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Throughout the offseason, you will see plenty of mock drafts analyzed on this site. While the primary value of mock drafts isn’t realized until August, there is still something to be gained from conducting them at various times leading up to draft season. A late April/early May mock draft can give you an idea of what players you are targeting while providing you with a baseline to measure price change over the coming months.
For this mock draft using our free mock draft simulator, I decided to go with the nine spot. This is for a 12-team, PPR league with one QB, three WRs, two RBs, one TE, and one flex. I removed kickers and defenses because there just isn’t any value in including them, especially this early in the process.
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator
1.09 Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
There is nothing more valuable in fantasy football than an elite running back. They are increasingly rare commodities as more teams transition towards committee backfields. Joe Mixon touched the ball at least 23 times in his final five games last season. He is one of the few true three-down workhorses remaining. He’s only 24 years old and is on an offense that should be much improved this season with the addition of Joe Burrow and the return of Jonah Williams. Mixon led all running backs in evaded tackles in 2019 despite running behind one of the worst offensive lines that constantly saw him take hits behind the line of scrimmage. With the true difference-making wide receiver dying a slow death, I want to anchor my team with an elite running back. That opportunity is usually reserved for those fortunate enough to pick in the front half. I jump at it here.
2.04 Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
I strongly considered taking another running back here in either Kenyan Drake or Miles Sanders, but I went with Chris Godwin because I believe he will be the biggest beneficiary from Tom Brady taking over at quarterback. Godwin fully broke out with a monster 2019 season and he can easily reach 100 receptions this season as Brady’s new “Julian Edelman.” It remains to be seen if this was the correct pick. That will depend on what is there rounds three and four.
3.09 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
It likely didn’t matter whether I went running back second round or wide receiver. It would’ve been either Kenyan Drake and Odell Beckham or Chris Godwin and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I don’t see any scenario where CEH makes it to the late third round by the time draft season rolls around, but I want to make it clear that he’s a tremendous value at that spot. CEH was the only running back taken in the first round. That’s a message from the Chiefs that they plan to make him their primary back. A 60% opportunity share makes him an RB1 on the league’s best offense. Damien Williams is going to play, but this idea that CEH has to “beat out” Williams is just nonsense. The Chiefs didn’t spend a first-round pick on a running back to put him behind a former UDFA entering his age 28 season that has never touched the ball more than 141 times in a season.
4.04 Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
There were a lot of good options at this pick. A.J. Brown and Courtland Sutton were tempting because they are young ascending talents. However, I went with Adam Thielen because even though he’s over 30, he doesn’t have the tread of a typical 30-year-old receiver due to his late breakout and he’s locked into significant target volume. Stefon Diggs is now in Buffalo and while Justin Jefferson should start as a rookie, he is not a threat to Thielen’s alpha status. This will be the first season Thielen is the undisputed target hog. 160 targets are well within his range of outcomes. Thielen probably belongs in the early third round.
5.09 D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
I’m taking the opposite approach here and going with the young kid. Now that we’re a bit later into the draft and this is my third receiver, I’m looking for vertical upside. T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Boyd, and Julian Edelman are what they are. D.K. Metcalf, on the other hand, has a WR1 ceiling. For what it’s worth, I will have Metcalf ranked ahead of Tyler Lockett this season. Metcalf played 87.2% of the snaps as a rookie. That number should push 100% as a sophomore. Perhaps under-appreciated, Metcalf had double-digit fantasy points in 10 games last season. Even if the Seahawks are the same backward offense, Metcalf is going to improve. And what if they actually let Russell Wilson throw?
6.04 James Conner (RB – PIT)
I don’t like James Conner. At all. He’s not good. With that being said, he’s still the starting running back for the Steelers and although they drafted Anthony McFarland, they didn’t take him until day three. Conner will start the season as the three-down back and he is my third running back. I’ll take that value and look to move him in season.
7.09 Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
I really like Darrell Henderson. The Rams really, really hate Darrell Henderson. Every move they’ve made in the past two seasons has been loud and clear: “Anyone but you Darrell, anyone but you.” The Rams did not draft Cam Akers to not use him. He will have a 40-50% opportunity share. As my RB4, that’s enough, especially considering the potential for more. Hopefully, the Rams offensive line is better than last year.
8.04 Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
Brandin Cooks is not a bad receiver. He may be on his 27th team and one concussion away from retirement, but as my WR4, I’m fine with someone of Cooks’ talent operating as the WR1 for Deshaun Watson. The bar for Cooks to return value here is low and if I’m wrong, I’m willing to accept that.
9.09 Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
It’s the ninth round. I can stream tight end if I’m wrong. I’m willing to roll the dice on Rob Gronkowski. This one doesn’t need much explanation. A ninth-round pick will most likely end up on the waiver wire anyway. Gronk comes with a ceiling that few other tight ends come with. If he is, in fact, done, then I can drop him and I’m no worse off.
10.04 Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
For the purposes of this pick, I am just going to repost what I wrote in my Players Already Sold on for 2020 article.
If anyone who plays in a fantasy football league with me is reading this, please know that you are not going to roster Diontae Johnson. It’s that simple. I will roster him everywhere. I can’t remember the last time a rookie wide receiver who played so well went so unnoticed. Johnson was thrust into the worst possible situation. The Steelers had incumbent WR1 JuJu Smith-Schuster, who wasn’t going anywhere. James Washington had a clear leg up on Johnson and the team signed Donte Moncrief. Johnson was a third-round rookie with very little fanfare that many, including myself, thought was severely overdrafted. He was a long shot to even contribute. Then, as if things couldn’t get worse, Ben Roethlisberger blew out his elbow in the second game of the season. He spent the rest of the season working with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who are two of the worst quarterbacks I have ever seen.
Johnson saw a catchable target on 72.8% of balls, good for 81st in the league. To put things in perspective, his 59 receptions for 680 yards was mighty impressive. Most impressive, however, was the fact that Johnson led the league in target separation at 2.39 yards. He also dropped just three passes all season.
Johnson is an elite technician at the wide receiver position. Big Ben says he’s throwing pain-free for the first time in years. If we don’t have football this year, one of the most upsetting things for me will be missing out on a certain Diontae Johnson breakout. Johnson will come with a WR4 valuation – WR3 at the highest. He’s going to be a top-24 fantasy receiver. Of this I am certain.
11.09 Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
This late in the draft, we want plausible upside. Tony Pollard is one Ezekiel Elliott injury away from being an RB1 league winner. There is also the possibility of standalone RB4 value as Mike McCarthy could utilize Pollard more than the previous regime.
12.04 Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)
I hate being that guy that drafts a player based on residual name value. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been a strong fantasy quarterback in a long time, but he’s still Aaron Rodgers. This is the 12th round. I am streaming quarterbacks at this point. I have no qualms with seeing what Rodgers looks like and dumping him if he’s the same guy we saw last season.
13.09 Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
The final wide receiver on my roster will be a first-round rookie that projects to start alongside Deebo Samuel. I can’t ask for much more than that.
14.04 Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF)
Why not?
Final Roster
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers, Tony Pollard, Jerick McKinnon
WR: Chris Godwin, Adam Thielen, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk
TE: Rob Gronkowski
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive, follow him @jasonkatz13.