New York Jets

QB
Sam Darnold: It hasn’t been the start to his career that he’d hoped for, as Darnold has finished as a QB1-type performer in just 6-of-26 games (23.1 percent). Even lowering the bar to a top-18-type performance, he’s hit those marks in just 10-of-26 games, and that’s why it’s tough to rely on him as your QB2 in Superflex/2QB leagues. On top of those struggles, he’s now dealing with two brand-new receivers on the perimeter with practically no offseason while playing for Adam Gase. That’s like the trifecta of bad. Part of the issue has been the offensive line, though the Jets have tried to address that this offseason, snagging three players in free agency, and then another two in the first four rounds of the draft, including the mammoth of a man, Mekhi Becton, in the first round. That’s an issue in itself, as offensive lines take time to develop continuity/consistency, so expecting that to happen with four or five new starters is going to be an issue. Darnold is just not in a position to succeed right now.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell, Frank Gore, and Lamical Perine: Prior to breaking down these running backs, I just want to share Adam Gase’s last three years of coaching when it comes to running backs:

This makes me angry just looking at it. Le’Veon Bell was legit one of the best running backs in football before Gase. Kenyan Drake went on to be the No. 4 running back in fantasy football without Gase. We can do this all day, but clearly Gase is a real problem. With that being said, Bell can be a value in fantasy drafts this year. Despite the offense crawling at a snail’s pace and Bell scoring just four times all year, he finished as an RB2 or better in 66.7 percent of his games, which ranked 12th among running backs. He’s currently being drafted as the RB21 in the 4th/5th round. Look, he’s not sexy and you’re going to have to surround him with a few upside players in your starting lineup, but he’s stable. Believe me, I didn’t want any part of him last year as a first-round pick and said that you could get similar results by drafting Leonard Fournette in the third round. This year, however, he’s not even close to the same price. The offensive line should be improved, though it may take time, and Gase “reportedly” wants to move at a faster pace (we’ll see). Even if Gore comes in and takes 4-6 touches per game, Bell’s due for some touchdown regression to the mean. If you snag him in the 5th round, I’m more than okay with that. Don’t touch Gore or Perine. They’re subpar talents (at this stage in their career) in a bad offense that even Bell struggled in.

WRs
Jamison Crowder: There were just 24 wide receivers who finished with 110-plus targets last year. Crowder was one of them. He was No. 16, actually. Did you know he’s the only one who didn’t finish as a top-26 wide receiver? His No. 31 finish was better than most would anticipate, though it was uglier than you’d like it to be. In fact, he produced WR3 or better numbers just 43.8 percent of the time, which ranked 42nd among wide receivers. He also scored fewer than 8.0 PPR points in 43.8 percent of his games. With that being said, he’s the only receiver returning to the starting lineup for Sam Darnold. Both Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are new faces who are going to require time to learn the new offense and develop chemistry with Darnold. Crowder’s targets aren’t likely to go anywhere. In fact, they might actually go up, which is kind of crazy. Crowder doesn’t offer top-15 wide receiver upside, but he does present some stability as a mix-and-match WR3/4 type who presents a solid floor in a pinch. His current ADP of WR49 allows you to get him as your WR5 in some situations, which is fine if you need to add some balance to your high-upside team.

Breshad Perriman: Perriman is now on his fourth team in as many years. It’s tough to be a reliable fantasy option when that’s the case. Not only that, but the Jets are still under Adam Gase, which means there won’t be many plays per game (he’s been under 59 plays per game in each of the last two seasons). The Jets have what I deemed the toughest schedule in the league for perimeter wide receivers (read the NEW strength of schedule for wide receivers here), so even if we see Perriman get the targets, he’s unlikely to be efficient with them. He closed the 2019 season with 25 receptions for 506 yards and five touchdowns over his last five games, which will have some intrigued, but my guess is that you’ll drop Perriman for a hot waiver wire pickup, as Gase’s offense isn’t Bruce Arians’ and Sam Darnold isn’t Jameis Winston. There will be weeks where Perriman snags a deep ball and pays off, but those are the types of players you can find on the waiver wire all the time. I just don’t see him getting more than 5-6 targets per game.

Denzel Mims: I like Mims, similar to the way I liked Michael Gallup coming into the league. Not that they’re the same player, but rather people didn’t know how good they were until they looked past the school they played for. Mims is a possession-style receiver who can stretch the field, as evidenced by his 4.38-second 40-yard dash he ran at the Combine. He should become a favorite of Sam Darnold in the red zone, as he plucks the ball out of the air with his strong mitts. He’ll be battling with Breshad Perriman for targets on the perimeter, while Jamison Crowder remains the safety valve in the slot. Robby Anderson did see 96 targets last year while Demaryius Thomas saw 58 of them (in 11 games), so there’s room for a fantasy producer. The issue is that Mims is a rookie who hasn’t seen any preseason action and hasn’t had much time to be around the team. The same can be said for Perriman, so there’s a route to immediate production with Mims, though Adam Gase has not been friendly to perimeter wide receivers. Over the last four years, his top receivers were Jarvis Landry (twice), Danny Amendola, and Jamison Crowder… all slot receivers. It’s best to be cautious with rookie wide receivers, especially this year, even if I like who Mims is as a player. Selecting him in one of the final rounds makes sense, as you’ll find out what you have over the first two weeks and decide whether you want to cut bait or stick with him.

TEs
Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin: We’ve seen players get on Adam Gase’s bad side before (see: DeVante Parker). It seems like Herndon might be flirting with that territory after an injury-plagued 2019 season. Meanwhile, Griffin stepped in and played extremely well on limited targets. He racked up 320 yards and five touchdowns over 13 games, even though he wasn’t the starter to begin the year. Many expect Herndon to come back into the lineup and be the player he was back in 2018, but that’s tough to expect because Gase wasn’t his coach. In fact, Gase hasn’t had a tight end finish inside the top-20 at the position since back in 2014 when he still had Peyton Manning, the guy who got him a coaching job in the first place. The only hope for Herndon is that his chemistry from working with Darnold in the past shines through, as there are many new faces at receiver. Even then, this offense is only going to score so many points, giving you a lower ceiling in the touchdown department. Herndon might be fine in 2TE leagues, but he’s just a streamer in standard formats. We’ve already seen Griffin without Herndon, where he averaged just 3.2 targets per game. *Update* With all the injuries the Jets are dealing with at receiver, Herndon continues to move up my board. He’s worth a dart throw in the later rounds.

Philadelphia Eagles

QBs
Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts: The Eagles selecting Hurts in the second round likely put a pit into Wentz’s stomach, as there were plenty other needs to address on a team that won a Super Bowl just a few years ago. Not many realize just how Wentz has good for fantasy over the last three years. Here’s a glimpse at his “Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between” numbers.

Sure, he hasn’t had the ceiling you’d like, producing no games over 25.0 fantasy points over the last two years, but that’s what happens when your receivers can’t stay on the field. To produce top-12 type numbers 50-plus percent of the time while dealing with those injuries says a lot about his floor, and we’ve seen his ceiling in 2017. The only other quarterback who’s hit the 50 percent mark in three straight years is Deshaun Watson. The Eagles have added Jalen Reagor to the offense, a receiver who can play all over the field, and stretch a defense. DeSean Jackson is healthy coming into the year, and we saw Wentz’s biggest game of the year with him on the field in 2019. The concern is that Hurts is involved similarly to someone like Taysom Hill in New Orleans which could cost Wentz a few touchdowns here and there. Still, if you’re taking the “wait on quarterback” approach, Wentz is an ideal quarterback to have where you can just set-it-and-forget-it most of the time. He has top-five upside if his pass catchers can stay healthy.

