Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It felt like we were back in 2019 again, as Tannehill was absurdly efficient against the Jaguars, completing 18-of-24 passes for 239 yards and four touchdowns. He did it without A.J. Brown, too, which made it that much more impressive. It was clear they sold out to stop Henry, allowing Tannehill to find his men sometimes uncovered. He’s now thrown 28 touchdowns over his last 12 regular-season games as a starter. The Vikings defense is suddenly one to pick on in fantasy, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (111.4) through two weeks. It’s balanced, too, as they’ve allowed 20.7 points per game to quarterbacks, while allowing 28.5 PPR points per game to running backs. They’re still without their best pass rusher (Danielle Hunter) for at least one more week, and their defense took another hit last week when linebacker Anthony Barr tore his pectoral muscle and was announced as out for the year. Even with Barr, the Vikings have allowed a 73.9 percent completion-rate, 8.38 yards per attempt, and a 7.3 percent touchdown-rate. Those are all near the league high. The only concern with Tannehill is Henry taking over, but knowing the Vikings opponents have averaged 71.5 plays per game, there should be plenty to go around. Tannehill should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.
Kirk Cousins: The Vikings are running an average of just 48.0 plays per game while their opponents have averaged 71.5 of them. That’s… bad. Their two opponents have held the ball for 66.4 percent of the game, which is the most in the league. In fact, the Jets are the only other team whose opponents have had the ball more than 58.0 percent of the time. It’s going to be difficult to produce in those circumstances, and it doesn’t help that Cousins played one of the worst games of his career in Week 2. After being under pressure on 38 percent of his dropbacks in Week 2, Cousins should have a bit more time against a Titans front that has just a 2.5 percent sack-rate through two weeks. They’re still without their top cornerback Adoree Jackson, and they also had veteran Johnathan Joseph leave the game in Week 2 with a leg injury. If they’re without Jackson and Joseph, they’ll be starting Malcolm Butler and rookie Kristian Fulton. It’s not a bad matchup, but there’s no way you can trust Cousins after the outing he just had, combined with his defense’s inability to get off the field. He doesn’t come with a high floor and his ceiling is limited considering his current stable of pass catchers and lack of mobility. He’s just a low-end QB2.
RBs
Derrick Henry: The good news is that the Titans are 2-0 and Henry leads the league in rushing attempts. The bad news is that he hasn’t scored through two weeks and has caught just three passes for 15 yards. That currently has him sitting at RB25 on the season in PPR formats, right behind Myles Gaskin. It’s disappointing to see him not crush Jacksonville, a team that he dismantled last year, but that’s why they play the game, right? The vitals are good for Henry and things would look a bit different if he’d scored. The Vikings were a threating defense in recent history, but not so much anymore. The biggest losses to their run defense this offseason were defensive tackle Linval Joseph and edge rusher Everson Griffin, which hurt, but they just lost linebacker Anthony Barr last week to a torn pectoral injury. Even with him on the field, the Vikings defense has allowed 280 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns over the first two weeks. Heck, even going back to last year, they allowed five different running backs to surpass 100 yards on the ground. This is no longer a matchup to be worried about. Keep him in lineups as your RB1; he’ll get back on track.
Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: The fact that Cook has scored three touchdowns has saved him from looking like an ugly top-six pick this year, though it’s not his doing. The Vikings offense has only run 48.0 plays per game because their defense can’t get off the field, and it’s led to Cook totaling just 29 touches through two weeks. The two starting running backs who’ve gone against the Titans haven’t had that problem, as they’ve both (James Robinson, Melvin Gordon) totaled at least 18 touches, and that’s despite the Titans winning both those games. Titans opponents have averaged 66.5 plays per game this year, which would be a welcomed sight for all Vikings players who’ve been forced to be too efficient with minimal plays. The 5.15 yards per carry the Titans have allowed to this point is the fourth-highest mark in the league, though it was expected to be a strength of theirs this year with their talented front seven. Maybe the loss of interior defensive lineman Jurrell Casey matters more than most thought? There were also nine running backs who totaled at least five receptions against the Titans last year, so Cook’s floor should be fine, and we all know his ceiling in this offense. Trot him back out there as a solid RB1 this week. With the Vikings not running many plays, Mattison has totaled just 14 touches through two weeks, which makes it difficult to trust him as anything more than a desperation RB5. He does remain one of the better handcuffs in the league, though.
WRs
A.J. Brown: We don’t know how long Brown’s knee injury is expected to keep him out, but they said it’s a week-to-week thing, so it’s best we plan to be without him for now. If anything changes, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He’s officially been ruled OUT.
