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For the first time since 2001, the NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway won’t be run as the final race of the season to decide the championship. In a schedule shake-up announced before the start of the season, the NASCAR’s annual stop in Miami was moved from its traditional November date to one in the spring. So even though the recent schedule changes moved the race to mid-June, there are still a lot of unknowns heading into this weekend’s race.
As we’ve seen with most races since NASCAR’s return, this week’s starting lineup was set by random draw in groups of 12 based on the current point standings. So again, most of the good drivers will start up front, giving us limited opportunities to capitalize on place differential points. After reviewing this week’s driver salaries, I feel like there are some great values along with some real headscratchers. Here are my drivers to target and avoid in this Sunday’s contest over on DraftKings!
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Drivers to Target
Tyler Reddick (#8, Richard Childress Racing)
DK Price: $7,300
Starting Position: 24th
I usually lead my targets with the high-profile driver you’ll want in your lineup for the week. However, this week, my favorite driver to target in DraftKings contests is rookie Tyler Reddick. After drawing a 24th-place starting position, Reddick has plenty of place differential upside. He also only has the 19th-highest driver salary of the week. And although he doesn’t have any Cup Series experience at this track, he’s had plenty of success here in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Over the past three seasons, running for three different race teams, Reddick has finished fourth, first, and first, in his three starts at Homestead-Miami. This includes back-to-back wins that earned him the Xfinity Series Championship in 2018 and 2019. A lack of Cup Series success it the only thing going against Reddick this weekend. But based on his starting position and salary, there’s a lot to love about having Reddick in your lineups for Sunday.
Kyle Busch (#18, Joe Gibbs Racing)
DK Price: $10,100
Starting Position: 4th
Usually priced as one of the top two or three most expensive drivers, Kyle Busch comes in as the sixth-priciest salary this week, and I’m unsure what I’m missing here. Busch is a threat to win any given week, and that’s no different than this Sunday at Homestead-Miami. Coming off a win here last November to pick up his second Cup Series Championship, Busch also has finishes of sixth, second, and fourth in his three races here before that win. He ranks second among drivers in laps led during those four years, and he’s one of the best drivers here by average finish. I’m unsure why he’s discounted this week, but he’s a definite target for me.
Erik Jones (#20, Joe Gibbs Racing)
DK Price: $6,500
Starting Position: 15th
Another driver that feels like a fantastic value this weekend is Erik Jones. He’s got a salary of just $6,500 for Homestead-Miami, which is 23rd among drivers. Jones doesn’t have a ton of history at this track, as the series only races here once a year, but he did have a third-place finish here last fall. While he has struggled as of late, and starting 15th doesn’t provide huge potential for place differential, the team he’s with is just too good to be priced this low. Most of the time, you’re dealing with highly underfunded teams or unproven drivers in this price range. I’d look to take advantage of his recent price drop.
Cole Custer (#41, Stewart-Haas Racing)
DK Price: $6,000
Starting Position: 35th
My favorite value pick of the week is another rookie, Cole Custer. Just like Reddick, Custer will be competing at Homestead-Miami in a Cup Series car for the first time this weekend, but his DraftKings salary and a starting position of 35th make him a very solid play this week. Also similar to Reddick, Custer has had great success at this track in the Xfinity Series, picking up a victory here in 2017, and then finishing runner-up to Reddick each of the past two years. I think Custer would be a nice flyer here regardless, but the starting position makes him a lock for me if you’re looking to spend money elsewhere.
Drivers to Avoid
Denny Hamlin (#11, Joe Gibbs Racing)
DK Price: $10,400
Starting Position: 1st
This will feel a bit bold at first, but when you’re paying top dollar for a driver, you need them to lead laps and contend for the win. You can’t have 20 percent of your budget committed to a driver who won’t give you high-end point production. Stating first in Sunday’s race eliminates Hamlin’s chances for positive place differential, and while this could lead to laps led, Hamlin has started from the pole at this track in the last three races here, yet he’s led just a combined 42 laps. Hamlin will more than likely run inside the top-10, but he hasn’t had a top-5 at this track since 2013, so I’d be concerned about betting on Hamlin to provide a ton of upside on Sunday.
Christopher Bell (#95, Leavine Family Racing)
DK Price: $9,300
Starting Position: 36th
For the second contest in a row, it’s clear that Christopher Bell’s price tag is closely tied to his starting position. Even in comparison to Wednesday’s contest at Martinsville, Bell’s price tag has gone up over $1,000. With a salary of $9,300 for this weekend’s race, Bell has the ninth-highest salary, which is just crazy to me. I get that he’s starting deep in the field, but I don’t see him competing for a top-15 finish, and at that price tag, he needs to give you more than just place differential points. As mentioned above, you can put Cole Custer in your lineup instead, and he starts just one position ahead of Bell. Oh, and he’s $3,000 cheaper. That’s an easy choice for me.
Matt Kenseth (#20, Chip Ganassi Racing)
DK Price: $8,200
Starting Position: 20th
I feel like I pick on Kenseth every week, but I’ll continue to do so as long as DraftKings prices him this high. Kenseth has the 14th-highest salary again this week, and that’s despite not performing well since his first race back at Darlington. The former champion does have an average finish of 7.0 in his last three races here, but as noted in previous articles, he had been out of the car since November 2018 before returning this April. Since that return, Kenseth has finished 15th or worse in six of his seven races. There are just other drivers I prefer when considering the price.
Daniel Suarez (#96, Gaunt Brothers Racing)
DK Price: $7,500
Starting Position: 37th
Suarez continues to be priced higher than his finishing potential would put him due to having to start near the rear each week. So while he’s almost a lock to outperform his starting position, he’s unlikely to finish inside the top-20, which he has done only once all season. With the 18th-highest driver salary this week, Suarez is now just too expensive to justify a spot in your lineup. Don’t get tricked by the starting position. There are better options that are starting almost as deep in the field that won’t cost you as much.
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Kyle August is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyleFFfellas.
