The Primer: Draft Day Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Rams

QB
Jared Goff: I can’t explain what happened to Goff after that game in 2018 where the Rams went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs (remember that 54-51 game?) but something happened. In his first 26 games under Sean McVay, Goff threw 54 touchdowns on 858 pass attempts (6.3 percent touchdown rate). Since that Chiefs game in 2018, he’s thrown just 28 touchdowns in 21 games on 806 pass attempts (3.5 percent touchdown rate). That’s not great for a quarterback who offers nothing with his legs. He did throw two touchdowns in eight games last year but didn’t hit three touchdowns until Week 17. Now you take away Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, only to replace them with Van Jefferson and Cam Akers? It’s quite ridiculous, but the Rams didn’t address the offensive line issues, either. Their offensive line was among the worst in football last year, which is a problem because Goff isn’t good under pressure. He ranked 25th among quarterbacks with a 60.4 QB Rating under duress. The offensive line is the biggest concern for me, as that’s the one thing that took a major step back last year, and it seriously impacted his numbers. The good news is that his pass attempts have been skyrocketing, which help make up for some of the decreased efficiency. Goff makes for a decent No. 2 quarterback in Superflex/2QB leagues, as he’s not getting benched, and there’s always the possibility he goes back to who he was, though I’m not counting on it based on the moves that were – and weren’t – made this offseason.

RBs
Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, and Malcolm Brown: I remember during draft prep season, everyone and their grandmother was saying that Akers struggled at Florida State due to the poor offensive line play. Then he was drafted by the Rams in the second round. For whatever reason, nobody talked about Akers falling behind what is likely a bottom-five offensive line. His ADP was around RB24 earlier in the offseason, though it’s fallen to the RB30 range after Sean McVay came forward and said it’ll be much more of a timeshare in 2020. Here’s a quote from July: “I think it’ll just naturally work itself out. I think if you look at that success San Fran had last year with that running back-by-committee approach. What I thought Kyle Shanahan and their players did a great job of is, ‘Hey, we’re going to have an open-mind approach, we’re going to be committed to trying to have some balance and then we’ll go with the hot hand or whoever really expresses himself as deserving of the carries.” That’s the last thing you want to hear. Don’t forget they traded up to draft Darrell Henderson last year in the third round, too. The bottom line is that no running back averaged more than 3.8 yards per carry behind this offensive line in 2019. Akers is the one they drafted in the second round this year, so you must assume they want him to win the job, but to expect more than 10-14 touches per game to start the year would be a mistake. Under McVay, the Rams running backs have averaged 413.7 touches per year, or 25.9 per game. That’s a far cry from the 31.3 that 49ers running backs averaged last year. If this is a timeshare, it’s going to be messy, as there aren’t enough touches to go around. Akers should be drafted as nothing more than a RB3/flex-type option who you’re hoping shines with no offseason. That’s tough for a rookie behind this offensive line. Henderson is likely the one who offers better value, as he’s being drafted three full rounds behind Akers. In fact, I don’t think it’s a bad strategy to snag both of them given their cost, but you must understand the downside… that they’re like the 49ers running backs. I’m not buying the Brown talk for a second, as they wouldn’t have drafted John Kelly in the sixth, Henderson in the third, and Akers in the second if they felt like he was the solution.

WRs
Robert Woods: I’ve been on record as saying Woods doesn’t have that elite upside to finish as a top-six wide receiver or anything. That’s still true in my mind considering he hasn’t topped six receiving touchdowns in a single season. In fact, he’s scored just 13 receiving touchdowns during his 43 career games with the Rams. Still, that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent receivers in football. Don’t believe me?

Here, he’s compared to two receivers who are being drafted as top-eight options. Woods is coming off the board as the 25th wide receiver. These are the numbers over the last three years for Woods and Evans. I only included two years from Golladay, as he wasn’t a full-time starter in 2017. Even better? Woods had a bigger role as the year went on and the Rams moved away from Brandin Cooks. There are questions surrounding how the Rams will use Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, but there’s no questions around Woods, who’s cemented in his role. To know that Woods has been this consistent while not scoring a lot of touchdowns speaks volumes. He’s a rock-solid WR2 to have on your team, and even better, you get him at WR3 prices.

Cooper Kupp: It was a tale of two seasons for Kupp last year, as he was the No. 2 receiver in fantasy football through eight games, tallying 58 receptions for 792 yards and five touchdowns. He then fell off hard, finishing as the No. 31 receiver over the final eight games, totaling just 36 receptions for 369 yards and five touchdowns. The Rams started moving towards more 12 personnel, which includes two tight ends, which in turn leaves just two wide receivers on the field. Knowing Kupp is a slot receiver by nature, it affects him greatly. He actually played just 61 percent of the team’s snaps in Weeks 16 and 17. But I’d argue that Jared Goff needs him on the field. While targeting Kupp, Goff posted a 117.0 QB Rating. While targeting everyone else, that number is just 78.6. Sean McVay is consistently evolving as a play caller, which bodes well for Kupp, as he’ll likely be expanded to different roles moving forward. There are question marks, that much we know. However, we have still yet to see a “bad” season from Kupp in the NFL. I don’t consider him as safe as his teammate Robert Woods, but Kupp should still be considered a low-end WR2 who has more touchdown upside. I mean, he’s scored 21 receiving touchdowns in 39 career games. Woods has 25 receiving touchdowns in 100 career games. We’ve actually seen Kupp be a top-three wide receiver for half of an NFL season, and it was last year.

Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson: These two will battle for the No. 3 wide receiver spot on the team, which is rather important, as the Rams constantly target their wide receivers. In 2019, they targeted them 372 times, which ranked as the third most in the NFL. It’s far from a guarantee that’ll keep up, though, as the Rams moved to more 2TE sets as the year went on, which is part of the reason Brandin Cooks saw just 72 targets through 14 games played. We’ve seen Reynolds in a full-time role before and though he wasn’t highly efficient, he was usable with the targets he received. Them spending a second-round pick on Jefferson highlights just how much they liked him, and he fits the Cooks mold more than Reynolds does, so it’s possible he wins the job, but with no offseason, that’ll be difficult. Reynolds did score five touchdowns on 53 targets in 2018 and he knows the offense, so there’s a chance he provides spot-start value if the Rams move back to more 11 personnel.

TEs
Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett: Through 10 weeks last season, Higbee never topped 64 percent of the snaps played. His percentages from Week 11 forward were: 76, 70, 91, 97, 86, 89, and 96. You know where his production came from now? It should come as no shock that his increase in snaps came when Everett was out of the lineup (missed four full games and parts of others). Still, how do you take a guy who posted 84-plus yards in five straight games off the field? Did you know that he’s the only tight end to ever do that? It didn’t hurt that he played the Cardinals twice and Seahawks during that stretch, as they were the two worst teams in the league against the tight end position. We also can’t forget that Higbee didn’t top 48 yards in 56 of his first 58 games, and that they drafted Everett in the second round with him on the roster. But again, how do you take him off the field after those performances? If we knew he’d be playing 80-plus percent of the snaps, he’d be drafted as a top-five tight end, but we don’t know that for sure. His ADP of TE8 feels like it has the risk built into it, so he’s fine to select in that range, as he has top-five upside. In a recent interview, Rams tight end coach Wes Phillips said that Everett is maybe the best athlete he’s ever coached. Many have already forgotten that Everett had a solid stretch of games, racking up 49 targets, 28 receptions, 322 yards, and two touchdowns from Weeks 4-10 and was the No. 7 tight end during that stretch. If both are on the field, this would certainly cap both of their upside. They say you can’t lose your job to injury, but I think Everett did in 2019. He’s an interesting dart throw in best-ball or 2TE formats, though.

Miami Dolphins

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa: We’ve already heard Fitzpatrick say that he’s “just a placeholder” for Tagovailoa, but it wouldn’t be wise to throw a rookie quarterback coming off hip surgery to the wolves with no game experience in Week 1. The Dolphins bye isn’t until Week 11, which is a long time for Tagovailoa to be waiting in the wings. You want to find a soft spot in their schedule to start him, but looking at their schedule, there’s only a small window in Weeks 3 against the Jaguars, but that’s proceeded by games against the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, and Chargers. In all honesty, Week 9 against the Cardinals might make the most sense, as they also get the Jets in Week 10, then their bye week. Whatever the case, Tagovailoa will start at some point. Fitzpatrick was a great streamer in 2019. In fact, he’s been a great streamer the last three years. He’s started just 23 games in that stretch but has posted QB1-type numbers in 14 of them, or 60.9 percent. Did you know that just seven quarterbacks topped 50 percent in 2019? As mentioned, though, the Dolphins don’t have a great start to their schedule. Like most scenarios that have multiple quarterbacks, this is a situation to attack in 2QB/Superflex leagues, as you can snag both of them late in your draft and simply start the one who’s under center. Fitzpatrick already showed he can make it work with the players around him, while Tagovailoa was once considered the No. 1 pick over Joe Burrow.

RBs
Jordan Howard and Matt Breida: After snagging Howard in free agency and signing him to a two-year deal, many thought the Dolphins would select a running back with one of their five picks in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. They didn’t, though. Instead, they traded a fifth-round pick to the 49ers for Breida. Howard has been a steady producer throughout his career to this point, but there’s an important part of this equation that you need to understand. Howard played behind the Bears offensive line that was ranked a consensus top-10 unit when he was there, and then went to an Eagles offensive line that was consensus ranked as a top-three unit. The Dolphins are not anywhere near that territory. Their running backs combined to average 2.96 yards per carry last year, which was dead last in the league. No other team averaged less than 3.29 yards per carry. Now to be fair, they did add Austin Jackson in the first round, Robert Hunt in the second, Solomon Kindley in the fourth, as well as Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency. That’s all great, but with no offseason and potentially five new offensive linemen (three rookies) and a new running back, it’s unlikely there’ll be any continuity. One positive is that new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has had each of his last six teams finish top-14 in yards per carry, so maybe there’s something to his scheme. Knowing Howard offers little-to-nothing in the passing game, it’s tough to see much upside on a team that averaged just 18.3 points per game. He’ll get the goal-line carries, making him a RB3/flex option most weeks, but don’t draft him hoping/expecting a top-20 finish or anything. Breida is interesting, as he’s clearly the better pass-catching option of the two, though he’s still yet to see more than 36 targets in any one season. There were 107 targets to the running backs in Miami last year, so we could see a boost for Breida in that aspect, and he’s averaged a massive 4.99 yards per carry when he’s handed the ball. If Howard’s neck injury were to pop back up or he were to miss time, Breida is talented enough to make a difference in fantasy. Unfortunately, he’s being drafted slightly ahead of Howard, which doesn’t make too much sense. He should be viewed in the RB4 territory.

