PredictionStrike is one of the more interesting options in the DFS field. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, it’s structured like the stock market instead. Players’ share prices are tied to their projections, so your goal is to have your players exceed expectations for each game.
You incur a good amount of risk when investing — if your player does not meet projections, they will lose a percentage of their share value. You won’t profit if a player fails to meet expectations, and that makes the format all the more difficult.
To win, you must identify which players are due for above-average usage. Next, see if PredictionStrike’s projections still make them a valuable play — or if they’ll have their hands in our pockets if that player doesn’t have a truly monster game.
Let’s take a look at the top projection-based plays for today’s contest.
Check out PredictionStrike’s sports-based stock market
Joe Harris (BKN – SG, SF): $1.22/share
While Caris LeVert is the Nets player I was targeting, his high projections make him a non-starter for tonight’s contest. The site wisely expects Caris to have a monster game, but that leaves us with very little margin for error. Joe Harris could have been in for a monster game himself, but with a chucker like Jamal Crawford joining the team, we may need to temper expectations a bit.
At $1.22 a share with a modest projection, however, Harris is someone to add to your portfolio. Jamal Crawford and Jarrett Allen were the other considerations on the Nets, but Crawford still doesn’t have a projection assigned to him (and is priced at an outlandish $13.91), while Allen’s projections are set high enough to make him a fade.
Rui Hachimura (WAS – PF, SF): $0.57/share
PredictionStrike always finds a way to mess with a good thing. Rui Hachimura is set to go off tonight for a Washington Wizards team that will be without leading scorers Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. The line setters at PredictionStrike not only set his point total considerably higher than it can be found at sportsbooks, but they also set his rebounds over 2.5 boards higher.
With no way to profit off players failing to meet their projections, the whole goal as a PredictionStrike player is to find the instances where they may have set the line too low. This is definitely not one of those cases. However, at just .57 cents, Rui is worth adding to your portfolio, even if it’s only for a handful of shares. The projections are not going to get any better here, so you are likely going to have to dump him after this contest. Just be sure to purchase enough shares to make up for the service fee, but not enough to jeopardize your portfolio’s health based on an inflated projection.
DeMar DeRozan (SAS – SG, SF): $4.09/share
DeMar DeRozan, like Joe Harris and Rui Hachimura, is listed here due to the increased opportunity he will be afforded in the bubble. LaMarcus Aldridge is injured and has been ruled out for the bubble, which makes DeRozan the de facto top option. He may cede work to the team’s younger talent, or be on a minute cap once the Spurs are mathematically eliminated, but there is every reason to believe that Coach Popovich wants to win for now.
The projection at PredictionStrike isn’t very favorable (they are not in the business of losing money), especially when the rebound and assists numbers are added to the equation. That said, DeRozan should see a high enough usage rate to exceed the projected fantasy points. His price means that you may only be willing to sacrifice the cost it takes for a few shares, but it also means that a modest increase in his share price could be more impactful than what we get from options with lower price tags, even at a double-digit ownership share.
Jakob Poeltl (SAS – C): $1.41/share
Jakob Poeltl should be in for a monster game. As I mentioned above, LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out for the bubble, and that makes Poeltl the team’s top true big. Trey Lyles is also missing, so players like Rudy Gay may also spend some time as a small-ball center.
However, Poeltl’s number has been set low enough to make him our top target for tonight’s slate of games. He may be a one-time play as the line setters at PredictionStrike are sure to adjust, but his projection screams value, and he’s worth divesting of other assets to target. In fact, I sold some shares of Jonathan Taylor (who I invested in after the NBA shutdown) to put some extra love on Poeltl. I don’t expect him to smash his projection, but it seems like almost a given that, barring foul trouble, he’ll exceed the surprisingly low fantasy point projection total PredictionStrike has assigned to him.
Check out our introduction to PredictionStrike
Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.