Corey Davis: After a great Week 1 performance, Davis was bailed out by a touchdown to salvage his Week 2 performance where Tannehill threw four touchdowns. The one Davis did snag was impressive, and we did talk about the volume concerns in that game, which came true when Tannehill threw just 22 passes. The Vikings are allowing more fantasy points per game than the Jaguars did, and I’m not talking about just the wide receivers. As for the receivers, the Vikings have allowed a massive 53.1 PPR points per game to them, which ranks as the second most in the league behind only the Seahawks. That’s what happens when you flip your cornerback depth chart upside down. The combination of Mike Hughes and Holton Hill have allowed 19-of-24 passing for 233 yards and two touchdowns through two weeks, and they’re the ones Davis will see much of the day. Much of that was done by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers receivers, but Tannehill has proven to be playing at a high level, so there’s little reason to doubt he can get the ball to Davis. If Brown remains out, Davis is in the WR3 conversation. If Brown can suit up, Davis might still be the preferred play (depending on how limited Brown is), but his floor would drop him into the WR4 range. *Update* Both Mike Hughes and Cameron Dantzler have been ruled out for the Vikings, further upgrading the matchup.
Adam Humphries: Suddenly, he’s tied for the most targets (13) on the team. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars and is suddenly back on the radar with A.J. Brown missing in action. When the Titans opponent goes three-wide, it moves Mike Hughes into the slot. He’s a former first-round pick from 2018 who’s talented and at 5-foot-10 and 189 pounds, he should be agile enough to hang alongside Humphries. It’s not a must-avoid matchup for those who are looking for a last-minute PPR option, as Hughes has allowed 5-of-6 passing in the slot for 74 yards through two weeks. If Brown remains out, we should have five-plus targets for Humphries, making him a decent floor WR5/6, but he lacks a ceiling. *Update* Not only is Brown out, but Mike Huges is out as well, upgrading Humphries’ matchup in the slot. With 13 targets through two games, he shouldn’t be forgotten about.
Adam Thielen: He was one of my biggest whiffs last week, as I figured he’d crush the Colts secondary, but Kirk Cousins had one of the worst games of his career. Thielen has seen a 31.4 percent target share through two weeks, so there’s little reason to worry about him in that aspect. Sadly, they’re only having him run 15 percent of his routes from the slot, which is where he’s been most effective throughout his career. Thielen might get a rookie in coverage more often than not in Week 2, as the Titans are missing their top cornerback Adoree Jackson, and might be down his backup with Johnathan Joseph, who suffered a leg injury in Week 2. That would leave Kristian Fulton at LCB, which is where Thielen lines up most of the time. Fulton has only seen four targets in his young NFL career, which have led to three catches for 48 yards, though the one incomplete pass was an interception just last week. I did like Fulton during the draft process but going against Thielen is going to be tough for any rookie. Knowing his target share, combined with the fact that the Vikings should run a lot more plays this week, you should trust Thielen as a high-end WR2 in his matchup with the rookie.
Justin Jefferson: It’s going to be tough for Jefferson to produce when the Vikings have thrown the ball just 51 times over the first two weeks, but he’s caught 5-of-6 targets for 70 yards while running nearly all his routes from the slot, which should be good for production. The Titans have seventh-round rookie Chris Jackson covering the slot and he’s been picked on a bit through two games, allowing eight catches for 81 yards and a touchdown on just 12 targets in his coverage. Let me be clear: He hasn’t been very good. To further that point, PFF has graded him as the third worst cornerback in coverage through two weeks. If you’re looking for a hail mary play this week, Jefferson might offer a surprise.
TEs
Jonnu Smith: You want to hear something crazy? Smith has exactly 12 air yards on the season. The ball has traveled 12 yards from the line of scrimmage to his hands on 12 targets. He’s making everything happen after the catch. His 87 yards after the catch is the most among tight ends, while the closest one has 74 yards after the catch. That’s my only concern with Smith, who ranks 11th among tight ends in targets. But make no mistake about it – he’s a physical specimen who creates after the catch. The Vikings were the worst matchup in the league for tight ends last year, but last year seems so long ago for this defense that continually loses pieces. They lost linebacker Anthony Barr last week, and it didn’t help them slow down Mo Alie-Cox who racked up six catches for 111 yards against them. There was a game last year where they allowed Darren Waller, another athletic tight end, to rack up 13 catches for 134 yards, too. This defense is going through some changes and it’s not like you’re going to sit Smith, who’s currently the No. 1 tight end in half PPR formats.
Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith: I know what you’re thinking… is there any separation between these two? Sadly, no. Rudolph has played four more snaps while Smith has run two more routes. It’s a 50/50 timeshare of a duo that has combined for just eight targets through the first two weeks. With that being said, there should be some production to be had in this matchup. The Titans have now allowed 14 different tight ends to finish as top-15 options against them since the start of the 2019 season (span of 18 games), including both Tyler Eifert and Noah Fant to start this year, as they both found the end zone. The 2.06 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to this point would’ve been the second most in football last year, and again, they allowed 1.90 PPR points per target in 2019 (seventh most), so it’s not like they were slowing down the position much then, either. If you’re looking for a desperation tournament play at tight end, Smith would make sense considering he’s coming off a four-target game, while Rudolph saw just one.
