Right after the Super Bowl, we did our “Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings” for 2020, even though we knew things would change with free agency and the NFL Draft. Why? Because it’s fun. Well, now that all that dust has settled, we can have a much better look at how players are going to be valued.
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I’ve assembled my early rankings, and let me tell you, there are going to be some big-time movers as the season approaches. I’ve compared my rankings to the ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) and am going to highlight why I might be higher/lower than the industry on specific players.
Quarterback’s I’m Higher On
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) Current Ranking: QB11, My Ranking: QB7
Did you know that 2019 was the first time in Rodgers’ career where he played at least 15 games and finished worse than the No. 7 quarterback? He’s played at least 15 games 10 times, finishing as the QB1 four times, the QB2 three times, and then the QB6, QB7, and QB9 (in 2019). So, why is he being ranked outside the top-10 at his position again? Matt LaFleur may not like him, but that won’t stop him from being top-10.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE) Current Ranking: QB14, My Ranking: QB12
I’m fully aware that Mayfield had a horrendous year in 2019, as did Odell Beckham. Does this make them bad at football? No, it doesn’t. A new offense will work wonders, as will having Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt all available. This requires some faith, but I’m willing to bet on his talent.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) Current Ranking: QB20, My Ranking: QB17
I don’t often want any part of rookie quarterbacks in year one, but Burrow is an exception to the rule. Zac Taylor’s offense never had a chance to succeed last year with the injuries they had. Burrow will have A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Tee Higgins, and Auden Tate at his disposal, while having a plus-receiving back in Joe Mixon. You also can’t forget that he’ll get first-round left tackle Jonah Williams back from injury. This offense should surprise some people.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB – CAR) Current Ranking: QB26, My Ranking: QB21
Any time you get a quarterback tied to a bad defense, there will be a lot of pass attempts, which is what you want out of your QB2. There’s zero chance he loses the job, and that’s what you want when selecting a second quarterback in a Superflex/2QB league. No one is going to be drafting Bridgewater in 1QB leagues, though he’ll have plenty of streaming appeal.
Quarterbacks I’m Lower On
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) Current Ranking: QB7, My Ranking: QB9
I’m not questioning Allen’s ability to finish as the No. 7 quarterback (where he’s currently being taken), because he finished as the No. 6 quarterback last year. However, his rushing touchdowns will come back down to earth. He scored nine of them in 2019, while Lamar Jackson scored seven rushing for more than double Allen’s yards. The addition of Stefon Diggs won’t hurt Allen’s passing totals, but it’s on the ground where he makes most of his marks, and I’m expecting that to regress.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) Current Ranking: QB19, My Ranking: QB22
A run-first offense that just lost their best receiver? Cousins is likely to finish higher than where I have him ranked because he’s been durable and has zero chance of losing the starting job, but I’d rather select someone with more upside in that range. The best-case scenario for Cousins is that he finishes as a high-end QB2, which is a reach considering he threw the ball just 444 times last year.
Running Backs I’m Higher On
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) Current Ranking: RB14, My Ranking: RB9
At first, I thought we’d see others catch on to Edwards-Helaire as a true RB1 in redraft, but the recent comments made by the Chiefs GM should keep him undervalued. Think about this… Andy Reid said Edwards-Helaire was better than Brian Westbrook on film. They spent a first-round draft pick on him. They were giving 31-year-old LeSean McCoy just as much work as they were Damien Williams last year, but sure, Williams is the starter. Enjoy the discount while it’s there.
Todd Gurley (RB – ATL) Current Ranking: RB16, My Ranking: RB10
I swear, the way people talk about Gurley is like he’s 32 years old and at the end of his career. He’s 25 years old and now tied to an offense that’s regularly inside the top-10 for points scored. He’s been in the league for five years and hasn’t ever finished outside the top-15 PPR running backs. The Falcons have no competition behind him for carries and he’ll play behind a much better offensive line.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) Current Ranking: RB18, My Ranking: RB14
In case you can’t tell, I’m more than okay investing in a rookie running back. If you’d like to know why, here’s a study I did based on what rookies are worth in fantasy football. What’s the difference between Taylor and someone like Nick Chubb, who’s currently being drafted as the RB8, while Taylor is down at RB18? Don’t tell me that Marlon Mack is better than Kareem Hunt, or that the Browns have a better offensive line than the Colts. Neither would be true. Taylor should receive 250-plus carries, and though he’s going to lose some passing-down work to Nyheim Hines, he’s still going to be a big factor in fantasy.
Ronald Jones (RB – TB) Current Ranking: RB42, My Ranking: RB29
I’m not giving up on Jones the way some have after the Bucs drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round. Over the last seven years, rookie running backs who were drafted in the third round have averaged just 125.3 touches their rookie year. Of the 22 running backs drafted, just three totaled more than 195 touches. Jones played very well down the stretch, and let’s not forget Bruce Arians gave third-round pick David Johnson just 161 touches his rookie season, even though he was dominant with them.