WRs
DeVante Parker: It’s about time, right? I remember last year on the podcast talking about Parker, saying there’s a clear avenue for him to see 100-plus targets and that if Fitzpatrick was starting, I wanted him on my roster. Here we are 128 targets and a No. 7 wide receiver finish later. Fun fact: Parker and Michael Thomas were the only two receivers who posted at least 55 yards in 13 games last year. You were able to get Parker outside the top 60 wide receivers last year, something that isn’t happening this time around. His current draft position is right around WR20-22, so you’re receiving a discount from last year’s production, and rightfully so. Preston Williams is back from his ACL injury, which isn’t great news for Parker, who was the No. 34 wide receiver through nine weeks with Williams in the lineup. That was really solid for him considering where he was drafted, but once Williams left, Parker exploded and finished as the No. 2 wide receiver the remainder of the season. Part of the reason that happened was due to Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s willingness to target him relentlessly, as he averaged 9.5 targets per game over that span. To be fair, Williams is coming back, but both Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out of the season, clearing up 110 targets from last year. Knowing Fitzpatrick is starting the season under center helps me feel more confident in Parker, but there’s certainly hesitation in drafting him this year as the Dolphins defense is going to be much better, which will result in fewer pass attempts, and that they’ll be moving to a rookie quarterback at some point. I think he’s best viewed as a stable WR3 who comes with top-12 upside. If I knew Fitzpatrick would start all year, he’d be a WR2.

Preston Williams: Did you know that Williams was the No. 39 wide receiver through nine weeks last year? That was despite them having their bye in Week 5, as well as him not being a true starter until Week 3. He was extremely good his rookie year. He’s coming off a torn ACL, which isn’t an injury that’s as detrimental as it used to be, but it may be tough for him to return as the same player in a brand-new offense. The Dolphins defense improved greatly, their run game should be much better, and they’ll eventually transition to a rookie quarterback. These are all question marks, but fortunately, Williams is being drafted outside the top 60 wide receivers, similar to the way DeVante Parker was last year. Given their current prices (Williams WR61, Parker WR22), Williams seems like a much better value than Parker this year. Knowing that Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out, there are plenty of targets up for grabs, making Williams a solid WR4/5 on fantasy teams that you can spot-start depending on matchups.

Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford: Many have asked who will get the biggest boost from the opt-outs of Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns. It’s one of these two receivers. Ford was someone who I thought should’ve been drafted higher (fell to the seventh round), and he showed why late in the season. When called into the starting lineup alongside DeVante Parker in Week 14, Ford racked up 29 targets, 21 receptions, and 235 yards over the team’s final four games. Meanwhile, Grant is a shifty receiver who would fit naturally in the slot role. He has blazing speed and has been reportedly determined to get more touches in the offense after shining on special teams last year. He’s flashed hands and big-play ability during the last three years in smaller roles, though it’s still tough to see the third option in this offense being anyone you can rely on consistently. Knowing Ford played so well down the stretch, I’m guessing the No. 3 job is his, though they could be mixing these two in sporadically.

TE
Mike Gesicki: There are many fantasy enthusiasts out there who think that with the arrival of Chan Gailey, that Gesicki’s stock went through the roof. This is due to him playing 71.8 percent of his snaps last year in the slot, the highest mark of any tight end in the league. Everyone will be quick to remind you of Eric Decker and how he demolished the slot role in Gailey’s offense. My issue is this: Gesicki hasn’t been good. Decker was extremely good before Gailey’s offense. Just because Gesicki played in the slot under the last offensive coordinator, it doesn’t mean Gailey will use him the same way. Now, to be fair, it does help that Albert Wilson opted out, as he occupied the slot most of the time. But if you look at Gailey’s overall target rankings for his tight ends, it’s tough to argue for Gesicki. Here’s the list:

Keep in mind that 2008 season was with Tony Gonzalez, who just happens to be an all-time top-three tight end. Meanwhile, Gesicki has averaged a measly 6.4 yards per target over his first two seasons. He is young and there is a learning curve with young tight ends, so I’m not going to write him off or anything, but I want you to know that Gailey hasn’t been kind to tight ends not named Gonzalez. There are a wide variety of outcomes for Gesicki in 2020. One of them includes him finishing outside the top-15 tight ends, while another has him finishing top-10. If you’re looking for a breakout tight end who can finish top-five, he’s probably not your guy, as this offense just doesn’t score enough. Just don’t reach for him.

