This is not a drill. I repeat: This. Is. Not. A. Drill.

Baseball is back.

Sure, it’s late July. Yes, there are some weird rules. No, not every player is willing to partake. At the end of the day, we can still set all of this aside because games will be played. Which means that fantasy lineups need to be set.

It’s April in July. Opening Day starters have been announced, and we need to weigh the impact of facing an ace on Thursday or Friday but then playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark a few days later. Everything is on the table, and it’s heightened by the condensed schedule.

Each team will play 60 games in a sprint through the regular season. With most teams scheduled for a whopping ten matchups through the official “Week 1” of the season, we have everything you need in order to get off to a hot start. After all, there has never been a fantasy baseball season in which a “hot start” was imperative more than 2020.

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Notable Matchups

Colorado Rockies at Rangers (3), at Athletics (2), vs. Padres (3)
Volume is certainly going to be key in 2020, and the Colorado Rockies are the rare example of a team that doesn’t have it in Week 1. Only eight games on the schedule tie them with two other teams for the fewest in that span. Why, then, should we start our Rockies hitters? Look at the venues in which each game is played. Oakland is the only area of concern for bats, but the other two locations are the hitter-haven of Colorado — and against a team that plays in a pitcher’s park, which bodes well for offense in the matchup — and Texas.

Texas will be a target of ours for the foreseeable future.

The Rangers are opening a new ballpark, and the outfield dimensions are comparatively tiny. We might see double-digit runs in all three games between the Rockies and Rangers, and it’s enough to use hitters from Colorado even with a lighter schedule.

Boston Red Sox vs. Orioles (3), vs. Mets (2), at Mets (2), at Yankees (3)
In terms of direct matchups, the Boston Red Sox lost some upside with the likelihood that they will face at least one of Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole — although they might not face both. Still, a full ten games with the first half at home make Boston hitters a clear group to target. This is because the first matchup of the season is against Baltimore.

Maybe the Orioles are improved. Maybe they won’t regularly get embarrassed. Maybe. Their pitching still isn’t where it needs to be, and their All-Star from last year who was slated to start on Opening Day is already injured. Red Sox hitters should deliver nicely in Week 1.

Houston Astros vs. Mariners (4), vs. Dodgers (2), at Angels (3)
There won’t be a team in 2020 facing more scrutiny than the Houston Astros, and it’s why Houston is probably begging for the season to start. Baseball is a distraction, even if it is from other baseball-related incidents. The Astros need to get on the field and start hitting before they can move away from their recent past.

Thankfully for the Astros, they will play host to the Mariners for a full four-game set. Seattle’s pitching does not strike fear into the heart of opponents, and Houston can set the tone for 2020 early by pounding a weaker opponent. The schedule — especially for hitters — gets tougher with both Los Angeles teams following Seattle, but the Angels will probably be on the back-end of their rotation at that point, which gives Houston a slight edge.

Miami Marlins at Phillies (3), vs. Orioles (2), at Orioles (2), vs. Nationals (3)
Before you scoff, look at what the Miami Marlins have ahead of them for the first “Week” of the season. That is, a full ten games in which Miami travels to the hitter-friendly ballpark of Philadelphia and four games against the Orioles. The Marlins might be bad, but so are the Orioles. If wins are on the schedule, they might be directly in the middle of the first week. Finally, Miami wraps up Week 1 with three games at home against the Nationals. Even if the Marlins face Max Scherzer at that point, they probably get two other games against the back-end of Washington’s rotation. All told, Miami’s lineup has tremendous sleeper potential to start the season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Marlins (3), vs. Yankees (2), at Yankees (2), at Blue Jays (3)
If Miami made this list, then the Philadelphia Phillies must be mentioned as well. They obviously share the same first series of the season — again, in a hitter-friendly park that ranks highest in home runs according to FantasyPros’ park factors — but they also get two more home games before traveling to another hitter’s park in Yankee Stadium. Philadelphia has the volume, at least one favorable matchup, and seven games in venues that benefit hitters.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Tigers (3), vs. Cubs (4), at Tigers (3)
I could basically copy and paste everything that I wrote about the Phillies and apply it to the Cincinnati Reds. They have seven games in a hitter-friendly ballpark — Cincinnati’s own ballpark, for what that’s worth — and at least one positive matchup against a perceived “bad” team. In this case, the Reds have two positive matchups.

Many — including myself — have landed on Cincinnati as a team ready to break out, and they could easily get off to a hot start by beating up the Tigers in six-of-their-first-ten games. Gain exposure to the Reds now before their asking prices start to rise.