Running Backs I’m Lower On
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) Current Ranking: RB8, My Ranking: RB12
I’m a big fan of Chubb the player, but we can’t simply ignore the fact that he’s sharing a backfield with Kareem Hunt, who also happens to be very good. Through 10 games last year, Chubb was the No. 4 running back (PPG) in half-PPR formats. Keep in mind that was despite the offense not being very good. From that point forward (when Kareem Hunt joined the offense), Chubb was the No. 18 running back while Hunt was the No. 26 running back. This is clearly more of a timeshare than Chubb owners would like, leaving him best-suited as a high-end RB2 rather than the RB1 he appeared destined to be.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) Current Ranking: RB11, My Ranking: RB18
I can’t understand why everyone thinks that the offense is just going to keep trucking along without Philip Rivers, like he’s not a borderline Hall of Famer or something. Sure, he wasn’t great last year, but if you think opponents will approach this offense the same way in 2020, you’re wrong. I’m not saying Ekeler will be chopped liver or anything, but keep in mind that the offense will not look the same. Tyrod Taylor has never thrown more than 437 pass attempts in a single season, while Rivers threw the ball 591 times in 2019. In the three years Taylor played alongside LeSean McCoy (who’s an excellent pass-catcher), he caught 32, 51, and 59 passes, a far cry from the 92 that Ekeler had last year.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB) Current Ranking: RB30, My Ranking: RB43
When you saw Ronald Jones in the undervalued section, you had to know Vaughn would be here. During the scouting process, I felt like Vaughn was just a guy, not a difference maker. That’s not to say he wouldn’t be able to produce if given the opportunity, but I don’t think opportunity will simply be given to him. Don’t forget that David Johnson saw just 161 touches his rookie season under Bruce Arians, and that was while he was extremely efficient. Interestingly enough, he was also a third-round pick.
Marlon Mack (RB – IND) Current Ranking: RB41, My Ranking: RB45
If you’re happy with the running back on your roster, you don’t draft one at the top of the second round. Mack has had issues staying on the field, hasn’t been used in the passing-game, and is too hit-or-miss for the Colts’ liking. Taylor is superior in every way and that’ll be reflected in their touch counts this year. Mack is simply a high-end handcuff.
Wide Receivers I’m Higher On
A.J. Green (WR – CIN) Current Ranking: WR25, My Ranking: WR13
When it comes to wide receivers, take the guys who’ve been there before. When on the field, Green has been a top-15 wide receiver every season he’s played. Granted, health has been an issue and it’s going to impact his draft position but relying on injuries to happen is a losing mentality. Coming back with a one-year deal with Joe Burrow under center should remind fantasy owners just how good Green can be.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE) Current Ranking: WR11, My Ranking: WR6
Many have already moved on from Beckham, like he wasn’t a top-three receiver whenever he took the field for the first five years of his career. I’m unwilling to move him out of the top-10 receivers when practically everyone on the Browns was a disaster last year. Despite his bad 2019 season, Beckham has still posted WR2 or better numbers in 64.0 percent of the games over his career. The only players with better rates over their career are Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) Current Ranking: WR27, My Ranking: WR23
We can’t forget that Metcalf had a knee scope just two weeks prior to last season, and that he was considered a “raw receiver” by many who thought he’d take time to develop. During his rookie season, we watched him top 60 yards on nine separate occasions, which was tied for the 10th most among wide receivers. We all know touchdowns will come playing alongside Russell Wilson, too. Metcalf has legitimate WR1 upside if his development continues. After all, we did see him set the rookie record for receiving yards (160) in a playoff game.
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN) Current Ranking: WR32, My Ranking: WR26
Sure, A.J. Green is coming back to the lineup, but don’t forget that Boyd was actually better with Green on the field back in 2018. When you add Joe Burrow to the offense, we should see them move the ball with much more consistency. While at LSU, Burrow loved his slot receiver Justin Jefferson, and I’d expect him to continue peppering the position with the Bengals. To get a receiver with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons outside the top-24 is rare.
Henry Ruggs (WR – LVR) Current Ranking: WR49, My Ranking: WR36
Once we knew Ruggs was the first receiver off the board at No. 12, we should’ve bumped him up the rankings, as he’s going to get plenty of opportunity, especially with a team that doesn’t have a prototypical No. 1 receiver. Ruggs isn’t a guy that’ll continually blow the top of the defense, but rather a guy you want to get the ball into his hands and let him do damage after the catch. Knowing Derek Carr‘s lack of aggression (6.3 average air yards per attempt – 2nd lowest mark in the league), it should benefit Ruggs, and the Raiders clearly have a role mapped out for him.
Wide Receivers I’m Lower On
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) Current Ranking: WR33, My Ranking: WR46
I think there were a lot of people shocked by the Cowboys selecting CeeDee Lamb at No. 17 overall considering how well Gallup has played to this point. Sure, the Cowboys needed a third wide receiver, but Lamb was the worst-case scenario for Gallup, who’s likely moving down to third on the totem pole, capping his potential.
