Round 1 Value Picks and Busts (2020 Fantasy Football)

Every round of a fantasy football draft brings with it decisions to be made, pitfalls to avoid and potential league-winning upside if you make the right picks. And our analysts are here to make sure you’re well prepared for every round of your draft; here are their thoughts on what to do with that all-important first-round pick (rounds based on consensus ADP in 1/2 PPR scoring formats as of Aug. 3):

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Q1. Who has the greatest value potential in Round 1?

Value isn’t a word that’s used in the first round, but getting Davante Adams towards the end of the first round feels like stealing. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 11.0 targets per game, and that’s despite Aaron Rodgers not dropping back to pass a whole lot. The Packers added no one who’ll be playing in 2020 to contend for targets with Adams. Did you know he’s posted 16-plus PPR points in 23 of his last 27 games? Ridiculous.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

This is going to sound strange, but I believe that the player with the greatest value potential in Round 1 is being drafted at No. 2 overall. If there’s any player that can usurp CMC for the title of RB1, it’s Saquon Barkley. Barkley struggled with injuries last season, which left many to doubt and question his overall talent ability. However, we saw Barkley get fully healthy at the end of 2019 and he returned to being a top-tier fantasy option. In fact, from Weeks 13-17 (when Barkley was back to full strength) we saw Barkley outscore CMC in Half PPR formats. If you’re drafting at No. 2 overall, don’t be disappointed if you’re able to scoop up the dynamic RB.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

Dalvin Cook would probably be the fourth or fifth pick absent the “holdout” concerns, so the fact that he’s going seventh off the board makes him the greatest value potential. Gary Kubiak will likely continue to employ the run-blocking scheme that fit Cook so well last year, and he’s got legitimate overall No. 1 potential if he stays healthy. Considering that the penalties for holding out are incredibly steep under the new CBA, Cook will almost certainly be in Minnesota for the whole year and just needs to stay healthy to be a value.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Q2. Who has the greatest bust potential in Round 1?

I’ll go with DeAndre Hopkins here. It’s not that I don’t love Hopkins as a player – I do. It’s that he’s changing offenses and quarterbacks in a year where there was no offseason. The lack of chemistry could be something that affects his overall numbers, as well as knowing he’ll see less than the 150-plus targets he has in each of the last five years. He just doesn’t present enough stability for a first-round pick.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Tyreek Hill at the WR3 spot is certainly surprising, but the general public wants the WR1 for Patrick Mahomes. Hill certainly has the potential to single-handedly win you a week, but he also has a tendency to disappear at times and deliver you performances outside the top-12 at the WR position. He’s certainly a talented player and he’s an incredible asset to own for fantasy football, but you’re paying up for him this season and there’s a very narrow path for him to finish as the WR3 when the season wraps up. I’d prefer to draft him just a couple WR spots later.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

Dalvin Cook has both the greatest value and bust potential of Round 1 picks. We know about the injury history – Cook has played in just 29 out of a possible 48 games in his young career. But he’s also unhappy with his contract. Although the new CBA makes it almost impossible for Cook to hold out entirely, there’s always a chance that his discontent might lead him to protect himself more than he otherwise would with minor issues and miss further games. Either way, Cook has an enormously high ceiling, but a very low floor because of injuries and his contract situation.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

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