We have the biggest slate of the year tonight, with twelve games on the featured slate on DraftKings. There is lots to comb through here, so let’s get to going!

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Coors Field

Since it’s the first Coors Field game of the year, I wanted to dedicate some space in my post to talk about it. If you are new to MLB DFS, you might not be aware of just how much impact Coors Field has on the game. Last season, hitters averaged a sum of 170 DraftKings points per game in Coors Field (by this I mean both offenses combined). The league average for hitter DraftKings points scored per game is around 135. Comparatively, hitters only averaged 118 DraftKings points in games played in San Francisco. The second-highest total was 155 (in the Rangers’ home ballpark). Coors Field hugely inflates offensive production.

Because of this, you will see price tags skyrocket for hitters playing in Coors. This is perfectly justified. Today we see Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS – SDP) with a $6,000 price tag, we also see Trevor Story (SS – COL), Nolan Arenado (3B – COL), and Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL) all coming in at $5,500 or above. Those are the studs of the bunch, but you also see exorbitant price tags for less than great players like Wil Myers (OF – SDP) who comes in at $4,600 after having an average salary of $3,500 for the first week of the season. The prices may seem a little crazy, but once you realize how big of an advantage Coors Field gives to hitters – you realize they probably aren’t.

That said,  Jon Gray (SP – COL) takes the mound for the Rockies tonight. He has really been the one pitcher that seems to know how to pitch in Coors Field. For his career, he has a 4.36 ERA at home and a 4.52 mark on the road. Hitters have hit .265 on him at home and .258 on the road. He allows the same amount of home runs as well with a 1.1 HR/9 rate both home and away. These are respectable numbers and there is no reason to believe that he will fall victim to Coors Field in 2020 after five years in a Rockies uniform. I would probably wait until tomorrow to pay big bucks for the Padres.

Things look a little better on the Rockies side, as Garrett Richards is not accustomed to Coors Field like Gray. In fact, Richards has never made a start in Colorado. He is an otherwise talented pitcher, always posting solid numbers when healthy – and he made a very strong start to begin his 2020 campaign. Chances are things don’t go super well for Richards tonight, but I would feel much better paying these huge price tags against a pitcher that is a little less talented than Richards. David Dahl (OF – COL) at $4,800 sticks out as being a bit too cheap if he’s leading off, but otherwise, I am probably off the Rockies since we have so many other good hitting spots to attack.

Alright, that’s the Coors Field run down, the rest of this post will ignore that game entirely.

Pitchers

Darvish is the cream of the crop tonight. He had a shaky start to 2020, giving up six hits and three earned runs in four innings against the Brewers. More importantly, however, he struck out five and didn’t walk anybody. If Darvish can continue to limit walks, he will have some monstrous games this season. The Pirates are one of the lightest hitting offenses in the league to boot – so I’m putting my money on Darvish to be the top-scoring pitcher tonight.

If you want to match Darvish’s upside at much lower ownership, Clevinger is an interesting play. He will certainly be less popular tonight in his brutal matchup against the Twins, but teammate Shane Bieber showed that the matchup isn’t always that important; nearly eclipsing 50 DraftKings points against them last night. Clevinger has the stuff to put up a huge score against anybody, he is a great play for tournaments tonight.

Mike Minor has the nut match-up in San Francisco tonight, and while his price tag is a bit high for his relatively unimpressive strikeout rate, he is a very safe option tonight in that ballpark against that weak lineup. Luis Castillo’s price is a bit outrageous for a matchup with the Tigers, and while Castillo comes with a bit more risk given his 10% walk rate last year, you don’t often find a 29% strikeout rate at $8,000 against the Tigers – he is probably the best salary considered play of the night.

If you want to stack Coors, you will probably have to punt away a pitcher spot, and Taijuan Walker at least has some strikeout upside at $5,200 – he could luck into 15-20 DraftKings points, but it is about as risky a play as you can make.

Now we will go through each position and focus on price considered value plays, and then get to the expensive studs later on.

Catcher/First Base

I am not making any catcher recommendations here, as you can see. In general, the best strategy seems to just be to punt the position and take advantage of one of those $2,000-$2,500 guys that will start tonight. That gives you a lot of wiggle room in other positions.

Anthony Rizzo is my favorite price considered play tonight, he is inexplicably priced $500 below his season average thus far, coming in at $4,600 against a pitcher that was torched by left-handed batters last year. Williams gave up a .385 wOBA and a 1.73 WHIP to lefties last year while striking out just 13% of the ones he faced. Rizzo is an astounding play tonight.

If you don’t quite have the money for Rizzo, Choi is a nice high-floor option if leading off for the Rays tonight, as Alex Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the league the last few years. One step further down would be Abreu at $4,200 against the rookie Bubic. That price is a touch too cheap for a guy hitting in the heart of a solid batting order, and the White Sox have a really high Vegas implied run tonight of 5.7 runs.

Second Base

Three very strange price tags here. The Yankees have the highest non-Coors Vegas run total right now, so getting the lead-off man for $4,100 is a steal.

Moustakas is just ridiculously priced at $3,600 – his average for the first week was $4,300 – and I’m not sure Spencer Turnbull is a good enough pitcher to justify that kind of discount. In fact, Turnbull posted a pretty uninspiring 19% strikeout rate and a 1.58 WHIP against lefties last year.

Peraza is also a very good price-considered option as he should lead-off once again against the lefty Montgomery. He is not a Hall of Fame bat by any stretch of the imagination, but he is much better than this price tag suggests if he’s leading off.

