It’s that wonderful time of year — or so we once thought. With the autumn breeze slowly but surely making its way, mixed in with the unexpected drama of the NBA and  NHL playoffs in mid-August, we find ourselves in a strange new fantasy football environment.

While living in an ever-present state of unknown, the fantasy community continues to cross their collective fingers in hopes of just enough regular-season are played to crown our annual fantasy football champions. As football junkies, let’s be sure to do our part (#MaskUp) so that we can enjoy the luxury of NFL football this fall. With that said, here are five running backs that I have finishing either over or under for their projections in 2020.

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Over

Mark Ingram (BAL)
FantasyPros projections: 169.6 carries, 815.3 yards, 6.3 rushing TDs, 24.9 receptions, 210.4 receiving yards, 1.9 receiving touchdowns, 1.4 FL

The flat out disrespect that Mark Ingram receives is outrageous. Last month, I wrote about how Ingram is the most undervalued player by the expert consensus.

Because of that, I won’t regurgitate myself here. I will, however, be sure to add one noteworthy piece of information supporting my theory that Ingram will remain the clear-cut leader of the Ravens’ backfield this season: back in 2013, then-San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman (the current Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator) gave Frank Gore 292 touches. The following season, after the 49ers spent a second-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft on Ohio State running back Carlos Hyde, Roman gave the 31-year old Gore 266 touches. That’s a whopping nine percent drop from the previous year’s workload.

There’s no way that Roman suddenly changes course and takes a noticeable amount of work away from the Ravens’ biggest leader on offense.

I’ll do you one further. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Ingram sees his touches increase from 2019, as I doubt the Ravens will find themselves playing in as many blowouts this season.

Rob’s Projections: 221 touches (23 catches), 1,196 scrimmage yards, 12 total touchdowns

Raheem Mostert (SF)
FantasyPros Projections: 169 carries, 827.9 rushing yards, 7.1 rushing TDs, 18.7 receptions, 155.6 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD, 1.7 FL

Earlier this month, I made my case for Raheem “The Dream” Mostert as my must-have player for the 2020 season. Yes, the stigma is still alive and well regarding Kyle Shanahan’s handling of his running backs throughout the course of a game and/or season. But is it warranted, really? As we already know, football enthusiasts tend to be prisoners of the moment. Folks have clearly already chosen to forget that Shanahan has force-fed bell-cow running backs such as Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman, and/or Carlos Hyde for three different franchises since 2012. Over the course of five seasons, those three running backs averaged 310 touches per year between them as Shanahan’s backfield leader.

 
So yes, while Shanahan has juggled a handful of running backs over the past two seasons, there’s still enough data at our disposal that supports the outrageous theory that Mostert might even surpass 200 carries this season (am I doing this right, fantasy industry?).

This newfound Shanahan Stigma is the primary reason why Mostert is the single greatest value in fantasy football drafts this August. We all saw last season just how perfect Mostert is playing in Shanahan’s patented inside/outside zone running scheme.

Don’t be yet another prisoner of the moment. Mostert will blow these projections out of the water as he finishes the year as an RB1. Also, let me remind you that the San Francisco 49ers also traded for the best left tackle (Trent Williams) on the planet over the offseason.

Rob’s Projections: 230 touches (17 receptions), 1,334 scrimmage yards, 13 total touchdowns

Jordan Howard (MIA)
FantasyPros Projections: 171.7 carries, 685 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing touchdowns, 17.6 receptions, 126.1 receiving yards, 0.6 receiving touchdowns, 1.0 FL

Right before the Fourth of July, I wrote about how Jordan Howard needed to be granted a second chance by fantasy football flunkies in 2020. Playing as the early-down, majority workload back in Chan Gailey’s legendary rushing scheme should provide the 25-year-old running back with a legitimate bounce-back season. Must I remind you that Howard is only two years older than Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn?

As I mentioned in my July piece, Gailey’s offenses, historically, have been near the top of the league regarding rushing volume and yardage. Considering two of Gailey’s last three teams won six or fewer games, the Miami Dolphins’ attraction to Gailey makes sense.

In 2012, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for 2,357 scrimmage yards. In 2016, Bilal Powell and Matt Forte combined for 2,186 scrimmage yards. Those two ball clubs combined to win 11 games. With Gailey’s track record of running back success, albeit for struggling football teams, I’m putting Howard down for another four-figure yardage season in black ink.

Rob’s Projections: 229 touches (35 receptions), 1,008 scrimmage yards, 8 total touchdowns

Under

Dalvin Cook (MIN)
FantasyPros’ Projection: 255.8 carries, 1,122.2 rushing yards, 9.8 rushing touchdowns, 60.4 receptions, 531 receiving yards, 1.8 receiving touchdowns, 2.3 FL

Back in July, I wrote about how Dalvin Cook is, without a sliver a doubt, the most overvalued player in the entire fantasy football landscape. Whether it’s due to Minnesota’s devastating inability to run the ball effectively in Cook’s final eight games (including postseason) of 2019, or his well-documented fragility, the former Florida State Seminole is going to be a no for me, dog. Speaking of Cook’s shortcomings to close out 2019, see for yourself below at just how abysmal the Vikings’ rushing attack was from Week 9 onward with Cook in the lineup.

Yikes, those numbers are tough to look at. Especially out of your (likely) sixth or seventh overall pick. With the Vikings already well on their way to running their injury-prone ball carrier into the ground, it’d be a catastrophic mistake for Vikings GM Rick Spielman to sign him to an illustrious contract extension. While Spielman certainly isn’t to be trusted on his end, nor should Cook be trusted as a first-round cornerstone of your fictional football roster.

Simply say thanks, but no thanks, to Cook in 2020.

Rob’s Projections: (10 games) 228 touches (33 receptions), 1,163 scrimmage yards, 8 total touchdowns

Melvin Gordon (DEN)
FantasyPros Projections: 200.0 carries, 807.2, 7.0 rushing touchdowns, 41.2 receptions, 329.1 receiving yards, 1.7 receiving touchdowns. 1.3 FL

A few weeks back, I wrote about how Melvin Gordon is number one on my “Sell, Sell, Sell” list for dynasty formats. After taking a peek at the projections that FantasyPros put together for Gordon, I can’t help but laugh. For whatever reason, the folks compiling these projections are under the impression that Gordon is about to embark on rarified air.

As I discussed in the aforementioned piece from mid-July, despite playing five seasons in the NFL, Gordon has topped 3.9 yards per carry in just one season. On top of that, Gordon has eclipsed 200 carries in just two seasons. It’s important to note because FantasyPros is throwing history out the window with their projections for the Wisconsin product.

Since Gordon averages nearly three missed games per year, it’s fair to assume that the newly christened Denver Bronco will watch a few ball games in street clothes from the sidelines this year. He should also watch Phillip Lindsay become the third teammate (Danny Woodhead and Austin Ekeler) to outproduce him in his own backfield.

Rob’s Projections: (13 games) 190 touches (36 receptions), 798 scrimmage yards, 7 total touchdowns

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.