The NBA has returned, and daily fantasy basketball has returned with it. The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick five individual player prop lines, take the over or under, put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 55-person $750 Slam Dunk contest, 66.7% will go to first place, so you’ll want to avoid too much chalk at the top of your lineup. Let’s take a look at some options for Saturday’s slate. Since lineups lock at the tipoff of the first game, you’ve got until 1:00 PM to get in on the action.
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Best Higher-Priority Prop Bets
Nikola Jokic (DEN): Under 20.5 Points
Jokic draws the Miami Heat in a game that sportsbooks project him to lose. Although FiveThirtyEight is bullish on the Nuggets, I’m not confident in Jokic’s chances to crack 21 points.
Jokic beat this mark just once in his last six games, and he’s averaging only 20.5 points on the season. Also, the Heat’s mid-pack defense held him to just nine points back in November. He also averaged just nine points across the three warm-up scrimmages. There’s not a whole lot going for Jokic here, so I’m confident about the under.
I don’t expect other NHA players to have faith in Jokic either, however, so you might not want to make this your top option for Saturday’s slate.
LeBron James (LAL): Under 26.5 Points
After Friday’s thrilling return, the public could be high on King James and the Lakers. Both the sportsbooks and FiveThirtyEight have them as favorites. And while more of this hype should extend in Anthony Davis‘ direction, James could be overvalued by association.
This line sits almost a full point above James’ season-long average of 25.6. He hit the over in four of his last six, but that doesn’t include his first bubble game against the Clippers, where he scored just 16 points. And the last time he took on the Raptors’ second-ranked defense, James scored only 13 points in 35 minutes.
Of course, James has the potential to pop off and light up even the best defenses. He dismantled the league-leading Bucks for 37 points back in March, so it’s never a sure thing to bet against him. This play could be a good five-point or four-point option if you can stomach the risk.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC): Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
This line is free points, and you shouldn’t say no to free points. Leonard has hit at the over in all of his last six games and 19 of his last 25. The Pelicans’ 20th-ranked defense shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Leonard’s three-point production, either, and the Clippers are favored at both the sportsbooks and FiveThirtyEight.
That said, there’s a chance that the Clippers get ahead early and can give Leonard some rest. Five of his six misses were wins, and three of those were blowouts. The Clippers may not have the depth needed to dismantle their opponents anymore, however, as neither Lou Williams nor Montrezl Harrell will suit up tomorrow.
You should expect this to be a popular play. You should play it with a high priority anyway — take the chalk and run.
Best Lower-Priority Prop Bets
Pascal Siakam (TOR): Over 7.5 Rebounds
The Raptors may not win tomorrow, but look for Siakam to post some good numbers. When he played 42 minutes against the Lakers back in November, he scored 24 points and earned 11 rebounds.
But there’s some risk here, too. Siakam cleared the over in only three of his last six games, and he’s hit that mark in just 10 of his last 25. Most of the misses came in blowout wins, however, and this line is two for four when the Raptors lose.
I’m not confident enough in Siakam to take this as a five or four-point pick, but it’s a sneaky play with your two or one-point slot.
Brandon Ingram (NOR): Under 2.5 Three-Pointers
The Pelicans got off to a slow start against the Jazz. New Orleans is still multiple games out of eighth place, and they’ll need everything they can get to keep their season alive.
Enter Brandon Ingram. The 22-year-old small forward has only scored more than 2.5 three-pointers in two of his last six, and he cleared the over by just one in those two games. While he’s cleared the over in 13 of his last 25, five of those performances came in early January. He did not clear the over in his previous game against the Clippers.
Ingram and the Pelicans are trending downward. Given the Clippers’ strong defense and the Pelicans’ struggles, I’m okay with betting against them and taking the under here.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
