Michael Moore | Wed, Jul 22nd 2020, 7:06am EDT

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: How to Handle a Middle Pick (2020)

Drafting in the middle of the first round can be a polarizing proposition. Some prefer to pick halfway through each round so they don’t go long stretches without adding to their roster. Others, however, prefer doubling up on players at either end.

The mock draft below represents the former — picking in the middle of a 12-team draft (sixth overall) with standard scoring. Using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard, I was able to identify which players would be there and, more importantly, which ones would not. Here are the results.

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Round 1

1.6 – Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
With running backs representing four of the first five picks, the top options dried up quick. However, I was pleasantly surprised that Alvin Kamara was still available, and the Draft Wizard tool agreed. Even though I’m mock drafting a standard-scoring league, Kamara does enough damage in the passing game to overcome the absence of points for receptions.

The only real other option here was Dalvin Cook, but his 2020 fantasy value is trending in the wrong direction. After seeing double-digit carries in the first 11 games of the 2019 season, he had less in three of the Vikings’ last five games. There’s also the long odds of him repeating last year’s 13 rushing touchdowns. Depending on how strongly you feel about injury history — he has yet to turn in a 16- or even 15-game season — and his current holdout, it would make the case for him even worse.

Rounds 2 and 3

2.7 – Mike Evans (WR – TB)
3.6 – Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

Admittedly, I’m more bullish on Mike Evans than others, but how can you not be? He’s averaged 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns per season across his six-year career and has never had fewer than 1,000 yards in any season. He’s as close to a lock as there is when it comes to fantasy scoring. Not to mention the huge dropoff after Evans at receiver, if I hadn’t picked one here. I would have been left to choose between Allen Robinson or Odell Beckham, both of whom are good but not nearly as consistent as Evans has been.

In the third, with my top back and receiver squared away, I went after a top-three tight end in Mark Andrews. After topping 500 receiving yards in a decent 2018 rookie season (for a tight end), Andrews quickly became the top target for NFL MVP Lamar Jackson last year. He led the Ravens in every receiving statistic possible — targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Andrews has established himself as a Tier 1 fantasy tight end along with Travis Kelce and George Kittle. In hindsight, I could have picked up fellow Tier 1 tight end Zach Ertz in the next round while taking another back or receiver in the third, but the deed is done, and Andrews is my guy.

Rounds 4 and 5

4.7 – James Conner (RB – PIT)
5.6 – Tyler Lockett (WR -SEA)

While Conner and Lockett aren’t being drafted as an RB1 or WR1, respectively, they have turned in such seasons in the past. Injuries took a big chunk of Conner’s 2019 season and dwarfed any fantasy value he had in 2018, when he totaled nearly 1,500 yards and scored 13 touchdowns. Now with a full offseason to recover and Pittsburgh viewing Conner as a featured runner, the 2020 season is a prime opportunity for Conner to be an RB1 again. I was able to snag him as the 21st back off the board.

Lockett can have some huge games, but also silent ones. For example, he had four 100-yard games in 2019 — as many as he had his entire career heading into 2019 — but also went a month without topping 50 yards or scoring a touchdown. But you’re not relying on Lockett for week-to-week consistency like you would expect from your top receiver. You need big games from the secondary players to win a championship, and Lockett fits the bill.

Rounds 6 and 7

6.7 – D.J. Chark (WR – JAC)
7.6 – Tom Brady (QB – TB)

D.J. Chark was the 27th wide receiver taken, but he’s a high-end flex, and one of the few receivers left who’s a top target on his own team. Chark burst on the scene last year, turning in a 1,000-yard season and finishing as a WR2 and hardly getting drafted at all. He’s now had a whole offseason (and maybe more) to develop a rapport with quarterback Gardner Minshew and new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Meanwhile, the Jaguars failed to bring in a significant challenger for targets, so expect Chark to put up WR2 numbers again.

