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It’s been over a week since the conclusion of the NFL draft. If your dynasty rookie draft is in the books, you already know who you’ve got, and you’ve had some time to get over shiny new toy syndrome. Not much, but some.
Now it’s safe to start making trades for this class of rookies. If you didn’t get who you wanted in your rookie draft, there’s no time like the present to start negotiating. Yes, it’s time to exploit any and all regrets that another manager has expressed to you about their rookies.
Here are my recommended trade offers for the top-10 rookies in this year’s class. I’ll be using Mike Tagliere’s dynasty trade chart as my guide.
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1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Tags’ Value: 68
Potential Offer: Odell Beckham Jr. (69)
If you’re hungry for running backs, try sending the CEH owner a straight-up offer of OBJ. Sure, there’s much less hype building around Odell, but post-draft reports have been inflating Damien Williams’ value. The Chiefs say the 28-year-old will start, but it’s May, so who knows. As was much discussed during last offseason, Andy Reid loves his running backs, and Kansas City’s decision to take CEH in the first is tantalizing.
Realistically, it’s going to be difficult to get CEH from his new owner. This deal only works if the CEH owner is in win-now mode and has faith in Odell. If they see their new running back as more of a project than a day-one starter and they happen to need a receiver, they might just agree to this deal.
2. Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Tags’ Value: 66
Potential Offer: A.J. Brown (49) and Zack Moss (18) = 67
Taylor and CEH are both high-end running backs, and you’ll probably have to pay a pretty penny to get them. We don’t know how the Colts intend to use Taylor with Marlon Mack still on the roster, so as with CEH, there’s some uncertainty to exploit. What’s not uncertain, however, is the quality of the Colts’ offense line, led by stud guard Quenton Nelson. If Taylor earns the lion’s share of the workload, he’ll be well worth whatever price you pay.
This depth-boosting deal would work best if your prospective partner is in a total rebuild. Both Brown and Moss would be valuable contributors, and you’ll get to sell high on Browns’ unsustainable numbers from 2019 while there’s still time.
3. Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Tags’ Value: 55
Potential Offer: Derrick Henry (52) and Larry Fitzgerald (5) = 57
The Denver Broncos splurged on wide receivers in this year’s draft, landing both Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the first two rounds. Quarterback Drew Lock now has an arsenal of weapons to work with, but I wonder how many targets there are to go around. Jeudy owners might be wondering the same thing, too.
If you find yourself in rebuild mode, Jeudy could be your WR1 of the future. As long as you’ve got faith in him, try selling some of your older pieces for the 21-year-old Alabama product. Bill it as a win-now kind of deal. There’s no way Fitzgerald sticks around long after 2020, but for now, he’s a reliable depth option with a decent target share in the slot. Derrick Henry, meanwhile, will continue to be the workhorse for Tennessee in 2020. While he’s perfectly capable of winning you a championship next year, not much is certain beyond that point.
4. D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
Tags’ Value: 45
Potential Offer: Marquise Brown (25) and Darius Slayton (16) = 41
If you just drafted Swift, I’m expecting you to recoil at that offer. That’s intentional. I don’t think Swift deserves his rookie RB3 ranking. If you want to get into the numbers, you can check out David Zach’s writeup about the rookie class here. The short of it: Swift doesn’t have the athleticism, college production, or offensive line to be an early-career success in the NFL. Also, when was the last time that a Lions running back panned out? Barry Sanders?
Again, this is another depth-boosting deal aimed at supplementing a depleted roster. Both Brown and Slayton come into 2020 with tremendous upside, but they’re both deep-ball guys whose scores will vary wildly week-to-week. If you must buy Swift, see if you can sell your trade partner on youth at another position.
5. CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Tags’ Value: 44
Potential Offer: Aaron Jones (45)
These are two talented guys who find themselves in bad situations. Lamb looks like the WR3 in Dallas, and while Randall Cobb’s departure leaves him 83 slot targets to work with next year, that’s not a whole lot. And he won’t have much after that, either — Michael Gallup will be around until at least 2021, and Amari Cooper just signed a massive five-year deal. Similarly, Aaron Jones finds himself sharing a backfield with Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon.