Third Base

The Astros are very cheap against Andriese tonight. Andriese is no scrub, but he is not a pitcher that justifies DraftKings dropping all Astros salaries by $500 for. Take advantage of that discount on Bregman tonight.

The Indians have strangely been priced down for the first two games of this Twins series. Dobnak is not a complete scrub pitcher, but he is a far cry from an ace – so Ramirez makes a great play with his power/speed combination at $4,600.

Moncada occupies huge upside near the top of a White Sox lineup that projects to do well tonight.

Yandy Diaz is a strong contact bat against a pitcher that really struggles to get strikeouts, so while he doesn’t have huge power upside – he is a nice cheap cash game option.

David Fletcher has a tough match-up with McCullers, but with his contact ability, there is big-time runs upside at the top of that Angels lineup if McCullers has one of his patented blow-ups tonight.

Shortstop

Maybe Bogaerts should go in the “studs” category tonight, but checking in at under $5,000 seems a bit too cheap for him in Yankees Stadium against a lefty. Montgomery is a fine pitcher but has trouble fooling right-handed hitters, and Bogaerts is a strong contact bat with power and steals upside.

Lindor is the same story as J-Ram, just too cheap against Dobnak, and Anderson is the same situation as Moncada, and he should lead-off once again tonight for the Sox.

Outfield

Judge has homered in back-to-back games now, and while that doesn’t really mean much to me, the price staying at $4,600 makes no sense. He now returns to the homer-happy Yankees Stadium where he has a great shot at making it three games in a row with a round-tripper. His outfield counterpart Aaron Hicks finds himself in the same great spot, but possibly a better matchup given his dexterity. Weber gave up a 2.5 home runs per nine innings last year against lefties – that’s a big fat yikes! Hicks is a little expensive, but I’ll buy into that if he’s in the top five of the lineup.

We’ve already talked about Trevor Williams’ struggles against lefties, so this is a great night to take a stab at Schwarber.

Then we have two price tags that are really hard to understand. Brantley has been dirt cheap all year, I just don’t see a reason not to play him at that price against a non-elite pitcher in Andriese. Akiyama is also much too cheap as a left-handed lead-off hitter against Turnbull. You’ll have to keep an eye on the lineups there as the Reds have been shuffling things up a bit.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL) $5,600: This is a very aggressive price on Freeman, but the match-up with Porcello justifies it. Porcello posted a 1.43 WHIP and a 5.18 xFIP last year while allowing 1.6 HR/9. The Braves are primed for a bust out tonight, but they do not come cheap.
• Ronald Acuna (OF – ATL) $5,500: Yeah he’s off to a miserable start and the price really hasn’t dropped much, but if you have some money to spend, Acuna should still be viewed as the most electric fantasy player in the game with his ridiculous power/speed combination. He can go off for 30 DraftKings points in any match-up, and this spot against Rick Porcello doesn’t shouldn’t scare anybody.
• J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS) $5,200: The lefties just keep coming for Martinez, as he faces another southpaw in Montgomery tonight. He has not had a good start to the year despite constantly facing bad lefties, but the two-homer game is coming – I promise you. The guy posted a .539 wOBA against lefties last year, which is just a ludicrous number. I will continue to play him against lefties while everybody else jumps off.
• Brandon Lowe (2B – TB) $4,900: I know, I know – it’s weird to put Lowe in the “studs” category. I am viewing this as more of a “probably overpriced but worth it anyways” section. Lowe hits the ball really, really hard when he is making contact (which he doesn’t do a ton with a 35% strikeout rate last year) – so he becomes appealing when facing a pitcher that doesn’t get a ton of whiffs. That is exactly the situation tonight against Alex Cobb, so Lowe could be worth this tag if he’s slotted in that #2 spot in the lineup again.
• Gary Sanchez (C – NYY) $4,700: As I said earlier, I don’t think it’s a great idea to spend this kind of cheddar at the catcher position, but if you’re going to do it – Sanchez is the guy when he’s playing at home.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Blake Snell (SP – TB) $10,800: The match-up with the Orioles is tempting, but Snell was limited to just 46 pitches in his last outing, and he has really been erratic early on. He had lots of trouble throwing strikes in Summer Camp and walked two batters and gave up three hits in his two innings of work last Sunday against the Blue Jays. The pitch count takes away too much of the ceiling to justify paying five figures for Snell tonight.
• Dallas Keuchel (SP – CHW) $7,300: Strikeouts are king on DraftKings, and Keuchel just does not bring enough of them to the table for a $7,300 pitcher. He had a good real-life outing in his first start, earning the win in a 5.1 innings, two earned run performance – but he struck out just one batter. You are never going to get the 30+ DraftKings point game from a guy with such a lowe strikeout rate, you’ll be best served to just scratch him off your list.
• Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY) $5,700: Stanton could easily hit two dongs and make me eat my words here, but I’m just not sure why you would pay $5,700 for Stanton when Judge is at $4,600. No problem if you want to play both of them and stack the Yankees, but at an individual level I think this price tag for Stanton is not justified at all – give me Acuna or J.D. over him tonight.
• Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) $5,600: Gallen had a brutal outing in his first start of the year, but he remains a very talented pitcher that does not allow much hard contact at all. So far in Gallen’s career, he has a .304 xwOBA allowed, a 29% strikeout rate, and a home run per nine innings rate of just one. There may be walk problems, but you don’t pay $5,600 for a hitter and hope for two walks.
• Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD): $5,400: Same story as Betts here, I am off the Dodgers tonight.

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