time the Dolphins didn’t allow at least 21 points to their opponent. When you combine that with the team-implied total of 23.8 points, and Robinson should have a good shot to score in this game. Consider him a stable low-end RB2. As for Thompson, he has totaled just seven touches through two weeks. There’s no reason you should feel compelled to start him, especially in a game they are favored to win.
WRs
DeVante Parker: Shame on me for not expecting Parker to play last week. He was dealing with a hamstring injury coming into Week 1, aggravated it, then somehow made it back on the field to catch 5-of-8 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. That’s impressive because he’s now caught 9-of-12 balls for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Bills (Tre’Davious White, though he wasn’t shadowed) and Stephon Gilmore. Now onto the Jaguars, a team with no shutdown cornerback. The duo of C.J. Henderson and Tre Herndon have done a solid job containing the opposing No. 1 wide receivers in each of the last two weeks, as Corey Davis walked away with just 3/36/1, and his touchdown was highly contested, while T.Y. Hilton finished with just 4/53/0 on nine targets. Neither of them are playing on the level of Parker, and their run defense has slowed down some solid running backs, so it’s possible we get a double-digit target game for Parker here. Start him as a sturdy WR2 this week who’s apparently over his hamstring concerns.
Preston Williams: We heard great things out of camp about Williams coming off the ACL injury he suffered last year, but judging what we’ve seen on the field, he hasn’t looked good. He’s caught just 3-of-12 targets for 67 yards over the first two games, though they were tough matchups against the Patriots and Bills. But if he keeps dropping touchdowns, like he did in the Bills game, he’s going to start losing even more targets to Isaiah Ford. Williams is also playing all his snaps on the perimeter, which doesn’t give him many catch-and-run opportunities. The Jaguars secondary isn’t one to be worried about, but you should play the wait-and-see game with Williams, as he just might not be all the way over the mental hurdle from his injury. Consider him a WR5/6 for now. If he goes off on your bench, that’s obviously good for future usage. If he has another game like the one he did in Week 2, it might be time to consider dropping him.
Isaiah Ford: While scanning over every team, I typically find something fantasy owners would be shocked by. How about this one: Ford leads the Dolphins wide receivers in targets (14) through two weeks. He’s playing the slot role in Chan Gailey’s offense, which has typically netted results. The matchup over the middle of the field against the Bills was one to attack, and the Dolphins did just that, as Ford racked up seven receptions for 76 yards. The Jaguars have D.J. Hayden covering the slot, a role he’s been quite good in over the last few years. The biggest game he allowed to a slot receiver last year was six catches for 93 scoreless yards. While I do believe Ford is a name to watch as the weeks go on, I don’t want to consider him more than a WR5 in this matchup.
D.J. Chark: If you didn’t gauge the panic level of Chark’s owner in your league this week, you’re doing fantasy football wrong. He’s the No. 1 receiver on this team and the flood gates are going to open soon. With Minshew using everyone on the field, it’ll only take away the attention that Chark gets. This week will likely be a tough one to maintain his efficiency, but the Dolphins cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones haven’t lived up to their reputation over the first two weeks. They allowed N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman catch 10-of-13 balls for 96 yards (and almost a touchdown, had Harry not fumbled into the end zone), and then allowed Stefon Diggs and John Brown to rip them to shreds for 12 catches, 235 yards, and two touchdowns. It’s odd to find out that the Dolphins had rookie Noah Igbinoghene on Diggs for most of the game, as they said Howard isn’t in a position to shadow right now. It’s likely due to the fact that their front seven isn’t generating any pressure, leaving them out to dry in coverage. I’d like Chark more if he moved into the slot more than 17 percent of the time (his percentage to this point), as he’d evade the coverage of those two cornerbacks, but he’s still talented enough to win. Because of that, he should be considered a high-end WR3 who should start seeing more targets. *Update* Chark has been ruled OUT for this game and needs to be taken out of lineups.
Laviska Shenault: The Jaguars are trying to get the ball in his hands and let him do work, as he’s now totaled eight targets and seven carries through two games. In a game where they should be efficient running the ball, it would mean a lot if he got the same five carries he did in Week 2. He’s coming on the field in 3WR sets behind Keelan Cole, though we could see that change as the season progresses. Miami does have a talented cornerback duo, though, particularly on the perimeter, which is where Shenault is playing two-thirds of his snaps. You don’t want to rely on carries yet, either, as it was just one game where he saw them (two carries in Week 1). It’s definitely encouraging and he should be owned with the chance of a breakout, but it’s only a matter of time before Chark starts seeing the targets he deserves, which will make Shenault even tougher to project. He’s a boom-or-bust WR5-type option. *Update* With Chark ruled out for the game, Shenault’s touch-floor just went up and boosts him into WR4 consideration. The downside is that he plays a lot on the perimeter, which means he will see a lot of Xavien Howard, the Dolphins top cornerback. There’s still bust potential here, but it’d be shocking if he doesn’t total at least five targets.
Keelan Cole: He leads the team in targets right now, and rightfully so considering he’s caught all 11 of them for 105 yards and two touchdowns. He out-snapped Laviska Shenault last week 51 to 43, making him the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He’s running almost all of his routes from the slot, which is extremely good in this matchup against Miami, who have allowed Julian Edelman 5/57/0 in Week 1, and then 5/70/0 to Cole Beasley in Week 2. Their primary slot cornerback is Jamal Perry, though they benched him for Nik Needham in Week 2. That didn’t fare well, so who knows which route they’ll take this week. What we do know is that Cole can play a role in fantasy football and his early-season performances may not be a fluke. Knowing he has the best matchup on the field, he deserves a slight bump in the rankings. Both him and Shenault should be considered WR5 types, with Cole being the safer of the two. With all the injuries in the league, you could do worse as a last-ditch option in Week 3, especially since Chark is dealing with some sort of injury. *Update* With Chark ruled out, Cole’s floor and ceiling just went up into borderline WR3 territory. He’s my favorite wide receiver play on the Jaguars roster.
TEs
Mike Gesicki: There have now been two games in Gesicki’s career where he’s totaled double-digit targets. The first time was Week 16 last year where he racked up six catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns. The second time was last week where he crushed the Bills for eight catches, 130 yards, and a touchdown. Gesicki now has six touchdowns in his last eight NFL games after not scoring a single touchdown in his first 26 games. It’s fair to say that Fitzpatrick’s confidence in him has grown. The Jaguars were a team to target with tight ends last year, as any tight end who saw more than four targets finished with at least 11.1 PPR points. That trend continued this year when Jonnu Smith crushed them for 4/82/2 on just five targets last week. With the way Preston Williams is struggling and how little the run game is producing, Gesicki should continue to see targets and be played as a sturdy TE1.
Tyler Eifert: It was Eifert who walked away with the touchdown in Week 2, but it was James O’Shaughnessy who ate into his potential upside. Eifert did see a respectable six targets (what we look for in streamers), but O’Shaughnessy saw four of his own. We can’t expect Minshew to throw the ball 45 times every week, especially in a game they’re favored to win. The Dolphins haven’t really been tested up the middle with tight ends to this point, as Ryan Izzo and Dawson Knox combined to see just five targets. Don’t go assuming that Eifert is going to get targeted more than them, either, as he received just one target in Week 1. He’s never going to be someone you’ll stream confidently, as he’s just a touchdown dependent option. The injuries have added up over the years, leading him to average just 6.86 yards per target over the last two years. This is not an obvious matchup you need to attack.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
