I’ve partaken in 18 best ball drafts, with 11 conducted before the NFL draft, and seven since the completion of the NFL draft. The sample of drafts is large enough for me to offer some of my favorite running back targets. Having said that, to add a layer of context to the following analysis, it’s worth noting the following breakdown of which draft slots I’ve held.
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| Draft Slot | # Times |
| 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 |
| 7 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 |
| 9 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 |
| 11 | 4 |
| 12 | 1 |
The average draft position (ADP) and running back ADP rank below are an average of MFL10 and RTSports.
Running Back Ownership Table
| Player | Overall Best Ball Rosters | Pre-Draft Best Ball Rosters | Post-Draft Best Ball Rosters |
| Justin Jackson | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Darrynton Evans | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Derrius Guice | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| James Conner | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| DeAndre Washington | 4 | 4 | 0 |
In all, I’ve selected 34 different running backs. I’ve picked 24 running backs on at least two teams. The table above features all 11 running backs I’ve selected on four or more teams. Below, I’ve highlighted my five favorite backs to target from this table.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC): ADP – 12.0, RB9
Justin Jackson (RB – LAC): ADP – 151.5, RB52
This is the second best-ball piece this year in which I’ve touted Jackson. You can read about why I’m targeting him aggressively in this article. Since that linked piece was published, the Chargers have drafted a running back, Joshua Kelley. He’ll provide competition to Jackson, however, the team spent only a fourth-round pick (pick 112 overall) on him. That’s not a throwaway pick by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s not a premium pick, either.
As for Ekeler, he’s the unquestioned top back on the team. I have him ranked as my RB6, and I’ve taken him as early as the eighth pick in best-ball drafts. I’ve also had him fall as far as pick 20 to me. He’s a stud pass-catching back. Out of 50 backs who were targeted at least 25 times, Football Outsiders (FO) ranked him second in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and third in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) last season.
He’s more than just a pass-catching whiz, though. While it would be unwise to simply extrapolate his first four games of 2019 with Melvin Gordon holding out, his elite start to the season points to his upside. According to our Fantasy Football Leaders landing page, Ekeler’s 26.8 fantasy points per game in point per reception (PPR) formats through the first four weeks of last year was second at running back to only Christian McCaffrey’s 28.0 fantasy points per game. During that four-game stretch, he twice bested 20 touches, caught at least five passes in all four games, and his low for touches was 16. I’m not a believer in him being awarded that large of a workload over the entire 2020 season, but I firmly believe he’ll have spike weeks with 20-plus touches.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): ADP – 75.5, RB31
The bulk of the teams I have Edwards-Helaire on were drafted before the NFL draft. Including him in here isn’t simply a humble brag about loading up before his ADP skyrocketed as a result of him landing in Kansas City’s high-powered offense. That said, I am stoked about it. Speaking of his ADP skyrocketing, in MFL10 classic leagues that drafted between April 26 (the Sunday following the NFL draft) and May 4, his ADP is 29.57 with a minimum selection of 14 and a maximum of 58.
As the table above illustrates, I’ve snagged CEH on two of seven teams drafted since the NFL draft completed. Both leagues are MFL Top-3 formats, and he was my second-round selection at pick 20 to pair with Alvin Kamara in one league and my third-round selection at pick 32 joining Ekeler and Miles Sanders on that team. I’ll gladly continue to scoop up CEH in the mid-to-late second round, and he’s an instant pick if he falls to me in the third.
As the first running back off the board in the NFL draft and the only back selected in the first round, the Chiefs sunk significant draft capital in landing him. Does that guarantee him the starting gig and a large workload right out of the chute? No. However, it’s a positive indication that Andy Reid has a vision for him in the offense.
Further, Reid spoke glowingly about CEH in the pre-draft scouting process, per a tweet from Adam Schefter.
