Welcome back to another edition of NBA DFS strategy! On today’s Saturday slate, we have five games beginning with Blazers/Clippers at 1PM and culminating in an exciting matchup of Bucks/MAvs at 8:30PM. If you’re looking for value plays to save some dough and pricey studs to spend the extra cash on, we’ve got you covered. Injuries and inactives are even more important to monitor in the bubble, so be aware of that when setting lineups and when reading this article. Thanks for joining me – let’s get to it!
Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Value Plays
Point Guard
Welcome back to another edition of NBA DFS strategy! On today’s Saturday slate, we have five games beginning with Blazers/Clippers at 1PM and culminating in an exciting matchup of Bucks/MAvs at 8:30PM. If you’re looking for value plays to save some dough and pricey studs to spend the extra cash on, we’ve got you covered. Injuries and inactives are even more important to monitor in the bubble, so be aware of that when setting lineups and when reading this article. Thanks for joining me – let’s get to it!
Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Value Plays
Point Guard
- Payne has been surprisingly effect and involved in the bubble thus far, averaging just over 23 FD points per game in just under 20 minutes of action per tilt in four contests. Spend down here, and pay up elsewhere.
- With T.J. Warren and Myles Turner questionable today, Brogdon could be asked to take on the scoring burden against a wiped-out Lakers team that has no incentive to play hard. Minutes and a friendly matchup? Check and check.
Three more
Emmanuel Mudiay drew the start Friday and went for 24.7 FD points in 28 minutes of action. He saw plenty of run due to the depleted lineup in the first game of a back-to-back, but there’s a real chance Mike Conley (knee) sits out Saturday as well. At minimum salary, he could be a useful money-saver. Monitor Conley’s health before tipoff.
Jamal Murray is questionable Saturday, and it’s very possible he’ll be on a minutes limit if he takes the court. Monte Morris has scored at least 30 FD points in two of his last three contests while playing minutes in the mid-30s. At $4.4K, Morris should be a favorable option if Murray is out or limited.
If Goran Dragic suits up, he’s a near must-play option for the depleted Heat.
Shooting Guard
- Herro has been solid over his last three games, averaging over 26 minutes per contest while putting up just over 25 FD points per tilt in that span. With Jimmy Buckets sidelined and Goran Dragic questionable, Herro is a nice value play against Phoenix.
- It might seem odd to call a $7.7K guy a value, but George is still dangerously underpriced. Injuries behind him and load management not in the bubble vernacular, he’s seen plenty of usage and been highly productive. Over his last four contests, he’s averaged over 40 FD points and has a great chance to do so again Saturday against Portland’s sub-par defense.
- “Lemon Pepper Lou” has only played 20 minutes in each of his first two contests back in the bubble, but with Patrick Beverley (groin) still out Saturday, Williams should see plenty of action against a generous defense. I’ll take a chance on Williams in tournaments over more popular plays like Jordan Clarkson or Gary Trent.
- It wouldn’t be crazy to stack Herro and Robinson, as they are the last men standing in a decimated frontcourt if Goran Dragic is sidelined.
Small Forward
- As I mentioned above with Paul George, higher-priced players can still be values, and that’s what we have with Leonard. For a guy priced at $8.5K, he’s got a ceiling well over 50 points and has scored no less than 40.9 FD points in all four of his bubble games thus far.
- Melo makes the list here, as the physically-fit forward averaged nearly 30 FD points in his first three bubble contests before posting a dud Thursday against Denver. Recency bias may leave him under-owned, and the upside is certainly there for a guy averaging almost 35 minutes.
Power Forward
- LeBron James and Anthony Davis won’t be playing a lot of minutes for the rest of the regular season, and with injuries mounting, Kuz should see a large role moving forward. In his start against Houston on Thursday, he went for 42.5 FD points in just 29 minutes of play.
- Porter has rightfully seen his price skyrocket to $7.8K after averaging north of 50 FD points for three straight games. He’ll be a popular play on the slate, but it’s wise to go chalk here given the hot hand and the dearth of quality options at PF for this slate.
- Adebayo is another salary-friendly option here given his ceiling, and he should be one of the focal points of the offense with Jimmy Butler and others on the sideline.
Center
- Just like George and Leonard, Zubac is still underpriced despite FD point totals of 29.3, 31.4, and 43.5 over his last three games respectively.
- Myles Turner is the pick if he plays, but he’s questionable and Domantis Sabonis is out, leaving Bitadze at minimum salary facing a Lakers squad that should be all too eager to rest its stars in preparation for the playoffs. This is a tournament play to be sure, and you should also check out the Pacers’ starting lineup before making final DFS decisions. JaKarr Sampson is in play if he gets the nod at center.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Jusuf Nurkic (POR): Nurkic has been on a tear since returning in the bubble, and without Hassan Whiteside (hip) coming off the bench, Nurkic should see additional minutes and usage in this one.
- Luka Doncic (DAL): It’s hard to pass on a guy averaging almost 58 FD points across four bubble games.
- T.J. Warren (IND) $7,800: Over 50 FD points per game over his last four. Keep riding the hot hand, especially at this price point. DISCLAIMER: Warren is questionable, so check out injury news throughout the day.
- Paul George (LAC) $7,7oo: As mentioned above, PG13 is a steal at this price, so he’s well worth the salary.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $9,700: Portland needs every win it can get, and Dame should be highly motivated for a matchup with one of the league’s best. He’s averaged over 55 FD points per game in the bubble.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,400: With the No. 1 seed locked up, the Lakers won’t risk trotting out Davis for too much action. He’s played fewer than 30 minutes in two straight since clinching the top spot in the West, averaging less than 30 FD points in that time.
- LeBron James (LAL) $10,000: See Anthony Davis above.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,000: He hasn’t had trouble hitting value in three of four contests, but at $11K and with plenty of high-ceiling options in the mid-tier of pricing, I’ll fade Greek Freak here in favor of cheaper alternatives.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $9,000: He’s been a bit of a mixed bag so far in Orlando, and at $9K, he’s a little overpriced given the cheaper options at center.
- Devin Booker (PHO) $8,000: Booker has been rolling, but this is about the other players on the slate. There’s a better stud option at SG (Luka) and plenty of value plays at a lower cost. I’ll look elsewhere here.
Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.
Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.