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Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers
QBs
Teddy Bridgewater: I don’t think we should be upset about the state of the Panthers offense after they’ve averaged 23.5 points per game against the Raiders and Bucs, but we can’t be excited, either. Losing Christian McCaffrey will change the look of this offense in more ways than most know. On top of that, they’re playing a Chargers defense that’s held Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to just 36 offensive points in the two games combined. Mahomes did break the 300-yard barrier, but it took him 47 attempts to get there while averaging a measly 6.4 yards per attempt. The 5.96 yards per attempt the Chargers have allowed ranks as the second-lowest mark to only the 49ers. They allowed a pedestrian 7.30 yards per attempt last year, but the addition of Chris Harris Jr. has proven to be a major one. It’s tough to see how the Panthers even get to their team-implied total of 18.8 points, so feel free to simply avoid Bridgewater in this matchup.
Justin Herbert: No one knew he was going to start last week, including him, so when you see him complete 22-of-33 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, you sit up in your chair. The Chargers offensive line did a great job keeping him protected, as he was sacked just twice on 38 dropbacks. The Panthers defense doesn’t have a single sack through two games, so that’s good. It’s pressure that threw Herbert off when I watched his college film. When he stands tall, there’s likely no one with better mechanics. It’s tough to see him asked to do much in this game, though, as the Panthers have allowed 243 yards and six touchdowns on the ground to running backs through two games. Dating back to last year, they’ve allowed 33 rushing touchdowns to running backs, while the next closest team has allowed 19 of them. Herbert has some mobility to his game as well, and he showed it rushing for 18 yards and a touchdown last week. There will be some games we’ll look to him, but there’s a reason the Panthers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks through two games.
RBs
Mike Davis: With fantasy MVP Christian McCaffrey out for 4-6 weeks, Davis figures to be the starting running back for the next month or so. He only netted one carry in relief last week, but he saw eight targets, catching all of them for 74 yards. Davis used to be considered a third-down back who could be mixed in on early downs, so it’s good to see the Panthers realize his potential through the air. The downside is that the Chargers defense awaits, and they’ve been murderous through two weeks, allowing just 0.63 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the fourth-lowest number in the league. The 3.94 yards per target they’ve allowed is ridiculous, especially when you know they’ve played against Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first two games. The 46 touches that running backs have totaled is also the fifth-lowest mark in the league, and that’s despite teams running 68.5 plays per game against them. He’s still a starting running back who’s likely locked into 15 touches, so he belongs in the middling RB3 territory.
Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley: Guess who ranks sixth in the NFL in carries? Ekeler… and Kelley. They both have 35 carries through two games. Ekeler has been more efficient and has two more targets, but Kelley is a real thing in fantasy. He has the same number of carries as fellow rookies Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor. Here’s a crazy stat: Kelley totaled 23 carries in Week 2. Melvin Gordon didn’t hit that number in any game through his last two years with the Chargers. Want more good news for these backs? A robust 56.1 percent of the production the Panthers have allowed to skill-position players has gone to running backs. No other team in the league has a number higher than 50.2 percent. Running backs have averaged 34.9 more PPR points per game than quarterbacks have against this Panthers defense. It’s a limited sample size, sure, but you get the point. They’ve now allowed 33 rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last 18 games, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 19 in that span. Kelley has eight carries inside the red zone, while Ekeler has four to his name. I’m still siding with Ekeler as the one to play considering his passing-game usage, but the gap is shrinking. Ekeler needs to be played as a sturdy high-end RB2 while Kelley should be considered a high-end RB3, at minimum with the role he’s walked into.
WRs
D.J. Moore: It’s clear that Moore is still the same highly-targeted receiver in Joe Brady’s offense as he was in Scott Turner’s last year, as his 22 targets rank fourth among wide receivers. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, and while those will come, it may not be in Week 3. The Chargers incredible cornerback duo of Chris Harris Jr. and Casey Hayward awaits, though there’s a twist to what we thought. The Chargers have deployed Harris in the slot, which means Michael Davis is starting on the perimeter. The Chargers have still allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per target (1.36) to wide receivers, and they were the fourth-best team in the league against wide receivers last year, too. It helps that they’ve faced just 15.8 wide receiver targets per game in that stretch. You can’t bench Moore with all the targets he’s getting, but you need to understand how tough of a matchup this is, knocking him down into low-end WR2 territory. I definitely prefer him over Anderson considering Moore will match up with Davis more than he will Hayward, unless they shadow Moore, which seems dangerous to leave Anderson in Davis’ coverage all game.