Minnesota Vikings

QB
Kirk Cousins: It’s never easy to lose your top receiver during the offseason, which is what happened to Cousins when the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs. They tried to replace him immediately, snagging Justin Jefferson in the first round of the NFL Draft. For a guy who threw just 444 pass attempts and offers no mobility, it’s quite an accomplishment to finish as the No. 15 fantasy quarterback, as Cousins did. Now, with Kevin Stefanski out of town, you must wonder if the offense moves towards a more balanced attack under Gary Kubiak, though he may have been the genius behind the offense last year. Still, it’s unrealistic to think Cousins throws the ball just 444 times again. Not only is the defense going through a rebuild process, but the Vikings just can’t remain that efficient on the ground. Did you know the previous three seasons, Cousins was the (most recent first) QB12, QB6, and QB5? He’s trending in the wrong direction, but he’s still been a usable streamer in 1QB leagues. I’d be shocked if he’s below 500 pass attempts this year, though he is going to become less efficient losing Diggs. Even if we repeated last year’s numbers, Cousins ranked 20th in top-18-type performances, which make him a solid quarterback to use in 2QB/Superflex formats. He has no shot to lose the job, likely sees increased volume, and has finished as a top-five quarterback before. Just don’t draft him in 1QB leagues as a starter for Week 1, because he’s playing the Packers, a team he scored just 8.9 and 6.9 fantasy points against last year.

RBs
Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Mike Boone, and Ameer Abdullah: It appears that Cook is going to play this year despite the threat of holding out without a new contract, though the issue is still lingering without any game action. Stay tuned to the situation. Cook was someone most labeled as “injury prone” over his first two seasons, as he played just 15 games and totaled a combined 969 rushing yards and four touchdowns in them. Insert 2019 and Cook is a surefire top-six pick in fantasy drafts. He exploded for 1,135 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in just 14 games. He also chipped in with another 53 receptions for 519 receiving yards. Some may be concerned about Kevin Stefanski leaving as the coordinator, but Gary Kubiak was the assistant head coach last year, and he’s been known to prop up run games. He’s now coached 14 teams who’ve finished top-eight in the league for rushing attempts. That’s remarkable. The Vikings running backs averaged a league-high 32.5 touches per game last year. Even lowering them to the No. 5-8 range (where Kubiak finishes more often than not), that’d be in the 28-29 touch range. There’s also a route to many more targets for him, as the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and replaced him with a rookie, albeit a first-round one, and I am projecting them to move towards the 500 pass-attempt mark. Knowing Cook is the go-to option in the offense with the majority of touches, he’s someone who can finish as the RB1. He still needs to stay on the field which has been a problem, as he’s missed 19 games over his first three seasons. If you were to assume Cook plays all 16 games, he would be in the top-three conversation with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. If something were to happen to Cook where he missed time, I do believe this team would employ more of a timeshare approach between Mattison, Boone, and Abdullah, though Mattison would still be at least an every-week RB2 start.

WRs
Adam Thielen: It was a down year for Thielen in 2019, who’s suddenly 30 years old (August 22nd, he will be) with back problems. That’s not a recipe for success for a wide receiver, though it helps that he’s the only steady presence at wide receiver. Most will look at the target totals from last year and wonder where his targets come from, but don’t forget that Thielen saw 298 targets over the previous two seasons. Last year was an incredibly efficient year for the Vikings on the ground, and when you combine the fact that Thielen missed half the season, you can understand why their pass attempts came crashing down to earth. With the defense likely taking a step back after losing many starters, we should expect to see their run-to-pass ratio come back towards the league average, which would help Thielen’s target potential. Knowing that he’s the only receiver in the starting lineup who has any chemistry with Cousins, we should expect at least eight targets per game. That calls for him being a high-end WR2 at the very least when he’s in the lineup, though his injury concerns have to be built into his cost. His current ADP is the WR11, which is too expensive for the risk you’re taking on.

Justin Jefferson: In case you didn’t know, Jefferson is coming off a ridiculous season with LSU where he tallied 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns over 15 games. He played the big-slot role for them, which is something the Vikings should take into consideration when figuring out how to best deploy him. Unfortunately, Jefferson wound up on the COVID list and is being forced to miss a lot of camp. Still, he’s a route-running technician who’s playing behind a 30-year-old receiver who’s been dealing with back issues. There’s an avenue where Jefferson is relied upon as a rookie more than most think, though it would likely require Thielen to be out of the lineup. Under Gary Kubiak/Kevin Stefanski last year, the wide receivers saw just 43.2 percent of the target share (4th-lowest mark in the NFL), making it very difficult for multiple options to be fantasy relevant on a week-to-week basis. Because of that, Jefferson is essentially just a wide receiver handcuff.

Tajae Sharpe/Olabisi Johnson: These two are going to be battling for the No. 3 wide receiver job in the Vikings offense, though there’s not much upside. The Vikings receivers totaled just 201 targets last season, so when you know that Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are well ahead of them on the depth chart, you might have a hard time finding even 50 targets. If there’s one to take a late-round pick on in dynasty leagues, it’d be Sharpe, as he showed the ability to perform a bit back in 2016 as a rookie with Marcus Mariota. We then saw him average a rock-solid 9.4 yards per target last year. He can play the slot and will now be playing with the best quarterback of his career.

TEs
Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph: Not many realize that these two were in a 50/50 split last year. Seriously, Rudolph saw 48 targets, Smith saw 47 targets. The reason fantasy owners believe Rudolph was better and saw more targets was due to his touchdowns, as he scored six touchdowns to Smith’s two touchdowns. Was that because they used him more in the red zone? Nope, Rudolph saw 11 red zone targets while Smith saw 10 of them. Keep in mind that it was Smith’s rookie year, while Rudolph is now 30 years old. With that being said, there’s simply not enough targets to go around in this offense for one of them to be consistent in fantasy. Even with Adam Thielen out half of the season and Stefon Diggs seeing just 92 targets, the two of them combined for just 95 targets in 2019. We are anticipating an increase in pass attempts, but even if we get another 30 targets to the tight ends alone (which is a lot), it’s unlikely we see either of these two see more than 70 targets. This is a timeshare to avoid unless one of them misses time. If that were to happen, we’d have a solid streaming opportunity, though Smith is the one who’d present more upside with his career trajectory.