RBs
Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Wendell Smallwood: I’ll be honest… I was waiting for the Eagles to sign a running back all offseason. It never happened. Is it possible that Sanders is actually going to get the workhorse role in Doug Pederson’s offense? Many will point to the increased workload down the stretch, though that was by necessity, as Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery were all hurt. So, when you see his increased snaps, you understand where they came from. They needed bodies on the field. Sanders played 39.1 snaps per game in 2019. The previous high was Sproles back in 2016 when he played 34.1 snaps per game. Now go ahead and ask what the best running backs play… Christian McCaffrey 66.0, Ezekiel Elliott 58.9, Saquon Barkley 56.7, etc. You get the picture? But here’s your silver lining: From their bye week forward last year, Sanders played 53.9 snaps per game. They didn’t add anyone, meaning he should retain that role, though he may not be asked to do as much in the passing game with Jalen Reagor and DeSean Jackson healthy. But in Doug Pederson’s four years as the head coach, they’ve ranked top-10 in rushing attempts in three of them. If they don’t sign another running back, Sanders is likely to enter the RB1 conversation behind one of the best offensive lines in football. *Update* Sanders suffered a lower body injury on 8/19 and is said to be week-to-week. Stay tuned for updates on his status and if they sign another running back (I’ll post here). Scott is still likely to have a role in the offense, though, especially after he played so well down the stretch. He himself averaged 37.3 snaps per game over the last month, though as I mentioned before, it was large in part to do with the lack of pass catchers healthy. He did score five touchdowns on just 61 carries and caught 24-of-26 passes for 204 yards, so you can say he earned a role in the offense. Think of Scott as a Chris Thompson-type who could walk into a bigger role than most think.

WRs
DeSean Jackson: We saw exactly one game with Jackson healthy in the Doug Pederson offense. It led to nine targets, eight receptions, 154 yards, and two touchdowns. To be fair, it was against Washington, but still impressive. It’s tough to take too much away from just one game, though. He is now 34 years old, so it’s only a matter of time before his game declines, though we haven’t seen it yet. He’s averaged at least 10.0 yards per target in six of his last seven seasons. With Marquise Goodwin opting out for the season, they’ll need Jackson in the field-stretching role. He’s a poor man’s version of Will Fuller at this stage of his career but can still fit in your lineup from time to time. At his current WR58 draft position, he’s a steal.

Jalen Reagor: It was a shock to see the Eagles pass on Justin Jefferson to select Reagor because Jefferson seemed tailormade for their offense, but that doesn’t make Reagor a bad choice. In fact, he was my No. 3 receiver in this draft class behind only Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. He’s a very explosive player who can play all over the field and create yards after the catch. Knowing that Marquise Goodwin opted out, Alshon Jeffery looks likely to start on the PUP list, and DeSean Jackson turning 34 years old, Reagor might lead this team’s wide receivers in targets. All we’ve heard this offseason is that Reagor is “everything the Eagles thought he’d be and more.” You can read my scouting report on him here. If Jeffery does, in fact, start out the season on the PUP list, Reagor is someone I’m willing to draft with one of my first bench spots, as he has 100-target potential. I can make the case for him to be a WR3 in fantasy, but you don’t want to erase all equity. *Update* Reagor hurt his shoulder during a practice at the end of August and now appears likely to miss the first few games of the season. He moves down draft boards because of this, and while I’d like to hold onto him in leagues with deeper benches, he’s tough to wait on in leagues with just five bench spots. 

Alshon Jeffery: What can we say at this point? It’s more of a surprise to see him on the field than off the field. He’s now missed 20 games over the last five seasons and appears set to start the year on the PUP list after undergoing Lisfranc surgery in mid-December. You’d think he’d be good to go by now, but with Jeffery, nothing is a given. You can’t stash a player on your bench for six weeks in a year like this, though Jeffery does have appeal in best ball and leagues that’ll allow you to place him on an IR slot. In his three years with the Eagles, Jeffery has managed to rack up 285 targets over 38 games, which amounts to 7.5 targets per game. That’s led to WR2 or better numbers in 42.1 percent of games, which would’ve ranked as the No. 24 wide receiver in 2019. The Eagles don’t have much wide receiver depth/talent, so once he comes back, he should walk back in to at least six targets per game and offer WR3 startability most weeks.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward: It’s clear that Arcega-Whiteside wasn’t good last year. The Eagles drafted him over D.K. Metcalf, which seemed bad at the time, and it only looks worse now. He caught just 10-of-22 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown in a season where the team was in desperate need of wide receiver help. They not only lost their top two options in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery, but they also had Nelson Agholor struggling to do much of anything. Instead of relying on him, they went to Ward, who essentially came off the street and posted 28 receptions for 254 yards and a touchdown over six games. Arcega-Whiteside might be starting in 2020 with Jeffery likely on the PUP list, as Jackson, Jalen Reagor, and Ward just wouldn’t present enough size in a starting trio. Based on what we saw last year, his snaps didn’t amount to much, because there were six games he played at least 45 snaps. Based on what we saw out of him back in college, he should present touchdown upside, though, and that’s an area the Eagles could use help. Is it possible he grew as a player? Sure, though the lack of offseason can’t help. Don’t spend a pick on either of them, just take the wait-and-see approach.

TEs
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: We’ve now seen the Eagles tight ends rack up a combined 155 receptions in each of the last two years. By comparison, there were just three other teams with more than 141 targets to their tight ends. The duo of Ertz and Goedert combined for a ridiculous 222 targets, which is amazing considering I went back to 2013 and there wasn’t another team who had more than 201 in one season. Now, to be fair, the 2019 season was probably an outlier considering all the injuries they had on the roster. Still, that number was at 198 targets between the two in 2018, and Goedert continues to grow into a bigger role. There are a lot of fantasy players moving Ertz down their boards, but it’s tough to say that’s right considering he had just one game with fewer than six targets in 2019. He totaled at least 54 yards in 12-of-16 games. I don’t think Ertz’s role in the offense changes with everyone healthy. I believe it impacts Goedert more, as you can clearly see his snaps rise as the injuries piled up. When you find a tight end who’s essentially locked into 130 targets if healthy, like Ertz is, you’re getting a top-five tight end, zero questions asked. Efficiency doesn’t even matter. Over the last 10 years, there have been 18 tight ends who’ve seen 128-plus targets, and they all finished top-five at year’s end. Ertz should be the third or fourth tight end off the board, depending on what you want (Andrews may offer more touchdown upside, but less safety). Goedert is more of a streamer than the low-end TE1 he was over the second half of last season. He shouldn’t come off the board before other tight ends who are locked into 80-plus targets. I will say, however, that if Ertz were to miss time, Goedert would immediately be a top-three tight end who must be started. He’s a rare tight end handcuff with some standalone value.

