DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Friday (8/7)

Provided nothing goes haywire today, we will have a 13 game DraftKings slate tonight. While a number that big can be a bit overwhelming for DFS, it sure is nice having all these teams playing after the bumpy ride we’ve been on through the first two weeks of the season.

Now let’s get to parsing through this slate and finding some plays!

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Value Pitchers to Target

Me calling Civale at $9,300 a “value” play should probably bring the pitchfork mob to my front door, but hear me out for a second. The guy has a 1.08 WHIP and a 37.5% strikeout rate this year. Me citing a 12 inning sample as evidence should probably light the mob’s torches, but keep listening. Civale has a 37% Called Strike + Whiff rate this year, that’s one of the best marks in baseball. His success hasn’t been attributed to just one pitch either – he has a 47% CSW, a 39% rate on his change-up, and a 37% rate on his cutter. Those three pitches have been elite for him this year. These are real signs of a huge breakout, and I think the party keeps rolling against the White Sox.

Canning’s price is a bit more than you should feel comfortable with, but he has had a nice start to his second year, posting a 27% strikeout rate with a 9% walk rate in two starts against tough offenses (Athletics and Astros). Now he gets a more favorable matchup against the Rangers, who can whiff with the best of them. I like Canning’s strikeout floor even though it comes with a bit more walk and home run allowed risk than the other guys around that price tag.

Kikuchi has been anything but a good pitcher in his MLB career, with a horrible 17% strikeout rate and a 5.03 xFIP. However, he gets what might be the best matchup in baseball, facing the Rockies the day after they fly away from Coors Field. Kikuchi also has recorded 13 strikeouts in 9.2 innings this year. He has a 40% CSW rate on his slider and a 35% rate on his cutter so far, very strong numbers that may be suggesting Kikuchi is developing in his second season. The walks are still a problem and they put him in the “high risk” category, but at $5,000 you can take on some risk.

Catcher/First Base

I really like the Mariners tonight, so I’ll go to Nola at catcher for $3,000 if I have that much money to spend at the position, that’s all I’m going to say about the stupid catcher position!

Two prices stand out quite a bit for me at first base. First is Santana, who faces a pitcher in Cease who has given up 2.7 homers per nine innings to lefties in his short career to go with a .400 wOBA and a 1.71 WHIP. I am not recommending a full Indians stack given Cease’s talented arm, but Santana is a nice floor bet with his high walk rate and how well lefties seem to see the ball from Cease.

Cronenworth is the super punt at first base for $2,700. I keep walking down small sample street here, but Cronenworth has a .483 xwOBA in his 23 big league plate appearances. You can do much worse for that little cash.

Second Base

Second base is a complete and utter disaster for how big this slate is. There is nobody that stands out to me as being a great play at this stage. That made me pull Muncy from the “Studs” portion of the article into the “Values” section. When there is this little to go after at a position, even the most expensive guys become values. Samardzija has given up a .313 wOBA with 1.7 HR/9 allowed to lefties over the last two seasons, and Muncy should be hitting at the top of the highest projected scoring offense of the night – that’s a decent spot to spend some money on.

If you don’t want to go to Muncy, Hernandez is a decent mid-range option. I typically like to avoid the guys that don’t have significant pop in their bats just because that makes success a multi-event proposition for them. By that I mean, Hernandez probably isn’t going to pay off in one swing of the bat, he’ll rely on scoring a couple of runs or a multi-hit game or a steal to really pay off. That said, we’ve already talked about Cease’s struggles against lefties – so he’s considerable.

I’ve been following Eddy Alvarez’s career since like seven minutes ago and man he looks great tonight. I am just kidding, he has five career MLB at-bats with zero hits and two strikeouts. He did slash .323/.407/.570 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in AAA in 2019 though, so there is something in that bat. This position is so gross tonight I might just scroll to the bottom and click on Alvarez’s name if he’s in the lineup.

Third Base

The Reds have a surprisingly low run projection from Vegas, but Suarez in Miller Park against a lefty is pretty juicy at $4,200. It gives even better when we look at the BvP numbers, just kidding – don’t ever look at BvP numbers – they are useless.

Seager is off to a rousing start in 2020 with a .300 batting average, a .379 on-base percentage, and a .520 slugging percentage after parking two homers in his first 14 games. He also has two steals, which probably means nothing moving forward but hey – there it is. Senzatela is one of the more contact-friendly pitchers in the league (13.5% strikeout rate since 2019), and Seager is far too cheap here.

If you want to bet on someone stealing a base tonight, I present you with Tommy Edman. I think Jon Lester would rather have COVID-19 than try to prevent runners from stealing on him. On average, there is a base stolen every 76 plate appearances in Major League Baseball. When Jon Lester is pitching (over the last three seasons), that number is 50. Edman is very cheap for a guy with that contact and steal ability – if he’s hitting near the top of the lineup he will project very, very well tonight.

Shortstop

Few players have the power/speed combination that Villar has, and he showed us that last night with a homer to lead off the game and a steal later on. His price remains at $4,300 tonight against a middling pitcher in Wacha. Villar’s huge strikeout rate and the unimposing lineup hitting behind him will never make him a “must-have” guy, but his upside far exceeds this price tag.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why Bogaerts and Correa are priced where they are, so I’m going to stop making you read so many words and just end it there.

Jake Junis has given up a .351 wOBA and a 1.3 HR/9 to lefties over the last two seasons, and Polanco has been a fixture in the top three of that juggernaut Twins offense. He does not have huge home run potential, especially in Kansas City’s big ballpark, but this is a nice cheap cash play against a hittable pitcher.

