Every year, players outkick their coverage and finish as top-10 options because of their high touchdown rates. And every following year, those same players get over-drafted because fantasy users expect them to produce the same numbers. Unfortunately, those people get burned because touchdown rates vary highly between seasons.

Fortunately, FantasyPros’ touchdown regression report can keep you from making this mistake. The tool allows you to investigate which players scored at an above-average rate, and it lets you adjust their performance back toward the mean.

Let’s take a look at some negative touchdown regression candidates for the 2020 season. All player rankings and ADPs are for leagues with PPR scoring!

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Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (BUF)
2020 ADP: QB7
2019 Rank: QB6
2019 Rank + Regression: QB11 (-5)

Allen rocked the fantasy world with his QB6 fantasy finish last year. The quarterback put up a whopping 29 scores — 20 with his arm, nine with his legs. While he also ran for eight scores in 2018, our model does not see this production as sustainable. Now that Zack Moss is in town, Buffalo should feature him at the goal line more often than Allen.

Allen ranked 21st in PATD% and eighth in RUTD% last year. So while his PATD% could regress positively, his RUTD% should drop considerably — more than enough to offset any gains through the air. The model would’ve expected some negative regression between 2018 and 2019, however, but Frank Gore’s inefficiency goal-line ineffectiveness may explain why Allen kept getting rushing scores.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
2020 ADP: QB19
2019 Rank: QB21
2019 Rank + Regression: QB27 (-6)

Despite only starting 10 games, Tannehill threw for 22 scores in 2019 — more than two per game. He even added four more on the ground. Yet the Titans attempted the second-fewest passes in the league last year, and there’s no reason to expect many changes with Derrick Henry back in the lineup.

Tannehill ranked second in PATD% and sixth in RUTD% among quarterbacks. That’s absolutely not sustainable. Sure, A.J. Brown is an exciting playmaker, but the Titans are a run-first team who should feature Henry to capitalize on his $50 million contract. Tennesse also lost tackle Jack Conklin in the offseason, and that could make it harder for them to score.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (TEN)
2020 ADP: RB6
2019 Rank: RB5
2019 Rank + Regression: RB8 (-3)

Henry is an elite running back. At six-foot-three and 238 pounds, he’s a linebacker who can run the football. His 79.2-point grade from ProFootballFocus puts him ahead of guys like Ezekiel Elliott (77.2) and Saquon Barkley (72.2). But last year marked a breakout performance for him — his 18 total touchdowns were six more than the year before — so he hasn’t proven that he can do this every year.

Henry had the fourth-highest RUTD% and the fourth-highest RECTD% for starting rushers. Assuming that regresses toward the mean, that spells a loss of 29.6 fantasy points. That would’ve been enough for three players to pass Henry in 2019. Henry’s ADP has not reflected this potential loss in value, and at RB6, he carries a bit more risk than fantasy drafters may anticipate.

Aaron Jones (GB) 
2020 ADP: RB14
2019 Rank: RB2
2019 Rank + Regression: RB5 (-3)

Jones exploded for the overall RB2 finish last season. He put up 19 total touchdowns on the year, and 16 of them came on the ground. For some perspective, that’s the same number as Derrick Henry and one more than Christian McCaffrey. He did this on 67 fewer attempts than Henry and 51 fewer than McCaffrey.

As a result, it’s no surprise that his RUTD% ranked first among all starting backs. It should tick down from 6.78 percent to 5.26 percent, and such a decrease means a loss of 25.9 fantasy points. And now with A.J. Dillon in town, it’s safe to predict that Jones won’t repeat as a high-end RB1. Jones’ RB14 ADP reflects this, however, so you don’t need to pass on him at his current price.

Raheem Mostert (SF)
2020 ADP: RB28
2019 Rank: RB26
2019 Rank + Regression: RB33 (-7)

Mostert is a polarizing figure this offseason. His RB28 ADP offers some great upside, but drafters should go in expecting some touchdown regression. He scored 10 regular-season touchdowns, eight of them on the ground, and two of them through the air. Kyle Shanahan is a run-first head coach, and the 49ers attempted the second-most rushing plays, so it’s a bit surprising to see him on the list.

That said, Mostert’s efficiency isn’t sustainable — his RECTD% and RUTD% both ranked second among starting running backs (Mark Ingram beat him in RECTD%, Aaron Jones in RUTD%). And since Mostert had never scored more than one touchdown in a season before, there are no offsetting stats to work with. Expect Shanahan to continue splitting the work among San Francisco’s different running backs, like Tevin Coleman, Jeffrey Wilson, and Jerick McKinnon.

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen (MIN)
2020 ADP: WR14
2019 Rank: WR64
2019 Rank + Regression: WR69 (-5)

It’s a little weird to label a guy who only played in 10 games a regression candidate. But that’s exactly what Thielen is as we enter 2020 — his 2019 fantasy value depended upon his six touchdowns, as he only caught 30 passes for 418 yards.

Thielen’s RECTD% ranked first among all starting receivers at 14.29 percent. That should regress by just under three percentage points, and it could seriously limit his value in what’s now a run-first offense. Sure, Stefon Diggs’ departure freed up 94 targets, but they drafted Justin Jefferson, signed Tajae Sharpe, and kept Bisi Johnson. Thielen just can’t keep scoring once every five catches — he didn’t even score once every 12 back in 2018! There’s too much risk here for me to consider buying Thielen at his ridiculously high ADP.

