Our writers are here with their thoughts regarding which first-round slots are the best in 2020 fantasy football drafts.
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Q: Which draft slots are the best for 2020 fantasy football redraft leagues?
Top-3 Pick
Leading into the 2020 fantasy season, I generally believe the top pick is the premier slot, while two and three are basically equal as the second-best option. Almost every year, the top-three picks are generally the best since you can get a first-tier player while generally having a distinct advantage at every turn over the later picks (combining a top-three pick with two of Austin Ekeler, Mike Evans, or Allen Robinson can be deadly). This is especially true in the 2020 fantasy season, where there is generally a clear divide between the top three players, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott, and the rest of the first round. In fact, McCaffrey may be the safest RB and number-one pick we’ve seen in years, as he plays virtually every snap of every game while offering elite rushing and receiving prowess. He’s simply been incredibly consistent every year of his NFL career. The ability to draft a guaranteed stud coming off a historic fantasy season cannot be overstated. However, if you consider McCaffrey, Barkley, and/or Elliott all within the same tier, then slots two or three may be better since you, theoretically, get a better returning selection. Additionally, you may be able to better strategize and adapt based on your opponents’ drafts and tendencies. Also, there is hardly a better feeling than sniping a player that you reasonably know a leaguemate will draft right before she or he gets the chance.
– Jared Lese (@JaredL_FF)
Pick 10, 11, or 12
I’m a proponent of building a balanced fantasy roster, which is a big reason why I like picking in the back-end of drafts. In a lot of cases, you’ll be able to land a low-end RB1 with high upside like Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, or Josh Jacobs in Round 1. Then, you can pair him with a top-tier wide receiver like Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Golladay, or maybe Davante Adams. In all three of my mock draft articles, I ended up with some combination of these players when picking 10th, 11th, and 12th. Each of these guys has the potential to finish as top-five players at their respective positions. Picking in the top three gives you the advantage of landing either Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Ezekiel Elliott. But I don’t think there’s that much of a drop-off between them and the tailbacks available later in Round 1. And while having a large gap between picks can be challenging, it pushes me to be more aggressive when trying to land my top targets. Some people despise picking late in drafts, but this year I’m A-OK with it.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)
Top-5 Pick
As the commissioner in my home league of unlovable drunks, I have to deal with a lot of fantasy football inquiries. We drink. We debate. We do all the “basic bro” things you’d expect from a middling group of middle-aged dolts. So when we learned where we’d pick in the 2020 fantasy draft, some people were upset. But why? Does it matter? Well, yeah, sort of. In this small sample size to you (big sample size to us), we learned that first-round draft picks didn’t always correlate to championships. However, top-five picks proved to be quite rewarding. When I scoured the Internet Era stats of our league (since 2005), here’s what I found: Since 2005, the person with the first overall pick won the league two times; the person with the second overall pick won the league zero times; the person with the third overall pick won the league three times; the person with the fourth overall pick won the league one time; and the person with the fifth overall pick won the league once. All told, in 14 seasons from 2005 to 2019, a top-five-overall draft picker won the league eight out of 14 times. That’s a 57% championship rate. To be fair, four of those victories came from 2005 to 2009, and our league has since become rife with parity. But in the last decade, a top-five picker won the league four times. When you consider that typical 12-person leagues offer just an 8.3% chance of winning at the outset, that 40% rate is not bad! Take your top-five pick and celebrate. You’re halfway to the ‘ship.
– Jim Colombo (@WideRightNBlue)
First Overall Pick
In half-PPR leagues, drafting Christian McCaffery is a cheat code. According to FantasyPros scoring from 2019, McCaffery outscored the next closest running back (Derrick Henry) by six points per game. He was seven points per game better than Michael Thomas, who was the WR1. The idea of getting a guy who can produce at that level with such remarkable consistency gives you a major advantage over the rest of your league, but what makes picking first overall so mouth-watering is the opportunity to pair McCaffery with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kenny Golladay, George Kittle, or Mike Evans at the Rounds 2/3 turn. You have a chance to build a monster foundation of floor and ceiling out of this group, giving you the opportunity to shoot for upside in the middle rounds. Give me the trio of McCaffery, Kittle, and Evans to start my team any day.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)
Depends on the Situation
A fantasy football snake draft is set up so that there is no advantage to having the first pick and no disadvantage to picking last. However, draft positions do favor certain fantasy managers and are a disadvantage to certain others. When drafting at the top, the picks make themselves. Christian McCaffrey should be the first overall pick. Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley, not necessarily in that order, are likely to be the second and third selections. When picking early, you can just select the relatively sure thing at running back and go along your way. However, some experienced fantasy players prefer the zero running back strategy, which is hard to do with the draft’s first pick. Even if you want to take Michael Thomas and his monster reception numbers, it’s tough to justify drafting him over McCaffrey. Picking later in the draft makes it much easier to accomplish with the elite running backs gone and the great receivers still available.
From my experience, I can win leagues with any pick in the draft, and I can lose leagues with the first overall pick. You rarely win a league by just hitting on the early picks without building your bench for the bye weeks later in the draft. Rounds 6-10 and the waiver wire have as much impact on playoff berths as the first overall pick. While it is always great to hit on that first-rounder, and having one of the first selections makes that easier, building a solid fantasy roster is about more than having a high pick in the opening round.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Derek makes some great points in that draft spots don’t always matter as much as the fantasy manager’s preferences and abilities. Last year, I won my main league with the third pick. I was labeled “crazy” for taking Travis Kelce because I thought the TE position was terrible and I wanted to roll the dice and dominate the position. Three years ago, I won my main league with the last pick, but that was fine with me because I knew I could get two of my favorite players with picks 1.12 and 2.1. My overall preference is to be on the ends so that I can grab two players at once. I like looking ahead and playing chess as opposed to checkers. I might take a guy a little higher than their ADP might suggest, but I tend to take players I like who fit into my overall roster build. I like to have depth of talent (especially at RB) and so each year, my preference might change based upon my position tiers. I stick to my tiers and place more value on them than I do the ADP or popular opinion. All of this said, I suggest not worrying too much about the spot because your preparation and research should lead you to be able to adjust, pivot, and handle whatever comes your way during the draft.
– Jamy Bechler (@WinningDFS101)
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