One of fantasy sports’ most well-known principles is that there is an inherent advantage to picking early in the first round because the perceived drop-off from the beginning to the end of the round is the largest. This is usually true most of the time for football, but the talent drop typically appears to be much smaller with baseball. If you’re particularly high on a late-first round player, it may even be beneficial to pick further back in the first round so you can snag an early second-round pick.

Ultimately, where you’d prefer (and hate) to pick may primarily depend on which players you want (or desire to avoid) the most in the first and second rounds, among other factors. However, the delayed season adds an extra wrinkle to this, as innings eaters like Gerrit Cole and athletes who may benefit heavily from their home ballparks, like Christian Yelich and Trevor Story, now have a little uncertainty attached to them. With that being said, our featured analysts have shared their thoughts on this topic by giving you their best and worst draft positions for 12-team leagues heading into the 2020 season. Read on to see what they had to say.

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Q1. What is your favorite position to draft at this year in 12-team leagues and why?

“I prefer drafting closer to either turn this year, but if I had to choose one spot, it’s third. Especially with the delayed start to the season giving Christian Yelich even more time to recover from his knee injury, the difference between him, Mike Trout, and Ronald Acuna Jr. from a fantasy perspective is infinitesimal. There’s a clear, albeit slight, tier drop to Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, neither of whom combines both the stolen base potential and the utter safety of the top three. The third spot allows you to take whichever of Yelich, Trout, and Acuna Jr. remains and then snag your second-round pick before either of the first two picks.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

“I don’t like making decisions. Nobody does. Barring an absolute stunner at picks No. 1 or 2, I won’t have to think twice when drawing the third slot. Whether it’s Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr., or Christian Yelich, I’ll happily grab whichever super-duper-star is still on the board. I might even get lucky and snag J.D. Martinez (22.2 ADP) in the second round and/or Starling Marte (28.2 ADP) in the third.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

“I like having the ninth spot in 12-team leagues. The ninth pick generally allows me to take a player I can build my offense around, such as Juan Soto or Trevor Story. They both have top-five overall upside in my opinion. I can come back in the second round and grab an elite starting pitcher. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are a couple of prime targets early in Round 2. In Rounds 3 and 4 there are plenty of options to choose from. I find myself gravitating towards a second baseman and another starting pitcher in those rounds, but I can take two more offensive players as well. Either way, the first four rounds make a good foundation for what I am trying to build.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

“Give me the eighth spot so I can draft it up and choose my own adventure. You have endless possibilities when drawing that position and can decide what route to start your acquisitions. You have a chance to decide on which elite arm to secure, you can choose to snag the best third baseman in Nolan Arenado, or you can switch and grab a top-tier shortstop in Trea Turner or Trevor Story. In fact, you can even pivot and put everyone in awe by taking the young superstar, Juan Soto. Landing this spot also opens up time to think between picks and find gems along the journey.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

“I’m with others in that I’d prefer pick No. 3 but if not, I’d be glad to grab pick No. 2 instead. There is a top-tier of exactly three players: Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, and Christian Yelich. After those three, there is a major drop off to No. 4. Yelich is my favorite among that group and if I want to guarantee I land him, picking at No. 2 is the ticket. What’s more is that in the late second and early third, you can pair Yelich with two of J.D. Martinez, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Rafael Devers.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Q2. What is your least favorite position to draft at this year in 12-team leagues and why?

“I see zero upside drafting from the sixth spot in a 12-team league. Once Ronald Acuna Jr., Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, and Cody Bellinger go with the first five picks (as they should), you can make a strong argument for five different players. Each of the big three shortstops of Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, and Trevor Story offers a strong power-speed combination, while Juan Soto is putting up historic numbers at 21 years old and has enormous upside. Gerrit Cole is also a fine consideration, but particularly with the delayed season cutting into his value as an innings-eater, he’s far from a cut above the other four. With little to differentiate the several players that should be available at pick six, fantasy owners who have input into their draft slot should do their best to pick earlier or much later.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

“You can order them however you please, but the clear top three of Trout, Acuna, and Yelich make way for Dodgers teammates Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts. After those five stud outfielders, there’s no consensus choice for pick No. 6. Since I don’t want an ace so early in a shortened season — one bad outing could derail their entire campaign — and I can’t say for sure that Trevor Story will play half of his games at Coors Field, Francisco Lindor would be my pick. However, he’s often available from the eighth slot and Trea Turner isn’t much worse at his No. 10 ADP. Making matters worse, I won’t necessarily love the second-round choices if drafters follow the ECR and deprive me of Freddie Freeman (14), Jose Ramirez (15), and J.D. Martinez (17).”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

“I don’t want to draw the fifth position in any of my drafts. Sure you get one of the top-five best guys in MLB, but you do not get to make the choice — you take what lands in your lap. For me, that takes a lot of fun out of the first round, which is typically full of anxiety and suspense. Not only do you lose the ability to get creative, but everyone else knows your pick before you take it. That is unless you get crazy and look another direction. You do not want to take chances in Round 1, so taking the leftovers from the feast of the first four sounds unappetizing to me. You get the fodder of the glory and then have to wait again until pick 20 to go again … lame.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

“The fourth pick is one that I am not crazy about having this year. I do not think Cody Bellinger should be the clear cut fourth player off the board. I would prefer either Mookie Betts or one of the top-two pitchers. There are several other players who I view as regression candidates or one-dimensional players who seem to be going late in the second or early in the third round. Of course, all drafts play out differently, but I have found that when I have the fourth pick, I am generally reaching in the first few rounds for players I could probably get several picks later.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

“Although I typically love picking on the turn, I do not want anything to do with the 12th pick in the first round this year. After the top-three picks, there are eight others that you can lump together as clear first-round values from Cody Bellinger to Juan Soto. After Soto and the three shortstops are gone, the drop-off is huge. In fact, the next two players on my board aren’t even going until the late-second round so I’d either have to reach or get what I deem to be a mid-second round pick at No. 13 overall.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for giving us their thoughts on their best and worst draft positions. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.

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