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB
Ben Roethlisberger: This is one of the weirdest offseasons in NFL history. It’s uncharted territory with so many question marks. Then you add in Roethlisberger, who’s been rehabbing from an elbow injury that had him tear three tendons in his throwing arm. Yikes. His teammates have said he looks good while throwing the ball around, and have also said he’s lost weight, and looks lighter on his feet. Many are undervaluing the Steelers this year due to what happened last year, but don’t forget they averaged 66.4 and 66.1 plays per game in 2017 and 2018, while averaging just 58.6 plays per game in 2019. That amounts to an extra 120-plus plays for this offense with Roethlisberger back. The pass attempts dropped from 687 to 510. While that 687 number from 2018 was sky-high, the Steelers continually have averaged 585-610 pass attempts. We can talk about Roethlisberger throwing at least 26 touchdowns in six of his last eight seasons and that he’s averaged at least 7.5 yards per attempt each year from 2014-2018, but none of that matters if his elbow isn’t right. It adds a level of risk to the entire roster, though he was apparently playing through some elbow pain for quite some time, and it makes sense considering how three tendons finally snapped. We’ll talk about it throughout the season in The Primer, but you should also know that Roethlisberger has been horrendous on the road over the last six years, averaging just 15.22 fantasy points per game compared to the 22.19 fantasy points per game at home. He opens the season on the road against the Giants, which is a juicy matchup, but should you trust him coming off the arm injury? I’d probably play it safe and stream him throughout the year once we know he’s healthy.

RBs
James Conner, Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As mentioned in the Roethlisberger notes, the Steelers are likely to run 120-plus more plays than they did last year with him under center. This is great for all parties involved, even the running backs. The team went from a 67.2 percent pass-rate to just 57.8 last year, which did allow the running backs to get more opportunities in general, but they weren’t as important because they were predictable. Despite totaling 44 more carries than they did in 2018, the running backs totaled 27 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns. Mike Tomlin has already come out and said that Conner will be the workhorse of the team, and while on the field, he’s been an RB1. Here are his Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between over the last two seasons as the starter:

If you were to compare those numbers to someone like Nick Chubb, they’re better across the board. I’m not saying you draft him ahead of Chubb, but knowing Chubb is a borderline first rounder, while Conner is a late fourth-round pick, it doesn’t make too much sense. Keep in mind there are multiple games where Conner left early in that sample size. If he’s on the field, he’s in your lineup no matter what. I’m good taking him at the end of the third if you want him. We know the risk, but the reward is worth it. Snell is apparently the backup, as Tomlin’s comments from May suggest. “Benny Snell is a guy that is capable of being a featured runner who plays with a physical style in a similar manner to James. He’s capable of being a James -type of guy if James is unavailable.” That also tells me that McFarland is going to have his own standalone role in the offense, which makes sense considering I had him pegged as a Chris Thompson-type running back with more tackle-breaking ability. It’s possible they give the fourth-round rookie 5-8 touches per game. It’s also possible he surpasses Snell as the backup, though that may take time. Still, I’d rather own McFarland at the end of my roster than Snell. Samuels might be a cut candidate.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Did everyone forget just how talented Smith-Schuster is because he had a down year in 2019? He played through multiple injuries and dealt with what was probably the worst quarterback situation in the league. In Week 1 and Week 2, when Ben Roethlisberger was on the field, Smith-Schuster saw 16 targets, catching 11 of them for 162 yards. Not too shabby. Insert bad quarterbacks, paired with Smith-Schuster trying to run routes from the perimeter, and it was a recipe for disaster. The Steelers have vowed to put him back in the slot where he belongs, and he’s getting back Roethlisberger, who’s continually supported fantasy receivers throughout his long career. Going all the way back to 2008, Ben Roethlisberger‘s No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers combined for at least 225 targets on eight different occasions, including 334 times when he had Antonio Brown and Smith-Schuster in 2018. With Roethlisberger on the field, the Steelers haven’t thrown the ball less than 584 times since way back in 2012. It’s hard to see a scenario where Smith-Schuster doesn’t see at least 130 targets if he’s healthy (that would be just a 22.2 percent target share), which is elite volume, so even if he’s average, he’d be a high-end WR2. I’ll leave you with this… Smith-Schuster posted 1,426 yards in his second NFL season at the age of 22. There are just six players who posted more yardage in one of their first two seasons. The list includes Isaac Bruce, Josh Gordon, Torry Holt, Jerry Rice, Victor Cruz, and Odell Beckham Jr. We can’t pretend Smith-Schuster is anywhere close to average. He’s worth a third-round pick in drafts, even though many are getting him in the fourth.

Diontae Johnson: When the Steelers drafted Johnson in the third round in 2019, many did a double take, but once he got on the field, he proved worthy. The Steelers liked him so much, he saw a very-high 18.0 percent target share in his rookie season. It didn’t hurt that JuJu Smith-Schuster was hurt and missing some time, but it highlights how much they believe in him. He’ll play the “Antonio Brown role” in the offense moving forward while Smith-Schuster goes back to the slot. The downside is that Johnson will then see the opposing No. 1 cornerback, as they don’t go into the slot very often. Still, throughout Ben Roethlisberger‘s long 15-year career (excluding 2019), he’s supported two top-40 wide receivers in 12 of them, with 11 of them supporting two top-32 receivers. There is certainly risk with Roethlisberger’s elbow, but at WR43 (his current ADP), you’re getting a slight discount. I mean, even with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center, he finished as the WR43 his rookie season. Snagging him as your WR4 would be a good idea, as I believe he’ll be a WR3 more often than not.

James Washington and Chase Claypool: We have the battle of second-round receivers here, as Washington is coming off his most productive season in 2019, though it’s important to note that he and Mason Rudolph played in college together, so there was chemistry there. Still, it was impressive for him to post 735 yards and three touchdowns on just 80 targets considering who was throwing to him. If the Steelers hadn’t drafted Claypool, Washington would have sleeper appeal. Heck, he still does, but Claypool clouds his path. It does help that rookie minicamps were canceled and that there is no preseason action, so it’s likely we see Washington get the reps out of the gate, and Roethlisberger has always talked good about him. Snagging Washington with a late-round pick might make sense, as you’ll find out your answer in Week 1 against the Giants. If he plays the starter role and has a few big plays, you’ll see many run to snag him off the waiver wire. On top of that, if Smith-Schuster or Johnson were to miss any time, Washington would likely be staring at six-plus targets per game.

TEs
Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald: It’s going to be interesting to see how this tight end group works out. The Steelers run a ton of three-wide receiver sets (70 percent), which allows for one running back and one tight end on the field with them. That’s an issue for Ebron because he makes the offense predictable, as he doesn’t block. The Colts used him to run block just 92 snaps last year, which ranked 81st among tight ends. Sure, he missed games, but even going back to 2018 where he played all 16 games, he ranked 61st. The Steelers had two tight ends on the field just 20 percent of the time last year, which doesn’t bode well for Ebron. If you go back to 2018 (with Roethlisberger), they had two tight ends on the field just nine percent of the time, which was the third-lowest mark in the league. Before you quickly dismiss McDonald, the Steelers picked up his option for the 2020 season for $5.5 million, which is not a small number for a team against the cap. By comparison, Ebron is making $3.5 million this year. Going back through the Steelers history with Roethlisberger/Tomlin, this team has never targeted tight ends more than 126 times and have been below 100 targets in all but four seasons. With all the receivers they have, it’s tough to see them top those numbers. Ebron is surely the preferred fantasy option, but he’s going to be ultra-touchdown dependent, and knowing he may not play 50 percent of the snaps, that’s an issue. Ebron is fine in 2TE leagues, but he’s only a streamer in standard leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

QB
Jimmy Garoppolo: There are a lot of people (myself included) who don’t realize just how impressive Garoppolo’s numbers have been to this point in his career. He’s averaged at least 8.0 yards per attempt in every year he’s started a game, including 8.4 yards per attempt in 2019. He’s completed 67.5 percent of his passes, and he has a 2.10:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Despite all that, he’s been a top-12 type quarterback in fantasy just 28.0 percent of the time since joining the 49ers. How is that? He plays for Kyle Shanahan and has averaged just 29.7 pass attempts per game. When you do that to a strictly pocket passer, it crushes his fantasy upside. It’s unlikely that changes in 2020, especially when you consider he’ll be without his No. 1 receiver for a while, as Deebo Samuel recovers from broken foot surgery. It’s worth noting that two of his four QB1 performances in 2019 were against the Cardinals, the team he’ll play in Week 1. Again, he’ll be without Samuel, but George Kittle might go nuclear. Garoppolo is a solid quarterback in 2QB formats, even if he doesn’t come with a top-12 type ceiling.

