Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean that the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it — or if it’s indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing, and I’ll give you my take on them as possible plays or fades this week.
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Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. DET $7,900 (+$400)
After throwing up a sultry 30.7 points against a hapless Vikings secondary, Rodgers sees a modest jump in price against a Detroit team that just allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for 242 yards and three touchdowns. Some defensive losses from 2019 — most notably Darius Slay — give us another enticing entry on the horizon.
Carson Wentz (PHI) vs. LAR $7,300 (-$400)
Wentz got sacked a career-high eight times on Sunday against a tough Washington front. His offensive line was missing three projected starters, so that might be why. The health of Wentz’s offensive line will be crucial for Week 2. Going against Aaron Donald and the Rams will be a mess for him if they are playing the majority of backups again, as the Rams just held Dak Prescott to 17.6 points. This is currently a fade for me at the market price.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram (BAL) at HOU $6,200 (-$800)
The Ravens-Browns game quickly got out of hand, as Dobbins took relief along with the goal line touches. However, I’m buying the dip on this one. Tied for the highest Vegas implied total of the week at 52.5 with an implied team total of 29.5, I’m expecting the touchdown variance to turn back into his favor, as he still led the backfield in touches.
Joshua Kelley (LAC) vs. KC $5,500 (+$1,000)
A heavy spike in price after an impressive outing against the Bengals seems appropriate, as Kelley took hold of the 1B committee role to Austin Ekeler’s 1A, and he secured the high-value goal line carries even in a tight game. Facing a Chiefs defense that is usually running-back friendly seems enticing, but Chris Jones and Frank Clark should create more short-yardage and goal-line issues than a Bengals line without Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Geno Atkins. You are chasing another touchdown performance for the upside if you roll with Kelley.
Wide Receivers
Breshad Perriman (NYJ) vs. SF $5,200 (-$600)
Getting shut down by the Bills’ excellent defense was not much of a surprise, and another tough matchup is on the horizon with the 49ers. Jamison Crowder and Chris Herndon led the group in targets by a good margin, and the possibility of Denzel Mims’ return to health could also muddy up this receiving group. There are likely better options here.
Russell Gage (ATL) at DAL $5,400 (+$600)
Gage had a 12-9-114-0 line for a 23 percent target share against the Seahawks. At this rate, he appears to be at a decent bargain for a game tied for the highest point total at 52.5. The Falcons are once again underdogs, and that should yield a pass-happy script. Gage could have another week of back-end utility.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (WAS) at ARI $4,700 (+$700)
Thomas showed us that he is Washington’s starting tight end, and he gets a relatively nice matchup against a Cardinals’ defense that allowed the most PPG to tight ends in 2019. Even after the price increase, he is the 25th-ranked tight end in pricing, and he’s a nice option to target upside-wise for if you’re looking for a budget option at the position.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.
