The Primer: Draft Day Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

Houston Texans

QB
Deshaun Watson: After finishing as the No. 4 quarterback in back-to-back seasons, many are starting to slide Watson down draft boards due to the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. We’ve never seen Watson without Hopkins, which certainly does raise some questions, but it also could provide an outlet for even more rushing yards for him. Watson maneuvers the pocket extremely well and buys himself time to find open receivers. Now without his safety blanket in Hopkins, we could see his rushing ceiling go up. Did you know he rushed for at least 32 yards in 9-of-15 games last year but never topped 47 rushing yards? That’s odd, to say the least. The Texans defense will be as bad as it’s ever been with Watson under center, which should mean even more dropbacks. The reason I’m still okay drafting Watson as a top-six quarterback: He’s only thrown 26 touchdown passes in each of the last two years and has still been a top-12 type quarterback in 63.2 percent of his career games, which is the second-highest rate since 2000, behind only Patrick Mahomes. For context, there were just seven quarterbacks who topped 50 percent last year alone. Watson may not have the passing ceiling without Hopkins, but I’m expecting his rushing totals to make up for some of that, leaving him in the top-six quarterbacks.

RBs
David Johnson and Duke Johnson: When many heard David Johnson was being traded to the Texans, we heard “jokes” that it was for DeAndre Hopkins. Well… you know how that ended. The Texans traded a lot for Johnson, which really doesn’t make much sense to me, and it’s not because I think he’s terrible or anything, but because he doesn’t fit what the Texans do on offense. They have traditionally given their running backs plenty of carries with minimal targets. Johnson hasn’t topped 3.7 yards per carry since back in 2016 and isn’t a great in-between the tackles runner. His best attribute is his receiving, and the Texans have not targeted their running backs more than 89 times in each of the last four years. We still have the same head coach and coordinator, so it’s not a change in offensive philosophy. We haven’t even talked about how Johnson looked towards the end of last year, as he looked like someone who was as stiff as a board and was closer to retirement than he was Pro Bowl. I’m just concerned about how he fits in this offense, but he’s still going to be given 16-plus touches a week, giving him value in fantasy. He’s not a high-upside guy, but if you’re looking for a low-end RB2, Johnson’s a guy who should deliver. Duke Johnson has been highly efficient all over the field for multiple teams now, yet no coaches have wanted to give him a bigger role. He’s yet to top 104 carries in a season. Now five years into his career, it’s probably unrealistic that he breaks out without David getting injured, but it’s definitely possible that Duke is the better running back at this stage in their careers. The Texans can’t do that though, not after they traded what they did for David. Because of that, Duke is an RB4 who should get a big opportunity if David really isn’t able to get back to full health.

WRs
Will Fuller: Even with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, Fuller has totaled 116 targets in 18 games over the last two years (6.4 per game), which is more than enough to do damage, especially when you’ve averaged 14.3 yards per reception over your career. Fuller’s volume will be there when he’s in the lineup, as Hopkins’ 150-plus targets have to go somewhere, and Fuller is the only one returning to the starting lineup who has any familiarity with Deshaun Watson. You must understand the nature of his game before drafting him though. He’s finished with fewer than 8.0 PPR points in 20-of-42 career games. He’s also finished with more than 20.0 PPR points in nine games. He’s been the definition of a boom-or-bust receiver, and one who’s been hurt a lot (missed 22 games over four years). Still, with Hopkins gone, Fuller should see a bump in targets and become a bit more stable. If he’s healthy, you should have zero issue plugging him in as your WR3 with top-10 upside. You’re getting a discount due to his health concerns.

Brandin Cooks: There have been just nine wide receivers who’ve finished as a top-24 receiver in at least four of the last five years. Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, and… Cooks. He’s done that with three different quarterbacks, and it’s hard to say Deshaun Watson is a downgrade. The lack of offseason might prove to be a lot for the chemistry between the two, but knowing Cooks has transitioned well in the past, it shouldn’t take too long. Concussions, on the other hand, are a big worrisome point. He only missed two games due to concussions in 2019, but they’re starting to add up. It also affected his performance (clearly) in a big way, as he never topped 46 yards in the six games following the injury. There’s going to be one of Will Fuller or Cooks who shines as a top-30 receiver with top-20 upside, yet neither are being drafted there. Knowing Cooks has been in this situation before, he gets a vote of confidence. If you land him as your WR4, you should be psyched. If Fuller misses any time, he’d be a must-play WR2 nearly every week.

Randall Cobb: Remember how many people were fading Cobb last year, saying he’d passed his prime and wanted nothing to do with him now that he was separated from Aaron Rodgers? He went on to post his most yardage since 2015. Granted, it took him 83 targets to get there, but he showed that he was capable. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been a quarterback to target his slot receivers a whole lot, but he’s never had a possession-style on like Cobb, and he’s never played without DeAndre Hopkins. Will things change? It’s certainly within the realm of possibilities. The issue is that Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills are also solid slot receivers who can fill that role, if needed. My issue with Cobb is… what’s the upside? Cole Beasley-type numbers from last year? He even finished as the No. 34 wide receiver, but was any fantasy owner excited to put him in their lineup? Maybe during bye weeks but that’s about it. He’s just a WR5-type option to me, and one who lacks upside.

Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee: These two are going to round out the depth chart behind the starters, though it’s tough to see either of them playing meaningful snaps without an injury ahead of them. Stills has the ability to play either slot or perimeter, though he’s much better in the slot. Coutee appears to be in Bill O’Brien’s doghouse, and it seems more likely he gets cut or traded than it does him making an impact on the Texans. Either way, neither of them are worth drafting without injury. Stills would be the first man up, no matter which spot were to open up, though.

TEs
Darren Fells and Jordan Akins: Not many realize the Texans tight ends saw a very respectable 19.1 percent target share in 2019, and that was with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster. Knowing the defense is likely taking another step back, we could see increased pass attempts, and a higher target total available. The issue is that Fells and Akins shared the role, though not many realize it was Akins who led them with 55 targets, 36 receptions, and 418 yards. The only thing Fells beat him in was touchdowns, as his seven trumped Akins’ two. Based on what we saw out of Akins last year, we should expect the third-year player to take a step forward in 2020, and with a little touchdown luck, he might be an underrated fantasy option. You don’t need to draft him in standard 1TE leagues, but you can consider him a streamer in good matchups if my projections hold true. As for Fells, he was extremely touchdown-or-bust, topping 27 yards just three times all season. Akins is the one I’d want if choosing between the two.

Indianapolis Colts

QB
Philip Rivers: There’s no masking it, Rivers was bad in 2019. He’s now 38 years old (will be 39 in December), which is the age quarterbacks used to hit their decline (before Brady and Brees came along). Have we reached the end with him? He played behind a bad offensive line last year, something he’s done through much of his career. In 2020, he’ll play behind a top-three offensive line in football. He has already played under Frank Reich back when he threw for 4,286 yards and 31 touchdowns, then a career-high 4,792 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2015. Does that make a difference knowing it was five years ago? Well, yeah, in a way. The good news is that he at least knows the basics of the offense, which is important this year when we’ve had practically no offseason. The bad news is that chemistry will have to be built on the fly, and it’s even harder when your top receiver (T.Y. Hilton) shows up to camp on the injured list. We did see Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer combine for 22 touchdown passes last year and Andrew Luck throw for 39 touchdowns in 2018, so it’s a good offense. If you want to select Rivers in a 2QB format, it could pay dividends, though his fantasy floor might be a bit lower than someone like Gardner Minshew who uses his legs. There are way too many variables to consider him anything more than a streamer in 1QB formats.

RBs
Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack, and Nyheim Hines: There are a lot of fantasy owners expecting Mack to retain a big role in the offense. I don’t think so. The knock on Taylor coming out of college was that he had tons of miles on his tires and that he may be a one-contract player. After 926 carries in just three years at Wisconsin, it’s hard to disagree with the way today’s NFL is moving (running backs don’t typically get big second contracts). You don’t take a player like that at the top of the second round and put him on the bench. Mack has not been a difference-maker. Taylor can and likely will be. He reminds me a lot of Nick Chubb, a player who’s averaged a massive 5.08 yards per carry over the first two years of his career. And that’s not playing behind the top-three offensive line that Taylor will be. There’s a chance that Mack sees 6-10 touches per game, but what’s the difference between him and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland with Chubb? That’s where Hines becomes involved, as some think he’ll be the “new Austin Ekeler” for Philip Rivers. For that to happen, he’d have to actually be on the field. Hines played 21.3 snaps per game last year, and that was with Mack missing two full games. Ekeler averaged 38.1 snaps per game last year. Even if Mack and Hines get 8-12 touches per game, Taylor is going to be the guy in this backfield. He’s a value at his current ADP and comes with top-10 running back upside. Mack is going to have a role to start the year, but will ultimately be Taylor’s handcuff who may be able to be played as a flex option during bye weeks. We’ve seen him as a starter in this offense, and that essentially means you can rely on him as an RB2 if Taylor were to miss time. I’m okay letting someone else snag Hines, as he’s a low-ceiling PPR option.

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: As a soon-to-be 31-year-old coming off an injury-plagued season and playing with a new quarterback, it’s not a good look to show up to camp with a non-football hamstring injury. There will be no preseason game action for him to build any chemistry with his new quarterback, so training camp was important. Hilton has never been a touchdown guy, as his career high is capped out at seven touchdowns. So, he’s reliant upon targets more than someone like D.K. Metcalf, who can score 10 touchdowns. Not only do we have to worry about Hilton’s health and age, but we also have to worry about his quarterback’s. Philip Rivers was not good last year and hasn’t traditionally thrown to guys like Hilton who are undersized and play on the perimeter. With so many variables and lack of true upside, I’m okay fading Hilton, especially at his current cost. If you’re able to land him as a backend WR3, I’m okay with the risk/reward, as there aren’t too many safe options in that range.

