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Top-10 Deep Sleepers (2020 Fantasy Football)

Top-10 Deep Sleepers (2020 Fantasy Football)

What if you had Lamar Jackson, DeVante Parker, A.J. Brown, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin, Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews on your fantasy team last year? You probably would’ve won a championship, right? What do all those guys have in common? They were either undrafted in fantasy leagues, or they went in one of the final rounds.

We all know the term sleepers, and while the term means something different to everyone, we’re going to extremes in this article today. Deep sleepers consist of players who are going outside the top-150 in ADP right now. That’s about as deep as you can get, as most of them are undrafted.

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It’s important to remember that these players are going outside the top 150 for a reason, and the chance of them hitting every-week starting material is small, but these are the players who I think have a better shot at getting there than the general consensus.

Parris Campbell (WR – IND) Overall ADP: 211
He’s one of my favorite late-round picks. When the Colts drafted him towards the top of the second round last year, we looked at his measurables and realized he was bigger, stronger, and faster than T.Y. Hilton. We also knew Hilton’s contract was expiring after the 2020 season. Now with a new quarterback and a year of experience in the offense, Campbell is set to enter the starting lineup. With Chester Rogers gone, Campbell is supposed to take over the slot-heavy role in the offense, a role that Keenan Allen put up 77/783/4 in 2014, and then 67/725/4 in 2015 (in just eight games). Knowing Hilton has been dealing with a hamstring injury to start camp, Campbell has been getting valuable reps with Philip Rivers.

Allen Lazard (WR – GB) Overall ADP: 204
We now know for certain that Lazard will be the No. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams, so why is his ADP so low? Not only will he be in the starting lineup, but he has earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers, something that’s boded well in the past. Remember when Adams struggled over the first few seasons and Rodgers went to bat for him, saying he’d be special. He’s been saying a lot of great things about Lazard, too. There have been 10 different seasons where Rodgers has supported multiple top-32 options in fantasy.

Blake Jarwin (TE – DAL) Overall ADP: 190
What you need to look for with a sleeper tight end is volume, plain and simple. The Cowboys tight end duo of Jarwin and Jason Witten combined for 124 targets last year. Crazy, right? Well, Witten is gone, and though CeeDee Lamb will walk into the starting lineup to replace Randall Cobb, we can’t pretend he’ll see a whole lot more than the 83 targets Cobb did. Over the last two years, Jarwin has turned 77 targets into 672 yards and six touchdowns. There’s a clear path to him finishing as a top-12 tight end in 2020.

Zack Moss (RB – BUF) Overall ADP: 152
There are a lot of people automatically assuming that Devin Singletary will get the majority of touches in this offense. I don’t think it should be a foregone conclusion. Did you know the Bills used a third-round pick to select Moss, the same as they did Singletary? Last year, Frank Gore totaled exactly one fewer touch than Singletary did. Yes, Singletary missed four games, but the gap should’ve been bigger. The Bills GM has already stated Moss will overtake the Gore role, which netted 10-plus carries per game with goal-line duties.

Anthony Miller (WR – CHI) Overall ADP: 156
We saw flashes of a breakout last year when Miller posted 52-plus yards in 6-of-10 games from Week 5 through Week 15, yet no one wants to buy him because he’s attached to the Bears offense. The fact that Mitch Trubisky was as bad as he was last year is actually something that’s a positive for Miller and Allen Robinson. Despite that play, they were able to give usable fantasy performances. With Nick Foles in town, they have twice the odds of having competent quarterback play. With Taylor Gabriel out of the lineup, Miller was a borderline WR3, even if there were some ups and downs.

John Ross (WR – CIN) Overall ADP: 203
Remember the start of last season when Ross was the hottest waiver wire pickup? He caught 11 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns over the first two weeks in Zac Taylor’s offense. Now you take away Andy Dalton and replace him with one of the most accurate deep-ball passers in Joe Burrow? Ross had to leave the team at the start of camp due to his newborn son contracting COVID, which does add some uncertainty, but stashing him with one of your final picks makes sense.

Gardner Minshew (QB – JAX) Overall ADP: 174
It was quite miraculous what Minshew accomplished in 2020, especially when you factor in the lack of draft capital (sixth-round pick) they used to acquire him. Don’t understand just how good he was?

Player Yds/Gm TDs/gm INTs/gm RushYds/gm FPts/gm
Gardner Minshew 233.6 1.50 0.43 24.6 16.4
Kyler Murray 232.6 1.25 0.75 36.3 17.8

 

And keep in mind that Minshew didn’t even start two of the games included in that sample. Am I going to say that he should be drafted like Murray? No. However, he is being undervalued by those in 2QB leagues. The average quarterback rushes for a touchdown every 96.2 yards rushing. Had Minshew scored three rushing touchdowns (instead of the zero that he did) on 344 rushing yards, he would’ve finished as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback… in his rookie season… as a sixth-round pick. The Jaguars defense is as bad as ever, so we’ll see plenty of pass attempts out of him. It should also be noted that Jay Gruden (his new coordinator) has produced top-14 quarterbacks in 6-of-9 years, and the years he didn’t, there were injuries and/or multiple quarterbacks playing. Minshew has zero competition and can potentially be a Jameis Winston-lite in 2020.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) Overall ADP: 207
Some of you may not have heard the name Jalen Hurd before, but now that he’s injured, it makes more room for Aiyuk to make an immediate impact. It was supposed to be tough for rookies to make an immediate impact with the lack of offseason, but the 49ers will need him to step into a big role as the only receiver who’s locked into the starting lineup. You can’t overlook the fact that the 49ers traded up to draft him in the first round.

Dede Westbrook (WR – JAX) Overall ADP: 196
When I tell people that Westbrook was one of 30 wide receivers with 100-plus targets last year, they’re shocked. Even when they do hear that, they say “where’s the upside?” If we were replaying 2019, I’d have the same concern, but it’s not 2019, and Westbrook has a different coordinator. Jay Gruden has been notorious for spreading the ball around the offense, and he’s said they’re going to move players around the formation. This is great for Westbrook, who’s been pigeonholed into the slot role for no good reason. Did you know he has 4.34 speed? There’s more upside if Gruden stays true to his word.

Preston Williams (WR – MIA) Overall ADP: 164
Did you know that Williams was the No. 39 wide receiver through nine weeks last year? That was despite them having their bye in Week 5, as well as him not being a true starter until Week 3. He was extremely good his rookie year. He’s coming off a torn ACL, which isn’t an injury that’s as detrimental as it used to be, but it may be tough for him to return as the same player in a brand-new offense. The Dolphins defense improved greatly, their run game should be much better, and they’ll eventually transition to a rookie quarterback. These are all question marks, but fortunately, Williams is being drafted outside the top 60 wide receivers, similar to the way DeVante Parker was last year. Given their current prices (Williams WR61, Parker WR22), Williams seems like a much better value than Parker this year. Knowing that Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out, there are plenty of targets up for grabs, making Williams a solid WR4/5 on fantasy teams that you can spot-start depending on matchups.

Honorable Mentions: Antonio Gibson (RB/WR – WAS) Overall ADP: 191, Damien Harris (RB – NE) Overall ADP: 214, Anthony McFarland (RB – PIT) Overall ADP: 236, Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC) Overall ADP: 247


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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