Touchdowns are one of the least predictable stats on a year-to-year basis. As a result, players can sometimes score fewer touchdowns than they should in a given year. That often leads fantasy drafters to sleep on them heading into the next season.
That means you can often get a great player for much cheaper than they should be going for. FantasyPros’ touchdown regression report can help you identify strong regression-based values, although some fantasy players have already inflated the ADPs of some of these guys.
Let’s take a look at some positive touchdown regression candidates for the 2020 season. All player rankings and ADPs are for leagues with PPR scoring!
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Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (ARI)
2020 ADP: QB6
2019 Rank: QB7
2019 Rank + Regression: QB6 (+1)
Murray scored 24 touchdowns in his rookie season, 20 of them through the air, and four of them on the ground. This year, he’ll get to play with DeAndre Hopkins, and he’ll have rookie tackle, Josh Jones, to help keep him upright.
As a rookie, Murray’s PATD% was just 3.69% — the second-lowest among this year’s top-24 QBs. This number should regress to around 4.32%, which would net him an additional two passing scores. As this season’s QB6, fantasy drafters are taking Murray right around his ceiling, and there’s not much value in picking him right now. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it, but it does mean you won’t get him at a discount.
Tom Brady (TB)
2020 ADP: QB10
2019 Rank: QB12
2019 Rank + Regression: QB7 (+5)
Brady should benefit significantly from positive touchdown regression. It’s kind of cheating to list him here because of the change in scenery, but the Patriots’ receiving corps was ridiculously inefficient last season, and Brady would’ve seen more scores even if he had stuck around.
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski will help Brady improve his fourth-worst PATD% for eligible passers. That said, the model might be overstating Brady’s potential gains. Brady posted the best RUTD% among this year’s top-24 passers, but the model expects it to increase even more in 2020. Since I doubt that Bruce Arians will use Brady near the goal line as often as Bill Belichick did, this number may decrease instead.
Like Murray, you aren’t going to get Brady at much of a discount with his QB10 price tag, but he’s a good late-round option in redraft leagues.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (CIN)
2020 ADP: RB7
2019 Rank: RB13
2019 Rank + Regression: RB11 (+2)
Mixon logged eight scores in 2019, and he did so on 313 total touches. He ran behind the seventh-worst run-blocking unit last year, and the Bengals haven’t improved much in that department — ProFootballFocus ranked them third-worst entering 2020. That said, the team finished sixth in rushing over the last half of 2019, and they’ll have a healthy Jonah Williams, their 2019 first-round tackle, on the roster.
Mixon’s RUTD% ranked tenth-worst for this year’s top-50 running backs, but given his heavy workload and red-zone usage, positive regression would come with a larger impact. Mixon is going in the back half of first rounds, and that’s about where he belongs. You won’t get him at a discount.
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)
2020 ADP: RB17
2019 Rank: RB16
2019 Rank + Regression:RB14 (+2)
Finally, a player who you can get at a lower price because of scoring inefficiency! Bell only scored four times last season — three times on the ground, once through the air. It was his worst fantasy season since his six-game 2016. Despite Adam Gase and the Jets’ second-worst run-blocking offensive line, we can expect some positive touchdown regression out of Bell. Also, they added tackle Mekhi Becton and center Connor McGovern, so there’s some cause for optimism in the trenches.
His RUTD% was sixth-worst among 2020’s top-50 running backs, but it’s his RECTD% that should improve the most. Bell caught 66 passes, but he only scored once, and our model expects that rate to improve by a full percentage point. As long as Gase doesn’t use Frank Gore in the red zone, Bell could beat his ADP of RB17. You should feel comfortable with him in the late third or early fourth.
Sony Michel (NE)
2020 ADP: RB37
2019 Rank: RB31
2019 Rank + Regression: RB25 (+6)
Let’s assume that Michel gets healthy for the start of the season. I know that’s a big assumption, but hear me out. Michel scored seven times last year — all on rushing plays. While he certainly could’ve been more efficient on a yards-per-carry basis, he also saw three scores vultured by Brandon Bolden, a special-teamer who opted out. He also failed to score on any of his 20 targets.
Michel’s RUTD% was pretty good, as it was higher than both Nick Chubb’s and Chris Carson’s. But our model expects it to get even better, as he’s featured heavily in the red zone, and it also expects to Michel to score on at least one of his passing plays. The points boost equates to just under two touchdowns. You’ll need to monitor his injury status (and what the Patriots intend to do with Lamar Miller), but Michel could be a solid value at his tumbling ADP.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)
2020 ADP: WR12
2019 Rank: WR25
2019 Rank + Regression: WR22 (+3)
Things did not start off well for Odell in Cleveland — he scored only four touchdowns. He claims to have played through a sports hernia, however, so it’s no surprise that he failed to return on his high-end ADP. Oh, that and the fact that he was getting coached by Freddie Kitchens.