Parris Campbell: If T.Y. Hilton continues to miss time with his hamstring ailment, Campbell is a candidate for sleeper of the year. Going back through the years with Philip Rivers, there’s always been a target over the middle of the field. Whether it be Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, or Eddie Royal. Campbell is going to fill the slot role when T.Y. Hilton is healthy, which isn’t a bad thing. And if Hilton were to miss time, Campbell will move around the formation. Fortunately, he’s a bigger, stronger, and faster version of Hilton. We haven’t seen him play at the level Hilton has, but the Colts did draft him in the second round last year, highlighting their vision for him in this offense. While Hilton remains sidelined and rookie Michael Pittman tries to acclimate to the NFL, Campbell is a dark horse to lead this team in targets. Taking him in the double-digit rounds makes tons of sense, and best of all, you’ll find out what you have over the first couple weeks.

Michael Pittman: He’s someone who rapidly moved up draft boards as the NFL Draft approached. The Colts liked him so much that they selected him over Jonathan Taylor (who they then traded up to get a few picks later), so it’s clear they love Pittman. They did love Parris Campbell in last year’s draft, too, so we can’t go overboard. They said the plan is for Pittman to be the “X” receiver in the offense, which should present value with someone like Philip Rivers, who has zero issue throwing into tight coverage, especially when his receiver is 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. This is your reminder that Mike Williams is 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, while Vincent Jackson was 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds. These are wide receivers that Rivers targeted relentlessly. Mike Williams averaged just 2.0 yards of separation at target last year, the second-worst mark in football. Can Pittman make it into the starting lineup opening day? If so, Rivers could fall in love with his size, particularly in the red zone. He’s worth a pick with one of your last few selections, as he’s a dark horse to lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

Zach Pascal: The only two wide receivers who know the offense and have been able to put in time with their new quarterback are Pascal and Parris Campbell. Is it possible that Pascal is better than everyone thinks? Pascal averaged 8.4 yards per target last year while playing with Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer, which included five games of 72 yards or more. Knowing that T.Y. Hilton is dealing with a hamstring injury and that Michael Pittman is a rookie, it’s possible that Pascal is in the starting lineup. With so much uncertainty around the 2020 NFL season, Pascal could be an early-season waiver wire pickup if he plays 50-plus snaps in Week 1.

TEs
Jack Doyle and Trey Burton: We’ve watched the Colts tight end duo score plenty of fantasy points over the last two years under Frank Reich, right? They’ve combined for 186 receptions, 2,096 yards and 25 touchdowns in that time. Now, we get Philip Rivers, the guy who’s supported a top-11 tight end in all but one season in his long career, yet none of the Colts tight ends are being drafted in the top 18 at the position? The logical one is Doyle, who has now seen 105 targets in 22 games under Frank Reich. Burton is similar in the way that he’s more of a move tight end while Doyle is the traditional one who’ll be on the field most of the time. In a year where the Colts threw the ball just 513 times, it’s good to see Doyle with at least four targets in 12-of-15 games. If you want to wait at tight end and search for a potential every-week starter, Doyle makes some sense. Burton is a wildcard, as the fantasy industry was wild about him just two years ago. Between 2017 and 2018, he scored 11 touchdowns on 108 targets in offenses like Frank Reich’s. If you play in a 2TE format, Burton is a very interesting sleeper late in drafts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB
Gardner Minshew: It was quite miraculous what Minshew accomplished in 2020, especially when you factor in the lack of draft capital (sixth-round pick) they used to acquire him. Don’t understand just how good he was?

And keep in mind that Minshew didn’t even start two of the games included in that sample. Am I going to say that he should be drafted like Murray? No. However, he is being undervalued by those in 2QB leagues. The average quarterback rushes for a touchdown every 96.2 yards rushing. Had Minshew scored three rushing touchdowns (instead of the zero that he did) on 344 rushing yards, he would’ve finished as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback… in his rookie season… as a sixth-round pick. The Jaguars defense is as bad as ever, so we’ll see plenty of pass attempts out of him. It should also be noted that Jay Gruden (his new coordinator) has produced top-14 quarterbacks in 6-of-9 years, and the years he didn’t, there were injuries and/or multiple quarterbacks playing. Minshew has zero competition and can potentially be a Jameis Winston-lite in 2020. He’s the perfect target in 2QB leagues and will be streamable quite a bit in 1QB leagues.

RBs
Leonard Fournette, Chris Thompson, Ryquell Armstead, and Devine Ozigbo: Just how many fantasy points should Fournette have scored last year? Based on his touches and where they took place on the field, he should’ve finished as the No. 3 running back. Instead, he finished ninth. Many are using that as a reason to see him as a value in 2020, but you can’t rely on last year’s workload with a new play caller. Jay Gruden has never had a running back finish better than RB13, which doesn’t bode well for the running back who’s averaged 3.95 yards per carry over the course of his career while scoring every 42.1 touches. Then you add in the fact that the defense is surely going to take a step back with the losses of Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, and Marcell Dareus, and it’s very likely we see a lot less rushing attempts. Oh, you want targets? He’s going to lose many of them to Thompson, who Gruden brought with him from Washington. Thompson has averaged 5.4 targets per game in Gruden’s offense over the last three years, removing a big part of Fournette’s appeal. Landing Fournette as an RB2 with hope that he winds up on the better side of touchdown regression is fine, but don’t go into 2020 thinking you’re going to get the player who received all those touches in 2019. As for Thompson, he’s an ultra-low upside player in PPR formats, as he’ll chip in three or four receptions a week, but you’ll never feel great putting him in your lineup. Armstead is a handcuff to Fournette, though not a great one, as we’ve discussed the upside of this backfield. *Update* Fournette was cut by the Jaguars on August 31st, meaning Armstead is the one who’ll walk into the starting role. Unfortunately, we don’t know if they’ll turn into a three-headed monster with Armstead/Thompson/Ozigbo. For an offense that will have limited scoring opportunities and negative gamescripts quite often, the only one who has a stable role is Thompson, though his upside is severely capped. Armstead can be drafted as a pedestrian RB4, though he comes with high risk of being replaced. Thompson should be a James White-like RB4 in PPR formats. Ozigbo is a stash in deep leagues with the chance that he overtakes Armstead. 

