DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (8/22)

As with all slates since the tip-off of the NBA playoffs, the main slate is a four-gamer that begins at 1:00 p.m. EST and rides through 8:30 p.m. EST. Today’s schedule is an interesting one that features a fair amount of star power with some interesting value options to boot. The Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic contest as well as the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers’ contest lead the slate in implied totals.

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Point Guard

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Goran Dragic has put together two strong back-to-back performances, reaching value in both playoff games against the Indiana Pacers. Dragic’s price is slowly increasing, but he should be able to reach value as he’s topped 32-plus minutes in both playoff games and has contributed 20-plus points in addition to some rebounding and assists. Markelle Fultz‘s addition to the starting lineup has helped his point-totals tremendously — Fultz has totaled 27.5 and 24 DraftKings points in his first two contests. While Fultz could stand to play a few extra minutes, he’s a cheap value option at this spot if you elect to pay up elsewhere.

Shooting Guard

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Schroder is beginning to slowly get back to form, improving his 11 points from his first game back to 25.75 points in his second contest since his return to the bubble. Schroder’s played 32 minutes in both games and has jacked up 12 field goal attempts in both, too. His workload is very enticing, particularly at his reduced price tag. The Trail Blazers will need to rely on a scoring punch from somebody not named Damian Lillard. While Jusuf Nurkic may be next in the pecking order, McCollum has the potential and ability to go off on any given night. Expect some positive shooting regression, and at his current workload, that could spell a big performance.

Small Forward

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Danuel House is one of the more consistent DFS options on a nightly basis. With Russell Westbrook sidelined, it only makes sense to target the Houston Rockets players, even outside of James Harden. House has played in 29 and 38 minutes in the first two games and totaled 18.25 and 36.25 DraftKings points in those contests. Kyle Kuzma is a strong bench option, but he’ll need to be more than that with his current price tag — it’s dropped a good $700 from the last contest, and with good reason — Kuzma only attempted six shots and totaled only 12.75 DraftKings points. Kuzma would be a fun contrarian option for those expecting a scoring punch from the Lakers’ sixth-man.

Power Forward

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Danilo Gallinari‘s game is quietly very solid, and that is evidenced by his 39.75 and 24.25-point totals in his first two playoff games this season. Gallo has played 33 minutes in both games and has a strong offensive output, which helps clear the way for a potentially big night at any given time. If you’re looking to pay down at the four-spot, James Ennis would be a prime option — he’s hovered around value in every single game since the bubble kicked off. Ennis doesn’t offer much of a ceiling, but his floor is nearly value.

Center

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The center spot is an interesting one tonight. Myles Turner has yet to really hit his stride and dominate, but his last game ended in 39 DraftKings points in 33 minutes of playing time. Turner’s price dropped $100 from the last game, but he’s always a risky option, particularly if you consider his .875% shooting percentage in the last contest. Steven Adams continues to battle against the center-less Rockets, and he’s done well in the first two contests — Adams has totaled 36 and 26.25 DraftKings points. Expect Adams to continue eating against the much smaller P.J. Tucker.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• LeBron James (LAL) $10,600: Bron is coming off a putrid 29-point performance, but that makes him a great contrarian option on a slate filled with star-studded power. Bron is listed as probable for today’s game, but all indications point to him going.
• Damian Lillard (POR) $10,800: Dame is coming off his first stinker in a long time (23.75 points). His dislocated finger won’t stop him from playing, but it may hinder his ability to play at full force. We’ll find out how much/little it bugs him tonight.
• Jimmy Butler (MIA) $7,600: Butler’s price tag is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. While his point-totals have been somewhat inconsistent, he’s proven to be a quality option throughout the first two playoff games and is opposing the fifth-worst defense in the bubble in the Pacers.
• James Harden (HOU) $11,600: Harden’s shooting performance (5-16) was disappointing in his latest game, yet he still totaled 49.75 DraftKings points. With Westbrook sidelined, Harden’s potential and ceiling is astronomical.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,000: Giannis is currently listed as probable for today’s game, but the expectation is that he’ll play. He’s shot only decently and he’s shot poorly from the 3-point line, yet it doesn’t matter one bit — Giannis is simply too good and has only be slowed by foul trouble through two contests.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Chris Paul (OKC) $7,800: CP3 has had one amazing and one subpar contest through two playoff games this season. It’s tough to know what you’re getting, but the Rockets are the eighth-ranked defense in the bubble. Expect them to throw a ton at CP3 throughout the rest of the series.
• Khris Middleton (MIL) $7,900: Middleton has not performed well in the playoffs, yet. His 30.5 and 17.25-point totals aren’t blowing anyone away, and it may not get much better against the tough defense of the Orlando Magic. There is some potential for positive shooting regression, though.
• Gary Trent (POR) $4,800: The young player has struggled since the playoffs began, which was a complete flip from his previous bubble performances. It’s best to avoid Trent until he proves he’s worthy of being in your starting lineup.
• Carmelo Anthony (POR) $5,600: Carmelo figures much more heavily into the Trail Blazers’ offensive plans, but is coming off a two-point game. Yes, two real-life and two DraftKings points. It was not pretty.
• Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,300: Lopez isn’t the focal point of his team’s offense, but he still gets his opportunities, mostly from the 3-point line. Expect some shooting regression, as Lopez isn’t likely to shoot 8-12 from the field and 50% from 3, again.

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