Positive & Negative Regression Candidates: Week 4 (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

When I sit down to write this article every week, I’m not always sure who I’m going to write about. Sometimes I have a few names in mind and see if the numbers confirm what I was already thinking. Other times I dive into the data and see what comes out.

Usually, it’s a bit of a mix of those two approaches. And that’s definitely the case this week. I had a few names in mind when I sat down and decided to keep two and replace two because the metrics told me there were better options.

The first name that I wrote down earlier this week is David Peterson, and what I found confirmed what I was already thinking: it’s time to sell. So, let’s start with Peterson as our first negative regression candidate.

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Negative Regression Candidates

David Peterson (SP - NYM)
In a year where the Mets lost Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman to an opt-out and have dealt with injuries to Michael Wacha and Jacob deGrom, New York is running low on positive feels in their rotation. David Peterson might be the only exception. Through four starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts over 21 2/3 innings.

There is a lot to like so far. And if you look at his advanced metrics, you’ll see that he has been succeeding in limiting hard contact and there are reasons to believe his early success hasn’t been a fluke. But there are some red flags and indicators of regression.

While his xERA of 3.69 isn’t such a far cry from his ERA, it comes with a 4.01 FIP and 4.87 xFIP. This isn’t the end of the world and is to be expected. But there are some obvious reasons that the stats aren’t huge fans of Peterson’s.

He has been limiting the damage and the hard contact so far, but he hasn’t been missing bats. His K rate and Whiff rate are both well below league average, and his fastball velocity is mediocre. And his fastball and curveball spin rates are among the worst in the league.

Is he going to fall off the mound and get rocked every start from here on out? No, probably not. But pitchers who struggle to miss bats usually run into trouble eventually, and Peterson won’t be an exception. Soft contact is contributing to a .250 BABIP and 8.7% HR/FB, but it will only carry him so far. Regression is coming.

Donovan Solano (2B – SF)
You’re never going to believe this, but the 32-year-old journeyman who is currently batting .433 is due for some regression. I thought that might go without saying, but even MLB.com got in on the action this weekend, posting a story about Solano as a dark horse candidate to bat .400 in the shortened season.

Solano is a nice story, but he’s also riding a .500 BABIP to go with below-average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, and Barrel %. Sure, his xBA is through the roof and indicates at least some of his batting average might be sustainable. His strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers are similarly positive.

But don’t expect more than a decent batting average from Solano. If an owner in your league is desperate for average and willing to make you an offer for Solano, it’s time to listen.

Positive Regression Candidates

Matt Olson (1B – OAK)
Is it fair to include a batter with a proven track record and eight home runs already in the positive regression column? Maybe not, but he is also rocking a .158 batting average and .786 OPS. I teased his Statcast page on Twitter over the weekend:

This player is batting .158 pic.twitter.com/fzBZRNYINY

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) August 16, 2020

Excuse me while I drool over that Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel %. Oh, and Olson has a minuscule .085 BABIP, which almost feels impossible. His walks are way up, while his strikeouts are down. His swing rates are down overall, but he is specifically swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone and swinging more at pitches in the zone.

Most fantasy owners are going to remain patient with Olson, especially because of the home runs. But if someone in your league is frustrated enough with Olson’s average in a shortened season to consider making a move, it’s time to call that person and see if he’s available.

Mike Minor (SP – TEX)
I’ll admit that I struggled with this one. Minor is not without some red flags, but there are also reasons to believe he is due for some positive regression. For starters, his ERA-to-FIP is 1.74 (5.49-3.75). That’s the fifth biggest difference between ERA and FIP in all of baseball among qualifying starters (Matthew Boyd‘s 4.05 is easily on top, but that’s because his ERA is 10.24 and his FIP is 6.19, so does that really count?).

Anyway, Minor’s xFIP isn’t as favorable but is still a positive 0.70 at 4.79, and his xERA splits the difference at 4.04 for a difference of 1.45. Opposing batters are hitting just .221 against him, and his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG are all at or above league average. His Exit Velocity numbers are in the 75th percentile, and his spin rates are excellent.

But as I said, there are some concerns. His fastball velocity is down more than a full MPH, his walks are up, his .268 BABIP doesn’t indicate a lot of bad luck, and his hard contact numbers are way up. Despite that, his HR/FB numbers are down, but that could be in part because of baseballs that appear to be slightly less juiced in 2020.

He is also using his slider more and his curveball less, and the early results have been mixed. It’s possible he reverses that decision. His fastball and changeup usage numbers are also slightly down.

Now, is Minor going to wake up tomorrow and be a Cy Young candidate? No, probably not. But you know his fantasy owners are frustrated with a 5.49 ERA and 0-3 record in a shortened season, and he is probably available for cheap right now. And for a guy who struck out 200 batters last season and should put up significantly better numbers down the stretch than he has through his first four starts, it’s worth asking what the price is.

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