Robby Anderson: It appears that Matt Rhule and Joe Brady had a big role planned for Anderson when they signed him to that two-year deal this offseason. It was the best thing for his production, as he’s tallied 15 receptions for 223 yards and a touchdown, enough to make him the No. 5 receiver in PPR formats. We’ve definitely seen “boom” performances from Anderson in the past but they were usually throughout the season and not back-to-back. Now having at least eight targets in two straight games to open his Panthers career, it’s a good sign of things to come. Unfortunately, the Chargers are not a defense to attack with wide receivers, as they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points to them in 2020, and that’s coming off last season’s No. 4 finish. They added Chris Harris Jr. to the mix, which certainly helps compensate for the loss of safety Derwin James on the back end, though that’s where Tyreek Hill beat them last week. He’d totaled just four catches for 45 scoreless yards on 10 targets before that fourth-quarter bomb that went for a 45-yard touchdown. That’s why it’s so hard to sit someone like Anderson, as he also presents that one-play upside, and when he’s getting eight-plus opportunities per game, the chances rise. The Chargers did allow just six pass plays of 40-plus yards last year, so it’s far from a certainty. He’s turning into a WR3, though he comes with bust risk in this matchup knowing he’ll see Casey Hayward the most, who might be a top-five cornerback in the league.
Curtis Samuel: With Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup, I’m guessing the Chargers get Samuel a lot more involved in the backfield. He’s totaled five carries to this point while getting 10 targets (just two in Week 2), so it should be fair to project him for 10 opportunities moving forward. The Chargers have surprisingly gone with Michael Davis on the perimeter and moved Chris Harris Jr. into the slot over Desmond King, who’s been a sturdy presence in the slot over the last few years. King even went to social media this week, asking why he’s not on the field. It’s a good question. Davis is a former undrafted free agent who’s been competent, but Harris proved last year he’s capable of handling perimeter receivers, so why then don’t go with a combination of Casey Hayward, Harris, and King? I don’t know. But Harris is a real problem for Samuel, as he’s one of the best cornerback in the league. He got burned on a 54-yard touchdown last week, but it required an insane throw by Patrick Mahomes to get done, something we won’t see Bridgewater doing. Samuel gets a bump in appeal with McCaffrey out, but the matchup isn’t a good one, making him a risky WR4/5.
Keenan Allen: How happy was Allen to see Justin Herbert under center? He was targeted 10 times by the rookie, connecting on seven of them for 96 yards, while the rest of the receivers combined for just six targets. There was an episode of Hard Knocks this preseason where I watched Herbert go over to Allen and said something to the effect of, “I’m just here to get the ball to you, man. Consider me your assistant,” or something like to that effect. It’s clear he’s a fan of Allen’s game. The Panthers have Corn Elder covering the slot, a third-year cornerback who’s seen just 10 career targets in his coverage. On those targets, he’s allowed seven catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns. When the Chargers aren’t running the ball all over the Panthers, they should be targeting Allen over the middle of the field. Knowing Allen saw a 30.3 percent target share in Herbert’s first start, you should feel confident starting him as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 with a solid floor.
Mike Williams: It wasn’t the best week for Williams, as it seemed rookie quarterback Justin Herbert favored Keenan Allen rather than taking one-on-one shots down the field, though he still did target him over 16 yards down the field. On the year, Williams now has 229 air yards, which ranks as the 10th-most among wide receivers. The Panthers have only seen 26 wide receiver targets through two weeks, but have allowed a massive 15.06 yards per reception on them, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Williams plays on both sides of the formation, so he’ll see a mixture of Donte Jackson and Rasul Douglas in coverage. Jackson allowed a robust 16.9 yards per reception in his coverage last year. He has 4.32-second speed, but he’s just 5-foot-10 and 180 pounds. Williams can win that matchup. Douglas certainly has better size (6-2, 209) to handle Williams, but he’s slow (4.59-second speed) and allowed 15.7 yards per reception in his coverage as well. The only concern about Williams in this match is the targets. If they’re there, he’ll produce. This could be a two-touchdown type game if they really wanted, but after seeing just four targets in Herbert’s debut, we have to keep him in the boom-or-bust WR4 range.
TEs
Ian Thomas: We got the hint after Week 1 that this may not be a tight end friendly offense under Joe Brady when Thomas saw just one target, but now that we’ve seen him get zero targets in the follow-up game, you’re good to let him go. The Panthers tight ends have combined for just 4-of-76 targets to this point.
Hunter Henry: It didn’t matter who the quarterback was for the Chargers when it came to Henry, who saw the exact same eight targets in each game. His 156 yards through two weeks ranks second among tight ends. Sadly, tight ends haven’t produced against the new defensive scheme in Carolina, as they’ve allowed a miniscule 1.06 PPR points per target on the season. It’s a very small sample size but allowing just 58 yards on 13 targets is good no matter which way you slice it. When you find out those tight ends were Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski, and O.J. Howard, you should be even more impressed. The Bucs and Raiders totaled just 65 pass attempts in the two games against the Panthers, too, so it’s not likely that this game brings a lot of volume. You’re starting Henry every week with the targets he’s getting, but based on what we’ve seen from this defense, you need to temper expectations to low-end TE1 territory.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
QBs
Sam Darnold: How long will it take before the Jets relieve Adam Gase of his head coaching duties? Haven’t we seen enough of this to end it before Darnold’s career is ruined? He’s not someone you’re considering in fantasy leagues anymore, as they’re running just 57.5 plays per game, and Darnold has zero pass catchers. Meanwhile, the Colts opponents are averaging just 47.0 plays per game. No other team in the league has faced fewer than 53.5 plays per game. The Colts are also sacking the opposing quarterback on 13.2 percent of their dropbacks, which is the highest in the league. Through two weeks, the Colts defense has allowed 59.6 fantasy points per game to their opponents… that’s all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends combined. You’re not playing Darnold.
