DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (9/5)

As per usual, today’s slate will feature a two-game slate in which the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics begin tip-off and the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers close out the slate. The latter game leads the slate in implied total, with the Clippers leading that margin by a significant amount. Ensure you’re keeping up to date with all injury news and status updates.

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Point Guard

 
Patrick Beverley is a risk, but only due to his current playing time being limited. Pat Bev is coming off only 12 minutes of playing time in which he totaled 19.0 DraftKings points. Bev is a safe option, particularly at his price range, though his ceiling is incredibly limited with his lack of minutes thus far due to injury. Kyle Lowry feels like an absolute shoe-in at his current price tag. In three games against the Celtics, Lowry has totaled 36.5 (blowout),  41.75, and most recently exploded for 54.0 DraftKings points. Lowry has played 40 and 46 minutes in his last two games and has commanded a massive usage rate (23 shots).

Shooting Guard

 
Marcus Smart continues to perform well in place of Gordon Hayward, though his point totals are beginning to come back to life. Smart hasn’t reached value in his last two games and his price tag has actually increased, still. While Smart is a decent gamble, he likely won’t be able to repay value, though he could with his strong number of minutes and free-will to jack up shot attempts. Gary Harris is still shaking off the rust from an injury that held him out of all of the bubble’s seeding games. While Harris certainly looked rusty in his first game back, he got 24 minutes of playing time. With his current number of minutes and current price tag, Harris could absolutely return value relatively easily, though he’ll need to be monitored.

Small Forward

 
Michael Porter Jr. is a tough player to evaluate, mostly because his offensive game is superb but he’s proven to be a massive liability defensively. Still, at his current price, Porter could prove to be a strong value if he receives the necessary minutes to produce. The Nuggets will need all the scoring prowess they can get against the Clippers — that’s where MPJ factors in. No, O.G. Anunoby is not only making this list for his epic game-winning last-second shot from the last game against the Celtics. Instead, he makes it on this list because he’s provided strong value in three games straight and has played in 33 (blowout), 38, and 45 minutes in those games. His workload right now is top-tier and mitigates so much of the risk with the young-but-talented defensive stalwart.

Power Forward

 
Marcus Morris is coming off a tremendous 33.25-point performance in which he totaled 18 real-life points and two steals. While Morris is likely to see some regression in his shooting splits (70% from the field, 80% from 3), he’s proven to be a solid contributor for the Clippers, so long as he isn’t getting ejected or suspended. Paul Millsap has not performed well recently, which is why he’s listed as a highly risky player. The vet is coming off one strong performance in his last several games, though, in which he totaled 33.25 DraftKings points and had his minutes trending upwards (24 minutes).

Center

 
The center spot offers multiple players of value, beginning with Daniel Theis. While Theis missed value in his latest game, he has managed to hit in three of his last four and hovered right near value in the game that he missed the mark. Theis is not a major factor offensively, but his minutes (30), ability to scoop up boards and defensive capabilities all allow him to produce good results. Serge Ibaka is coming off a weak 15-point performance, but has otherwise been playing outstanding basketball for the Raptors and has provided a major spark off the bench. Expect Ibaka to rebound tonight.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,400): Kawhi Leonard is simply outstanding. The only reason he didn’t reach value in his last game was that the Clippers blew the Nuggets out of the water. That could be an issue again moving forward, but Kawhi offers almost no risk factor, simply due to his playoff dominance.
• Kyle Lowry, TOR (7,800): As I mentioned above, Lowry is an easy play at this price. He’s shooting the ball a ton, he’s playing more minutes than he can handle, and he’s the heart and soul of his team. Fire this one up with confidence.
• Jaylen Brown, BOS ($7,600): This series is producing a lot of value plays, and Brown is certainly one of them. The young stud is coming off a tremendous 44.5-point performance and has figured in heavily into the Celtics’ plans this series.
• Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,300): Just like Brown, Tatum has been outstanding. While he’s coming off a game in which he struggled, he’s sure to improve on his 28% field goal percentage from last game, and that makes Tatum a very dangerous play on today’s slate.
• Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,500): The Nuggets are going to need to rely on Joker more than ever as Jamal Murray‘s matchups will prove incredibly difficult throughout this series. Joker is coming off a miserable 22.75-point performance but possesses tournament-winning upside.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Lou Williams, LAC ($6,000): Sweet Lou has not performed well recently. The veteran sixth man hasn’t topped 20-plus points in his last three games and hasn’t played a ton of minutes, either. While this price allows Lou a lot of margin for error, I’d pass until he proves worthy.
• Jamal Murray, DEN ($9,100): Murray is arguably the best playoff performer this season, but his matchups on the opposing side of this series are going to present serious problems all throughout. Murray’s 26.75-point performance in game one is an indication of it.
• Paul George, LAC ($8,200): PG13 has hit value once in his last four contests, and that came in a game in which he shot 67% from the floor and 50% from 3. PG13 simply hasn’t looked comfortable this season in the playoffs. Not yet, at least.
• Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,900): Grant is playing a strong number of minutes recently, but hasn’t hit value in his last three games and has hit value only once in his last seven games.
• Marc Gasol, TOR ($4,500): Nothing that Gasol has done in this playoff season has looked comfortable or easy. The big man is struggling to make any impact whatsoever.