Quarterback is deeper than it’s ever been in 1-QB leagues, which is why it can be hard to identify true “busts,” at the position. It’s easy to cut your losses on a guy who isn’t performing and just stream the position.
But even with streaming options in our back pocket, there are a handful of quarterbacks I expect to disappoint this season. Here are my four busts at quarterback for the 2020 season based on our Expert Consensus Rankings and ADP Consensus tool.
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Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
ECR QB7, No. 7 QB in ADP
Is Josh Allen even a good quarterback? That question still needs answering as the Bills’ gunslinger enters his third professional season.
Allen has one of the best arms in the league, but to say his accuracy wavered at times in 2019 would be an enormous understatement. His 58.8 completion percentage probably speaks for itself. Making matters worse is that Allen ranked 5th in the NFL with a 20.6 poor throw percentage. He also threw an on-target pass on just 73.2 percent of his passes, which ranked 21st among quarterbacks.
The Allen believers will point to last season’s QB6 finish and say it’s only the beginning. But I’m not buying it. Allen was boosted by nine rushing touchdowns. For comparison, the league MVP Lamar Jackson only had seven rushing scores. Rushing touchdowns are extremely unsustainable for quarterbacks, and I don’t think the addition of Stefon Diggs will make Allen efficient enough to merit him as a top-8 quarterback.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
ECR QB14, No. 15 QB in ADP
Some people love eating before going on a roller coaster. Those people also probably will draft Daniel Jones in their fantasy leagues.
Much like riding a roller coaster on a full stomach, Jones seems to be a quarterback who will be thrilling and sickening to own at the same time. He finished as the QB23 last season after taking the reins from Eli Manning during the second half of the year. And sure, he could get better! But I don’t get why he’s being drafted ahead of Ben Roethlisberger or Jared Goff.
Sure, Jones put up big numbers, throwing for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns in only 12 starts. But he also threw 12 interceptions and fumbled 18 times. Do you know who that sort of reminds me of? Captain Turnover Jameis Winston. Jones will need to take the next step as a pocket passer and must show much more discipline this season to sway me.
As fun as the roller coaster might’ve been, it’s never worth it when you’re throwing up 15 minutes later. There are steadier guys I’d rather have as my starter if I’m really waiting on the position.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
ECR QB19, No. 20 QB in ADP
Most of what Ryan Tannehill did last season felt like a fluke. I’m fading him entirely in 2020, and wouldn’t even recommend drafting him as a backup in a 2-QB league.
Tannehill’s a career dink-and-dunker who went from averaging only seven yards per attempt through his first six seasons to averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in 2019. Meanwhile, Brown ranked 17th in the league with an average of 11.3 yards before the catch per reception, and he ranked 29th with an average depth of target of 13.2 yards.
Tennessee’s powerful rushing attack opened up more downfield opportunities, particularly in play-action. Tannehill only threw 84 pass attempts out of play-action, but racked up 1,095 yards on those attempts, an average of 13 yards per play-action attempt. To compare, Jared Goff led all quarterbacks with 1,564 yards on a whopping 194 play-action passes, an average of eight yards per play-action attempt.
I’m willing to bet that a year’s worth of film will help opposing defenses shut down Tennessee’s rushing attack and expose Tannehill as nothing more than a game manager.
Cam Newton (QB – NE)
ECR QB16, No. 19 QB in ADP
I have a feeling Cam Newton’s draft stock will rise closer to QB1 consideration as August wraps up, but I’m just worried he’s too damaged.
Newton is coming off a Lisfranc foot injury after playing only two games in 2019. For a quarterback who depends on mobility as much as Newton, that injury could be a serious impediment. And let’s not forget he underwent shoulder surgery after the 2018 campaign.
The weapons in New England aren’t particularly great, either. Julian Edelman is as reliable as they come, but Newton’s short-field inaccuracy could prevent them from connecting consistently. At this stage in his career, Newton might need more legitimate weapons to be an impactful weekly starter.
I don’t see Newton running as much as he had when he was at his best. And if he does, his durability is a major concern at this point. Even as a QB2, I’d rather just take the pass on Cam revitalizing his career with the Patriots.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
