DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Wednesday (8/5)

I’m not particularly enamored with the bargain arms, and a number of stud hitters are priced through the stratosphere tonight. The notable fades are jam-packed with elite talent that’s simply too expensive. Additionally, the value hitting options feature a couple of expensive hitters, but relative to the salaries of the other top bats on this slate, they’re actually bargains.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

 
As you can see from the matchup grades and risk levels, this is a group of risky hurlers mostly in bad matchups. What each pitcher brings to the table, however, is bat-missing stuff when they’re on their game. In 2019, Gibson threw two pitches with a swinging-strike percentage north of 20% using his changeup to generate a 20.2 SwStr% and his slider to coax a 26.7 SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. Even his curve served as a solid swing-and-miss offering with a 14.7 SwStr%.

Richards pitched just 8.2 innings in three starts late last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, and he’s returned to throwing a high-octane arsenal with further refinement from his bumpy return last year. He’s generated a superb 17.2 SwSt% in his two starts spanning 10.2 innings, and he’s ridden his elite swinging-strike percentage to a gaudy 27.9 K%.

Gray has failed to rack up many strikeouts in his two turns this year, but it’s probably too early to sound any alarm bells. Coors Field will bring even the best pitchers to their knees on occasion, but save for his 8.27 ERA in 20.2 innings at Coors Field as a rookie in 2015, Gray’s been quite good — especially grading on a curve for the hitter-friendly park factors. In 298.2 innings pitched at home since 2016, Gray’s twirled a 4.07 ERA and 3.36 xFIP with a 24.5 K%. His matchup is favorable enough to roll the dice on him in his challenging home park.

Catcher/First Base

 
Moran is the man to highlight in this table. His ho-hum 109 wRC+ in 853 plate appearances against righties since 2017 doesn’t do much to get the juices flowing, but it looks like Moran might have reinvented himself again. He worked to elevate the ball more back in 2017 in Houston’s organization, and this year he’s sacrificing some contact to mash. He’s belted five homers with a .432 ISO in 40 plate appearances this season, and his 17.1% barrels per plate appearance ranks as the fifth-highest among qualified hitters this year, per Baseball Savant.

Second Base

 
Usually, a player approaching nearly $5,000 in salary wouldn’t get the nod as a value, but 29 hitters have a salary of $5,000 or more on tonight’s slate. With that in mind, Albies is a value relative to the high pricing on hitters tonight. In 423 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show in 2017, he’s amassed a .379 OBP, .236 ISO, and 151 wRC+. Having said that, he’s also dealing with a wrist injury that hasn’t kept him out of the lineup the last two games, but there’s reportedly discussion about whether he should be placed on the IL. If he hits the IL, obviously he’s not a consideration. But if he’s in the lineup and avoids the IL, his upside puts him in the mix — even at less than 100%.

If you’re looking to save salary at the keystone position, Arraez is the better option of the other two second basemen in the table above. He has a cushy matchup tonight against Trevor Williams. Pittsburgh’s starter has yielded a .386 wOBA to 293 left-handed batters faced since last year.

Third Base

 
Bryant’s the other nearly-$5,000 player to make it into the value tables. He’s listed at third base, but he’s also outfield eligible. He’ll draw rookie southpaw Kris Bubic tonight, and this will be just the rookie’s second start after making the leap all the way up from High-A. Simply put, Bubic’s never faced anyone like Bryant. In 392 plate appearances against lefties since 2017, Bryant has ripped off a .434 OBP, .292 ISO, and 170 wRC+.

Moncada’s also an excellent value tonight. Further, if you opt to use Bryant in the outfield, you can use the two third basemen for the Chicago MLB teams together. Moncada’s the owner of a .351 OBP, .217 ISO, and 128 wRC+ against righties since 2017. The switch-hitter will be treated to a park factor of 1.101 for homers at Miller Park as a left-handed batter tonight, according to the MLB Park Factors landing page.

Shortstop

 
Seager is scalding baseballs. His 22.7% barrels per plate appearance is far and away the highest mark among qualified hitters this year, and his fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity of 101.1 mph is tied for the seventh-highest mark, too. He’s a great play tonight, though, I slightly prefer Correa due to Correa’s superior matchup.

Robbie Ray’s ceded a .341 wOBA to right-handed batters since last year, and Correa’s equipped to add to Ray’s struggles with right-handed batters as evidenced by his .422 OBP, .180 ISO, and 155 wRC+ since 2017. He’s also coming off of belting a homer last night.

Outfield

 
Gurriel Jr. can really put a charge into the ball when facing southpaws, and he draws one tonight whose swing-strike percentage has been in a decline every season since debuting in 2017. After posting a 11.1 SwStr% in 2017, Sean Newcomb’s swinging-strike percentage dipped below double digits last year at 9.2%, and it’s at 7.4% through two starts this year. Allowing contact to Gurriel Jr. is playing with fire as he has a .283 ISO against lefties in his big-league career that began in 2018.

The Angels face lefty Marco Gonzales tonight. The crafty southpaw has actually held right-handed batters to a .296 wOBA since last year, hence the two-star matchup rating for Upton and Adell, but he’s also struck out only 18.3% of the righties he’s faced. He’s also allowed a higher fly-ball percentage (39.6%) than ground-ball percentage (38.2%) to righties. Serving up fly balls to a power-packed duo of Upton and Adell is dangerous, making both speculative power options on the cheap tonight.

4 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Yu Darvish, CHC ($10,400): Darvish is the most expensive starting pitcher tonight, and for good reason in a plus matchup. He and the Cubs are -220 favorites, per bettingpros consensus line, and Darvish has the requisite strikeout upside needed for a five-figure hurler with a 30.0 K% through two starts this year after a 31.3 K% last year.
• Jose Altuve, HOU ($5,700): Listing Altuve here is a bit of a hedge with the late-night news of Albies possibly landing on the IL. If that happens, Altuve becomes more enticing facing a southpaw for the second night in a row.
• Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,300): The Astros blasted the Diamondbacks last night and see another southpaw tonight, and Bregman’s a beast against lefties with a 178 wRC+ against them since 2017.
• Ronald Acuna, ATL ($5,100): Acuna’s a bit cheaper than the forthcoming elite players listed as fades but boasts massive upside with a .368 OBP, .266 ISO, and 137 wRC+ against lefties in his career.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Mike Trout, LAA ($6,200): Trout wasted no time getting back in the swing of things after leaving the team for the birth of his child, returning to smack a homer last night. However, $6,200 is too pricey in a homer-suppressing park and a mediocre matchup.
• Charlie Blackmon, COL ($6,000): The Coors Field salary bump prices me out on Blackmon and the forthcoming Arenado. They have the potential to make me look foolish for suggesting fading them, but there are enough bargains with upside to make stacking or grabbing a mix of value plays elsewhere in order to pony up for pitching my preferred roster building method tonight.
• Nolan Arenado, COL ($5,600):
• Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($5,400): Rizzo being priced as the most expensive first baseman against in a lefty-lefty matchup is baffling. Pass.
• Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,200): Ditto for Yelich in a lefty-lefty matchup, and even more so when considering his slow start.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.