Hitter Notes

Mike Trout (OF – LAA)
I won’t waste time convincing anyone to use Mike Trout in the first week of any season, but he does have some interesting notes worth sharing. For starters, many have mentioned that Trout will miss time in August due to the birth of his first child. This is likely, and it should lead to the Los Angeles Angels leaning on their superstar as much as possible before his eventual paternity leave. The expectation here is that Trout doesn’t miss random time now, as the organization can prepare accordingly.

The other piece of information worth sharing is Trout’s surprisingly bad numbers on Opening Day. Over the last seven seasons, Trout is only 7-for-31 on Opening Day. The good news? Three of those seven hits were home runs.

Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
At the time of this writing, reports are swirling that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mookie Betts are closing in on a long-term deal. Whether or not it happens, Betts is still the newest member of a “win-now” team looking to make noise immediately. The Dodgers specifically acquired Betts for 2020 and almost had to deal with losing him before he played a single game in Los Angeles.

Betts is a star, and he’s either playing for a new contract or playing with a new contract freshly inked. Either way, we’ll see one of the game’s best hitters in a deep lineup with added motivation. It will be interesting to watch how that translates to his numbers.

Gavin Lux (SS – LAD)
Gavin Lux will not start the 2020 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his fantasy stock has plummeted. While this surprised many, the writing was on the proverbial wall that Lux was not necessarily in a position to thrive. Despite tearing up the Minor League system en route to his debut in 2019, Lux started all but two of his games batting sixth or later in the Dodgers’ lineup. He was expendable for the time being, and fantasy owners will have to decide if they can devote a bench spot to Lux in hopes of an eventual call-up.

David Dahl (OF – COL)
We already touched on the Colorado Rockies’ hitters, as a whole, but David Dahl gets a special writeup on his own based on the possibility of him leading off when the season starts. Dahl has carried tremendous potential for years, but injuries have been an issue. Finally healthy, Dahl is not only in a position to thrive, but he’s at the front of a lineup that should explode for runs early in the season.

Nick Solak (OF – TEX)
Nick Solak had won over the Texas Rangers to the point that they were looking for ways to get him into their lineup. While an injury to Willie Calhoun is not good news, it does open the door for Solak. In fact, Solak was immediately named as Calhoun’s replacement. Solak was a sleeper entering 2020, and he now has a path to enough volume that could provide an excellent return on investment.

Trent Grisham (OF – SD)
A once highly-touted prospect with the Brewers, Trent Grisham debuted in 2019 and had less-than-stellar numbers. A change of scenery not only opens the door for him to deliver on his former potential, but it also slides him into a premier role. If he is, indeed, batting second in the San Diego Padres’ lineup, he has outstanding protection from Manny Machado and would be batting behind Fernando Tatis Jr. Don’t forget that the Padres close out “Week 1” with three games in Colorado.

Pitcher Notes

Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
It should surprise no one that Clayton Kershaw will toe the rubber to start a season once again, and his numbers on prior Opening Days are downright insane. In eight starts, Kershaw has allowed a total of six earned runs and struck out 59 batters. His ERA is a minuscule 1.05.

Kershaw has another sneaky advantage, and it’s one that I have been highlighting repeatedly in recent articles. The Los Angeles Dodgers have changed the “batter’s eye” portion of their stadium, and Max Muncy cited it as the reason he didn’t see a pitch that ultimately hit him. If the “batter’s eye” is this much of a problem for hitters, we could see early-season dominance from pitchers in Los Angeles. Kershaw might actually lower his Opening Day ERA.

Johnny Cueto (SP – SF)
This is as simple and straightforward as it gets. If Kershaw gets a boost from the Dodgers’ “batter’s eye,” then so does his opponent on Opening Day. Johnny Cueto carries sneaky value for pitching in the same ballpark that should require an adjustment period for hitters. An argument can be made that starting a pitcher against the Dodgers’ lineup is dangerous. Said argument is currently not valid. Until we can see proof that Dodgers Stadium won’t negatively impact hitters, we should pounce on any opportunity to start an undervalued pitcher. This begins with Cueto.

Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
When we first prepared for a 2020 fantasy baseball season, we were contemplating if Justin Verlander would miss time due to an injury. Now, we not only have Verlander scheduled to start on Opening Day, but he does so in an extremely favorable matchup.

Verlander will face the Mariners at home on Friday, and he has performed well against Seattle over the past few years. Since 2016, Verlander holds a clean 3.00 ERA against the Mariners with 89 strikeouts in 72 innings. Conveniently, Seattle ranked tenth-lowest in runs-per-game and second in team strikeouts in 2019. Verlander should begin 2020 on a good note, especially if his offense helps to set the tone.

Week 1 Hitter Matchup Ratings

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.