Philip Rivers: First it was Marlon Mack, and now it’s Parris Campbell. The Colts skill-position players are dropping like flies. After trusting Rivers to drop back and throw the ball 46 times in Week 1, they reeled him back in for Week 2 as he threw just 25 pass attempts. There was just one game during the entire 2019 season where he threw the ball fewer than 28 times. Does Frank Reich attack the weakness of the Jets defense, or do they play it close to the vest and keep the ball on the ground? The Jets have allowed a ridiculously high 75.3 percent of passes be completed, but teams have chosen to run the ball on 43.6 percent of plays against them, which is the 13th-highest percentage in the league. We’ve seen both Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo throw for two touchdowns against them in the first two weeks, which is something that only happened six times in 2019 (multiple passing touchdowns). Some would be surprised that under Gregg Williams (span of 18 games), the Jets defense has allowed just four quarterbacks average more than 8.0 yards per attempt. Rivers should offer a floor of 250 passing yards and a touchdown, but I don’t know if he has much of a ceiling here. He’s a middling QB2 in a good matchup.
RBs
Frank Gore: Only in 2020 would we see a 37-year-old Frank Gore get 21 carries in a game where the Jets lost 31-13. He’s averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per carry and has scored a touchdown on two of his last 349 carries, but yeah, let’s not find out what else we have on the roster. Stop trying to understand the Jets. No one does. Running backs have averaged a league-low 20.5 touches through two games against the Colts, and they haven’t done much with them, as the 189 total yards allowed to the position is the fifth lowest in all of football. When you add in the Jets 16.5-point implied total, and you have yourself a running back unit to fade. Unless you’re in a league where you’re actively trying to score in between 4-6 points a week with your running back, you shouldn’t roster Gore.
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone, or someone is messing with me. Hines totaled 15 touches in a game that was close throughout with Marlon Mack in the lineup for 1.5 quarters, but then totaled one touch in a game where Mack was on injured reserve. Cool story, Colts. Meanwhile, Taylor didn’t see a single carry until the mid-second quarter in Week 1, but then received 26 carries in Week 2. I really hope there’s more clarity this week, as it makes no sense to me. The only explanation is that Hines doesn’t have a role when the Colts are well ahead, which is why they gave Jordan Wilkins nine carries in Week 2. They’re double-digit favorites this week. What happens when your offense averages 68.0 plays per game and your opponent allows 70.0 plays per game? Fantasy points, that’s what. The Jets run defense has been very good under Gregg Williams, as they allowed just 3.12 yards per carry through 17 games coming into Week 2. The wheels came off against the 49ers in that game though, as they allowed a few big runs that netted 184 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries. There’s a lot to dissect here because the Jets aren’t the same defense they were last year, as they’ve lost safety Jamal Adams and linebacker C.J. Mosley this offseason. Things can change quickly with teams trending in the direction the Jets are, so when you factor that in, combined with a 27-point team-implied total, Taylor is a must-start high-end RB2 who can reach top-five numbers if last week was a sign of things to come for the Jets. Hines is a lot trickier because the gamescript should be similar to last week’s game where he got exactly one touch. It’s starting to feel like a Tarik Cohen situation where you want him used more than he actually is. The Jets did allow the 11th-most fantasy points through the air to running backs last year, but again, Hines needs touches to get there. Consider him an RB4 where we hope last week was a fluke.
WRs
Jamison Crowder: It seems like Crowder might be held out another week with his hamstring injury, as Adam Gase described the situation as “up in the air” during his Monday call. Seeing as he was ruled out early last week, you shouldn’t take it for granted that he plays this week. He’s the only Jets receiver worth considering at this point if he plays, though there would be plenty of risk attached to him. Despite their opponents targeting wide receivers just 28 times (third fewest in the league), the Colts have allowed 228 yards and three touchdowns to them. The 2.17 PPR points per target ranks as the sixth most on the young season. Kenny Moore is the cornerback they have cover slot receivers and he’s done a good job for them over the last four years, allowing 7.07 yards per target and a touchdown every 48.3 targets. Even if Crowder suits up, he’s a risky WR4 and one who could leave you with a zero if he aggravates his injury. *Update* He’s been ruled OUT for this game.