RBs
Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson: I’m fairly certain that predicting Kyle Shanahan’s running back timeshare is more difficult than predicting the stock market. It stinks because it’s a very efficient system, and one that racked up a league-high 424 carries for the running backs. They were the only team in the league whose running backs rushed for over 2,000 yards. They also led the league with 19 rushing touchdowns. So, why is it that no running back on this team is being drafted as a top-24 option? There were just four instances a running back totaled more than 15 carries last year. There were just six instances in 2018. Of those 10 instances over the last two years, there were five different running backs who hit that mark. Crazy, right? But is there something to Mostert? During the playoff run he totaled 53 carries, 336 yards, and five touchdowns in three games. He saw just three targets in those games, which is brutal for his floor, but we’re now sitting at eight straight games where Mostert has totaled at least 10 carries and 53 rushing yards. That may not seem like much, but it’s a step in the right direction, as is the fact that the 49ers gave in to his demands. He requested a trade if they didn’t re-work his contract, so they added an additional $1.9 million to his salary this year. He’s clearly a big part of their run game moving forward. His current ADP of RB25 is fair. There’s some risk, sure, but you must factor in the potential that he carries the ball 15 times per game and is the primary goal-line back. He has RB1 upside if Shanahan adjusts his ways. There have been whispers about Coleman getting the bigger role, but I can’t believe them. He had the bigger role early in the season but wasn’t particularly efficient. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry or less in 9-of-14 games. He topped 45 rushing yards three times all season. In the games he totaled at least 12 carries, he failed to top 3.1 yards per carry in 4-of-5 games. Coleman is a timeshare back, that’s what he is. He’s not someone you should draft as anything more than a mediocre RB4 who would have spot-start ability if Mostert missed time. The last time McKinnon touched the football in a regular season game, Post Malone’s song “Rockstar” was released. Over the last two seasons he’s played, he’s averaged a combined 3.6 yards per carry. He’ll be used in the passing game, sure, but knowing he’s third in line for snaps among the running backs, he likely won’t see enough to be reliable. I’m good letting someone else take that risk.

WRs
Deebo Samuel: In case you missed it, Samuel broke his foot in June and needed to have surgery immediately. Any time a pass catcher has surgery on a foot or ankle in the same calendar year, you have to be concerned, as we’ve seen players continually struggle to produce. Kyle Shanahan has already come forward saying that Samuel will miss games, and that the only question is how many. This is a bit reminiscent of A.J. Green last year, where I kept telling people to take the discount as your WR3. Oddly enough, Samuel is being drafted in WR3 territory as the WR30 right now. There’s no way I’ll advise to make that mistake again, especially with a player who has such a limited sample size. He saw 81 targets last year. That’s hardly “can’t miss” material, anyway. If he falls into the double-digit rounds, he’s not a bad gamble, but I wouldn’t take him prior to then.

Brandon Aiyuk: When you’re a first-round pick, you’re going to get some opportunities, and even more so when the team’s No. 1 receiver is out. With Deebo Samuel slated to miss time, Aiyuk is likely to lead the 49ers receivers in targets over the first few weeks. Knowing the schedule starts with the Cardinals, Jets, and Giants, he might get off to a hot start. While watching college film on Aiyuk, he’s someone who popped at times, but would then disappear during others. I classified him as more fast than quick, as he is shifty in routes, but lacks elite short-area burst. I thought he’d be a field stretcher who could eventually turn into a complete receiver with some refinement in his intermediate routes. Knowing Garoppolo was arguably the best deep-ball passer in the league last year, that seems like a match. The issue is that the 49ers had him throw deep just 6.5 percent of the time, which was the lowest in the league. We need those numbers to go up for Aiyuk to truly explode. Knowing his early season schedule, it’s not a bad idea to snag him as a WR5 and see what happens. *Update* Jalen Hurd was just announced likely out for the season, which means Aiyuk should have a massive role out of the gate. Another update: Aiyuk hurt his hamstring and has been sidelined himself. 

Jalen Hurd: *Update* Hurd suffered a season-ending injury during training camp, removing him from draft consideration. If you were to ask which player could mimic a lot of the things Deebo Samuel did for this offense, Hurd is the one. He played running back throughout college, then switched to wide receiver his final year, then proceeded to post nearly 1,000 yards. Knowing Samuel racked up 14 carries last year, we could see Hurd used in that role. I was extremely high on him as an athlete coming into the draft, and though he wasn’t expected to go until Day 3 of the draft, the 49ers snagged him at the top of the third round, so they were high on him. Hurd was shut down during his rookie season with a back injury, so he didn’t play in the regular season, but he did flash during the preseason, catching two touchdowns. He’s a specimen (6-foot-4, 227 pounds) that has a massive ceiling if used correctly, and Shanahan might be the perfect guy to do that. Take him with one of your final picks and see what happens.

Dante Pettis and Kendrick Bourne: These two will battle for the same job it seems. Pettis was someone who apparently got on Shanahan’s bad side and wound up in the doghouse. The 49ers shifted from Pettis to Bourne right around Week 10, though we have no clue on whether that will stick, especially given no preseason action. It’s clear the 49ers have a lot of open snaps with Emmanuel Sanders gone and Deebo Samuel likely to miss multiple games, and now Jalen Hurd out for the season, so these two may have streamability at some point, but it’s still a team that averaged just 29.9 pass attempts last year. You don’t need to draft either of them expecting a breakout, but if you’re in a deeper league, Pettis would be my choice.

TE
George Kittle: He finally got paid! It was only a matter of time. Knowing Kittle has produced literally record-breaking numbers on a team that’s thrown the ball just 31.6 times per game over the last two years, you should understand how good he is. He totaled at least 54 yards in 12-of-14 games despite playing through a torn labrum last year. He’s moving into the prime of his career, while Travis Kelce is hitting an age where we start to see tight ends lose elite upside (here’s the article highlighting at what age tight ends decline). Knowing that Deebo Samuel is likely going to miss a handful of games, we could see higher target totals than normal in 2020. It’s difficult for some to justify spending a second-round pick on a tight end, but when you look at my 2020 projections and see that Kittle would rank as the No. 7 wide receiver, it should help you understand why he’s a great pick at the end of the second round. Not only is that around where the No. 7 wide receiver is coming off the board, but it’s at a position where there are just a couple difference makers. He’s one of them. In fact, it’d be wise to expect him to be the best tight end in 2020.

