If you do your own research and prepare rankings for fantasy football, you’ll almost certainly land on some players being your guys. It’s inevitable. They’re the players who you find yourself significantly higher on than the masses on for whatever reason.
The specific idea of planting a flag in those players as yours is a concept I’m borrowing from Footballguys co-owner, analyst, and podcaster Sigmund Bloom. He’s frequently asked the pundits who have appeared on his podcast to plant a flag in their guy(s), so his particular terminology serves as the motivation for the topic of this piece. Below, a pair of receivers and a tight end stand out as players who I’m going to be all over in traditional season-long leagues and have already drafted frequently in best-ball formats. All three players will be familiar faces to those who’ve been reading my fantasy football pieces this offseason, but this serves as another opportunity to pound the table for selecting them in fantasy drafts for the 2020 season.
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Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): ADP — 59.5, WR26
While McLaurin’s not even being drafted as a WR2 (top-24 wideout) in point per reception (PPR) formats, I view him as a fringe WR1 and would be content pairing him with another high-end WR2. He’s coming off of an excellent rookie season. In fact, it was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest-graded season for a rookie receiver since 2014.
Terry McLaurin: highest-graded rookie WR since 2014.
– 86.5 PFF grade
– 50 catches for a 1D/TDBoth the most among rookies pic.twitter.com/rEtShMyGcs
— PFF (@PFF) June 8, 2020
Looking at where he stacked up against fellow rookie receivers in the last decade, McLaurin checks in well in another measure. Among rookie receivers since 2010 who were targeted at least 80 times, McLaurin’s 9.88 yards per target ranked as eighth-best, according to Pro-Football-Reference’s Play Index Tool.
McLaurin also passes the tape test. Matt Harmon of Yahoo! sports graded him in the 89th percentile in success rate versus man coverage and the 93rd percentile versus press coverage.
Confident if everything comes together Terry McLaurin can be a star.
– 76% success rate vs. man coverage (89th percentile)
– 79.7% success rate vs. press (93rd percentile.
– Excellent across the route tree.Purchase access to all RP data in the UDK here:https://t.co/9lAJrOQs8b pic.twitter.com/NPgjs3q2PB
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 4, 2020
To add further perspective to McLaurin’s degree of success against man coverage, it ranked 34th best since Harmon started charting wideouts in 2014, according to the following tweet from him.
Here are the Top-35 WR seasons I've charted in #ReceptionPerception's success rate vs. man coverage metric through its six year history (2014-2019).
Get full access to 2019 RP data in the UDK here: https://t.co/xDBZweVsXq pic.twitter.com/T9qCHjhsag
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 16, 2020
Interestingly, PFF graded his work against press coverage as below average, as you can see in the forthcoming tweet from Dwain McFarland of Establish the Run.
Working on #Redskins 2020 projections.
Quick tidbit based on @PFF data:
Terry F1 McLaurin:
vs no press: 12.6 yards per target, 78% catch rate (above NFL avgs) ?
vs press: 6.4 YPT, 42% catch rate (well below NFL avgs) ❄️
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) June 24, 2020
If you scroll through the thread, you’ll see someone tagged Harmon to ask him to explain McFarland’s tweet. As Harmon pointed out, traditional stats like that have some pitfalls, as they bring the quarterback’s play into the equation. As McFarland points out, the “whole situation” matters for fantasy in the exchange. That’s true, and McLaurin’s fantasy output in 2020 will be greatly aided if Dwayne Haskins takes a step forward.
Even with a rookie Haskins playing in nine games (seven starts) and musical chair at the quarterback position resulting in McLaurin catching passes from Case Keenum and Colt McCoy as well, the rookie receiver finished 25th in PPR fantasy points at the position during the standard fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 16), per our Fantasy Football Leaders page. It’s baffling to me that he’s being drafted a spot lower than his PPR scoring finish last year. I’ll gladly reach at least a round earlier than his ADP to make sure I land him in fantasy leagues.
Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL): ADP — 109.0, TE11
Hurst’s offseason buzz is starting to be reflected in his ADP. He’s now being drafted as a starting tight end in 12-team PPR formats. Still, I’d gladly invest in him as a top-10 option with a top-100 pick. I first analyzed why I’m a believer in Hurst this year as part of a best-ball piece highlighting quarterbacks and tight ends I’m targeting in that format, and the analysis in that piece applies to traditional season-long leagues, too. Additionally, I gushed about him as one of my two favorite late-round targets in the Tight End Drafting Strategy article that I penned in early June when Hurst’s ADP was 132.3.
Even with him shooting up draft boards, I’m still on board. In the linked pieces, I largely discussed Hurst’s efficiency to date on a small sample, his climb to the top spot on the depth chart with his new team instead of playing second fiddle to Mark Andrews, and his move from the most run-heavy team to one of the league’s most pass-heavy teams. Unbeknownst to me when gushing about him previously, Hurst has also been extremely sure-handed. Yes, drops can be overblown when analyzing pass-catchers, but it’s rather impressive that Hurst is credited with only one drop through his first two seasons, per PFF.
New #Falcons TE Hayden Hurst:
1 dropped pass in first 2 NFL seasons pic.twitter.com/nPJfVjZCS6
— PFF ATL Falcons (@PFF_Falcons) June 18, 2020
For those who enjoy visuals, check out this spectacular one-handed grab from his time in college.
Hayden Hurst with the white hot focus of 1000 suns. pic.twitter.com/UZvsMD3u2c
— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) January 19, 2018
Also, while offseason quotes should be taken with a grain of salt, it’s also promising to hear his new quarterback, Matt Ryan, gush about him.
I normally keep to myself and work in silence but I’ve got a few things to play for this year, trust me?. Thanks for believing in me ❄️ & @AtlantaFalcons ‼️ You’ll get everything I have. No doubt. https://t.co/ByULkFiXhQ
— Hayden Hurst (@haydenrhurst) June 9, 2020
Depending on how my teams are shaping up, I’d be willing to reach as far as 20-to-25 picks earlier than Hurst’s ADP to snag him in most traditional season-long formats.
Breshad Perriman (WR – NYJ): ADP — 158.8, WR59
While Hurst’s an example of one of my flag-plant guys whose ADP is getting earlier, Perriman remains grossly underrated. By now, I’ve basically laid out my entire case for drafting the former first-round pick. First, I threw him under the microscope in my Wide Receivers to Target in Best Ball Leagues piece back in the middle of May. Then I wrote about him in even greater depth for numberFire. Most recently, as part of a collaborative piece here, I espoused my love for Perriman as a potential WR1 for the 2020 season here.
Between his opportunity to carve out a substantial role with his new team, the Jets, and his huge finish to last year, I’m dumbfounded by him lasting until after pick 150 in PPR formats. Beyond his mouthwatering numbers to close out the 2019 campaign, though, I find myself further emboldened to take him after reading veteran film analyst Greg Cosell’s scouting report on his final five-game heater published at FantasyPoints. I’ll be snatching up Perriman as early as the 10th round to avoid getting sniped by a league-mate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