New England Patriots

QBs
Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham: The last time we saw Newton on a football field, he didn’t look so great. His season was ended in 2019 due to a Lisfranc injury that could affect his mobility moving forward, and he also had shoulder surgery after the 2018 season. In the two full games he played in 2019, he rushed for negative two yards. NEGATIVE. He needs the mobility in order to remain relevant in fantasy. Why? Well, do you know how many times he’s thrown more than 24 touchdowns in a season? Once. Jimmy Garoppolo threw 27 last year. I’m not saying that Newton doesn’t have any mobility anymore, but rather that he’s lost a lot of it. Newton rushed for at least 539 yards in each of his first five seasons. Since then, he’s topped 488 rushing yards once (over four years). On top of that, there’ve been just three quarterbacks who’ve rushed for 500 yards after turning 30 years old. Sure, Newton is a physical specimen, but that’s also what likely led to his injuries, as you’re not supposed to be as big as he is and move the way he does. Now you add in a shortened offseason, a new playbook, and new set of wide receivers, yet he’s still expected to return to the old days? He’s going to try, that much is certain. I’m guessing we get Newton Lite, something similar to what we saw in 2016 where he rushed for 359 yards and five touchdowns. I wouldn’t want to draft him with ultra-high expectations, and for what it’s worth, his draft position is perfectly fine, as he’s going around the QB15 in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. By drafting him there, you have no qualms about cutting him for a streamer if things don’t work out. Stidham will be waiting in the wings because you don’t sign Newton to sit him on the bench.

RBs
Sony Michel, Lamar Miller, James White, Damien Harris, and Rex Burkhead: WHAT. A. MESS. This was a crowded backfield before. Can you believe I celebrated a little inside when Brandon Bolden opted out of the season? It made the puzzle a little clearer. But no, the Patriots couldn’t let me have that. Instead, they went out and signed Lamar Miller. We have no idea when Michel will be able to play, as he’s recovering from yet another surgery, this time on his foot. White has always been a value, especially in PPR formats, but with Tom Brady gone, this team is likely to throw a whole lot less, and White has never averaged more than 5.9 carries per game. Harris was a late-round favorite of mine before the Miller signing, as I felt like there was a real shot he could’ve been the Week 1 starter and goal-line back. Heck, I still believe there’s a chance. And then Burkhead is just lingering in the background as someone who’s received 8.3 touches per game in a Patriots uniform over the last three years. The good news is that the Patriots running backs ranked second in the league last year with 32.4 touches per game. The bad news is that none of them are likely to average more than 12-14 touches. Even worse is that even if the touches remain the same overall, it’ll be more carries than receptions, which are obviously worth less. They also just lost quite a few goal-line carries to Cam Newton. The topper on the cake is that they had their starting right tackle (Marcus Cannon) opt out of the season. This is a backfield to avoid, as it’ll likely give you headaches. At their current costs (Michel RB30, White RB34, RB71), Harris is the only one I’d feel okay selecting with a late-round pick.

WRs
Julian Edelman: Did you realize Edelman has seen 793 targets over his last 83 games? That’s a pace of 152.9 targets per season. But what happens when your whole world is flipped upside down? Losing Tom Brady is going to affect Edelman more than anyone, as those two had a connection and were continually on the same page. The Patriots also threw the ball 620 times last year, a number they won’t even come close to in 2020. It’s a different offense, yes, but did you know Cam Newton has never thrown more than 517 pass attempts in a single season? He’s also failed to throw for more than 3,869 yards since his rookie year and has thrown more than 24 touchdowns just once. Meanwhile, Edelman has never averaged more than 7.9 yards per target. What does that mean? Even if he were to get 125 targets, his career-best wouldn’t have totaled 1,000 yards. There’s a lot of issues and question marks surrounding Edelman, and we haven’t even discussed him turning 34 years old this offseason. He’s likely to post low-upside WR3 numbers when on the field, but that’s been a chore in itself, as he’s played all 16 games just three times over his 11 years in the league. If you take the late-WR approach in drafts, it’s not the worst thing to have Edelman as your WR3, but ideally, he’s your WR4 with all the question marks and lack of upside.

N’Keal Harry: If there’s someone who moved up my rankings when Cam Newton signed, it was Harry. I didn’t like him much coming out of college as a wide receiver who didn’t separate very well, but rather one who relied on winning contested catches. I knew he did that very well, but that didn’t mesh well with the risk averse Tom Brady. As for Newton, he’s shown the willingness to target his wide receivers with little separation. Look no further than Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. The last healthy season Newton played, he threw into tight coverage a whopping 20.5 percent of the time. By comparison, Brady only did that 15.2 percent of the time last year and 13.9 percent in 2018. Harry also dealt with some injuries during his rookie season, which prevented him from playing in a full-time role. Will he play over Mohamed Sanu in 2WR sets? Probably not just yet, but he could be a factor in the red zone, where he works best. He’s a touchdown-dependent option, but one who won’t see enough targets to be relevant if Julian Edelman is on the field. If Edelman misses time, Harry would receive a big boost. He’s a bench stash WR5-type.

