For the last few months, we’ve talked about a lot of different stats. Yards after contact, percent of team targets, yards per target, catch rate, yards per carry, touches per game, etc. The list goes on and on. We study the history of coaches and coordinators, trying to find the trends in order to create the most accurate projections.
That’s all great, but why don’t we utilize every bit of technology we have? We know there are advancements in technology every year, but does any of it apply to fantasy football? Well, yeah.
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While some have caught on by now, there’s not enough people who know about NFL’s NextGenStats. They place chips in every player’s shoulder pads, tracking their movements, highlighting their speeds, how close players were in proximity when targeted, and more. For instance, did you know that Matt Breida was the fastest player in the NFL each of the last two years? He was clocked at 22.09 miles per hour in 2018, then 22.30 miles per hour in 2019. In 2017, it was Leonard Fournette atop the charts at 21.76 miles per hour. So, when someone says nobody can catch Tyreek Hill, it appears that both Breida, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Devin McCourty can, at least in the top-end.
While those speeds won’t do anything for fantasy purposes, I’ve gone through their data to find things that just might help us gain that little edge on our competition in fantasy football. At the very least, they could help sway you if you’re having a tough time deciding between two players. Remember that understanding the game in general will always make you a better fantasy player. After reading about my most important takeaways, you can find the full list of NextGenStats right here.
Quarterbacks
Time to Throw
This is typically where you’ll see mobile quarterbacks who’ll buy time behind the line of scrimmage. It was Deshaun Watson atop this list in 2017, then Josh Allen in 2018. Oddly enough, it was Kirk Cousins in 2019, averaging 3.01 seconds to throw. It makes sense that he completed 69.1 percent of his passes with that type of time. By comparison, Andy Dalton averaged a league-low 2.51 seconds to throw. It may not seem like a lot, but half a second can be the difference from a receiver getting open, and a pass getting intercepted. It’s no shock that Dalton completed just 59.5 percent of his passes. It helps that the Bengals are getting first-round pick Jonah Williams back at left tackle, but the Bengals offensive line is a big question mark.
Average Completed Air Yards/Average Intended Yards Difference
This stat should show how aggressive a quarterback is in his attempts, and those who are willing to take shots down the field much more, and not rely on so much dink-and-dunk, allowing their receivers to create after the catch. Josh Allen is more than willing to throw the ball down the field, averaging 9.4 air yards per pass attempt. The issue is that he averaged just 6.2 yards on his average completion. That’s a difference of 3.2 yards, the third-highest discrepancy in the league, and this comes after he was the worst in the league during the 2018 season. The only quarterbacks who were worse in 2019? Mason Rudolph and… Aaron Rodgers. The others in this territory were Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Devlin Hodges. Not great company to be in, Mr. Rodgers. On the flip side, Jimmy Garoppolo was the most efficient quarterback in football, having a difference of just 1.1 yards. Those continually in that territory are Drew Brees and Derek Carr.
Aggressiveness
This stat shows just how willing a quarterback is to make throws into tight coverage, as it’s defined by a defender within one yard when the ball gets to the pass-catcher, either complete or incomplete. If you’ve got a wide receiver who might struggle to gain separation, but is great in jump-ball situations, this is where you’d like to see a high percentage of throws. The full-time quarterbacks who took the least amount of risk last year include Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers. These quarterbacks want separators. If there’s a receiver on their team that fails to separate, you may want to lower them on your board (see the wide receiver section of this article). One player who needs to be noted is Tom Brady, who’s continually in the non-aggressive tier. He threw into tight coverage just 15.2 percent of the time in 2019 and 13.9 percent in 2018. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston threw into tight coverage 20.4 percent of the time in 2018 and 16.8 percent of the time in 2019.
The most aggressive quarterbacks in 2019 included Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Tannehill. All of them threw into tight coverage at least 19 percent of the time. Here’s a fun fact: Tannehill’s expected completion rate based on depth of target and yards of separation was just 62.2 percent. He completed 70.3 percent. The 8.0-yard difference was the largest in the league, while Drew Brees was second with a 6.3-yard difference. Regression is coming for Tannehill. Stafford had to throw into tight coverage last year, as Kenny Golladay (1.9 yards) and Marvin Jones (2.1 yards) both ranked bottom-three in separation at target.
