It’s finally here! The 2020 TOUR Championship with its $15 million first-place prize will start Friday and conclude on Labor Day at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Only 30 golfers are playing this week, and Dustin Johnson will begin with a two-stroke advantage over Jon Rahm based on the FedExCup standings. DJ will also be the highest-priced golfer this week on FanDuel at an astounding $14,400 price tag. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. BMW Champion and the world’s number two golfer, Jon Rahm ($12,500), and Justin Thomas ($12,000) are the two golfers in the 12K range. Webb Simpson ($11,300) and Collin Morikawa ($10,800) round out FanDuel’s top five highest-priced golfers.

This is a no-cut playoff event, so all of the golfers will play four rounds. Unlike all other PGA events, the golfers this week will begin with different scores based on their FedExCup position. Because of the limited field, no-cut format, and staggered starting scores, there will be much more volatility than normal. It will be more difficult than normal to differentiate your lineups and gain ownership leverage in GPPs. Also, don’t worry about your profit until late Monday afternoon. The swings are huge each day. This is a fun tournament to watch as a fan, but you can go crazy following your lineups. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! It’s playoff time!

Watch the tournament live on Golf Channel with FuboTV

Tournament Notes

• The East Lake Golf Club is located in Atlanta, Georgia, and is a Donald Ross-designed course. Rees Jones renovated it in 1994. It’s a par-70 course measuring 7,346 yards.
• Its Bermuda greens are average in size (6,300 square feet) and tend to run a 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Last year the greens were very fast and firm.
• The Zoysia fairways are narrow, averaging around 27 yards in width.
• Three of the four Par 3s are 210 yards. The shortest Par 3 is 197 yards long.
• Half of the 12 Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, with the longest measuring 520 yards.
• There are two Par 5s. They measure 525 yards and 590 yards, and they have a BoB rate of better than 50%.
• Typically, golfers will use their wedges on six to eight approach shots.
• The winning score has been between -8 and -13 each of the last 11 years. Rory McIlroy (2019 & 2016), Xander Schauffele (2017), and Billy Horschel (2014) are the only former champions in this week’s field.
• Top-10 Starting Positions: Dustin Johnson (-10), Jon Rahm (-8), Justin Thomas (-7), Webb Simpson (-6), Collin Morikawa (-5), Daniel Berger (-4), Harris English (-4), Bryson DeChambeau (-4), Sungjae Im (-4), and Hideki Matsuyama (-4).
• In 2018, six golfers shot between -6 and -11. Last year, six golfers shot between -5 and -13 (actual scoring).
• The biggest gain last year with the staggered start was Chez Reavie, who finished eighth (-6) after starting T21 (-1). The biggest slides last year were Patrick Cantlay going from second (-8) to T21 (+1) and Dustin Johnson going from T11 (-3) to 29th (+10).
• Last year’s winner, Rory McIlory, started fifth (-5) and finished with a total of -18 (-13 actual score).
• This year, DJ will start with a score of -10 and be two shots ahead of Jon Rahm. Last year, Justin Thomas was in that position and ended up finishing third at -13 (-3 actual score).

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
The best golfers in the world are playing this week, and they are the best because they normally have complete games. This course requires an all-around game to perform well. My customized overall stat model measures all stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc.) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. The best golfers, in terms of stats, for my customized model this week (in ranked order) are Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Webb Simpson, and Tony Finau.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, and Collin Morikawa. DJ has won or finished runner-up in each of his last three starts. Tony Finau has three top-five finishes in his last five events.

No-Cut Events
In a no-cut event, scoring matters more than cut-making ability. Each golfer is guaranteed to play four rounds of golf, and one bad round doesn’t necessarily doom a golfer (or your lineup). In looking at the last 16 no-cut events played the past two years, the best golfers (in ranked order with average strokes gained/round) are Rory McIlroy (1.9), Justin Thomas (1.8), Xander Schauffele (1.6), Jon Rahm (1.4), Hideki Matsuyama (1.3), Daniel Berger (1.3), Patrick Reed (1.1), Sebastian Munoz (1.0), Tyrrell Hatton (0.9), and Dustin Johnson (0.8). All three of Justin Thomas’ wins this season have been at no-cut events. Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, and Rory McIlroy also have no-cut wins this season.

