The theme for this Wednesday is pitching. There are aces up and down the entire slate tonight, so you don’t necessarily have to pay up for it. As a result of all this great pitching, you’ll have to really nail your bats to cash out. Some positions that typically have value plays (like third base) are facing tough pitching, so be prepared to pay up at scarce positions. Without further ado, happy Casey Mize day!

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Pitcher

 
Paddack has struggled out of the gate, pitching to a 4.91 ERA and striking out less than a hitter per inning. There’s also a ton of blue ink on his Baseball Savant page, meaning that his advanced stats are generally below average. But fear not, because he gets a great opponent to turn his fortunes around. The Rangers are the worst hitting team in the league over the last two weeks, a whopping 28% below league average.

Urias was able to stretch out in his last start, pitching over six innings. While he hasn’t been striking out a lot of batters out, the Mariners’ hitters have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against lefties over the last two weeks. Further, they have a 60 wRC+ against them in the same timeframe.

Sandoval gets to pitch in one of the best pitcher’s parks on Wednesday, and the Giants are 11% below the league average in hitting over the last two weeks. With so much good pitching on the docket, Sandoval figures to be lowly rostered. This helps you boost up your bats on a night where runs will be at a premium.

Catcher/ First Base

 
Murphy has outperformed his underlying metrics to date, but getting him at this low of a price at Coors is highway robbery. He hits lefties and righties essentially equally, so don’t worry about lefty Framber Valdez being on the bump. This matchup has cash game written all over it.

Sano mashes lefties, which has been detailed in this space before. He will face the oft-injured Brett Anderson at home, meaning that he has a chance at a double-dong game.

Walker hit 11% better than league-average against lefties last year, and probable A’s starter Jesus Luzardo struggled in his last start. On top of that, the Diamondbacks just put up nine runs over two innings against Frankie Montas on Tuesday. Even before that breakout, they ranked top-five in hitting over the past two weeks.

Second Base

 
La Stella figures to bat in the top third of the order on Wednesday, and Johnny Cueto has been very hittable this year. The Angels as a team are in the top third in hitting the past two weeks, meaning that La Stella could see great opportunities.

You might be surprised to see Berti here, but he is 6-for-15 lifetime against Jacob deGrom with a 1.000 OPS. He will be minimally rostered, making him an intriguing play.

Profar had a dismal start to the season, but he has been heating up over the past week, hitting .280 and slugging .440 in that timeframe. He gets to match up against Lance Lynn, which appears suboptimal on the surface. However, he has three hits in nine at-bats against him. Not a large sample size, but second base is so barren that Profar could produce surplus at the position.

Third Base

 
Anderson is one of the few hitters to have deGrom’s number, slashing .296/.367/.482 against him over 27 at-bats. He is having another quiet but fine season, sporting a 131 wRC+. A mini-stack of Berti and Anderson will be minimally rostered and could produce great results.

Escobar is heating up over his last seven games, hitting .273/.393/.455. He has done well in his career against lefties, and getting a piece of this Diamondbacks lineup right now is a big deal.

Shortstop

 
Fletcher has been on a tear to open 2020, hitting .309/.380/.468. He shouldn’t have much of an issue hitting Cueto.

Semien and Torres are both in deep slumps but are priced low enough to the point of punting on the position with one of them and hoping you run into something. All of the typical value plays below $3K are going up against dominant pitching, so recommending others is a fruitless exercise.

Outfield

 
Pederson mashes righties the minute he steps out of bed and hits Taijuan Walker well in particular. Pederson is 6-for-12 lifetime against him with two doubles. Most Dodgers’ stacks have to have Pederson in the lineup.

Tauchman has been hitting in the middle of the lineup when he plays and went on a hot streak over the weekend. Tyler Glasnow has been struggling mightily this season, and there’s a chance that he completely blows up on Wednesday. If he does blow up, Tauchman should be right in the middle of it.

Santana crushes Steven Brault, the probable Pirates’ starter. He’s got two bombs against Brault (four hits total) in nine at-bats. Combine that with the guy mentioned below, and you just found yourself a lowly rostered mini-stack.

Reyes does not have much experience against Brault, but he mashes lefties 45% better than the league average for his career. He’s also the third hottest hitter over the last two weeks. Rostering Sano and Reyes may be all you need on Wednesday.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

Aaron Civale (SP – CLE), $9,500: Civale faces the third-worst team in hitting this week, and he has been a monster this year. He’s done that by doing the aspects of pitching that he controls better: walking hitters less, and striking them out more instead.

Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM), $10,700: deGrom has been his typical self, and faces a bottom-five offense.

Trevor Story (SS – COL), $4,500: For his career, Story hits .312/.385/.633 against lefties. He also plays in the best hitter’s park on the planet.

Juan Soto (OF – WAS), $4,800: He’s the second hottest hitter in baseball over the last two weeks, and he gets to face the inexperienced Kyle Wright.

Carlos Correa (SS – HOU), $3,600: Correa is also in Coors on Wednesday, and also gets to face an inexperienced young pitcher in Ryan Castellani. Castellani’s strikeout rate should come back to earth, and he had a significant home run problem in the minors last year.

5 Notable Players to Fade

Tyler Glasnow (SP – TAM), $8,000: Glasnow is having problems being a two-pitch pitcher, and the Yankees figure to feast on that. I’m going to let him work out his issues from afar.

Casey Mize (SP – DET), $6,600: This won’t be popular, but Mize may not pitch more than a few innings in his debut. Plus, even if he does well, he figures to be rostered more since he is making his MLB debut.

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU), $3,900: Altuve hasn’t looked like himself this year, and it’s best to avoid him in favor of better bats at Coors.

Max Kepler (OF – MIN), $3,700: Kepler is 24% below league-average against lefties in his career, so fade him to stack righties in that lineup.

George Springer (OF – HOU), $4,100: Springer was scratched from the lineup on Tuesday due to a wrist injury, and wrist injuries have not been kind this year. Just ask Franchy Cordero or Tommy Pham. Even if it’s not serious, there is concern that if he does start, he could be pulled early.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and personal fantasy blog,  and follow him @cmaiorano3.