T.Y. Hilton: I said last week that if you couldn’t trust Hilton against the Vikings, then when could you? After a three-catch, 28-yard performance, you can’t be feeling great. Through two games with Rivers in plus matchups, Hilton currently sits as the WR66 in fantasy, right in between Curtis Samuel and Tre’Quan Smith, just like we all expected. The loss of Parris Campbell surely can’t hurt his target floor moving forward. The Jets perimeter cornerback duo of Blessuan Austin and Pierre Desir is another one of the least talented units in football, as the duo has combined to allow 10-for-13 passing for 97 yards and two touchdowns through two weeks. The issue comes down to how many times the Colts will actually need to throw the ball but knowing the Jets’ opponents have averaged 70.0 plays per game, we should see at least 30 pass attempts out of Rivers here. Hilton may have hit the point where he’s just not the same player, but he doesn’t need to be to post WR3/4 numbers in this game.
Michael Pittman: With Parris Campbell out of the lineup, Pittman will be a full-time player. That started when Campbell exited last week and allowed Pittman to see six targets in Week 2, which may not sound like much, but it led the wide receivers, and he was highly questionable coming into that game. He’s been playing on both sides of the formation, but he was on the left side about 60 percent last week. That’s where Blessuan Austin is playing, a second-year cornerback who’s the more talented one of the Jets perimeter duo. Since being asked to play a bigger role towards the end of last year, he’s allowed just 6.77 yards per target in his coverage and one touchdown on 43 targets. He’s 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, so he should be able to at least contest Pittman’s targets. We’re expecting a run-heavy gameplan from the Colts, but with Pittman being a full-time player, he needs to be considered most weeks. The matchup is decent, though I think I’m okay waiting until we see him truly breakout to put him into lineups as anything more than a hail mary WR5.
Zach Pascal: With Parris Campbell going to IR, we saw Pascal play 40 of his 63 snaps in the slot, which can be beneficial to his efficiency moving forward. He’s only seen seven targets through two games, so it’s not like you’re seriously considering him outside of deep leagues, and the Jets best cornerback, Brian Poole, is the one who plays there. He’s been a godsend for the Jets in the slot since arriving last year, allowing just 4.80 yards per target and one touchdown on 66 targets. If you look at the slot cornerbacks who played at least 100 snaps in coverage last year, Poole ranked as the eighth best when you go by QB Rating when targeted. Pascal is going to have some solid weeks, but it’s not a great matchup with Poole.
TEs
Chris Herndon: If you started Herndon last week because of what we talked about here, I’m sorry. I was right there with you. We were quickly reminded what it’s like to play a Jets skill-position player and we instantly regret it. But when he caught 6-of-7 targets in Week 1, and then we found out that Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell wouldn’t play, the vital signs were good. Four targets, one catch, and five yards later, we’re wondering what happened. Now on to play the Colts, who have allowed just 11 yards to tight ends this year… on seven targets. They weren’t a matchup to target with tight ends last year, as they allowed just one tight end all year finish with more than 14.0 PPR points, and none of them finished with more than 73 yards. It’s hard saying Herndon doesn’t have any appeal considering the targets have to go somewhere, but as we found out last week, it’s hardly a guarantee they go his way. It does help that the Colts just placed Malik Hooker on injured reserve, which hurts their safety combo. Herndon should remain in the TE2 conversation, but it’s tough to trust anyone on this team right now.
Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox: We don’t know what’s going on with Doyle as of now, but Frank Reich said that it’s too early to tell early in the week. But one thing is certain, and that’s that Alie-Cox carved himself out a big role. He torched the usually tough Vikings defense for 5/111/0 on just six targets, and now with Parris Campbell on the shelf, that opens up more targets over the middle of the field. The Jets were one of the best in the NFL at defending tight ends last year, but lost Jamal Adams, who took on a lot of that responsibility. They’ve only seen 12 targets to the tight end position through two weeks, and those have amounted to 10 catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns. If Doyle plays, it’s going to be tough to trust either of them because they may cancel each other out, and it’s clear the Colts value Doyle as an every-down player. However, if Doyle misses another game, Alie-Cox should be considered a borderline TE1. It should be noted that Doyle missed practice on Wednesday. *Update* Doyle was upgraded in practice as the week went on, and it appears he’s on track to play, meaning both tight ends are too risky to trust outside of TE2 range.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
QBs
Dak Prescott: Somehow, Prescott has 716 yards passing through two games but just two passing touchdowns. Of the five other quarterbacks who’ve thrown for 600-plus yards, four of them have at least six passing touchdowns. Fortunately, Prescott has rushed for three touchdowns, propping up his fantasy numbers. Ready for the fun part? Cowboys games have netted 147.0 total plays per game, which is the highest in the NFL. Both them and their opponents are averaging over 70 plays. The Seahawks opponents are averaging 73.5 plays per game. This could get fun. They may be blitzing like crazy or whatever Jamal Adams said, but they’ve generated just two sacks through two games. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and even better, we know who he targets. The Seahawks have allowed more points to wide receivers than any other team in the league. It surely helps that they’ve thrown the ball 98 times over two weeks, but that all has to be factored in. We saw signs of this coming last year when they allowed three different quarterbacks to throw for 395-plus yards. On top of all that, the Seahawks just lost starting safety Marquise Blair and linebacker Bruce Irvin for the year with ACL injuries last week. Let the flood gates open. Prescott should have a top-three week.