Course History
In looking at my customized course history model from the past five years at East Lake, the best golfers (in ranked order) have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Kisner, Daniel Berger, and Webb Simpson. In the last three years, Justin Thomas is the only golfer to have multiple top-five finishes. However, Rory McIlroy didn’t play here in 2017, but he has multiple wins in his last three starts (2019 and 2016). When looking at who has finished in the top 10, that list is larger. Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele are the only golfers to do this each of the past three years. Kevin Kisner, Hideki Matsuyama, and Rory McIlroy have all finished in the top 10 twice in the last three years. Rory McIlroy has three top-10 finishes in his last three starts. Dustin Johnson has three top-six finishes in his last five starts. Marc Leishman, Kevin Na, and Patrick Reed each have multiple finishes outside the top-20 in the last five years here and are probably players to avoid.

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

Dustin Johnson ($14,400)
What follows is mostly strategy talk because I don’t need to tell you how awesome DJ is playing right now. However, the quick summary of these paragraphs is this: I think DJ wins, but I don’t necessarily think he’s worth the price.

Now, on to my strategy thoughts. We are always faced with the question of which stud to play, but there is a unique dynamic this week. DJ is priced more than $2,000 more than we where usually see the top golfer. He is also $1,900 more than Rahm and $2,400 more than JT. We are not used to seeing this kind of discrepancy. Rahm is the world’s second-ranked golfer and just beat DJ in a playoff at the BMW. The FanDuel point differential between first and second is 10 points. That is not a big enough margin if you think DJ and Rahm (or even JT) play well and finish in the top two. If Rahm is runner-up to DJ, then you are farther ahead by playing Rahm at $1,900 less. The same can be said for JT at $2,400 less.

If you are only going to play one of the studs and choose DJ, then you are predicting that Rahm and JT will play poorly and finish outside the top five. The price differential far outpaces the finishing position probabilities of the other top players. DJ is great, but he is not that much better than the other studs. After laying out some of these scenarios, I plan on fading DJ in my cash and single-entry lineups. He’s too expensive. I plan to load up on DJ in my large-field MME contests and then mix and match with another stud. This will only give me an average of $8,200-$8,700 per player to round out my roster, but there are some great values down low with players we are not used to seeing down there. We just have to make sure that we pick the right value plays. Overall, fading DJ is dangerous, but it allows you to legitimately complete your roster with guys that have top-five potential. I also will have a lot of Webb Simpson ($11,300) because he’s my favorite player and he could make some noise.

Favorite $10,000 Play

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000)
In a vacuum, defending champion Rory McIlroy ($10,200) is probably the best play in this field. He has an amazing course history and showed some life this past week with a T12 at the BMW. However, I don’t completely trust him this week with his wife expecting a child. I will still have a fair share of him, but Hideki will my main 10K guy, especially at this price point. Hideki has some very good course history here with four top-12 finishes, including a T4 in 2018 and a fifth-place finish in 2016. He’s been decent since the restart, but he hadn’t finished inside the top-20 until his T3 at the BMW. I like how he dug deep and kept grinding last week, and it should give him some momentum going into this one. In addition to McIlroy, I also like Collin Morikawa ($10,800).

Favorite $9,000 Play

Tony Finau ($9,000)
He will be one of my highest-owned golfers this week. He is seventh in this field for fantasy scoring and eighth in total strokes gained in the last 24 rounds. He is great off-the-tee, good on approach, and has been putting well lately. He has four top-10s in his last six events. Included in this stretch is a T5 at the BMW, T4 at the PGA, and a T3 at the 3M Open. I also don’t mind Harris English ($9,800), Sungjae Im ($9,600), and Xander Schauffele ($9,500).

Favorite $8,000 Play

Scottie Scheffler ($8,600)
He is ninth in this field in total strokes gained and 10th in fantasy scoring over the last 24 rounds, yet he is priced as only the 17th most-expensive golfer. He has finished no worse than T22 in his last five events. Included in that stretch are fourth-place finishes at the NORTHERN Trust and the PGA Championship. I also like Brendon Todd ($8,900) and Joaquin Niemann ($8,400).

Favorite $7,000 Play

Kevin Kisner ($7,100)
He has five straight top-25 finishes. Certainly, that isn’t enough to get it done this week in a 30-man field. However, that demonstrates his consistency and how well he has been playing recently. Those finishes were against large fields and good competition. During that stretch, he finished T4 at the NORTHERN Trust and T3 at the Wyndham. He ranks 10th in this field in both fantasy scoring and total strokes gained in the last 24 rounds played, which makes him a tremendous bargain at the near-minimum price tag. In his last two starts at East Lake, he finished T9 last year and T3 in 2017. I also like Abraham Ancer ($7,800) and Viktor Hovland ($7,000).

Watch the tournament live on Golf Channel with FuboTV

Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can send him questions and follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.