WRs
D.J. Chark: There were flashes of what could be an alpha wide receiver in Chark last year, but there were also times where he disappeared. For example, he had six games of 15-plus fantasy points, but he also had eight games with less than nine fantasy points. Is it reasonable for him to grow as a player? Yes. Is there now a bit more competition for targets on the roster? Yes. With the shortened offseason, it will be difficult to learn a new playbook, especially for rookies like second-round pick Laviska Shenault. Because of that, Gardner Minshew will likely be looking Chark’s way a lot. With a schedule that starts with the Colts, Titans, Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, and Lions, Chark should have a monster first half of the fantasy season. There are much tougher matchups as the season goes on, however, but drafting Chark as a low-end WR2 with upside in the fifth round makes sense. But again, you may want to look at the possibility of trading him during his bye in Week 7.

Dede Westbrook: Of the top of your head, do you know how many receivers received 100-plus targets last year? 30. Westbrook was one of them. There’s a new offense being installed, but Westbrook should fit Jay Gruden’s offense quite well. Remember Jamison Crowder while in Washington? Has seasons with 103 and 99 targets, so it’s definitely in reach. We did hear that Gruden plans to use D.J. Chark in the slot a bit more, which tells us that Westbrook won’t be pigeonholed into the slot role that he’s been the last couple years. Westbrook has real speed on the perimeter and could be more than just a target-heavy slot receiver. We know that second-round pick Laviska Shenault had core muscle surgery this offseason which might put him behind the learning curve, and it’s not like the Jaguars have any allegiance to Chris Conley, so it’s possible that Westbrook is the 2020 version of Jamison Crowder in 2019 (finished as the WR31) with more vertical play upside. The best part is that you can grab him with one of your last picks and find out almost immediately.

Chris Conley and Laviska Shenault: It seems that Shenault was drafted to take Conley’s place, though it may not happen right away. Shenault had to miss the Combine due to core muscle surgery this offseason, so it’s unclear of how much he was able to work out with the team. The fact that there was virtually no offseason hurts rookie receivers coming into the league, even if Shenault is more talented than Conley. It is a situation to monitor, though, as Conley saw 90 targets last year. This receiver group as a whole saw 343 of them, which was the ninth most in football, so there’s certainly room for multiple fantasy options, especially when the defense is expected to be one of the worst in football. I do not believe either should be drafted immediately because we have little clue about which one is ahead of the other, and on top of that, they’ll be the third wide receiver behind D.J. Chark and Dede Westbrook.

TEs
Tyler Eifert and Josh Oliver: The move to acquire Eifert in free agency made sense with a young tight end like Oliver. It also made sense because Eifert actually played for Jay Gruden the first year of his career. Granted, he wasn’t a full-time player, but he knows the offense. Because of that, he’s likely to get the nod at first (if he can stay on the field). Still, it’s not a great role to have, as Gruden has only produced a top-12 tight end three times in his nine years of coaching. A large reason is because he often utilizes two tight end sets. Not many realize it but what if I told you there was just one year where Eifert totaled more than 445 yards? Or that there was just one year he scored more than five touchdowns? Knowing that Oliver was the Jaguars third-round pick just a year ago, they’ll want to get him snaps, too. This is a timeshare to avoid unless one comes out as the clear-cut full-time player. Even then, they’d likely be a streamer at best.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB
Patrick Mahomes: If you invested a first-round pick in Mahomes last year, you weren’t happy with the results. In games he started, he posted QB1-type numbers in just 57.1 percent of them. However, there were some factors to take into consideration. One, he was going to regress. Two, he suffered an injury during the Week 7 game against the Broncos that seemed to affect him throughout the remainder of the regular season. In the seven games following that injury, he threw for three touchdowns just once, while throwing for more than 283 yards just twice. Was that a sign of things to come? Probably not considering he threw for 901 yards and 10 touchdowns in three playoff games. You must ask yourself, “What’s the worst/best-case scenario with Mahomes?” prior to drafting him. Worst case was probably last year, where he was the No. 52 value-based player. That means if we’d drafted 2019 all over again, his value would’ve been correct as the 52nd player selected, so a fifth-round pick. Best case scenario is that he finishes as the No. 5 value-based player like he did in 2018. If you’re somewhere in the middle, he’s still worth a third-round pick with upside for more. Most of the time with Mahomes, it all just depends on your particular draft, as there are some who’ll see him go in the first round of their 1QB league. You’re baking in too much risk there. As a late-second, early-third round pick, you have some room for growth. Anything beyond that is just a steal. With the lack of offseason, it’ll affect defenses more than it will offenses, so we could see a record-breaking year for Mahomes.