Beckham’s RECTD% ranked fifth-worst for 2020’s top-50 wide receivers. But Beckham’s high volume makes any positive regression more impactful, and the model expects him to score roughly two more times if his volume remains the same. For Odell’s sake, let’s hope that Baker Mayfield can take the next step with a better coach and behind a much-improved offensive line.
Robert Woods (LAR)
2020 ADP: WR19
2019 Rank: WR14
2019 Rank + Regression: WR11 (+3)
Woods earned the ninth-most targets (139) last year, and he caught the 11th-most passes (90). Yet he only caught two touchdowns, the same number as guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jaron Brown. And with Brandin Cooks out of Los Angeles, Woods is a safe bet to cross the goal line more frequently.
Woods’ RECTD% is the lowest among top-50 receivers. In fact, it’s the third-worst of all eligible receivers who caught at least one touchdown — only Auden Tate and Russell Gage had worse rates. Woods should score at least one more receiving touchdown in 2020, and his heavy usage in the passing game makes him an absolute steal at WR19.
Julian Edelman (NE)
2020 ADP: WR32
2019 Rank: WR7
2019 Rank + Regression: WR6 (+1)
Someone needs to help me understand why last year’s WR7 is the current WR32. Yes, he lost Tom Brady, but the Patriots added Cam Newton to replace him, and it’s not hard to throw dump-off passes to slot receivers. Edelman earned the fourth-most targets (153) and caught the fifth-most passes (100), but he only scored the 25th-most touchdowns (6).
Edelman’s RECTD% ranks ninth for the top-50 receivers. That’s not bad, but his massive volume gives positive regression more weight. While our model expects him to score at least twice more, which I think is optimistic given the offensive changes in New England, he’s still a screaming value at his current ADP. Draft him with confidence as a WR3/4.
Mike Williams (LAC)
2020 ADP: WR49
2019 Rank: WR41
2019 Rank + Regression: WR37 (+4)
Philip Rivers’ struggles undermined Williams’ fantasy performance in 2019. He scored just twice on 90 targets, as he could only catch 49 of them. That’s good for the worst CTCH% of his career as a starter. Only 73.3 percent (66) of his targets were catchable, however, so he managed to pull in roughly three-quarters of the passes he should’ve. That’s not great, but Tyrod Taylor should be an easier quarterback to work with.
Williams’ RECTD% was the second-worst among this year’s top-50 receivers. Our model expects him to score about twice more, and although Tyrod Taylor is known as a conservative passer, he has spoken out about the receiver’s ability to catch deep balls. Williams looks like a good value at his current ADP, and he’s a good boom-or-bust play at WR3/4.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (LAR)
2020 ADP: TE8
2019 Rank: TE8
2019 Rank + Regression: TE7 (+1)
Higbee finished 2019 on a high note. From Week 13 to Week 17, he totaled 522 yards and two scores on 43 catches. He had only one other touchdown earlier in the year, so he ended the season with 69 receptions and just three tuddies.
If the Rams continue to feature Higbee, expect big things from him in 2020. His RECTD% was third-worst among this year’s top-24 tight ends, and our model expects it to regress by two percentage points — good for around two touchdowns. If you’re drafting Higbee, you’re getting him around his ceiling, but the lack of a discount shouldn’t prevent you from drafting him.
T.J. Hockenson (DET)
2020 ADP: TE14
2019 Rank: TE31
2019 Rank + Regression: TE29 (+1)
After an electric six-catch, one-score Week 1 performance, Hock disappointed in 2019. He caught just 32 total passes and scored just twice. That said, he played without star quarterback Matthew Stafford for a good chunk of the season.
Hockenson’s RECTD% was the fifth-worst for eligible players, but it should improve by just under a percentage point. That means around one extra score for Hock in 2020, and while that’s not a lot, it helps justify his low-end TE1 ADP. He’s a high-upside option if you wait to take a tight end, but I’d pair him with someone else like Dallas Goedert.
O.J. Howard (TB)
2020 ADP: TE24
2019 Rank: TE29
2019 Rank + Regression: TE26 (+3)
Howard busted on his TE1 ADP last season. But despite his disappointing fantasy performance, he tied his career-best in receptions, although he scored just once. As long as he can carve out a niche alongside Rob Gronkowski (which it sounds like he can) while building chemistry with Tom Brady (which it sounds like he has), Howard could surprise some people in 2020.
Howard’s RECTD% was the lowest among this year’s top-24 tight ends. Our model projects a positive regression of almost two percentage points (so at least one more touchdown), and it could be even high with Brady under center. Also, it’s worth noting that Howard had never caught fewer than five touchdowns in a season before last year. He’s a terrific late-round flyer who could finish as a TE1 — grab him late in drafts where you can.
12 Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates for 2020
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.