Russell Wilson: He now has 11 incompletions on the year. He has nine touchdowns. And let’s not forget that one of those incompletions was on the ball Greg Olsen let bounce right off his helmet for a touchdown. It’s truly comical that Wilson has never received a single MVP vote. The Cowboys secondary has only faced 67 pass attempts through two weeks, which ranks as the 13th-fewest, but they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That’s largely in part to the fact that they’ve allowed 0.55 fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing). They’re generating very little pass-rush, as they’ve sacked the opposing quarterback just 2.9 percent of the time, and their top pass-rusher, Demarcus Lawrence, is dealing with a knee injury. If they give Wilson and his receivers time, he’s going to eat them alive. It also helps that the Cowboys opponents have averaged a massive 72.0 plays per game. The only concerning part is that opponents have chose to run the ball 51.4 percent of the time against the Cowboys, which is the fifth-highest percentage in the league, and we know Brian Schottenheimer likes to run the ball in positive gamescripts. Still, the Cowboys can put points on the board and the Seahawks have a team-implied total of 30 points. Start Wilson as your QB1 and sit back while the points rack up.
RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: Through two games, it’s fair to say Mike McCarthy won’t be making this a timeshare any time soon. Elliott has racked up 55 opportunities while Pollard has just eight of them. If you have Pollard on your roster, don’t drop him, as he’s one of the most valuable bench stashes out there. The Seahawks front seven is not a particularly good unit, and they got worse when they lost Bruce Irvin this week to an ACL injury, but they’ve allowed a league-low 92 rushing yards through two games. Playing against Todd Gurley and Sony Michel will help, though holding those two teams to just 2.88 yards per carry is an accomplishment. That’s also likely why opponents have gone with a run play just 31.3 percent of the time against the Seahawks (second-lowest mark in the league), because their secondary can be picked on. But again, Elliott isn’t in the same category as Gurley or Michel. There were 10 running backs who finished as the RB14 or better against them last year, including four 30-point performances. This is a game where Prescott should shine, but you shouldn’t be shocked if Elliott changes opinions on how good the Seahawks run defense actually is.
Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde: Week 2 was more of the timeshare we envisioned before the season started, as Carson totaled 20 touches to Hyde’s seven touches. When the ball is in his hands, Carson looks good… refreshed. They’re working to get him in space in the passing game, too, which certainly raises his floor. The Cowboys have faced a league-high 65 rushing attempts through two weeks, but they haven’t allowed a whole lot of efficiency, as they’ve allowed just 3.40 yards per carry and 1.30 PPR points per target. That amounts to just 0.61 PPR points per opportunity to this point, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. While the Cowboys were a team to run the ball against last year, things change under a new coordinator, and Mike Nolan has apparently put more emphasis on stopping the run. Carson should still be started as a high-end RB2, but just know that running backs haven’t been particularly efficient against them to this point. Hyde isn’t someone who can be trusted outside of maybe a game the Seahawks are expected to win by double digits.
WRs
Amari Cooper: Despite not scoring a touchdown yet, Cooper sits as the WR16 on the year. He’s looked solid and not hampered by the injury we talked about during the preseason. While Gallup and Lamb fight to be the No. 2 option, it appears Cooper’s role is safe. The Seahawks are the definition of a funnel defense, as they’ve allowed running backs just 16.0 PPR points per game but have allowed wide receivers 67.5 fantasy points per game. You read that right. Seriously, I double checked just to be sure. Through two games, they’ve allowed 135.1 fantasy points to wide receivers. The combination of Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar was supposed to be a positive, but it hasn’t to this point, as they’ve combined to allow 22-of-33 passing for 333 yards and a touchdown in their coverage. Cooper will see the most of Griffin, who is the cornerback fellow Alabama route runner Calvin Ridley tagged for most of his 9/130/2 against. In a game with a 54.5-point total, there’s going to be some passing and some points scored, and you’re not going to want to miss them. Cooper should be played as a WR1 until further notice.
Michael Gallup: The kneejerk reaction to the Cowboys drafting Lamb was that Gallup would take a big hit. We all got past that and said it was realistic to see Lamb in the Randall Cobb role, with maybe a slight portion of the tight end targets that had vacated. Unfortunately, the initial reaction may have been correct. Gallup has 10 targets through two games while Lamb has 15 of them. There was just one stretch of two games where Gallup had 10 targets last year, so we’re officially worried. He’s typically at LWR, which means he’ll see the most of Quinton Dunbar, the Seahawks big acquisition at cornerback. The Seahawks as a whole have struggled to stop wide receivers, but Dunbar has been at least competent. If the last two years are a sign of anything, he’s the most talented cornerback on the team. Again, this team has allowed 67.5 PPR points per game to wide receivers, so there’s production to be had, but Gallup is at the stage where he almost needs to prove it before he can be trusted as a top-30 wide receiver. He’s just a borderline WR3/4 option despite the plus matchup, though the bright side is that the Seahawks have allowed six top-36 wide receivers through two games.