Outfield

Yelich draws probably the worst matchup on the slate against Bauer, who has looked electric this year. However, we know what Yelich can do, and we know the blow-ups that Bauer is inclined to having, so I think this price fits in as a value nonetheless. Yelich had a lazy fly ball turn into an inside-the-park home run last night, so don’t be fooled by the box score there – he did not hit that ball well. However, he did see the ball incredibly well, drawing four walks. The smart money is on a turn around for Yelich, so get your shares while he’s under $5,000.

Castellanos is probably the National League MVP at this point in the year and he’s priced at $4,500 in Miller Park against a lefty. I’m all about not putting much stock into two weeks of games, but Casty should be at least a few hundred more expensive.

Pederson gives you cheap homer upside against Samardzija at home, but also will give you a big fat goose egg quite frequently – so I’ll stick more to tournaments for Joc.

As for Tucker, he is probably the best play of the night if he’s leading off in George Springer’s absence. Yes, Chris Bassitt has looked excellent in 2020, but Tucker is too good to be priced at $3,300 if he’s leading off. He has big power and bigger steals upside.

Tyler O’Neill falls into the tournament category as well as he has huge pop but hits low in the order and has a big strikeout problem. He is a boom-or-bust outfield punt at $3,000.

7 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Trevor Bauer (SP – CIN) $10,600: Strikeouts are king on DraftKings, and Bauer has always brought those to the table. He has an electric arm that does not seem to ever tire, and he’s off to a ripping start in 2020 with 20 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 13.1 innings. The Brewers can always ruin a party at home, but Bauer is the top raw projection on the slate.
• Julio Urias (SP – LAD) $9,800: I am weary of this salary for Urias. He very rarely throws more than 90 pitches (he’s thrown 78 and 90 in his two starts this year), and he doesn’t have massive strikeout upside with a 25% strikeout rate over the last two seasons. However, he is a massive, massive favorite in this game (-264 right now), and the Giants are possibly the worst offense in the league. He is more of a safe cash game play than a tourney winner, but I couldn’t leave him out of this post.
• Mike Trout (OF – LAA) $5,900: At this price, you almost need a homer for it to really pay off, but I feel like it’s nearly sinful to not put his name in here. This is taking the easy way out, so I’m going to expand this list to SEVEN players because of my cowardice.
• Bryce Harper (OF – PHI) $5,600: Kyle Wright actually has pretty nasty stuff, but Harper is probably unconcerned with that. He has posted a .550 slugging percentage and two homers in just 28 plate appearances this year while walking in 25% of his plate appearances. Wright really struggles with command, so there is a really good chance Harper gets a few cheap points with walks and runs scored, and he could even steal a base tonight with this kind of on-base upside.
• Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE) $5,300: Remember at the beginning of this post when I wrote I wouldn’t recommend a full Indians stack? That was right before I recommended half the Indians lineup in the post. If you didn’t catch it earlier, Cease has been very bad against lefties in his young career, and Ramirez has been crushing the ball. He has huge homer and steal upside, which makes him a very safe play at any price point.
• Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL) $5,200: The most blow-up prone pitcher in baseball might be Vince Velasquez, who has allowed a .348 wOBA to lefties in his career while walking 10% of the ones he faces. Freeman has seen a lot of VV in his career (30 whole plate appearances, the BvP heads are spinning!), and has a .400 OBP with a .407 slugging percentage in those games – though he has never homered. I’m guessing those numbers improve tonight.
• Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD) $4,800: I know I hurt some feelings earlier when I criticized the hallowed Batter vs. Pitcher statistic. I’m here to make it up to you. Bellinger has a .974 career OPS against Samardzija with a .429 OBP. That is all in just 14 plate appearances, so this stat is still meaningless, but I’m not trying to make enemies here. Bellinger is a $5,500 player in $4,800 clothing – and he is going off tonight.
• Shohei Ohtani (1B – LAA) $4,700: Ohtani has three bombs, eight RBI, and a steal in 32 plate appearances this year. Lyles has given up 1.95 homers per nine innings to lefties over the last two years with a 14% walk rate and a .370 wOBA allowed. The arm injury may be a serious positive for Ohtani’s hitting stats this year, as he can fully focus on racking up the offensive stats now. He’s a bit too cheap in this spot.

Notable Players to Fade

• Zack Greinke (SP – HOU) $10,200: One prediction I have gotten wrong over and over again in my fantasy baseball writing career is saying negative things about Greinke. What do you do when you’re continually wrong about a subject? Don’t change your mind and get more vehement, of course. In all seriousness, I just don’t like paying five-figures for a pitcher with a 23% strikeout rate. Greinke isn’t even a real favorite in this game with a -110 game line. I’ll go up to Bauer or down to Urias at SP tonight.
• Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) $6,000: I’m not sure why you would pay more for Betts than Trout, especially when you consider that Samardzija has actually been pretty tough on righties with a .272 wOBA and just 1.2 HR/9 allowed since 2019. I’ll pass on this exorbitant price for Betts.
• Jose Altuve (2B – HOU): $5,800: Cavernous ballpark, talented pitcher, bloated priced tag.
• Alex Bregman (3B – HOU): $5,500: See Alex Bregman
• Javier Baez (SS – CHC) $4,700: The Cardinals starter Ponce de Leon has a .297 xwOBA allowed with a 27% strikeout rate over the last two years. I’m staying away from the Cubs at these higher prices.
• Rockies: If I had to write the Ten Commandments of MLB DFS, I would probably include “Thou Shalt Not Play Rockies on the First Day of a Road Trip” in the list. Their prices come down when they leave Coors, but not enough, and they just really do not perform well after leaving that high altitude.

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