That’s where you come in. Yes, Jones finished as the fantasy RB2 last season, but he’s doomed to face substantial touchdown regression — especially with more guys in the backfield. Lamb’s youth is the upshot for you in this deal. Jones turns 26 next season, so while he’s still got time, it’s not as much as the 21-year-old Lamb. That said, see if you can capitalize on Jones’ numbers from last season to nab another player in this deal.
6. Henry Ruggs III (WR – LV)
Tags’ Value: 34
Potential Offer: Adam Thielen (31) OR A.J. Green (31)
Looking to get younger at wide receiver? You might be able to swap an aging veteran for Ruggs. As the first receiver taken in this year’s draft, Ruggs found a safe landing spot in Las Vegas, as he won’t face much competition for targets. The speedy Alabama product should easily take over Tyrell Williams’ role in the offense. We still don’t know whether it’ll be Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota throwing him the ball, but I’m confident that Carr can help Ruggs put up high-end numbers (Mariota… not so much), so I’m somewhat comfortable making a move for him.
The only owners willing to accept a trade like this are people who either didn’t want Ruggs or want to win now. While I think Ruggs has a lot of potential, especially in 2020, I’m not convinced that he’ll have a high weekly floor. But as long as you’re comfortable with him posting inconsistent numbers like Kenny Golladay and Amari Cooper, go for it!
7. Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
Tags‘ Value: 29
Potential Offer: Chris Carson (30) OR D.J. Chark (33)
I’m high on Akers in both redraft and dynasty. He landed in a backfield with little competition (yes, I’m writing off Darrell Henderson here — his numbers last year were pathetic) that likes to run the ball. You’ll probably need to overpay for him a little bit, but I’m comfortable doing that as long as I’m selling high on someone.
Both Carson and Chark are great sell-high candidates. Carson’s coming off a pretty severe injury, and while the Seahawks didn’t add much help at the position, he’ll have to compete with Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas. Chark, meanwhile, will have to compete with newcomers Tyler Eifert and Laviska Shenault. I don’t foresee either player posting the numbers they did in 2019, but they’re both still young enough to tempt your dynasty league-mates.
8. J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Tags’ Value: 28
Potential Offer: Brandin Cooks (28)
If you’re buying Dobbins this year, you’re not playing to win now. Dobbins enters the NFL’s most crowded backfield, as general manager Eric DeCosta wants to use all four of Baltimore’s running backs next season. Oh, and they’ve got to compete with Lamar Jackson for red-zone carries.
However, Dobbins has the talent to emerge as the clear-cut lead back once Ingram leaves or retires. The ex-Saint’s contract runs through 2021, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baltimore part ways with him as soon as this season. The wait time might discourage some owners who ended up with Dobbins, and the 26-year-old Cooks’ first season in Houston could look like a safer bet to them.
9. Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Tags’ Value in 1QB: 20
Tags’ Value in 2QB/Superflex: 40
Potential Offer: Jameis Winston (24) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (20) = 44
You’re probably not trading for Burrow in a 1QB league, so let’s look at our options for 2QB/Superflex formats. I anticipate that Burrow went first overall to a team in rebuild mode, so their owner might be willing to wait a little longer for their return to fantasy relevance. While Burrow could lead them to the promised land, there’s a good chance that their team needs help elsewhere.
That’s where you come in. A deal like this promises help at running back — and a delayed reward at quarterback once Winston becomes a starter again. The ex-Buccaneer has the first shot at replacing Drew Brees whenever he retires, which could be as soon as next year, and that would give Winston the keys to the Saints’ powerful offense. To be fair, there’s a lot of risk involved with Winston, but you might be able to sell someone on his delayed upside.
10. Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Tags’ Value in 1QB: 16
Tags’ Value in 2QB/Superflex: 32
Potential Offer: Tom Brady (20) and Julian Edelman (11)
If you’re looking to get some last-minute value out of your Brady and Edelman stack, the Tagovailoa owner might be your perfect target. Brady is primed for a big year with the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, while Julian Edelman remains in control of the Patriots’ receiving corps.
Although it’s possible that neither guy plays after 2020, there’s also a chance Tagovailoa doesn’t make his first start until 2021. If Tagovailoa landed on a team in win-now mode, that’s unacceptable. See if you can play up the fears of Tua’s injury to deflate his value relative to your aging vets.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