Seattle Seahawks

QB
Russell Wilson: The knock on Wilson has forever been “he doesn’t throw the ball enough!” That argument only holds so much water, as Wilson has now finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in four of the last six seasons. Let me tell you… if Wilson attempted 600 pass attempts, he’d under consideration as the first quarterback off the board. Despite topping out at 553 attempts, Wilson has thrown at least 31 touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. There’s been just one season he’s averaged less than 7.7 yards per attempt. He’s hit a 6.0 percent touchdown percentage in 6-of-8 career seasons. He’s the good stuff. Can we anticipate more pass attempts? Sure we can. The first year under Brian Schottenheimer they threw the ball just 427 times. The second year (2019), that number went up to 516 attempts. Why did that happen? Not because the run game wasn’t effective. It certainly was. It’s because the Seahawks defense has trended in the wrong direction, which bodes well for Wilson’s pass attempts. They did just trade for Jamal Adams, which will certainly help matters, but their front seven doesn’t generate a whole lot of pressure. If they lose Jadeveon Clowney, it only gets worse, but I’d consider 516 attempts the floor for Wilson in 2020. When you add in the growth/chemistry between Wilson and D.K. Metcalf, the ceiling continues to grow. Don’t forget that Metcalf was a rookie last year, while Tyler Lockett dealt with injuries over the second half of the season. I can’t say Wilson gets to 600 pass attempts, but we don’t need him to in order to produce elite numbers, as we’ve seen. Provided he’s healthy, his floor is likely a top-six quarterback, something not many can say.

RBs
Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Rashaad Penny, and DeeJay Dallas: It was bad enough when we had to worry about Penny stealing work from Carson. Now we have to worry about the free agent acquisition Hyde, as well as the fourth-round rookie Dallas. It does help to know that Penny is likely to start the season on the PUP list (out the first six games), but why did they feel the need to snag Hyde when they had Travis Homer and Dallas on the roster? Carson has looked much better than Hyde, but do we have to worry about his hip injury that we thought required surgery? There’s been a lot made of his fumbles (he had seven of them, lost four) but his workload wasn’t affected as much as we thought it would be. There were just two games where Carson didn’t hit 15-plus carries. The only other players who can say that are Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, both players who are being drafted either in the first or second round. The positive here is that the running backs have averaged 31.7 carries/targets per game under Brian Schottenheimer the last two years. That’s a lot of work to go around. My best guess would be that Hyde mixes in and gets 6-8 carries per game, while Carson retains the workhorse role over the first six weeks. Once Penny gets back, though, it’s going to get ugly. Again, you also have to worry about Carson’s hip. It’s clear Carson shouldn’t be drafted as a top-12 running back with all the uncertainty, but what about his price tag at the end of the third round? That’s a bit too pricey for my taste, as I’d be okay pulling the trigger in the latter parts of the fourth round. James Conner is going a full round later but we don’t have to wonder whether or not he’s sharing with someone like Hyde. As for Hyde’s stock, he’s a handcuff for at least the first six weeks. After that, he’s probably going to be droppable because Penny is more talented. If your league is adding PUP spots or IR spots due to everything going on, Penny is worth a pick in one of the final rounds (his ADP is 201 overall). If you don’t have those spots, he’s undraftable. Dallas is a wildcard, as the Seahawks clearly didn’t need a running back, but they drafted him in the fourth round. This is clearly a messy backfield to invest in, even though it’s been profitable. *Update* Carson had a situation with his family (death) and has left training camp for an undisclosed amount of time. Stay tuned as your draft approaches.

WRs
Tyler Lockett: It was a tale of two different seasons for Lockett, as he started out the year hot, but then had an injury derail his production. Here’s what I’m talking about:

Clearly, he was affected by a serious shin contusion that had him in the hospital. I won’t pretend that D.K. Metcalf started removing some of his elite target upside, but even Lockett’s efficiency went down the tube. Combining Lockett’s games under Brian Schottenheimer prior to the shin injury, he’s totaled 116 receptions for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns over a span of 25 games. That’s pretty dang good. Knowing that I’m projecting a rise in pass attempts for the Seahawks overall, Lockett should see 110-plus targets as long as he’s healthy, a number that goes very far with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. Seriously, stop talking about regression when it comes to Wilson’s receivers. First it was Doug Baldwin. Regression never really happened. Then there was Lockett. Next, it’ll be Metcalf. Lockett is perfectly fine as your WR2. He’s the safer of the Seahawks receivers because his role is locked in. If the Seahawks were to sign or bring in someone like Josh Gordon/Antonio Brown, that would affect Metcalf a lot more.

D.K. Metcalf: Remember when most people said Metcalf was “raw” and could only run the go-route? Or how about he had no agility because his three-cone drill was bad? Or how about that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, and Andy Isabella went before him? Yeah, me too. Despite having a knee scope done during the last preseason, Metcalf managed to make it back for Week 1 where he racked up 89 yards on six targets. He wound up tallying nine games with more than 60 yards, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. That doesn’t even count his playoff game against the Eagles where he broke the rookie record for receiving yards (160) in a playoff game. There was progression in his routes as the year went on, and he’s been working out with Russell Wilson at his house this offseason. At 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds, the ceiling is endless with Metcalf, who has true WR1 potential as soon as this year. The biggest concern is that the Seahawks were looking into Antonio Brown, which tells me they may add another perimeter wide receiver. It would directly impact his target upside if that were to happen, and not as much Tyler Lockett. Because of that, Lockett is the safer pick this year, though it’s Metcalf who has the higher ceiling.

Phillip Dorsett and David Moore: It’s kind of crazy how some wide receivers are just glued to elite quarterbacks no matter where they go. Dorsett fits that bill after playing with Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and now Russell Wilson. With no offseason, it may be difficult for him to get the nod over Moore, but if he did, his skill set would probably fit very well with Wilson. I say that because Wilson completed 48.2 percent of his passes over 20 yards and had a QB Rating of 119.2 on them. While in New England last year, he saw 17 deep balls, though only five were catchable. He caught all of them for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Both are battling for the No. 3 in targets, so it’s not like either will be a weekly producer, but Dorsett is the one with the better pedigree, and his skill set aligns with Wilson’s strength. If Lockett were to miss time, Dorsett actually played very well in the slot for the Patriots, catching 13-of-14 targets for 218 yards and three touchdowns. He’s someone I’ve snagged quite a few times at the end of best ball drafts.

TEs
Greg Olsen and Will Dissly: The signing of Olsen may have been insurance for Dissly, who was recovering from Achilles surgery. Dissly actually practiced with the team the other day, highlighting that he may not be going to the PUP list after all. If that’s the case, we don’t have a clear-cut winner. Olsen is a proven veteran who didn’t sign to sit on the bench all season. Dissly has been extremely good when on the field but is coming off what might be the worst injury imaginable in the NFL. If I were to guess, they play it safe and ease Dissly into game action, meaning Olsen is the better fantasy option early in the year. I don’t know what that means exactly, as Dissly would still likely get snaps and cap his upside. The Seahawks tight ends haven’t accumulated more than 85 receptions in a season ever since Russell Wilson took over, and their wide receivers/running backs are as good as ever. When you start to divvy that up, you can see the predicament. Still, the Seahawks tight ends have scored 38 touchdowns over the last four years, so there’s bound to be value somewhere. If Dissly goes to the PUP list, Olsen will have low-end TE1 value early in the season. If they’re both active and a go for Week 1, I think Dissly probably outscores him over the course of the season, but that’s far from a guarantee. I’ll leave you with a fun fact regarding Dissly’s start to his career. He’s only played (and been targeted) in 10 games, but he’s posted TE1-type numbers in six of them (60 percent), which is the same percentage as George Kittle‘s career mark. Small sample size, but good to know.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB
Tom Brady: The end of an era. Crazy to write Brady’s name under the Bucs, but hey, this might be the least crazy thing about 2020. He’s going from Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. That should help his shockingly low 6.6 yards per attempt from 2019. Not only that, but 2019 was the first time in Brady’s career where he didn’t have a touchdown percentage of 4.0 or above. It was also the first time since 2004 where he completed less than 61 percent of his passes. Will the upgrade in receivers help him get back on track, or are we at the end for the greatest of all-time? The Patriots offensive line was not particularly good last year, so when you combined that with Brady’s inability to move at all, you get bad numbers. The Bucs offensive line hasn’t been good over the last few years, though they were slightly better in 2019, and they did draft tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round, highlighting the fact that they know Brady needs protection. They don’t have a James White/Julian Edelman on the roster to be his safety valve, though I suspect Godwin will become that player to him. Will the pass attempts drop off from Jameis Winston? Probably, but know that Bruce Arians has not fallen out of the top 20 in pass attempts since back in 2010. His teams have now been top-five in each of his last three years as a coach. Knowing they don’t have a running back like Saquon Barkley on the roster, we should expect 580-plus pass attempts, and if you look at the receivers on the roster, and what their career averages are when it comes to yards per target, yards per reception, touchdowns, etc., it’s hard to say Brady won’t finish as a top-12 quarterback in 2020. There’s risk that he’s just flat-out done, as well as risk of chemistry with no offseason, but Brady did workout with a lot of the skill-position players even when the NFL advised against it. He’s not a top-five candidate, but if you snag him as a back-end QB1, he shouldn’t lose you fantasy leagues. If you’d like to read about Brady more in-depth, I wrote an article after he signed with the Bucs here.