RBs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DeAndre Washington, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson: There may be a lot of names listed here, but make no mistake about it – Edwards-Helaire is the one that matters. The Chiefs selected him in the first round of the NFL Draft after Patrick Mahomes said that’s who he wanted. After that, we heard Andy Reid say that Edwards-Helaire is better than Brian Westbrook on film. After hearing about Damien Williams opting out this season, Edwards-Helaire shot up draft boards, and rightfully so. Andy Reid has now coached for 20 years. Do you know how many times he didn’t have a top-18 fantasy running back? Five times. And keep in mind, injuries can really impact those numbers. Many will talk about “running backs don’t matter” and this and that, and while I don’t fully agree with that sentiment, they don’t matter as much as some think they do. Reid’s offense works, period. Edwards-Helaire was my top running back in this year’s class before he landed with the Chiefs because I thought he was the best fit for today’s NFL. Landing with Reid only heightened my excitement, as he can be 2020’s on-field version of Ray Rice, who was consistently a top-three fantasy running back. We haven’t seen Edwards-Helaire on an NFL field yet, and that has a lot of fantasy owners worried. But what if I told you he’d get 250 touches this year? Over the last seven years, first-round running backs have averaged 251 touches their rookie season with just one falling below 197 touches. The floor is there for Edwards-Helaire, while the ceiling is a top-five running back. I’d feel comfortable taking him with a pick in the right around No. 10 overall. It would seem that Washington is likely his handcuff and worth a late-round selection, though they’d likely mix in some Williams, as he’s been around a few years now. Thompson is not someone who I’d anticipate getting anything more than 5-8 touches per game no matter who missed time, as he’s just not viewed as that player. *Update* Williams is gaining steam as the backup to own in Kansas City.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: He’s a very good football player and one who can help you win fantasy weeks… but is he a No. 1 wide receiver on fantasy teams? In my Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, I highlighted the fact that he’s been a WR2 or better in just 44.1 percent of his career games, while someone like Julio Jones has posted WR1 numbers in 42.4 percent of his games. Hill averaged just 7.4 targets per game last year, a number that will need to come up for him to be a more consistent fantasy option. Can it happen? Absolutely. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not help that, nor will the supposed increase in Mecole Hardman offensive snaps. There were just two games in 2019 where Hill saw double-digit targets, which again, limits his consistency. By comparison, Davante Adams has averaged 11.0 targets per game over the last two years while Julio Jones saw 10-plus targets in 7-of-15 games in 2019. If you want to draft Hill as your WR1, I have no issue with it, but understand that you’ll need to balance your roster throughout the remainder of the draft. Robert Woods is someone that immediately comes to mind as consistent and reliable, and would make a perfect complement to someone like Hill.

Sammy Watkins: Does anyone else believe that Watkins may have played through injury in 2019? He hadn’t tallied anything less than 8.3 yards per target over the previous four years, and that’s despite some subpar quarterback talent in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Knowing that Watkins is the No. 2 option at wide receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense and that he’s going outside the top-50 wide receivers is bananas. Sure, he was bad in 2019, but he looked like the player we thought he’d be once they got to the playoffs, as he compiled 14 receptions for 288 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in their three playoff games. The Chiefs also had an opportunity to move on from Watkins this offseason, but they decided to keep him on the roster. He may not be an every-week option from the get-go, but knowing you have a player tied to Patrick Mahomes who saw six-plus targets in 10-of-17 games last year should carry some weight. Snagging him as a WR4/5 with upside makes too much sense, as we can’t let one inefficient year erase what he’s been throughout his career. There’s an avenue to him finishing as a WR3 without injury in front of him.

Mecole Hardman: I understand the want to draft Hardman, I really do. But has the hype train gotten out of control? He’s played four years of college and pro football, and here are his touch totals (most recent first): 30, 40, 33, and 0. He’s been highly efficient on almost all of those touches, but at some point, you have to ask yourself why he’s not getting more. Seriously, his efficiency last year was out of this world. Here are some stats for you from my 175 interesting facts from the 2019 football season article:

• Among wide receivers who’ve seen at least 30 targets, Mecole Hardman‘s 13.1 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
• Mecole Hardman averaged 2.77 PPR points per target in 2019, which ranked as the fourth-best mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.

Pretty nuts, right? I’m not arguing his efficiency at all. His performance last year was very Tyreek Hill-esque, and I could see him breaking out similarly to Hill, “if” Hill wasn’t on the field with him. It certainly helps that the Chiefs are taking him off special teams to focus on offense, as that’s the same thing they did with Hill a few years ago. Drafting him as a WR4/5 could be worth the reward but understand that he might be the No. 5 option in the passing game behind Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Sammy Watkins. For a team that hasn’t thrown the ball more than 583 times in Andy Reid’s entire time in Kansas City, that directly impacts Hardman, even if he is uber efficient. If he starts playing more snaps than Watkins, that’s when you’ll see me completely buy in.

Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle: These are the two primary players to watch should there be an injury on the wide receiver depth chart, though knowing Hardman will become a bigger part of the offense, it’s hard to see a situation where you’d be able to trust Robinson or Pringle. Again, if there were an injury, they’d be a decent hail mary option in what’s projected to be a high-scoring game, but nothing more.

TE
Travis Kelce: Talk about the model of consistency. Kelce now has four straight 1,000-yard, 83-plus catch seasons. Since Mahomes has taken control of the offense, Kelce has seen more volume than ever, racking up 286 targets over the last two years. He’s made them count, too. He’s posted TE1-type numbers in 28-of-32 games in that span, including top-five type numbers in 14 of them. George Kittle is the closest to him with 24 TE1-type games, while no other tight end has more than 19 of them. The downside is that the Chiefs have more weapons than ever with the addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the promotion of Mecole Hardman to a bigger role in the offense. Kelce is also going to be 31 years old this year, the age where tight ends typically start to lose that elite upside. Still, there’s no argument against Kelce as a top-two tight end. You can make the case that Kittle is starting to ascend in his career while Kelce will slowly begin a decline, but we haven’t seen it yet, and Kelce is tied to what most consider the best quarterback in the game. Knowing the weekly advantage Kelce/Kittle give you (again, Kelce produces TE1-type numbers 87.5 percent of the time with Mahomes), you should have no qualms about selecting him in the middle of the second round in your fantasy drafts.

Las Vegas Raiders

QBs
Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota: You may or not know that Mike Mayock had an affinity towards Mariota during the 2015 NFL Draft. He’s the GM of the Las Vegas Raiders, so when he got the opportunity to sign Mariota, he did. This is not great news for Carr, who has been solid, but not irreplaceable over the last two seasons under the Jon Gruden/Mayock regime. But instead of replacing him, they gave him competition, even if it’s one he should win fairly easily. He’s going to have a much better surrounding cast in 2020, as the Raiders drafted three skill-position players in the top three rounds of the draft, including wide receiver Henry Ruggs at No. 12 overall. The issue with liking Carr, however, is that he’s never going to be an every-week starting quarterback in 1QB leagues; we’ve learned that by now. He’s also not someone you can fully trust as your QB2 in Superflex/2QB formats now that he has actual competition on the roster. Here’s the best way for me to describe why he’s not worth much. His Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between chart highlights that he lacks upside, and doesn’t even present a decent floor (despite being a conservative quarterback). The “bust” column is fewer than 14.0 fantasy points:

RBs
Josh Jacobs, Jalen Richard, and Lynn Bowden: It was pretty shocking for me to learn that Jacobs is being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. Not because he’s not talented, but rather because nothing has changed for the better. Jacobs wasn’t involved in the passing game last year, and while most are dumbfounded as to why, what makes us assume that he’ll be used in that role this year, especially when the Raiders added Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden, and Jason Witten to the offense, as well as re-signing Jalen Richard? Jacobs is a talented receiver and one of the reasons I liked him coming out of school, but to expect a significant increase in targets while in the same offense, with the same head coach, and having increased competition makes little sense. I know Mike Mayock (the GM) said he’ll be used more in the passing game, but what does that mean? Another 5-10 targets on the season? That’s not enough to boost him into elite territory. On top of that, this offense has ranked 24th and 28th in scoring over the last two years under Jon Gruden/Greg Olson. Did you know that 85.4 percent of top-six running backs come from top-18 scoring offenses? You can learn more about that here. I don’t doubt that Jacobs can finish as an RB1, but by taking him as the 7th-9th running back off the board, you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Instead, I’d rather take a running back you know has a big role in the passing game and attached to a high-scoring offense (ahem, Kenyan Drake). We know who Richard is by now, even if there were to be an injury. He’s a desperation bye-week filler in PPR formats. Bowden could be interesting at some point but it’s difficult seeing how he gets a lot of touches with all the faces in the offense, especially when you consider that he’s a rookie with no preseason action. He’s a versatile weapon, but the Gruden/Olson duo has given us no indication they can properly use his skillset.

WRs
Henry Ruggs: It appears that the Raiders will start by using Ruggs in the slot, which makes more sense than most realize. He’s fast, sure. However, that’s not his best attribute. He’s slippery in the open field, takes great angles and utilizes his speed to get away from defenders. The best thing to do is get Ruggs the ball in his hands and let him create. Did you know that Jerry Jeudy had more than double the deep-ball receptions that Ruggs did while at Alabama? It’s because Ruggs was used a lot on screens and reverses. Putting him in the slot will manufacture touches to get the ball in his hands and let him create. He shouldn’t be pigeonholed to the slot, and I don’t think he will be, but playing there is not a bad thing. Did you know slot targets are worth 10.8 percent more than perimeter targets? Seriously, I’ve done the research (can be read here). On top of that, Derek Carr had the lowest average depth of target among quarterbacks last year, so should love someone like Ruggs who creates after the catch. When a team spends a No. 12 overall pick on someone, they’re going to find ways to get him the ball, so finding out the slot is his primary home makes you feel better about his potential in year one. I’d say his floor should be around 70 targets with a ceiling of 100 targets. He should also get some carries mixed in. Because of that combined with his one-play upside, he’s worth WR3 consideration. Fortunately, you don’t have to use a high pick on him, as he’s going around the 11th-12th round. Even if you reach a round or two, I don’t think you’ll be disappointed if you have him on your roster as a WR4 with tremendous weekly upside.