Running Backs
Efficiency
This is a very interesting stat and one that cannot be found elsewhere, as it’s very specific. It measures the distance a running back travels per yard gained on rushing plays. Running sideways gets you no yards gained, so the higher the number, the more east/west the running back is. The lower the number, the more they are straight to the point, north/south. The most efficient running back in this category each of the last two years has been… Gus Edwards. He’s a no-nonsense runner and one who simply runs north/south. His efficiency has been 2.78 and 2.93 over the last two years, while no other running back has been under 3.13 yards. Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, and Ezekiel Elliott are the only other running backs who averaged fewer than 3.5 yards.
The least efficient running backs last year were Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Austin Ekeler, and Tevin Coleman, as all of them traveled at least 4.28 yards for every yard gained. Is this bad? Well, here is the list of running backs who were not efficient from 2018: LeGarrette Blount, LeSean McCoy, Tarik Cohen, Alex Collins, Carlos Hyde, and Chris Ivory. So, it’s not good. They need to stop dancing east/west and get straight to business in 2020.
8-Plus Defenders in the Box
This is the stat that I was looking forward to when NextGenStats became available, as it tells you a story about just how uphill of a battle that a running back was facing. While packages vary and the offense could very well add eight blockers up front, this gives us a solid average of what a running back sees on a weekly basis. If you’re new to this terminology, when a defense has eight or more in the box, it’s more than the traditional seven players that occupy the area, meaning they’re focused more on stopping the run, making it harder on the running back. Those who saw stacked boxes the most often in 2019 were Tevin Coleman (40.2 percent), Frank Gore (37.4 percent), Latavius Murray (35.6 percent), Derrick Henry (35.3 percent), and Sony Michel (33.6 percent). They had an uphill battle to finish with a higher yards per carry than their peers, so it’s quite the accomplishment for Henry to average 5.1 yards per carry and Murray to average 4.6 yards per carry. Other notables were Raheem Mostert (32.1 percent) and Leonard Fournette (31.7 percent). Coming into last year, Fournette had seen a stacked box on 44.3 percent of his career carries. It’s not shocking to see him post a career-high 4.3 yards per attempt last year with that percentage dropping 12.6 percent.
These running backs are the ones who had it a lot easier, seeing base defenses much more often than others: Devin Singletary (5.3 percent), David Johnson (5.3 percent), Joe Mixon (7.9 percent), Damien Williams (8.1 percent), Kenyan Drake (8.8 percent), and Austin Ekeler (10.6 percent). It’s shocking to see this and notice that Johnson averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. He’s now going to a team (Texans) where last year’s starter Carlos Hyde saw 8-plus defenders 14.7 percent of the time. Singletary was clearly on the field in a different role than Frank Gore (37.4 percent stacked box), so comparing his yards per carry to others in his range doesn’t make sense.
Time Behind the Line of Scrimmage
You may think that this one aligns with the efficiency numbers from above, but that’s not necessarily true, because a player could place his hand on an offensive lineman’s back, waiting for a hole to open up rather than running east to west. Granted, there will be some parallels between the two, but there are also some standouts that are displaying great patience. Two players that did spend a lot of time behind the line of scrimmage but were great with efficiency were Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb. Both averaged at least 2.98 seconds behind the line of scrimmage (both in bottom-six), but both averaged fewer than 3.6 yards of travel per yard gained (both top-10). One of the worrisome parts of this area is Austin Ekeler, who not only spent 3.09 seconds behind the line of scrimmage (second-most in the NFL), but he also averaged 4.40 yards traveled per yard gained (fourth-worst in the NFL). That’s eerily similar to how Tarik Cohen was in 2018.
Wide Receivers
Cushion
It’s always interesting to see how opponents treat wide receivers when it comes to press coverage at the line of scrimmage, as some receivers have difficulty breaking that initial contact, disrupting the timing of their route. The larger the cushion, the more likely they’re concerned about the receivers speed, while the smaller cushion is typically for a possession-style receiver. Seeing Calvin Ridley at the top of this list highlights just how good he can be. He averaged 7.4 yards of cushion, highlighting that defensive backs are not only worried about his separation, but also worried about him beating them over the top. Robert Woods is No. 2 on this list, which is kind of crazy considering his average depth of target was just 8.1 yards down the field. This is a nod to Sean McVay for moving Woods around the formation, as it’s difficult to play press when a receiver is on the move.