RBs
Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, LeSean McCoy, Dare Ogunbowale, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn: There was a lot of guessing going on throughout the offseason on who would be the starting running back, but Bruce Arians quieted those questions in early August when he said flat out, “RoJo is the main guy; he’ll carry the load,” without hesitation. “All of those other guys are fighting for roles – [for] who goes in second when he gets tired, maybe who is the third-down guy. But they’re all fighting for a role and special teams will have a lot to do with that.” That’s about as clear as it gets. Even McCoy said he’s just there to mentor Jones and the young running backs. Jones was the only running back on the roster last year to average more than 3.3 yards per carry (he averaged 4.2), and though Arians didn’t remain consistent with the touches he’d give, we did see Jones finish the year strong, totaling 183 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, and then chipping in with another five receptions for 42 yards over the final two games. It seems like it’s a popular thing to rip on Jones for him being a “bad receiver,” but I’m not even sure where that comes from. Yards per route run is often a good measuring stick of future success. There were 64 running backs who ran at least 100 routes in 2019. The top five in Yards per route run were: Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Washington, Dalvin Cook, James White, and… Ronald Jones. Stop saying he’s a bad receiver. Some will say pass blocking is an issue. Again, we’re talking about limited samples, but Jones pass blocked on just 51 snaps last year, allowing two hits and one sack. Knowing how confidently Arians sounds when dubbing Jones as the lead back, he belongs in the RB3 conversation with top-15 upside in what should be a high-scoring offense. Vaughn has already fallen behind on the offense after he was forced to leave the team with COVID. He’s probably the long-term handcuff but knowing Arians hasn’t fully trusted young inexperienced running backs, he may not add much value this year. They added McCoy because of the forced absence of Vaughn. If Jones were to fumble, that’s where McCoy would come onto the field, but if he couldn’t get anything going with the Chiefs, I doubt he’s going to get anything going on the Bucs. And lastly, Ogunbowale is the closest thing the Bucs have to James White, so he may actually offer some use in PPR formats, though this is now a crowded backfield. Ogunbowale pass blocked 77 times last year and allowed just one hit and one sack. Bottom line is that you want the starting running back in this offense. As of now, that’s Jones, and it’s tough to see anyone else taking that. *Update* Fournette has been signed, making this backfield even harder to project. Bruce Arians has said that it’s still Jones’ job and that he’s the main guy, but we have to face the facts. They didn’t play Jones over Peyton Barber, who is just a guy. They drafted Vaughn in the third round. They signed LeSean McCoy and have since said they won’t release him. They then signed Fournette. All of it screams that they’re not happy with their current depth chart. While Jones will begin the year as the starter, I believe Fournette takes over within a few weeks. Fournette should be considered a high-end RB3 who’ll have a slow start to the fantasy season. Jones is someone who falls into RB4 territory. McCoy and Vaughn are both undraftable. 

WRs
Chris Godwin: NextGenStats tracks each player’s usage and routes throughout every game, and I wish I could remember who posted it, but Godwin’s routes were essentially the same exact ones that Bruce Arians used for Larry Fitzgerald back in Arizona. That’s a very good thing. I want to do an exercise with you. Close your eyes and imagine Tom Brady dropping back to pass. What do you see? Do you see him muscling a pass towards the sideline? I didn’t think so. I also saw him targeting a receiver over the middle of the field. Godwin played 63.4 percent of his snaps last year in the slot. He was second in the league in slot yards (838) behind only Cooper Kupp, and despite seeing 31 fewer slot targets than Kupp, he only finished with 15 fewer yards and the same number of touchdowns. Godwin’s average depth of target was 10.4 yards last year while Mike Evans‘ was 15.3 yards. The average depth of target for Brady last year was 7.6 yards down the field. It’s clear that Godwin should quickly become a favorite of Brady, who hates to take risks, as Godwin is a better separator than Evans. Believe it or not, there’s a clear path for Godwin to finish as the WR1 in 2020. I don’t say that about many receivers. He’s in the tier immediately after Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, and Julio Jones.

Mike Evans: There are a lot of people who’ll point out the fact that Evans finished as a WR1 in 2019 despite missing three games. Well, I hate to break it to you, but he was not a WR1 in terms that actually matter to you, the fantasy player. Despite averaging an elite 9.1 targets per game, Evans posted WR2 or better-type numbers in just 38.5 percent of his games. That ranked 28th among wide receivers. Seriously, guys like Sterling Shepard, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder had higher percentages. Now you take away Jameis Winston, someone who was more than willing to throw the ball into tight coverage all the time, and swap him with one of the most risk averse quarterbacks in football? Evans’ 2.4 yards of separation at target was one of the worst marks among wide receivers, and while it doesn’t tell the full story, those who watch Evans knows he uses his body extremely well to box out defenders rather than gain multiple yards of separation with precision route running. Look, he’s still a good player who’s totaled at least 1,000 yards in each of his first six NFL seasons, so I’m not completely writing him off, though it does help that he’s seen at least 8.7 targets per game over the last five years. I don’t think Brady is as bad as some think at throwing the deep ball anymore, I just don’t think he does it nearly as often as Winston did/was willing to. I’m expecting a slight dip in targets and less air yards, which in turn, equals less production for a player like Evans. It’s not bad if you land him as your WR2, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a WR1.

Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Justin Watson: The Bucs have talked about running more 2TE sets, which makes sense given their strength at the position, but they’re going to go 3WR over half the time, so one of these guys will be on the field for 30-plus snaps. You’d think it’d be Johnson after they used a fifth-round pick on him, but given the lack of offseason, it’s going to be tough to walk in and get immediate snaps. If Godwin moves to the slot in 3WR sets (where he did last year most of the time), that will likely mean that Watson would get the first shot. He got an opportunity at the end of last year when he tallied 24 targets over the final four games, turning them into 14 receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns. That was with Jameis Winston, and without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the majority of them, but he played well enough. Still, we’re talking about the No. 3 receiver for Tom Brady, a quarterback who rarely supported even two consistent fantasy options. The best a No. 3 wide receiver finished with Brady was WR48, and that was back in 2007. Unless there’s an injury to Godwin or Evans, there’s no reason to own any of these players.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard: I believe the move to sign Gronkowski was a great one, as it at least provided Brady with a level of familiarity. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to be great for fantasy. Do you remember the last time Gronkowski was on the field? He failed to top 44 yards in 7-of-13 games and scored in just three of them. He then proceeded to lose a lot of weight, get away from the game for a year, and then return, only to learn a new system in Tampa Bay. That’s a lot of obstacles, right? I’ve always been a Gronk supporter, but there are other options out there who offer more stability at tight end. Don’t forget that he also hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2011. I’d be willing to snag Gronk if he falls into the 10th round or so, but before then, you’re just taking on too many variables/risks. Howard is going to be playing behind Gronkowski, and that might not be a bad thing, as we know he’s learning/growing as a player and can likely use a veteran like Gronkowski around. And if Gronkowski were to miss any time, Howard would step into a TE1 role with Brady. You don’t need to spend a pick on Howard in redraft leagues, but trading for him at rock-bottom prices in dynasty makes too much sense. Did you know that Howard is still the all-time leader in yards per target (10.4) at the tight end position while Gronkowski is No. 2 on that list (9.9)?