CeeDee Lamb: It’s odd to think that none of the Cowboys receivers have scored a touchdown this season, especially considering they’ve combined for 50 targets through two games. Oddly enough, the Seahawks have allowed a league-leading 731 yards to wide receivers (no other team has allowed more than 524 yards) but have only allowed two touchdowns to them. Lamb has been running 91.4 percent of his routes from the slot, which means he’ll match up with last year’s fourth-round pick Ugo Amadi, who hasn’t been what you’d describe as great on his limited playing time. He’s only seen 22 targets in coverage throughout his 123 snaps in coverage, allowing 19 of them to be completed for 164 yards, though none of them have gone for touchdowns yet. He’s only playing because safety/cornerback Marquise Blair is out for the year with a torn ACL. This is a matchup that Lamb should be able to take advantage of, making him a decent WR3 play this week.
D.K. Metcalf: Prior to the start of the season, I said that there’s a chance we see Metcalf truly breakout as a top-10 receiver. Through two weeks, he’s flashed some of the reason we loved him and currently sits as the WR7. Not only is he averaging seven targets, but they’re coming from Russell Wilson, and he has one-play upside. Despite being matched up with Stephon Gilmore last week, he managed to walk away with four catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. He’s matchup-proof until further notice. The Cowboys have not been a matchup to avoid, either. Through two games, they’re allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per target to wide receivers. The Cowboys cornerbacks play sides, and they flip-flopped from Week 1 to Week 2, and it seemed to screw something up with Chidobe Awuzie, because he allowed two touchdowns in his coverage. He allowed just three touchdowns all of last season… on 90 targets. He also suffered an apparent hamstring injury in that game and may not play this week. The other cornerback is rookie Trevon Diggs, who has allowed 7-of-11 passing for 123 yards through two games. In a game they’re projected for 30 points, there’s little reason to fade Metcalf, who should be considered a low-end WR1/WR2 at the very least.
Tyler Lockett: While Metcalf may be the higher-scoring receiver, Lockett has been mightily impressive catching 15-of-16 targets himself while totaling 159 yards and a touchdown. We know he’s the primary slot receiver for Wilson, which is a completely different role, but one that he excels in. The Cowboys have 2017 third-round draft pick Jourdan Lewis covering the slot, someone who’s been trending down since coming into the league. Since the start of last year, he’s allowed 44-of-62 passing for 568 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. That 9.16 yards per target is mighty high for a slot cornerback, which is likely why they had Anthony Brown starting in Week 1, only to move him to IR prior to Week 2. When you are playing against a backup cornerback with Russell Wilson as your quarterback, you should expect results. Start Lockett as you normally would, which is a rock-solid WR2 with top-10 upside in any given game.
TEs
Dalton Schultz: What an incredible starting debut out of Schultz, who caught 9-of-10 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. The best part is that no defense can be overly concerned with him considering the other options available to Dak Prescott. While not every game is going to feature 47 pass attempts and 450 yards from Prescott, this week’s game actually has a higher total than last week’s game. The Seahawks were horrendous against tight ends last year, but went out and traded for Jamal Adams this offseason, which certainly helped. While slowing Ryan Izzo was no tough task, the Seahawks held Hayden Hurst to just three catches for 38 yards in their first game, and it took a circus grab for him to make it over 15 yards. A league-low 9.2 percent of targets have gone to the tight end position against the Seahawks to this point. Schultz should definitely be rostered but don’t automatically assume he’s a can’t-miss starter in this matchup. He’s still on the streaming radar in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game.
Greg Olsen and Will Dissly: After Olsen allowed a pass to go right through his hands and off his helmet for a pick-six on the first drive, he didn’t see a target for the rest of the game. He played 45 snaps, so it’s not like he was benched or anything. Still, to see him and Dissly, who’s playing half the snaps, combine for just two targets, it’s worrisome. The Cowboys have been a mixed bag, as they held Tyler Higbee to just 3/40/0 in their first matchup, but then allowed Hayden Hurst to tag them for 5/72/1 in Week 2. It’s still a small sample size, but when you combine those two together, you have eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown on just 12 targets, so it’s not a matchup I’d say is a must avoid. I’m more concerned about the targets between the two of them, but knowing the tight ends combined for seven targets in Week 1, we may want to consider Week 2 a fluke. Olsen is still playing the most snaps, making him the one you’d want to play, if any. He’s a TE2 who comes with some risk.