I’ll admit I got a little panicky with the quarterback run happening before this pick. Eight teams took quarterbacks in the previous 19 picks, resulting in my team being the second-to-last to draft one. With that in mind, Tom Brady was the best option left. It’s not the worst thing in the world though, as Brady will have the likes of Evans (see above), Chris Godwin, old friend Rob Gronkowski, and more at his disposal. Remember, turnover-prone Jameis Winston put up 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in coach Bruce Arians’ system last year. What could Brady do?

Rounds 8 and 9

8.7 Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
9.6 – Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)

Now with the starting lineup complete (I’m not counting defenses or kickers, and you shouldn’t either), I can start filling out my bench. Finding consistent points is key in the early rounds, as those picks are so much more valuable. But the later rounds are where you can find bargains and, potentially, league-winners. Go big.

Brandin Cooks is a perfect lottery ticket. He doesn’t seem like a sexy pick, but consider he’s now the top receiving option in Houston for one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league. With DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets no longer in Houston, it leaves a lot of fantasy stats out there. Cooks, who is already working out with Deshaun Watson, is a prime candidate to see most of them and potentially put up WR1 numbers.

In Phillip Lindsay, we have another bargain who will start the season on my bench. It’s rare that a 26-year-old running back coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons is benched on his own team, but that’s the expectation after the Broncos signed Melvin Gordon. However, Denver will be hard-pressed to leave Lindsay and his career 4.9 yards per carry on the bench for too long. He should see plenty of touches. Plus, Gordon is virtually guaranteed to miss a couple of games per year; he’s only played in all 16 games once in his five-year career. I’ll gladly take Lindsay’s explosiveness as my RB3.

Rounds 10 and 11

10.07 – Preston Williams (WR – MIA)
11.06 – Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI)

More home run picks with Preston Williams and Chase Edmonds. Williams just scratched the surface of his fantasy potential in his rookie campaign, totaling 428 yards in half a season before tearing his ACL. If you were to extrapolate that out over 16 games, Williams would have finished the season as at least a WR3. It should also be noted that the receivers taken right before him (Anthony Miller, Jamison Crowder) couldn’t break 1,000 yards last year despite playing all season, whereas Williams’ lack of fantasy stats were due solely to injury.

Edmonds had one shining moment in 2019, rushing for 126 yards and three touchdowns in Week 7 after starter David Johnson went down with an injury. Of course, Edmonds also went down with an injury shortly after, which paved the way for Kenyan Drake to take the starting job. Edmonds should still carve out a role, even as a backup, in the high-powered Arizona offense — potentially with more targets to grab –after averaging 5.1 yards per carry last season.

Round 12 and 13

12.07 – Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)
13.06 – Hayden Hurst (TE – BAL)

Whether or not you should draft a backup quarterback or tight end is a matter of debate. I like to take them, assuming there are quality options, because you just never know when the injury bug will hit your team.

If he plays a full 16-game schedule, Carson Wentz can easily put up QB1 numbers like he did last year, throwing for 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. Of course, that was also the first time he completed 16 games in three seasons. But as my backup whom I hopefully won’t need, there aren’t many better options. It also means I might have been able to skip Brady in the seventh round in lieu of a high-end backup at receiver or running back. But hindsight is always 20/20.

In Hurst, it’s all about the situation. The former first-round pick acquired by Atlanta (along with a fourth-round pick) for a second and fifth-round pick will be asked to replace Pro Bowler Austin Hooper and his 97 targets. If Hurst can see even 75% of that, he’ll be on the low-end TE1 radar while being a quality backup on this team.

Rounds 14 and 15

14.07 – Bears (DEF)
15.06 – Matt Prater (K – DET)

If you don’t save the defense and kicker for your last picks, you’re doing it wrong. With relatively low scoring coupled with complete randomness on a week-to-week basis, it’s not worth taking either one over a running back or receiver who could potentially be a winning lottery ticket. Take the best available at the end and be done with it. You can always drop them if they don’t work out.

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Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @DLF_Moore.

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