Tennessee Titans

QB
Ryan Tannehill: When someone goes from anywhere in between 6.7 and 7.7 yards per attempt throughout their first six years, then jumps up to 9.6 yards per target, we call that an outlier, especially when said outlier contains just a 286-pass attempt sample size. We can’t ignore it, though. Tannehill put his name on the record books, as his 117.5 QB Rating in 2019 ranks as the fourth-best all-time. His 0.67 fantasy points per actual pass attempt ranked as the fourth-best mark over the last 10 years. What made it all that more impressive is that he was sacked every 10.8 dropbacks, which was the third-most often in the league. By comparison, Drew Brees was sacked every 32.5 dropbacks. So, that leaves us saying, “Okay, we know there’ll be regression, but how much?” Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans have run exactly 58.8 plays per game in each of his first two seasons as head coach. We know they want to be a run-first team, right? That’s why the pass attempts have been 432 in 2018 and 448 in 2019. That’s a problem. For the sake of argument, let’s raise that number to 500, which would be a massive difference. Even assigning Tannehill a number of 8.3 yards per attempt (Patrick Mahomes‘ number from 2019), it would amount to 4,150 yards. Then let’s say he throws a touchdown on 5.0 percent of his passes (Dak Prescott from 2019). That would amount to 25 touchdowns. So, 4,150 passing yards and 25 touchdowns while comparing him to Mahomes and Prescott, while raising his pass attempts up to 500? Do you see why it makes little sense to think Tannehill even approaches top-10 territory? By comparison, Tom Brady threw for 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns last year – he was hardly usable. Treat Tannehill as a streamer and you’ll be happy. He’s a great No. 2 quarterback to have in Superflex/2QB leagues because he’s locked into the job and has shown top-five upside, even if it’s highly improbable.

RBs
Derrick Henry and Darrynton Evans: Let the games begin. Despite the best teams in the NFL knowing the run was coming, Henry demolished the NFL playoffs. He racked up 446 yards and two touchdowns on the ground through just three games and added another 21 yards through the air. He finished the season with 103-plus rushing yards in 7-of-9 games, including 149 or more in six of them. I won’t lie; when everyone talked about Henry as a first-round pick in 2020 immediately after the playoffs, I scoffed at it, saying that there are more consistent options, especially in PPR formats. That was until I sat down to do the Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between articles. Check this out:

Here he is next to the other running backs being taken inside the top-10. Henry is in a different class than Mixon, Chubb, and Jacobs. It’s not to say that he can’t regress and they can’t progress, but you can’t say he was inconsistent. What makes Henry even more unbelievable is this: The Titans are the only team in the NFL whose running backs have averaged less than 1.0 yards before contact in each of the last two years. So, losing Jack Conklin at right tackle may not be that big of a loss when you consider that. This team will ride or die with Henry, we know that. If they give him just the slightest of uptick in targets, his floor only goes up, and we already know he has a massive ceiling. I’m taking him as the sixth running back off the board. As for Evans, he’s not remotely close to the back that Henry is. While I though Evans would be a good timeshare back, he’s nothing more than a handcuff to Henry, but let’s not pretend the offense would be close to the same without Henry in it. We already discussed the poor offensive line play. He’s a handcuff, just not an elite one.

WRs
A.J. Brown: Prior to the NFL Draft last year, I had D.K. Metcalf as my 1A receiver and Brown as my 1B. Loved them both, but Metcalf’s landing spot moved him into the driver’s seat. Maybe I underestimated just how much Brown could do without an elite quarterback. Despite not being a full-time player until Week 9 and seeing just 84 targets, Brown finished as the No. 21 wide receiver in his rookie season. There have been just 10 wide receivers over the last 10 years who’ve finished as a top-24 fantasy receiver while seeing fewer than 87 targets. Going back to when Ryan Tannehill started playing, Brown received a very stable 21 percent target share. That’s not elite. Not bad, but not elite. Let’s go from Week 9 through Week 17 when Brown moved to a full-time role. Brown’s target share was 24 percent in that time, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. If we project Tannehill for 480-500 pass attempts, that’d amount to 115-120 targets. It is possible Brown’s target share goes up but staying at 24 percent feels like it’s repeatable. It’s important to note that Brown averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards after the catch last year, a number that isn’t repeatable. You typically won’t see even the best of the best receivers average more than 6.0 yards after the catch. If you move Brown down to the 5.5 range, he would’ve recorded 187 fewer yards and finished as the WR28. Then you must factor in Tannehill’s ridiculous 7.7 percent touchdown rate regressing, so don’t automatically assume that Brown’s efficiency remains the same. He’s still a phenomenal talent, but he needs to get the bump in pass attempts to take the next step. If I were guaranteed 500 pass attempts out of Tannehill, I’d draft him as a low-end WR1. It’s best to be a bit cautious though and have some equity built in, making him a WR2 with serious upside.

Corey Davis: It wasn’t long ago where we were drafting Davis as a top-30 receiver with breakout potential. He’s now going outside the top-60 wide receivers. It certainly doesn’t help that he had to have toe surgery and is now missing time with the team. It’s nothing major but it does put him at a major disadvantage when A.J. Brown has overtaken the alpha role on the team. When a team has averaged just 440 pass attempts over the last two years, it’s tough to find more than one player with value. The wide receivers have averaged 251 targets per season and a 57 percent target share. So, even if we get Tannehill to 480 pass attempts, we’re looking at 274 targets for the receivers, and we know Brown is getting roughly 21-25 percent of the overall target share. It does help that Tajae Sharpe and his 35 targets are gone, so we’re trying to find a way to divvy up 135-158 targets between Davis and Adam Humphries (and others). That’s enough for him to be reliable at times, especially if Tannehill can maintain some momentum from last year. We also can’t forget that if Brown were to miss time, Davis would likely step into that 20-25 percent target share, and as a former first-round talent in a contract year, he could surprise. He has a little bit of a DeVante Parker feel to him, because make no mistake about it, Davis is a good football player. I like him as a late-round bench stash.

Adam Humphries: Remember when he was a target monster in Tampa Bay just two years ago and finished as a top-30 wide receiver? He dealt with injuries throughout the year, resulting in limited playing time and just 47 targets on the season. Even worse is that once A.J. Brown entered the lineup on a full-time basis, Humphries didn’t see more than four targets in a game. Even if Humphries were to do something, it’s not going to make you wonder how you missed it, because his ceiling is a fringe WR3. Shoot for upside in the later rounds. He doesn’t have it.