Cooper Kupp (LAR)
2020 ADP: WR15
2019 Rank: WR4
2019 Rank + Regression: WR7 (-3)

Kupp already regressed. After the first eight weeks of 2019, he ranked behind only Michael Thomas in total points scored. And while he ended the year as the WR4, he was the WR30 from Week 9 to Week 17. Ouch. Yet despite his fantasy struggles, Kupp continued to rattle off touchdowns through this span — he scored each week from Week 12 to Week 17.

Kupp’s RECTD% ranked 11th among starting receivers. While he got the minimum workload necessary to maintain his high touchdown rate, his usage dramatically declined as the year went on, and it should stay that low if the Rams opt to use more 12-personnel. Kupp is currently going as the WR15 in fantasy drafts despite these trends, and I’d urge you to take the cheaper Robert Woods instead.

A.J. Brown (TEN)
2020 ADP: WR16
2019 Rank: WR21
2019 Rank + Regression: WR25 (-4)

I have been sounding the alarm bells on Brown since January. Yes, he was an absolute stud in 2019, as he finished as the WR21 despite not starting most of the season. Brown caught eight touchdowns and added another on the ground to finish with nine total scores, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect him to keep up that pace. As I mentioned with Tannehill, the Titans attempted the second-fewest passes in 2019. The impact of this was clear in the playoffs, as Brown earned 10 targets over three games and failed to score.

Brown posted the second-highest RECTD% among starting receivers, and his RUTD% ranked third overall. He just can’t keep scoring this much on so few targets per game, so I think his WR16 ADP makes him a prime bust candidate for 2020. He’s a great player, but his current offense makes him nothing more than a high-risk fantasy WR3.

Marquise Brown (BAL)
2020 ADP: WR31
2019 Rank: WR46
2019 Rank + Regression: WR49 (-3)

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown got off to a scorching start to 2019 before he got hurt. He racked up 233 yards and two scores on 12 catches through the first two games, and he ended the year with seven total touchdowns on 46 receptions. After an offseason to get healthy, he’ll have to contend with newcomers Devin Duvernay and James Proche for work in Baltimore, although Mark Andrews will remain his biggest competition for targets.

Hollywood’s RECTD% ranked fourth among starting receivers. That 12.33 percent rate is bound to regress closer to 10.5 percent, and that should cost him some of his fantasy value. Although he may see more usage in 2020, his WR31 ADP is a bit optimistic, especially since the Ravens attempted the fewest passing plays in 2019.

Darius Slayton (NYG)
2020 ADP: WR43
2019 Rank: WR37
2019 Rank + Regression: WR41 (-4)

Slayton broke out despite going undrafted in most fantasy leagues last year. Injuries to Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley, and Sterling Shepard gave him ample time to shine, and he capitalized on it with eight receiving touchdowns on only 48 receptions. Unfortunately, he’ll have more competition this season if his teammates can stay healthy, so approach him with caution.

For starting receivers, Slayton had the fifth-highest RECTD%. He scored once every six catches, and that’s not something we can expect anyone to repeat between years. Unless he can get a stronger foothold in New York’s offense before September, you should pass on Slayton at his WR43 ADP and take the less risky Sterling Shepard at WR47 instead.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (BAL)
2019 Rank: TE5
2019 Rank + Regression: TE5 (0)
2020 ADP: TE4

I posted my anti-Andrews thread on Twitter a few days ago, and you can read it below. The gist is that he scored far too frequently (once every 6.4 catches), and fantasy drafters seem to be ignoring that fact.

Touchdown regression! I have been beating this drum since January.

Andrews scored once every 6.4 touches in 2019 — among TEs, only Darren Fells and Jared Cook scored more frequently.

For some perspective, Kittle scored every 17, Kelce every 19.4.https://t.co/VAMSEz0iCF

— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) August 14, 2020

Andrews’ RECTD% ranks seventh among all tight ends. That might not sound bad, but he’s the only top-five tight end whose fantasy production relied that much on touchdowns. Andrews supporters cite the offseason moves made by the Ravens as a cause for optimism, but I don’t buy it — Baltimore just doesn’t pass enough.

Unlike Hurst and Nick Boyle, Andrews didn't often play as a run-blocker.

The Ravens ran or threw 1036 times last year, and just 440 — 42% of those plays — were passes. And if Andrews' snap count increases for running plays, that raises his injury risk, not his ceiling.

— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) August 14, 2020

Ultimately, I don’t think Andrews is a bad fantasy option heading into 2020 — I just don’t think he’s as good as most people make him out to be.

Jared Cook (NO)
2019 Rank: TE7
2019 Rank + Regression: TE8 (-1)
2020 ADP: TE10

Cook had a strange 2019 season. He ranked as the TE11 through Week 12, only to play as the TE3 over the rest of the year to finish as the TE7. An unsustainable number of scoring plays propelled Cook’s late-season rise, however, as he crossed the plane five times on 14 catches. For the year, he totaled nine touchdowns on 43 receptions.

Cook’s RECTD% ranked fifth among all tight ends, as Darren Fells, Kyle Rudolph, Will Dissly, and Ryan Griffin all scored more frequently. But none of those guys are seen as fantasy-relevant, unlike Cook, who surely won’t see as much work with a healthy Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders in town. Cook is an easy fade for me in all formats.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.