Joel Bartilotta | Mon, Sep 14th 2020, 9:54am EDT

DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (9/14)

After a wild Sunday, this Monday slate is going to be completely wacky. We have three doubleheaders, with seven games making up this DK schedule. That means almost half of these will be seven-inning games, and that makes things really interesting. It’s impossible to fade those games altogether, though, but it’s something you need to be aware of.

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Value Plays: Pitcher

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Trevor Bauer (CIN)	vs. PIT	$10,800	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Low
Pablo Lopez (MIA)	vs. PHI	$7,200	⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Jesus Luzardo (OAK)	@SEA	$8,300	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium

Bauer is the best play on the board, and we’ll go over that more later.
Lopez has a 3.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home since 2018, and that always makes him interesting when pitching in Marlins Park. Not to mention, he had a 2.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his first six starts of the season.
Luzardo is one of the highest-touted prospects in baseball and should have success against a 27th-ranked Mariners offense.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	@BAL	$5,500	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Low
Jedd Gyorko (MIL)	vs. STL	$4,300	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Sean Murphy (OAK)	@SEA	$3,800	⭐⭐⭐	Medium

Freeman has been scorching recently, and we’ll talk about his exploits later.
Gyorko is batting either third or fourth in this lineup and has an OPS north of 1.000 against left-handers this season.
Picking a catcher is tough, but Murphy against a lefty is an intriguing proposition.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Mike Moustakas (CIN)	vs. PIT	$5,100	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Ozzie Albies (ATL)	@BAL	$4,400	⭐⭐⭐	Low
Marwin Gonzalez (MIN)	@CWS	$3,300	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium

Moose has been struggling this season, but he’s always a good choice against a weak right-handed pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, Moustakas has a .840 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
Albies is way too good to be this cheap. That’s certainly the case when you see that he’s averaging over 20 DK points per game across his last four outings.
Marwin has homered in back-to-back games, and that makes him enticing from his more favorable left side.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Brad Miller (STL)	@MIL	$4,900	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Eugenio Suarez (CIN)	vs. PIT	$4,400	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Josh Donaldson (MIA)	@CWS	$4,100	⭐⭐⭐	Medium

Miller is quietly having a monster year for the Cards, as he’s posted a .391 OBP, .537 SLG, and .928 OPS.
Mitch Keller is someone we want to stack against, as he owns a 6.63 ERA and 1.78 WHIP for his career. That’s bad news against a power hitter like this — Suarez has hit four dingers over his last eight games played.
Donaldson has an OBP approaching .400 since the beginning of last season and could thrive against a pitcher with a 1.30 WHIP.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Paul DeJong (STL)	@MIL	$4,700	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Marcus Semien (OAK)	@SEA	$4,300	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Low
Jazz Chisholm (MIA)	vs. PHI	$3,200	⭐⭐⭐	High

DeJong has gotten on-base in 13 of his last 15 games, accruing a .890 OPS in that span.
Semien should never be this affordable. Not only was he in MVP consideration last season, but he also gets the platoon advantage against a lefty here.
Chisholm was a stud in the minors and could have success against a struggling Vince Velasquez.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM)	OPPONENT	PRICE	MATCHUP	RISK
Ronald Acuna (ATL)	@BAL	$6,000	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Low
Max Kepler (MIN)	@CWS	$4,500	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Low
Corey Dickerson (MIA)	vs. PHI	$3,800	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Avisail Garcia (MIL)	vs. STL	$3,300	⭐⭐⭐	Medium
Phillip Ervin (SEA)	vs. OAK	$2,300	⭐⭐⭐	High

The first three guys here will be featured in the next section.
As for Garcia, he traditionally bats leadoff when the Brewers face a lefty. That alone makes him a good option.
Ervin has been killing lefties throughout his career, generating a .349 BA, .628 SLG, and 1.038 OPS against them last season. Good luck finding that from a $2,300 player.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

Trevor Bauer (CIN) $10,800: Bauer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he owns a 1.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9 rate. That’s fantastic, but it’s a nightmare for an offense that ranks last in wOBA, OPS, and runs scored.
Ronald Acuna (ATL) $6,000: Acuna is always a good choice, and he’s been absolutely scorching recently. In fact, Acuna is providing a .500 OBP and 1.427 OPS over his last 19 games played.
Freddie Freeman (ATL) $5,500: These Braves have a fantastic matchup here, as they face Jorge Lopez and his 6.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. That’s really tough against a lefty like Freeman, who’s got a .514 OBP and 1.258 OPS over his last 23 games played.
Max Kepler (MIN) $4,500: Kepler just came off the IL, and it’s why his price is so low. Since the beginning of last season, Kepler has an OPS just shy of .900 against right-handers and always bats atop this scary lineup.
Corey Dickerson (MIA) $3,800: CD always kills right-handers, as he totaled a .313 BA, .587 SLG, and .942 OPS against them last season. It’s really not that far off of his career averages, and we’re certainly not worried about Velasquez and his 5.85 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

5 Notable Players to Fade

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) $10,400: Kershaw is coming off his worst start of the season and could struggle against this potent Padres lineup. What makes it even tougher is the fact that Tatis and Machado both bat from the right side.
Dylan Cease (CWS) $8,400: Cease simply isn’t good enough to be this expensive. Not only does he have a 1.30 WHIP, but he also has to face an elite Twins lineup here.
Cody Bellinger (LAD) $5,800: Bellinger is really struggling this season, and facing a breakout like Dinelson Lamet will likely make those struggles continue.
Matt Olson (OAK) $5,300: Olson is barely cracking .200 this season and plays even worse against left-handed pitchers.
Edwin Encarnacion (CWS) $4,600: Encarnacion is having his worst season in some time, and we hate that he has to face Jose Berrios from the right side.