During the pre-draft scouting process, Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid told his GM Brett Veach that he thought LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire was better than former Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook, whom Reid coached from 2002-09.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2020
For those who aren’t old enough to remember Brian Westbrook’s peak with the Eagles, he was a do-it-all back whose season-low for yards from scrimmage from 2004 through 2008 was 1,233 yards in just 12 games in 2005, per Pro-Football-Reference. During that five-year stretch, Westbrook’s 8,106 all-purpose yards were the second-most among running backs, and they amounted to a whopping 117.48 yards from scrimmage per game. Expecting CEH to match Westbrook’s peak production in his rookie season is silly, but revisiting Westbrook’s work in Reid’s offense serves as a reminder of the type of running back production that’s possible in an offense coached by Reid.
Like Westbrook, CEH is a major asset in the passing game. In his final year with LSU, CEH hauled in 55 receptions for 453 receiving yards and a score. He’s no slouch on the ground, either, and he brings the well-rounded skills to the field necessary to be an every-down back.
James Conner (RB – PIT): ADP – 56.5, RB24
A little over a month ago, I highlighted Conner as a player to target in best-ball leagues. He remains the RB24 in ADP, but his ADP has slipped a bit from 51.5 to 56.5. My reasons for viewing Conner as a top-20 running back and solid RB2 target remain the same. However, it’s important to note that the Steelers did draft a running back.
The Steelers didn’t have a first-round pick because they dealt it for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their first pick was the 17th selection in the second round — 49th overall — and they used it to pick receiver Chase Claypool. Their next selection was a third-round pick (102 overall) and used to select edge rusher Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh waited until their third pick (124 overall) to snap up running back Anthony McFarland. McFarland was the 12th running back snatched up in the NFL draft, and the Steelers passed on top-flight prospects Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins in the second round.
Conner will have competition for touches in the backfield this year, but the club’s decision to wait until their third selection to grab a back while talented options were on the board in the second round is a good sign for Conner’s 2020 outlook. He’s the most well-rounded back on the Steelers, and even if the club scales back his touches in hopes of keeping him healthy, Conner is capable of scoring fantasy points on the ground and through the air.
Matt Breida (RB – MIA): ADP – 173.5, RB57
Many mock drafts projected the Dolphins to use one of their three first-round picks on a running back. Not only did they bypass the top running back options with their three first-round picks, but they also didn’t select one at all. Instead, they opted to trade a fifth-round pick to the 49ers to add Breida to their running back room. He’ll presumably compete with Jordan Howard for the top spot on the depth chart.
Breida is a measurables dreamboat, as you can see on his PlayerProfiler page. His speed translates to the gridiron, too. He posted the fastest speed last year at 22.3 miles per hour (mph) on an 83-yard touchdown run, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
He’s played through a variety of injuries in his three-year career, but he’s still been quite productive. In his career, he’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 381 carries, and he’s also hauled in 67 of 89 targets and averaged 8.4 yards per reception. His best year as a pro was in 2018 when he amassed 1,075 yards from scrimmage at a tasty 6.0 yards per touch.
He goes from running behind an offensive line that FO ranked eighth in Adjusted Line Yards to a Dolphins squad that ranked dead last. However, he faces less competition for touches with his new team, and the Dolphins spent significant resources in the NFL draft to overhaul their offensive line. Miami spent the 15th pick on tackle Austin Jackson, the 39th pick in the draft on tackle Robert Hunt, and the 111th pick on guard Solomon Kindley.
Interestingly, in MFL10 classic drafts held from April 26 through May 4, Breida has an ADP of 193.13 with a minimum pick of 51 and a maximum pick of 239 — later than his combined ADP highlighted above. His ADP hasn’t uniformly slipped in MFL best-ball leagues, though. Breida’s ADP in MFL10 Top-3 leagues from April 26 through May 4 is 104.24, directly after backfield mate Howard’s at 103.8. Also, changing the time frame to May 1 through May 4 in MFL10 classic leagues results in Breida’s ADP moving to 111.5. I view Breida as a fringe top-100 pick. I’ll delightedly pull the trigger on him after pick 100 to serve as the RB3 or RB4 on my best-ball teams.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