Tyrell Williams: We saw what he looked like in this offense last year, before the arrivals of Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden, and Jason Witten. He didn’t see more than seven targets in any one game. He failed to top 48 yards in 10-of-14 games. Sure, he was dealing with a foot injury, but the Raiders surely didn’t think it mattered all that much considering they used three picks inside the top three rounds for pass-catchers. Williams has always been volume dependent, and while many will argue that his injury hampered him last year, I’d argue that it didn’t affect him all that much. Here are his stats from each of the last three years:

As you can see, Williams is who he is at this point. Adding who they did won’t help his cause, either. The “upside” for Williams is WR3 territory, as we saw last year, but knowing his target floor and ceiling just took a major hit, he’s nothing more than a bench wide receiver with minimal upside. I’d rather take someone with more week-to-week potential. *Update* Williams tore his labrum but will reportedly try to play through the injury. It lowers him even more down my draft board to the point where he’ll be on none of my teams. 

Bryan Edwards: If you’re someone who listens to the news blurbs about players, you’d see that Derek Carr said Edwards reminds him of Davante Adams. Knowing they played together at California State, that’s quite the compliment. Still, by statements the team has made, it appears that Edwards is on the outside of the starting lineup looking in at the start of the year, though that shouldn’t last long. Here’s my final line from Edwards’ scouting report this offseason: If he gets an opportunity to play (was projected for 3rd/4th round), he can produce in the NFL. If they’re planning on using Henry Ruggs in the slot, Edwards would make a good complement to Tyrell Williams on the perimeter. That would leave Hunter Renfrow out of the equation, as he’s pretty much a slot-only receiver. So, again, if they’re being truthful about Ruggs in the slot, Edwards should get some playing time immediately in 3WR sets, making him an intriguing pick in one of the last few rounds. You need players like him on your roster who you can cut bait on almost immediately if he’s not getting playing time. *Update* Now that Tyrell Williams is playing through a labrum tear, it’s even more likely that Edwards passes him on the depth chart. He’s someone you can grab with your final pick to see what the snap counts look like in Week 1. 

Hunter Renfrow: If the Raiders are indeed using Henry Ruggs in the slot, you need to understand that Renfrow’s role is essentially gone, as he played 71 percent of his snaps in the slot last year. Yes, there are Renfrow supporters out there due to his high Yards per route run in 2019, but if he’s not running routes, it really doesn’t matter. Given there are much more talented options on the roster, he’s not someone you should roster. Even if Ruggs were to miss time, Renfrow would be a Cole Beasley-type option, which is hardly exciting.

TEs
Darren Waller and Jason Witten: I really didn’t want to put Witten’s name in this paragraph but did for those who didn’t know he was on the team. This is Waller’s role, and apparently Witten was brought on to be a “leader” in the locker room, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him have a Frank Gore-like effect and take away a few targets from Waller. The last three teams that Gruden has coached, each one has watched the tight ends accumulate at least 118 targets, with a massive total of 142 targets last year. I’d say it’s unlikely Waller sees the 117 targets he did in 2019, especially with the additions they’ve made at wide receiver, as well as the supposed increase in targets for Josh Jacobs. Still, we know after seeing Jared Cook see 101 targets in 2018 and Waller 117 targets in 2019 that this offense moves through the tight end quite a bit. Even lowering Waller to the 100-target mark, he’s worthy of a top-five tight end selection, as his touchdown total of three last year was somewhat fluky when you compare it to his 1,145 yards. Just so you know, his teammate Foster Moreau scored five touchdowns last year on just 25 targets and 174 yards, so the regression in targets can be made up in touchdowns. Waller is likely to lose some of his weekly floor, which was arguably the best among tight ends (only tight end who didn’t have a single game with less than 7.0 PPR points), he’s still a solid pick in the late-fifth, early-sixth round.

Los Angeles Chargers

QBs
Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: I was of the mindset that Taylor was going to start early in the year regardless, but after the announcement was made that there’d be no preseason games, it should be a foregone conclusion. To throw a rookie into that role with no in-game experience makes very little sense, and all the Chargers need is someone who can manage a game. Taylor already did this for the Bills a few years ago. Here are Taylor’s Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between numbers from his starting days:

You may not know it, but those are rather excellent top-12 percentages. To give you an idea of how good they are, there were just seven quarterbacks who topped 50 percent in 2019. We are, however, now three years removed from those games, Taylor is now 32 years old, and certainly less mobile than he was during those seasons. Because of that, you’ll see his fantasy floor dip down a bit, but he should have streamable weeks at the beginning of the season. He will play against the Bengals in Week 1, Panthers in Week 3, and Bucs in Week 4, so he could start out with some reasonable performances if you want to wait until the last round in your draft to take a quarterback. This will be a defensive-minded team in 2020, so don’t assume greatness from these two, but at their current costs, pairing them in a Superflex/2QB format to be your No. 2 quarterback would make some sense.