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) Current Ranking: WR15, My Ranking: WR21
I love Brown the player, but if you aren’t worried about the lack of volume in this offense, I don’t know what I can tell you. We all know Brown was a monster over the second half of the season, finishing as the No. 8 wide receiver from Week 7 through Week 16. The issue… he was 47th in targets over that span. That screams regression. While he should progress as a player in his second season, we must anticipate regression with his efficiency. In a run-first offense, Brown should be considered a WR2/3 with upside for more.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) Current Ranking: WR17, My Ranking: WR25
Let me be clear about this: The Jerry Jeudy draft pick was a great one for the Broncos, as was the KJ Hamler one. However, from a fantasy standpoint, they were terrible for Sutton. He saw 125 targets last year with absolutely no competition on the roster. Now, with Jeudy, Hamler, Melvin Gordon, and year two Noah Fant in the mix, Sutton should be considered unlikely to match that number in 2020 and beyond.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) Current Ranking: WR42, My Ranking: WR47
If there’s one thing I know, it’s that Mike Williams is going to miss Philip Rivers throwing him the ball in tight one-on-one situations. Rivers was intercepted an amazing eight times while targeting Williams, which led all wide receivers, and he saw just 90 targets. Tyrod Taylor isn’t someone who takes a lot of risks, and if Justin Herbert is put under center, they won’t be throwing a whole lot with a rookie quarterback. Williams is a very risky fantasy selection in 2020.
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG) Current Ranking: WR43, My Ranking: WR57
Did you know there wasn’t a single game in 2019 where Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Slayton, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley were on the field together? That’s an issue for Slayton’s projection in 2020, as he’s clearly the fourth or fifth option in the pass-attack. Add in the inconsistency of Daniel Jones, and you have yourself a very high-risk wide receiver who’s being taken over some valuable commodities.
Tight Ends I’m Higher On
Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL) Current Ranking: TE18, My Ranking: TE11
Opportunity means everything to a tight end and Hurst is going to walk into plenty of it. The Falcons have used their tight end quite heavily over the last couple years and they really didn’t replace Mohamed Sanu. Instead of trying to re-sign Austin Hooper, they decided it’d be better to trade a second-round pick for Hurst, showing just how much they valued him. Don’t think he’s not talented just because he played behind Mark Andrews. He should see 80-plus targets in 2020 en route to a top-12 finish.
Jace Sternberger (TE – GB) Current Ranking: TE30, My Ranking: TE23
Many were waiting to see if the Packers snagged a tight end in free agency or the draft once they cut Jimmy Graham, but it never happened. Well, they did draft a tight end in the third round, but he’s going to be their fullback. With limited options in the passing game, Sternberger just might surprise fantasy players in 2020.
Will Dissly (TE – SEA) Current Ranking: TE31, My Ranking: TE22
Injuries have sadly derailed the production for Dissly, but when on the field, he’s been ridiculously good. He’s only played 10 games, but in those games, he’s posted TE1-type numbers in 60 percent of them. That’s the same percentage as George Kittle in his career. Again, it’s a small sample size, but as the 31st tight end off the board? He’s well worth the risk. And no, don’t worry about Greg Olsen.
Tight Ends I’m Lower On
Austin Hooper (TE – CLE) Current Ranking: TE9, My Ranking: TE14
When it comes to tight ends, it’s all about targets. Going back to 2009, there have been just 11 tight ends who’ve finished top-10 without seeing a minimum of 80 targets, which might be difficult for Hooper to come by with his new team. Not only do they have Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt, but Hooper is now part of a crowded tight end room with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant (who they drafted in the fourth round). Kevin Stefanski’s offense in Minnesota did run a lot of 2TE sets, but their top three tight ends combined for just 105 targets, and none had more than 48 targets.
Noah Fant (TE – DEN) Current Ranking: TE12, My Ranking: TE15
This comes down to there being simply too many mouths to fee in Denver. Do we think they’re suddenly going to let Drew Lock throw the ball 600-plus times? Not with Vic Fangio as they coach, they aren’t. When you have Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Melvin Gordon, and Phillip Lindsay as your skill-position corps, it’s going to be tough seeing consistent targets. He’s going to flash and have big games but won’t be consistent enough for an every-week option.
Blake Jarwin (TE – DAL) Current Ranking: TE20, My Ranking: TE24
This is the most interesting player on the list because I’m four spots behind the ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) but I’m eight spots ahead of the public draft position. Something clearly must change. When the Cowboys selected CeeDee Lamb at No. 17 overall, it dragged down both Michael Gallup and Jarwin, as the targets will be harder to come by. It’s possible I’m too low on Jarwin considering he and Jason Witten combined for 124 targets last year, but they are under a new head coach who may change their approach.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.