TE
Jonnu Smith: Did you know there are three teams who’ve finished top-12 in tight end scoring over each of the last five years? The Chiefs, Eagles, and… Titans. Yep, even last year when they finished with the eighth most fantasy points as a team. Does that mean there could be a Smith breakout this season? Possibly, but let’s not forget that Delanie Walker missed nine games last year and Smith saw just 44 targets on the season. This has nothing to do with talent, because when you hear Bill Belichick mention Smith as one of the most talented at the position, you pay attention. No matter what the reason is for him not getting more targets, there’s something that’s been blocking him from a breakout. It’s not efficiency, as he averaged 10.0 yards per target (better than Kelce, Kittle, etc.) and scored a touchdown every 14.7 targets. There were two games during the season where he saw zero targets. That’s unacceptable for a player who’s supposed to be on the verge of a breakout. That’s what worries me about Smith, is that he’s on a run-first offense that will throw the ball 20 times in a game if that’s all they have to, leaving you in the dust. Because of that, he’s a high-end TE2 for me, but one who could take a massive leap this year.

Washington Football Team

QBs
Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith: Yes, Alex Smith has been cleared for football activities. No, that does not mean he’s ready to play football yet. I’m rooting for him, as it’s a phenomenal story, but this is Haskins’ team for the foreseeable future. Looking at his numbers over his rookie season, they weren’t what you’d call good, though if you break them down by week, he was getting better. He threw four interceptions on his first 22 NFL passes. From that point, he threw seven touchdowns to three interceptions over his next 181 pass attempts. It’s such a small sample size we have to go off, and on top of that, he has an entirely new coaching staff behind him. For a quarterback who was supposed to take time to develop, there are more changes than you’d prefer. The biggest issue is his offensive line that may not be able to give him more than a couple seconds after trading away Trent Williams. Outside of Terry McLaurin, he really doesn’t have any proven commodities in the passing game, either. Generally, when a team has a new head coach, we see them have a big decrease in pass attempts unless they go from a defensive-minded coach to an offensive one. That’s not the case here, meaning Haskins is unlikely to throw the ball a whole lot. Let’s be real – you’re not drafting him in 1QB leagues, and he’s not someone you’re aiming for in 2QB leagues, either.

RBs
Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Peyton Barber, and Bryce Love: Welcome to the worst backfield to project in all of fantasy football. Ok, maybe that’s the 49ers, but this one is worse for me considering there’s not much value to be had on a bad offense. Do you really think Peterson re-signed with Washington so he could sit on the bench? Even if Derrius Guice was still on the team, Peterson was going to get carries. Did you realize he’s totaled 462 carries over the last two years? That ranks ninth in the NFL. He’s been pretty good on them, too, totaling 4.20 yards per carry and scoring 12 touchdowns. He’s going to eat up at least 10 carries per game, which is a good chunk of the pie. Gibson is the one people are clamoring to in the middle rounds as the first Washington running back off the board, though it requires some serious foresight to get there. Yes, he’s 6-feet tall and 228 pounds, and ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. He also didn’t total 80 touches in college. Seriously, he totaled just 77 touches in his two years at Memphis. To be fair, he was highly efficient with those touches, but suddenly projecting him for 10-15 touches per game as a rookie is a bit of a leap. So you know, McKissic had more touches last year than Gibson did during his whole college career. We don’t even know how Washington will use him. Is he a slot receiver for them? Is he a running back? Ron Rivera has said he views him as a running back, but they have him taking part in wide receiver meetings as well. Signing Barber to a 2-year, $3 million contract? Why? That signing was an odd one for me and it screamed we’re going to have a committee. He’s averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last three seasons and doesn’t offer anything in the passing game. Love is the wildcard here, though injuries have added up over the years. He was out all of last year but finally got the go-ahead to play in 2020. He would’ve been a first-round pick back in 2018 if he’d entered the draft instead of returning to college. With no preseason action, it’s going to be tough for Love to make an impression coming off his torn ACL, but as someone who rushed for over 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2017 at Stanford, you should keep an eye on his ascension up the depth chart. In the end, I don’t want to invest much into this backfield. Peterson is who he is, which is a boring low-upside RB4 you play in a pinch. Gibson is interesting as a potentially explosive playmaker, but you’re paying quite a bit to find out (going around RB35 after Guice news). I’m okay letting someone else take that risk.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: It was remarkable what McLaurin was able to do last year while playing on one of the worst teams in football. The disappointing part was that even though he saw 37.1 percent of his team’s air yards (sixth in the NFL), he finished with just 93 targets. Knowing it’s unlikely we see a big increase in pass attempts, it’s hard for him to see an air yards number that is much higher. The reason we can be semi-optimistic with his targets is due to the lack of options around him. Kelvin Harmon and Paul Richardson are gone, along with the 86 targets they saw last year. In comes rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden, and veteran Dontrelle Inman, who was recently signed off the street. If we look at offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s offense last year, you’ll see it was very top-heavy when it came to the wide receivers, as D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel both hit 106-plus targets. I can’t say there’s anyone else on this Washington receiver depth chart that deserves more than 75 targets. This could be very similar to A.J. Brown, where we’re looking at a player who might get a 25 percent target share in his offense, even if it is a low volume one. The difference is that McLaurin’s quarterback hasn’t ever posted all-time great numbers, and it’s unreasonable to expect that. Still, McLaurin can likely live up to low-end WR2 expectations, though getting him as your WR3 is the ideal scenario.

Steven Sims: It would really make sense for Washington to use Sims in a bigger role this year, as he looked the part at the end of 2019. Over the team’s final four games, he racked up 36 targets, 20 receptions, 230 yards, and four touchdowns while manning the slot. Sure, Antonio Gibson is the new toy in the offense, but Ron Rivera has already said that he views him as a running back. When Washington goes three-wide, Sims should be out there in the slot, but that’s just my opinion. We could see Gibson or even Trey Quinn play that role. Without preseason action, there are just too many question marks. Depending on which receiver is in the slot, he should have some value throughout the year as a streamer, but you shouldn’t need to spend a late draft pick on them, as that is your time to take ultra-high upside picks.

Antonio Gandy-Golden: Everyone is talking about Antonio Gibson as the physical specimen on the team, but Gandy-Golden is remarkable in his own right. He doesn’t run a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, but he is very agile for a player who’s 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. The biggest question mark with him is his adjustment to the stiffer competition, as he dominated at Liberty, racking up 2,433 yards and 20 touchdowns over his two years there. Once Kelvin Harmon went down with a torn ACL, it opened a door for Gandy-Golden to play opposite Terry McLaurin and make his mark. With no legitimate tight end on the roster, we could see Gandy-Golden become a favorite inside the red zone. Not that we’re expecting Dwayne Haskins to throw 25-plus touchdowns, but we didn’t expect anything from McLaurin last year, right? I’ll be reporting on his snaps in The Primer after Week 1, so make sure you stay tuned. Given the leap in competition, he may start out behind veteran Dontrelle Inman.

Dontrelle Inman: The veteran has jumped from team-to-team, and always seems to find his way into production, though it’s not enough to roster him in fantasy leagues.

TEs
Jeremy Sprinkle and Thaddeus Moss: This is how we’re closing out this article, huh? Well, that’s upsetting. Sprinkle had the starting job throughout last year and didn’t have a single game with more than 36 yards and scored one touchdown on 40 targets. It’s a new offense, sure, but he’s not the answer. Moss is the son of legendary wide receiver Randy Moss, but he’s a rookie and one who’s coming off broken foot surgery from back in March. While there was certainly time to recover, we already know that rookie tight ends have a steep learning curve, especially with what seems like no offseason activities. Moss is the one who could potentially become a player in this league that you’ll want to know about, but it’s not likely to be this year. Don’t waste a pick on Washington tight ends this year.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.