The receivers who find themselves with the smallest cushion include Robby Anderson, Preston Williams, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Darius Slayton, D.K. Metcalf, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. All of them average less than a five-yard cushion. It’s somewhat shocking to see the speedy Anderson here, but it makes sense when you watch the film, as he isn’t a physical receiver and will sometimes give up on plays. Brown makes sense considering teams were daring Josh Allen to beat him deep, something he rarely did. Diggs made defensive backs pay for their lack of cushion, as he led the NFL in deep-ball yardage (635) and touchdowns (6). The shocking one on this list is Metcalf, as you’re not going to overpower him, and he can clearly beat you with his speed. Smith-Schuster moving back to the slot will be huge for his projection moving forward, as he’ll get more separation there than he did on the perimeter.
Yards of Separation at Target
Who are the kings of separation? While this does require their quarterback to target them at the right time – which leaves some room for error – it should highlight who sheds their defenders better than most, though it benefits slot receivers who could potentially see a linebacker or safety in coverage. But when you match a quarterback who hates to throw into tight coverage with a shifty slot receiver, you wind up with someone who sees a lot of targets. Would it shock you to know that rookie receiver Diontae Johnson led all wide receivers in yards of separation at target? He averaged 3.6 yards of separation despite playing with some bad quarterbacks. The fact that he only played in the slot 12.6 percent of the time makes it all that much more ridiculous. He’s a true breakout candidate in 2020. Christian Kirk wasn’t far behind, averaging 3.6 yards of separation, which is a big deal considering Kyler Murray was someone who didn’t take many risks. The other prominent non-slot-heavy wide receivers above 3.0 yards of separation were Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Sterling Shepard, and Brandin Cooks.
One of the receivers who struggled to gain separation in 2019 was Kenny Golladay. In fact, his 1.9 yards of separation was the worst in the NFL. His teammate Marvin Jones wasn’t much better at 2.1 yards. There were actually some big names who averaged less than 2.3 yards of separation. The names include Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, DeVante Parker, Golden Tate, Julio Jones, Michael Gallup, Allen Robinson, A.J. Brown, and Darius Slayton. They all outperformed expectations, but it may be tough for that to continue at the same pace without gaining more separation. What their quarterbacks have shown, however, is that they will target them no matter what. For someone like Williams, though, this can be a problem. Going back to when Tyrod Taylor was a starter, he was one of the most risk averse quarterbacks, while Philip Rivers was one who was willing to throw into tight coverage.
Targeted Air Yards Percentage
This stat shows the overall potential that a receiver had in their offense, as air yards indicate opportunity, which often equals fantasy points. It should come as no surprise that the elite rise to the top here, as Courtland Sutton, Michael Thomas, and Stefon Diggs all totaled at least 41 percent of their team’s air yards. Knowing that Sutton led the league in this stat and still finished as the WR19 should have you a bit worried about his upside. As for Diggs, he saw just 92 targets, so you now understand just how little volume there was in the Vikings offense and why I’m not particularly high on Justin Jefferson in 2020 despite him being a very good football player. Some players who had an unusually high share but aren’t being drafted like it include Robby Anderson (36.7 percent), James Washington (33.3 percent), Curtis Samuel (30.6 percent), and Chris Conley (30.4 percent). Anderson is out of New York, so we could see Breshad Perriman in that territory. Washington has new competition in Chase Claypool, but not many realize just how efficient Washington was in 2019. Samuel has a new quarterback, offense, and added competition. Conley will be competing with Laviska Shenault and has a new offensive coordinator.
Tight Ends
Targeted Air Yards Percentage
This is one that I expected to be very predictive, as the tight ends who are regularly targeted almost always finish inside the top-12 in fantasy football. Naturally, we see Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle atop the list. The worrying part of this list is the bottom, as Jonnu Smith totaled just 5.6 percent of the team’s air yards (ranked dead last among tight ends who saw at least 43 targets) on a run-first team that may not throw the ball 500 times. That’s a problem for his projected breakout. Other guys who have perceived “breakout” potential are Irv Smith (7.8 percent) and Dallas Goedert (10.5 percent). If their percentages remain in the same territory, that’s nearly impossible.
If you’d like to see all the NextGenStats available to the public, you can find them right here.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.