Mohamed Sanu: There are many who give the Patriots non-stop praise. Well, if it were the Browns who would’ve traded a second-round pick for the soon-to-be 31-year-old Sanu, there would’ve been an uproar. He had ankle surgery back in March, which creates some concern for his 2020 outlook, as same-calendar year surgery on feet/ankles for wide receivers is usually a bad thing. After having a great performance against the Ravens in Week 9 where he posted 10/81/1 on 14 targets, he failed to post more than 35 yards in any game the remainder of the season. Now he has to worry about last year’s first-round pick N’Keal Harry coming up and stealing his starting job in 2WR sets. It has been rumored that Sanu was the first one to work out with Cam Newton, and when you combine the fact that he’s a proven veteran, they likely have him start over Harry. Because of that, he should probably be rostered. It’s no longer a guarantee that Julian Edelman will be the quarterback’s go-to target.

Jakobi Meyers/Damiere Byrd: Meyers appears to be locked in as Julian Edelman‘s backup, though that role may not have as much reliability as in years past without Tom Brady. Still, Meyers proved he could play a bit when called upon, averaging 8.8 yards per target, though he failed to score a touchdown on 41 targets. Byrd is someone who’s played with Cam Newton before and would give the Patriots the field-stretching element that Phillip Dorsett brought to the lineup. Either way, it’s tough to see either of them being a reliable fantasy option with the team cutting back on pass attempts.

TEs
Ryan Izzo, Devin Asiasi, and Dalton Keene: The rookies (Asiasi and Keene) will be asked to play heavy snaps almost immediately after hearing about Matt LaCosse opting out. Izzo likely gets the nod as the starter with some experience, but he has just nine career targets to his name. Whether by design or talent on the field, Cam Newton targeted his tight ends quite a bit in Carolina, even when Ian Thomas had to step in for Greg Olsen. The Patriots obviously didn’t know they’d be signing Newton when they drafted Asiasi and Keene in the third round of the NFL Draft, though. My guess is that they knew they’d be going with a much more run-heavy based attack and that tight ends will be more of a staple in the gameplan. We search for volume at the tight end position, so if one of these tight ends separate themselves from the pack, we could find fantasy value. At the very least, we hope for a streamer. You have to understand that no Patriots tight end saw more than five targets in a game last year and Izzo was the only one who posted more than 7.3 half PPR points in a game, as his two receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown got him over the hump in Week 5. There’s a lot of changes that we don’t know about, so don’t draft any of them, but keep an eye on the snaps when the season begins.

New Orleans Saints

QBs
Drew Brees and Jameis Winston: The Saints went from running 67-69 plays per game on offense during the 2013-2016 seasons to running just 62-63 plays per game from 2017-2019. Why do you believe that is? For one, Brees is now 41 years old. Remember when quarterbacks retired before they were 40? Meanwhile, Brees continues to break his completion percentage records. But more importantly, the Saints defense is as good as it’s ever been under Sean Payton. This leads to fewer pass attempts. Look at these rushing attempts by the running backs by the years prior to 2019:

You think the fact that Alvin Kamara was dinged up last year didn’t play a role in that? It was also Latavius Murray‘s first year in the offense. Expect those numbers to get back to where they were pre-2019. Brees has now completed at least 70 percent of passes in four straight seasons (five total). How ridiculous is that? Just five other quarterbacks have hit that mark one time. He’s efficient, we get it. But how is he as a fantasy quarterback?

The numbers weren’t elite in 2017 and 2018 as the offense trended towards more of a run-based offense. In 2019, he threw a touchdown on 7.1 percent of his passes, a new career high. Knowing his career rate is 5.4 percent (5.6 percent in New Orleans), we should expect him to come closer to that range. He’s a fantasy quarterback who presents a sturdy floor, but his upside is dissipating as the offense throws the ball less and less. On top of that, Taysom Hill is there to steal the occasional touchdown. Brees is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, but you shouldn’t overpay for him in fantasy football in 2020. Winston is a high-upside backup who’d definitely be steamer-worthy if Brees were to miss any time.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: Apparently, Kamara tore something in his knee back in Week 6 of last year and also suffered a high-ankle sprain that led to him missing two games. So, when you see that he averaged 15 carries over the first five games and then just 10.7 for the remainder of the season (didn’t top 14 in a single game), it makes sense. That also explains why the Saints were a bit more pass-heavy when they were trending in the other direction. Here are their pass-to-run ratios over the last seven years under Sean Payton.

