FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (9/7)

Today’s NBA slate contains two games as per usual, with the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors starting us off and the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets completing the night. The latter game leads the night in implied total, and the Clippers should score the most points. As the games approach, make sure to keep yourself up-to-date with lineup news and injury updates.

Value Plays: Point Guard

Patrick Beverley is coming off a miserable 6.1-point performance in which he totaled only 15 minutes of playing time. While Bev hasn’t played tremendously since his return, his minutes are trending upward, and he could stand to see some positive regression in his shooting totals. Monte Morris’ ceiling is certainly capped with the Nuggets’ roster returning to health, but he is still factoring in off the bench and provides a decent scoring punch for the second unit.

Shooting Guard

Since his return to the court, Gary Harris has slowly ramped up his minutes and his usage rates. Harris is coming off a decent 19-point performance in his latest contest, though he still has yet to fully get his feet under him. Still, at his current price tag, Harris is worth an investment if you’re electing to pay up at another position. Marcus Smart is playing fantastic ball in this series against the Raptors. In four games, Smart hasn’t totaled less than 25.1 FanDuel points and has scored 26 and 26.1 in his last two. Smart is a safe bet for value with his 38-plus minutes of playing time.

Small Forward

O.G. Anunoby didn’t manage to reach value in his latest game, as he scored only 22.1 FanDuel points, but he did register 35 minutes of playing time and hasn’t played less than that number of minutes in his last three. Anunoby is such an important player to the Raptors’ starting five right now, and that ensures a strong usage rate and a ton of minutes. Jerami Grant has not played all that well in recent contests, outside of his latest, in which he totaled 34.4 FanDuel points. Expect some regression, as Grant is not likely to collect six blocks and steals once again.

Power Forward

Michael Porter Jr. is a highly risky play, but he features such a strong ceiling that he possesses tournament-winning upside on any given night. MPJ is coming off a 16-minute contest in which he totaled 25.4 FanDuel points on the back of 11 real-life points, seven rebounds, and two steals. Even though he is a defensive liability, his scoring punch is needed. Marcus Morris — like many of the names on this list — is not coming off a strong performance in his latest contest. The vet totaled only 12.6 FanDuel points in 31 minutes of playing time but has largely been a very solid player in the playoffs. In addition, the Nuggets field the worst-ranked defense that remains in the NBA playoffs.

Center

Robert Williams does not register much playing time, but he always has an impact in his small number of minutes. In this current series, Williams has totaled 18, 17, 13, and 15 minutes of playing time, and has point totals of 27, 17.8, 17.9, and 16.5 in those contests. Ivica Zubac is quietly one of the more consistent DFS options on this slate. Zubac has routinely hovered around value and continues to play solid ball for the Clippers.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,600: Is there a better playoff performer than Kawhi? Leonard hasn’t reached value in either of the first two games against Denver, but he won’t be held down for long against the worst-ranked defense remaining in the NBA playoffs.
• Kyle Lowry (TOR) $9,200: There isn’t a better value right now than Lowry. The Raptors point guard has topped 52-plus points in his last two games and scored 45.5 points in another against the Celtics. The Raptors are relying heavily on Kyle Lowry, and he’s repaid them in a massive way.
• Serge Ibaka (TOR) $6,100: Ibaka has played as well as any non-Lowry player in this series, and could see extended minutes with Marc Gasol struggling mightily. Ibaka has hovered near or above value in three of his four games against the Celtics.
• Kemba Walker (BOS) $8,300: Walker’s performances have been up-and-down throughout this series, but he’s largely been solid even if he’s missed value. Expect Kemba to step-up tonight in a crucial fifth game matchup between the two teams.
• Nikola Jokic (DEN) $9,400: Jokic has been inconsistent throughout this series with one terrible performance and one elite performance, but that’s who he is as a player — an inconsistent one with tournament-winning upside. Expect the Nuggets to keep riding their star center.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,400: Listing Tatum here is tough, mostly because the Celtics really need to capitalize on today’s contest after dropping the last two. Still, Tatum hasn’t reached value in three out of four games against the Raptors.
• Pascal Siakam (TOR) $8,400: Even though he scored 20-plus points for the first time in four games, Siakam barely reached 39 FanDuel points. Siakam has struggled throughout the playoffs, and you can expect his point totals to regress from the last contest.
• Montrezl Harrell (LAC) $5,200: Harrell’s minutes still aren’t up to par. He hasn’t topped 20 minutes of playing time in this series, and though he’s a decent per-minute producer, he’s limited in terms of his ceiling.
• Paul George (LAC) $7,800: PG13’s value is beginning to rebound, but he has only topped 40-plus points once in the last nine games. I’d wait for him to put together a stretch of decent performances.
• Jamal Murray (DEN) $8,500: Murray is coming off a strong 45.6-point performance, but he has an incredibly tough matchup throughout this series against players like Pat Bev. Expect every point earned to be a tough one.

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