After focusing on the running backs last week, I switch gears to the wide receiver position in this week’s installment of over/under. Some food for thought before I share which receivers that I disagree with FantasyPros on. Considering the depth at the position this year, especially in the top-24, don’t be afraid to be a bit of a contrarian and spend a second round pick on an elite tight end like Travis Kelce or George Kittle. Locking up the position that provides, far and away, the least amount of elite-level production immediately puts your roster in the best position possible, as long as you’re able to find satisfactory value later on in the drafts.
Miss out on finding that value, however, and your roster is as good as gone. I know the industry wants you to believe that waiting on tight end (and even quarterback) is the way to go. But forget that. If you feel like you’ve got a plan in place to find that value elsewhere, don’t think twice about solidifying the tight end and/or quarterback position(s) early on in your drafts.
With that in mind, let’s talk about some wide receivers that will either go over/under the preseason projections that FantasyPros compiled for them.
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Over
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 52.7 receptions, 748.5 yards, 4.5 touchdowns, 1.0 rush attempt, 6.4 rushing yards
The greatest wide receiver in Oklahoma school history couldn’t have landed in a more advantageous situation for an immediate impact during his rookie year. With CeeDee Lamb stepping into the slot-receiver role for the Dallas Cowboys, one should’ve long expected that the hype-train would be all systems go once training camp opened up, and sure enough, the buzz isn’t going away anytime soon for the former Sooners’ standout. The early reports coming out of Frisco, Texas have mentioned that second-year offensive coordinator and play-caller Kellen Moore has been dialing up Ezekiel Elliott’s, Tony Pollard’s, and Lamb’s number on a large amount of screen passes to maximize their talents in the open field.
Even though the Cowboys have two 1,000-yard-receivers returning from last season, I fully expect Lamb’s superior skillset to push him towards the front of the line in the Cowboys’ receiver room sooner rather than later.
Rob’s Projections: 98 targets, 67 receptions, 1,086 yards, 6 touchdowns
Jamison Crowder (NYJ)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 71.8 receptions, 814.4 yards, 5.5 touchdowns, 1.0 rush attempt, 6.3 rushing yards
Back in June, I wrote about how Jamison Crowder was my wide receiver outside the top-36 that had the best chance of returning WR1 value. When Crowder had Sam Darnold as his quarterback in 2019 – Darnold missed three games due to mononucleosis – he was a target monster throughout, averaging 8.3 looks per game. As long as Darnold doesn’t catch his second disease in as many years that would require him to miss NFL games (too soon?), the reliable Crowder has a realistic opportunity at anywhere from 130-150 targets this year operating as Adam Gase’s coveted slot-receiver role. Despite justifiably becoming a de facto pinata for the fantasy football industry over the past few years, Gase has always figured out a way to generate quality production for his slot receivers. Let’s not forget Jarvis Landry averaged 95 catches and over 1,000 yards per year in three seasons operating as Gase’s slot receiver.
With a cleaner bill of health out of his prized third-year quarterback, Crowder exceeds these modest projections as he turns in the best statistical season of his career.
Rob’s Projections: 137 targets, 88 receptions, 1,032 yards, 7 touchdowns
Robert Woods (LAR)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 86.7 receptions, 1,092.7 yards, 4.8 touchdowns, 14.3 rush attempts, 92.4 rushing yards
Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams experienced the all too common Super Bowl runner-up hangover and missed the playoffs in 2019. Gone were the days where Todd Gurley and Andrew Whitworth’s dominance on the ground opened up the entire offense. With a mixture of Gurley’s inability to completely overcome his nagging knee issues and the Rams’ struggles up front, the Rams have become uncharacteristically reliant upon their passing game. With general manager Les Snead cutting Gurley back in April and the Rams doing next to nothing in addressing their shortcomings on the offensive line, the Rams appear to be fully embracing this newfound air-it-out mentality.
Gone are Brandin Cooks and his 72 targets from last year, and with Robert Woods already leading the team with 139 targets, the likelihood of seeing this steep of a drop off for Woods is minimal. Over the past two years in McVay’s offense, Woods has averaged 106 touches and over 1,300 scrimmage yards per season. When you consider that the Rams will likely, once again, be among the league leaders in pass attempts and passing yards in 2020, Woods will see his touchdowns regress to the mean while continuing to lead the Rams in targets and yards.
Rob’s Projections: 145 targets, 94 receptions, 1,231 yards, 6 touchdowns, 18 rush attempts, 132 rushing yards
Under
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 95.8 receptions, 1,185.7 yards, 7.6 touchdowns, 1.3 rush attempts, 7.6 rushing yards
Earlier this month, I wrote about how DeAndre Hopkins is the ultimate wide receiver to avoid, considering his current cost. As I wrote about then, Hopkins has yet to play in an offense that warranted a sizeable amount of targets be allocated elsewhere. Instead of the oft-injured Will Fuller or Bruce Ellington, Hopkins is now sharing the targets with future-first-ballot-Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald and potential third-year-breakout Christian Kirk.
While Hopkins has been the beneficiary of having the biggest target share in football since 2017, that luxury will not be awarded to him in his first season playing in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense for the Arizona Cardinals. Hopkins will have to increase his efficiency if he wants to approach triple-digit receptions because the customary massive target share from his days in Houston will not be accompanying him in Arizona.
Rob’s Projections: 137 targets, 90 receptions, 1,094 yards, 6 touchdowns
Adam Thielen (MIN)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 77.5 receptions, 1,065.9 yards, 6.9 touchdowns, 4 rush attempts, 20.2 rushing yards
Back in June, I wrote about how Adam Thielen was an easy wide receiver to avoid this season. After limping his way through 2019, Thielen finds himself as the clear-cut alpha in the Vikings’ receiver room following Stefon Diggs’ trade to Buffalo. General Manager Rick Spielman spent yet another first-round draft pick (Cordarrelle Patterson and Laquon Treadwell) on the wide receiver position in hopes that the age-old adage “third time’s the charm” rings true for him in this case.
With the Vikings doing their absolute best to hide their recently extended quarterback – to the tune of ranking 30th in the NFL last season in pass attempts – I want absolutely nothing to do with this passing attack. Mixed in with Thielen’s abysmal showing throughout 10 games last season, I’ll let someone else spend the investment on this early-round dice roll.
Rob’s Projections: 89 targets, 57 receptions, 791 yards, 5 touchdowns
Marquise Brown (BAL)
FantasyPros’ Projections: 62.4 receptions, 822.2 yards, 6.4 touchdowns, 6.3 rush attempts, 60 rushing yards
Similar to my feelings towards the Minnesota Vikings and our philosophical differences as it pertains to throwing the football, until further notice, miss me with any and all wide receivers for the Baltimore Ravens, including Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. While Greg Roman’s promotion to offensive coordinator played a pivotal role in Lamar Jackson capturing the 2019 NFL MVP award, with that came Roman’s reluctance to have his quarterback’s put the ball in the air.
For the sixth time out of his seven years as an NFL offensive coordinator, Roman’s offense in 2019 ranked 31st or worse in pass attempts throughout the entire league. With that in mind, I’m having a really difficult time coming to grips with FantasyPros’ projections that will likely require 100 or so targets going to Brown. Being that the Ravens’ leading receiver last year, Mark Andrews, couldn’t even reach triple-digit targets, why should anyone realistically expect Brown to in 2020? This offense will never include two separate players that receive over 100 targets each.
The splashy “Hollywood” Brown is best served for Best Ball formats where his frugal workload won’t penalize you.
Rob’s Projections: 81 targets, 53 receptions, 789 yards, 5 touchdowns
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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.