There was a clear trend as Drew Brees was aging, so it makes sense they’d go with a more run-heavy attack, especially when the defense is as good as it’s ever been. Kamara should return to his always efficient ways, though it’s hard to say he stopped while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. One of the craziest stats out there is that Kamara has totaled exactly 81 receptions in each of his three seasons, though his yards per catch has decreased every year. You’re getting at least 250 touches out of him with potential for 275-300, though you can’t say that’s guaranteed. Because of that, he’s just outside of the elite tier, but that doesn’t mean he can’t finish inside that tier if his efficiency gets back to 2017-2018 levels. Murray is one of my favorite picks to place on your bench. In fact, I’ve selected him two rounds ahead of his 10th round ADP because not only does he have elite handcuff upside (he was the RB1 while Kamara was out last year), but he also has weekly flex appeal if the team gets back to their pass-to-run ratio of 2017-2018. Did you know Murray had 23 carries in the red zone compared to 26 for Kamara? Or that he they both had 14 carries inside the 10-yard line? Don’t forget that Mark Ingram and Kamara BOTH finished as top-six running backs back in 2017. *Update* Kamara has reportedly sat out the last few Saints practices due to contract issues. It’s something to monitor as the days go on, though sources close to the situation say the two sides continue to close in on a deal. 

WRs
Michael Thomas: I’m not sure how many realize how rare Thomas’ season was in 2019. He saw 185 targets on a team that threw the ball just 581 times. That’s a ridiculous 31.8 percent target share. Just so you know, it’s rare for a receiver to see a 25 percent target share. I’ve already stated in the Drew Brees paragraph that I expect this offense to throw just a bit less in 2020. Initial projections have them around 560 pass attempts, so bringing that down to even a 28 percent target share would force Thomas to lose about 28 targets. You can see why a repeat of last year’s numbers are unlikely, especially when you factor in the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders as a rock-solid No. 2 receiver who’ll garner more targets than Ted Ginn and/or Tre’Quan Smith would’ve. Still, Thomas is my WR1 heading into the season, because outside of injury, he’s projected as my top receiver by a full 15 half-PPR points.

Emmanuel Sanders: In the 17 games that Sanders played last year (no bye week for him with the trade), he totaled more than 33 yards just eight times. In every one of those games, he saw at least six targets. That’s going to be difficult to come by during his time in New Orleans. Michael Thomas is going to get a massive chunk of the targets, and rightfully so. You don’t want to start taking targets away from Alvin Kamara, either. And judging how efficient Jared Cook was last year, you’d be hard pressed to take away any of his 65 targets from last year. So, where do the targets for Sanders come from? He’s now 33 years old and is clearly towards the end of his career. This was a better move from a football standpoint than a fantasy one. Yes, he’s getting a big upgrade at quarterback, but you need targets to produce. There was just one game last year where a Saints receiver not named Michael Thomas saw more than six targets. He’s a WR5 for me, which means I’ll have none at his current cost of WR44.

Tre’Quan Smith: It seems many have simply forgotten that Smith is still on the roster despite being a third-round pick by the Saints just two years ago. It’s fair considering he’s seen just 69 targets in that span, but what if Michael Thomas had to miss some time? Smith has averaged a ridiculously high 9.6 yards per target in his first two seasons and can be lined up all over the field. He’s also scored a touchdown every 6.9 targets (10 of them on 69 career targets). If you play in a dynasty league and Smith can be had on the cheap, make that move. It’s very possible he’d be the top receiver on the team if Thomas were held out, as he has experience in the offense and the Saints have every reason to want him to succeed. Keep him on waiver wire speed dial in redraft leagues.

TEs
Jared Cook and Adam Trautman: After not scoring more than six touchdowns in any of his first 10 years in the league, Cook burst onto the Saints last year, scoring nine touchdowns on just 65 targets in 14 games. Not just that, but he also averaged a ridiculous 16.4 yards per reception. No other tight end with at least 25 targets averaged more than 14.0 yards per reception. Let me be clear: He’s going to regress in both categories. He’s going to need more targets in order to live up to his TE9 price tag, and I don’t see how he gets them with Emmanuel Sanders added to the roster, as well as the projected decline in pass attempts. Even if he saw 70 targets, do you want to know just how hard it is to be a top-12 tight end with them? Over the last 10 years, there’ve been 120 tight ends who’ve finished top-12 (math). Just nine of them finished there with fewer than 72 targets. And, for what it’s worth, five of them finished TE11 or TE12. I have Cook as my No. 15 tight end because that’s the most likely scenario. We’ve already seen the best-case one. I dare you to think it happens in back-to-back years, especially when they drafted a tight end (Trautman) in the third round.

New York Giants

QB
Daniel Jones: Here’s a fun fact: Jones had two of the top-10 single game performances by quarterbacks in 2019. Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are the only two other quarterbacks who can say that. In fact, Jones had four games where he tallied 28-plus fantasy points, including three games over 30 points, something Philip Rivers has never done in his career. It wasn’t all pretty, though. Outside of those four explosion games, Jones was a train wreck, finishing with 14.7 or fewer fantasy points in the eight other games he started. His matchups where he exploded were against the Washington Football team, Bucs, Jets, and Lions. That’s a far cry from his start to the season in 2020 where he’ll open the season against the Steelers, Bears, and 49ers. You’re going to find him on waiver wires before long. In fact, he has one of the toughest schedules in the league, though the start is just brutal. What his 2019 season reminded me of was 2018 Mitch Trubisky. Don’t believe me?

Now to be fair, Jones is under a new head coach, though Jason Garrett may not be a better play caller than Pat Shurmur. On top of that, Jones never got the luxury to play with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton on the field at the same time. The upside is certainly there for Jones to take the leap into top-12 quarterback status, but the early schedule means you shouldn’t draft him in 1QB leagues, unless you plan on platooning quarterbacks. In 2QB formats, he’s the ideal solution, as he has job security, rushing upside, and his defense is horrendous.

