There are many redraft fantasy football players who refuse to draft rookies, stating they’re overhyped and continually underperform. I was a little that way back when I started playing fantasy, though I’ve adjusted my expectations after being able to research the subject.
If you missed it, I put together an article on how to value rookies in fantasy football about two months ago, highlighting just how important draft position often dictates their opportunity in year one. Now that we know the landing spots for each player, as well as the equity that was used to acquire them, we can predict which rookies will have an impact right away.
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
I don’t often want any part of rookie quarterbacks in year one, but Burrow is an exception to the rule. Zac Taylor’s offense never had a chance to succeed last year with the injuries they had. Burrow will have A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Tee Higgins, and Auden Tate at his disposal, while having a plus-receiving back in Joe Mixon. You also can’t forget that he’ll get first-round left tackle Jonah Williams back from injury. This offense should surprise some people.
RUNNING BACKS
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
After the Chiefs spent a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire, my redraft and dynasty alerts were going off in my mind. The running backs who’ve been drafted in the first round over the last seven years have averaged 249.6 touches in year one. In fact, 66.7 percent of them have finished as a top-18 running back their rookie year. Going to the Chiefs offense where Andy Reid produces RB1s like a factory, Edwards-Helaire is going to be a stud in year one.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Many thought Taylor would be the first running back off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft, though he was actually the third running back off the board, selected at No. 41 overall. The Colts have what’s considered the best offensive line in the league, so when you combine that with Taylor’s vision and long speed, there’s massive potential. Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack may prevent him from getting 20 touches per game, but he’s going to be a star.
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
The Lions surprised many when they took Swift at No. 35 overall, though it wasn’t that shocking when you look at the trouble Kerryon Johnson‘s had staying on the field. Swift doesn’t have a clear path to the 15-plus touch role that Edwards-Helaire and Taylor do, but second-round picks have averaged 172.3 touches their rookie year. Swift is likely going to be the lead back in Detroit, but he’s probably best left in RB3 territory if/when Johnson is healthy.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
There are some willing to anoint Akers the top back in Los Angeles, though I’m not there just yet. The Rams did select him in the second round, which typically means they want him to win the job, but we can’t forget they traded up to the top of the third round last year to select Darrell Henderson. They also said they’re moving more towards a timeshare approach instead of the one-back system. Still, Akers was drafted with more equity, was drafted more recently, and has the body to handle goal-line work.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB)
Everyone was waiting around for the Bucs to draft a running back. Vaughn went to them, though it wasn’t until the third round. That’s somewhat significant because of 22 running backs selected in the third round over the last seven years, only three of them have finished better than the RB23. There were also just three running backs who totaled more than 200 touches, so Vaughn getting a workhorse role is far from guaranteed.
Honorable mentions: Zack Moss (RB – BUF), J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL), Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
The landing spot in Denver certainly wasn’t ideal from an immediate fantasy impact perspective, but Jeudy will still make waves in the fantasy community in year one. Of the 25 wide receivers who’ve been drafted in the first round over the last seven years, five of them have finished as top-24 receivers. Jeudy is certainly capable, but Courtland Sutton is a big threat to his target share. Because of that, Jeudy should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 in 2020.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
When Lamb initially landed with the Cowboys, I was worried about his potential for impact in year one. But the more I looked into it, the more I realized he can make an impact, even in year one. The exit of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten clear up 166 targets in the offense. While Blake Jarwin is likely to snatch up some of them in Witten’s place, he’s not likely to hit the 83 of them that Witten did. If Lamb can jump Michael Gallup right away, 90-100 targets aren’t out of question.
Henry Ruggs (WR – LVR)
The Raiders drafted Ruggs at No. 12 overall and as the first wide receiver off the board in what was considered one of the best receiver classes ever. The best part is that there’s little competition for targets in the offense. Hunter Renfrow was the top receiver last year with 71 targets in just 13 games. That would’ve worked out to 87.4 targets over 16 games. That should be the bare minimum for Ruggs, who could be the most impactful rookie receiver in 2020.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Some are suggesting Jefferson will have a big role right out of the gate and have a shot to be the No. 1 rookie receiver, though I’m a bit more hesitant. In a year where Adam Thielen missed essentially half of the season, Stefon Diggs saw just 94 targets. Call me skeptical that Jefferson will approach that number. Still, he’s going to be a starter and is NFL ready, so he’s on the redraft radar.
Michael Pittman (WR – IND)
While watching Pittman play, he reminded me of someone like Vincent Jackson, so seeing him land with Philip Rivers is great for his production. Remember, Rivers has no chemistry with any of their receivers and will be learning the playbook, just like Pittman. He’s a big-bodied wide receiver who wins contested catches, and Rivers is willing to throw the ball up to players like that. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him lead the Colts receivers in touchdowns.
Denzel Mims (WR – NYJ)
We knew the Jets would be looking for a future No. 1 receiver to pair with Mims and they stole him at the end of the second round. It’s a little disheartening to see them trade back when they could have taken him earlier, as it shows they were willing to risk losing him. He won’t out-target Jamison Crowder out of the gate, but may pass Breshad Perriman, who’s on a one-year deal. There’s potential here, though not guaranteed.
Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI)
The Eagles do have Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on the depth chart, but both are aging wide receivers who’ve had trouble staying healthy. The departure of Nelson Agholor created a void in their slot role, which is where Reagor can do some real damage after the catch. He may not approach 100 targets like some rookie wide receivers, but he’ll make a fantasy impact in year one.
Honorable mentions: Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF), Bryan Edwards (WR – OAK), Tee Higgins (WR- CIN), Van Jefferson (WR – LAR)