RBs
Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Joshua Kelley: I’m worried about Ekeler. He was awesome in 2019 and that needs to be acknowledged, but we also can’t pretend that we’re replaying the 2019 season again, right? Ekeler averaged 14.0 touches per game last year. Let that sink in for a second. That ranked 30th among running backs. Did you know that 73.5 percent of his production came through the air? No other running back who finished top-20 scored more than 48.5 percent of his production through the air. So, when you are moving from Philip Rivers, who totaled 591 pass attempts last year, to a quarterback that’s never thrown the ball more than 437 times, you’d better be factoring that in, big time. For all the hate on Rivers, he’s thrown at least 26 touchdown passes in 11 of the last 12 years. That’s a big piece of the guaranteed production that is now gone and it must be factored into Ekeler’s price. The good news for Ekeler is that he’s been hitting the weight room during quarantine and has put on a considerable amount of muscle. That could enable him to see an increased workload on the ground, though the Chargers offensive line isn’t what you’d describe as great. Carries are also worth much less than targets, so losing expected fantasy points and building in expected regression, you have to understand the risk associated with him. I’m fine with him as an RB2, but not an RB1. Jackson and Kelley figure to fight for the No. 2 running back slot which has certainly had value over the last few years, though Melvin Gordon is more talented than both Jackson and Kelley. The combination of Gordon and Ekeler averaged 31 touches per game last year, so there is a lot to go around, though Tyrod Taylor will surely steal some opportunity. The question is whether those touches that Jackson and Kelley get come in the red zone, when it matters most. They’re both likely touchdown-dependent options, though Jackson would be my choice to get the bigger opportunity from the start. He’s averaged 5.14 yards per carry through his first two seasons in the league.

WRs
Keenan Allen: Did you know Allen hasn’t topped six touchdowns in any of the last six seasons? That’s despite Philip Rivers throwing at least 28 touchdowns in five of them. He’s a phenomenal route runner, but not the go-up-and-get-it receiver you’ll fall in love with in the red zone. The move to Tyrod Taylor is likely going to be a tough one for Allen, as Taylor will lack pass attempts in comparison to Rivers. Even if we were to say the Chargers threw the ball 500 times (Taylor’s career-high is 437 attempts), that’s still a massive decrease from the 597 times they threw the ball in 2019. Taking away 97-plus targets will be felt throughout the depth chart, especially when you don’t score a lot of touchdowns. It does help that the Chargers receiving corps is very top heavy with Allen and Mike Williams, though. Still, it’s likely there’ll be less than 250 targets between the Chargers receivers, so Allen isn’t getting close to the 149 targets he got in 2019. Realistically, he’s likely to be in the 110-120 target range. That’s still enough for low-end WR2/high-end WR3 numbers, but don’t expect the same Allen whose been relied upon as a borderline WR1 anymore. *Update* With the injury to Mike Williams, Allen is likely back in 120-plus target territory, meaning he can be drafted as a middling WR2. 

Mike Williams: Not many realize that Williams ranked eighth among wide receivers in air yards last year. That’s incredible opportunity. Unfortunately, he averaged just 2.0 yards of separation when targeted, which was the lowest number in football. Williams needs a quarterback who’s willing to throw it into tight coverage to succeed. We haven’t seen Tyrod Taylor play in a little bit, but the last season he was a starter was in 2017. He threw into tight coverage just 15.2 percent of the time, which was the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. In 2016, Taylor’s mark was just 14.2 percent, the third-lowest mark in the league. Philip Rivers was at a much higher 17.1 percent last year. Williams is much more reliant on touchdowns to produce than Keenan Allen, which is why you should probably be fading the receiver who struggles with separation, especially now that he’s playing with a quarterback who’s not aggressive. Rivers has thrown 83 touchdowns in the 48 games since Williams came into the league. Meanwhile, Taylor has thrown 33 touchdown passes in his last 32 starts. Williams should be considered a WR4, at best. *Update* Williams hurt his shoulder during training camp and is expected to miss a few weeks. He’s just a bench stash at this point.

Joe Reed, K.J. Hill, and Darius Jennings: It’s kind of insane to me during today’s NFL that the Chargers are deciding to move forward with these receivers competing to be their No. 3 receiver. They did something similar last year, as the receivers behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams totaled just 43 targets combined. Knowing they’ll be a run-first team with a top-tier defense, there’s no reason to expect any sort of breakout from this group.

TEs
Hunter Henry: Knowing how little the Chargers use their receivers behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, you’d think you’d get excited about Henry, but it’s tough to say he’ll get anywhere close to hitting value as the sixth tight end off the board. Henry has still yet to top 76 targets in a season, and that’s despite Philip Rivers throwing the ball near 600 times each season. Henry has missed time, which hasn’t helped, but still, you want very little risk when spending a 5th/6th round pick on a tight end. The Chargers will lose some volume in the passing game year and will almost certainly have less touchdowns to be distributed in the passing game. If there’s one positive from Tyrod Taylor taking over, it’s that Charles Clay averaged 79.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 546 yards, and 3.0 touchdowns during Taylor’s starter years in Buffalo. Henry is likely a better player than Clay was, but again, those numbers don’t come close to hitting top-six tight end territory. Henry can finish as a TE1, but you shouldn’t be spending a pick anywhere close to where he’s being drafted.