RBs
Saquon Barkley, Dion Lewis, and Wayne Gallman: It was clear that Barkley tried coming back from his high-ankle sprain way too early last year and it impacted his numbers. Still, he posted RB1-type numbers in 46.2 percent of his games, which ranked eighth among running backs. The offensive system is changing and that’s probably a good thing, as Jason Garrett has very much been a one-back system type coach. We’ve watched him give Ezekiel Elliott 399 up to carries/targets and DeMarco Murray 457 carries/targets, so why should he be hesitant with a 23-year-old Barkley? Since 2014, every one of his offenses has finished top-10 in rushing yards and have finished top-five in yards per carry on 5-of-6 of them. I really don’t care too much about strength of schedule when it comes to running backs, but if you’re looking for a tie breaker, Barkley’s first three games are brutal. The Steelers didn’t allow any running back more than 17.5 PPR points last year, and just one to post more than 14.2 PPR points. The Bears are nasty up front when Akiem Hicks is healthy. The 49ers allowed just two running backs to crack 89 yards. Again, I don’t want to put too much stock into schedule because Barkley presents one-play upside every single week, but it’s just those little things that can separate RB1/RB2/RB3 in your rankings. If you want safety Ezekiel Elliott is probably the choice, but if you want upside, well, Barkley has it. It’s unclear how Lewis will factor in, but even in case of a Barkley injury, we’d likely see Gallman and Lewis split the workload. Neither is worth rostering.

WRs
Sterling Shepard: Remember when Shepard was considered a rising star who should shine in Odell Beckham’s absence? Well, he’s still the No. 1 wide receiver on this team, though drafters don’t seem to think so. He’s the WR46 in ADP, while Darius Slayton is the WR39, and Golden Tate is the WR54. Let’s take a look at their target totals from games Shepard played, shall we:

Does the ADP match the opportunity? Not really. You can argue that Slayton is only going to get better, but can’t we say the same about Shepard who just turned 27 years old? He didn’t see fewer than six targets in any game last year, and that’s despite being held out of practice constantly. I won’t say that the new offense can’t change things, because they will, but Shepard has been a proven performer in this league for four years now. If you want to hold off on drafting wide receivers while loading up on running backs, Shepard might be able to fill that role of low-upside WR3 who offers some target stability to your lineup.

Golden Tate: I remember when Tate was just a young guy in the league trying to find a role in the Seahawks offense. Here we are, now entering his 11th season at 32 years old. As you can see from the Shepard paragraph, Tate was semi-consistent with his targets, but you also have to factor in where he played on the field. Both Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram missed time throughout the year, which should’ve led to more targets for Tate. He had them most of the time, but even more importantly, he produced when he played. He produced WR3 or better numbers in 81.8 percent of his games last year. You know who did that more often than him? Michael Thomas. That’s it. It is a new offense and Barkley/Engram are healthy, so don’t expect that anymore, but understand that there’s likely a place for him in fantasy football, especially when you consider the state of the Giants defense that’ll be among the league’s worst. He’s not sexy and won’t finish as a top-24 receiver, but he can be a WR4 type that you plug in when you know the Giants will be throwing a ton.

Darius Slayton: Everyone wants the shiny new toy that just posted 740 yards and eight touchdowns on just 83 targets last year, as evidenced by his WR39 ADP. The issue is stability. With Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in the mix, it’s going to be very hard for Slayton to get consistent targets and be reliable in fantasy. Sure, he had multiple 120-yard, two-touchdown games last year, but you know what else he had… after those games? A game with three targets. Another game with two targets. Keep in mind that was while Evan Engram was out of the lineup. Slayton outproduced what everyone expected last year, being a fifth-round pick, but there’s a real chance he’s the No. 5 option in this passing attack when everyone is healthy. His average depth of target last year was 14.5 yards down the field, which ranked 10th in all of football. That further indicates a boom/bust player who’s being taken as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. If you want to believe in his ceiling, that’s fine, but don’t pay for it. He’s in the WR4 territory and not as safe as Shepard or Tate. If someone misses time, we saw what he can do if promoted.

TE
Evan Engram: Since coming into the league, Engram has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. Don’t believe me? I’ve tracked all tight ends since the start of the 2000 season and Engram has posted TE1-type numbers in 58.8 percent of his games. The only players with higher percentages over that time are Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and George Kittle. Engram hasn’t had the upside of someone like Jimmy Graham or Tony Gonzalez, but he’s been reliable. Now in an offense with more weapons than ever, will that continue? Even with most of them on the field last year, there was just one game where he saw less than seven targets (he still saw five). Do you know how many tight ends averaged more than even 6.5 targets last year? Six. Engram averaged 8.5 targets, so even if we knocked off a full 1.5 targets per game, he’d still be in elite territory. Injuries have added up, though, and he’s missed 13 games over the last two years, which is why he doesn’t belong in the elite conversation. You need a discount to take players like him. Fortunately, you’re getting that, as he’s the eighth tight end to come off draft boards in the seventh round. I have him as my TE6, though it’s probably unlikely he breaks into the top-three tight ends with all the mouths they have to feed in New York.