Wide receiver is truly a mosh pit. There’s so much depth, and so many guys can breakout as a WR1 in any given week. But there are still plenty of pass catchers who are being overvalued by the market.
Here are my five overvalued wide receivers based on their current Average Draft Positions:
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Current ADP: No. 27 overall, WR9
No. Just no. I’m not riding the Amari Cooper Rollercoaster, even at an early third-round price.
You look at Cooper’s 2019 body of work and see 79 receptions for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns, good for the WR9 in half-point PPR leagues. But the ride wasn’t nearly as smooth as the final stats would indicate.
In Week 5, Cooper balled out, catching 11 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown. The next week? One catch for three yards. Granted, Cooper played with injuries for a majority of the season, but his inconsistency makes him so irritating to have on your team.
Cooper’s upside is sky-high in what should be a potent Dallas passing game. The talent’s always been there. But Cooper’s ability to shine one week, then fade away the next isn’t worth the third-round investment for me. At that stage of the draft, I’d rather take Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp or Adam Thielen.
Wide receiver is truly a mosh pit. There’s so much depth, and so many guys can breakout as a WR1 in any given week. But there are still plenty of pass catchers who are being overvalued by the market.
Here are my five overvalued wide receivers based on their current Average Draft Positions:
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator
Current ADP: No. 27 overall, WR9
No. Just no. I’m not riding the Amari Cooper Rollercoaster, even at an early third-round price.
You look at Cooper’s 2019 body of work and see 79 receptions for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns, good for the WR9 in half-point PPR leagues. But the ride wasn’t nearly as smooth as the final stats would indicate.
In Week 5, Cooper balled out, catching 11 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown. The next week? One catch for three yards. Granted, Cooper played with injuries for a majority of the season, but his inconsistency makes him so irritating to have on your team.
Cooper’s upside is sky-high in what should be a potent Dallas passing game. The talent’s always been there. But Cooper’s ability to shine one week, then fade away the next isn’t worth the third-round investment for me. At that stage of the draft, I’d rather take Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp or Adam Thielen.
Current ADP: No. 28 overall, WR10
How fitting is it that two of the most maddening wide receivers in the league are going back-to-back in drafts right now? If Cooper was frustrating during his 2019 season, then Beckham was maddening, finishing as the WR26 in half-point PPR formats.
You could argue Beckham deserves a pass after he played through a sports hernia last year. But it’s hard to believe in Beckham as even a low-end WR1 given the uncertainty surrounding Baker Mayfield. Plus, Cleveland could implement a much heavier running game with new head coach Kevin Stefanski coming from Minnesota.
In most cases, I’d consider an immensely talented, 27-year-old receiver coming off a down year as a great buy-low candidate. But I just can’t trust Beckham at his current price.
Current ADP: No. 34 overall, WR16
Although Brown finished as the WR15 in his rookie season, I can’t buy the hype on him just yet. Tennessee is an offense I’m looking to fade entirely in 2020.
Frankly, a lot of what Tennessee accomplished with Ryan Tannehill last season was fluky. Tannehill’s a career dink-and-dunker who went from averaging only seven yards per attempt through his first six seasons to averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in 2019.
Meanwhile, Brown ranked 17th in the league with an average of 11.3 yards before the catch per reception, and he ranked 29th with an average depth of target of 13.2 yards.
Tennessee’s powerful rushing attack opened up more downfield opportunities, particularly in play-action. Tannehill only threw 84 pass attempts off play-action, but racked up 1,095 yards on those attempts, an average of 13 yards per play-action attempt. To compare, Jared Goff led all quarterbacks with 1,564 yards on a whopping 194 play-action passes, an average of eight yards per play-action attempt.
I’m willing to bet that a year’s worth of film will help opposing defenses shut down Tennessee’s rushing attack and expose Tannehill as nothing more than a game manager. Tennessee’s offense screams regression, which will make it tough for Brown to finish as a top-12 receiver.
Current ADP: No. 67 overall, WR28
I really mean no disrespect at all to Green, who has had a heck of a career. But you have to be pretty naive about Green’s injury history to invest a mid-seventh round pick on him. He’s 32 years old, has only played one full season since 2016 and is coming off a nasty ankle injury that cost him his 2019 season.
Oh, and he’s already dealing with a hamstring issue to begin training camp. Sure, the Bengals played it off as precautionary. But at this point, we’re conditioned to think the worst about Green’s health.
There’s finally upside at quarterback in the form of Joe Burrow. And when Green stays on the field, he’s usually pretty darn good. But I can’t make a logical case to invest this much in him.
Current ADP: No. 96 overall, WR37
Drafting Will Fuller is as tempting as sticking your hand in the cookie jar was as a kid. You know you shouldn’t. But that cookie is just so darn tasty. You can’t resist your urges and grab one. And while that cookie tasted really good, it’s not worth the trouble you’ll get in later on.
Will Fuller is a tasty temptation. He’s great at what he does and is a threat to win you a week with just a few big plays. But the problem with Fuller is the taste never lasts a full season. The cookie crumbles, as Fuller has failed to play a full season in his four-year career.
The departure of DeAndre Hopkins might open up some more targets for Fuller. Then again, Fuller and Hopkins played completely different roles. And Brandin Cooks is now in town to also share some of the downfield work.
I’m not betting on this year being the year Fuller stays intact for the entire season. When Round 8 comes around, just don’t take the cookie.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
