Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our Cheat Sheet Creator – which allows you to combine rankings from 100+ experts into one cheat sheet – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
The 2020 NFL Draft is in the books, and we’ve got another slate of quarterbacks to welcome into the league’s ranks. While dynasty owners have been prepping for this moment for months, what do these landing spots mean in redraft leagues?
Chances are, not much. Since 2014, only two rookie quarterbacks have earned QB1 finishes: Kyler Murray in 2019 and Dak Prescott in 2016. That said, rookie quarterbacks can make viable streaming options, and they’re often must-draft flyers in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
So which rookies are likely to hit? I’ll break down each quarterback’s landing spot to offer you some insight as the 2020 NFL season approaches.
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator 
The Top Three
Joe Burrow (CIN)
While Burrow was a lock for the first overall pick, how he’ll perform next season is much less clear. He’s got great offensive playmakers, but he has little support elsewhere.
Take the offensive line. The Bengals’ unit ranked 20th in pass protection in FootballOutsiders’ rankings, and the team failed to make any meaningful additions in free agency or through the draft (they acquired reserve man Xavier Su’a-Filo, but that’s it). That said, last year’s first-round pick, tackle Jonah Williams, will make his debut next season after an injury derailed his 2019 campaign. Whether he can make a difference remains to be seen.
However, Burrow is the likeliest to be a Day 1 starter in this year’s class. Also, the sheer number of weapons he’ll have at his disposal is frightening. In case you forgot, he’ll have A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, John Ross, and Auden Tate. Scary.
So where does that leave him? Well, Burrow is currently the QB20 in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), and he’s going in between Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garappolo. You’re paying for him to be a surefire QB2 at that price, and that’s a realistic expectation. You’ll just need to spell him with a rotational QB3 like Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater, or a backup quarterback forced into the starting role by injury.
Grade: Low-end QB2
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
There was much more uncertainty surrounding Tagovailoa’s draft position in the 2020 draft. While Miami had expressed significant interest in the Alabama product, draft experts were unsure about how much his injury had changed the situation — and how much of their interest might be a smokescreen. But they genuinely wanted him, and now Tagovailoa’s in one of the most intriguing spots in the NFL.
Miami has rebuilt their roster this offseason. After they ranked 31st in pass protection last season, Miami dished out big money for guard Ereck Flowers, and they also added depth in Ted Karras and Evan Brown. In the draft, they added tackle Austin Jackson in the first round, versatile Robert Hunt in the second, and guard Solomon Kindley in the fourth. It’s an improvement, but we’ll need to see how they gel on the field.
While Miami has remade their line (and their defense), they didn’t draft a wide receiver until the seventh round. Their receiving corps will continue to be anchored by DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki — a combination that can work but is unproven over a full season.
The primary question for fantasy owners is whether or not Tagovailoa starts. To me, the biggest red flag here is Miami’s decision to bring Chan Gailey out of retirement to be their offensive coordinator. Gailey has a long history with incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, including his QB8 season for the Jets in 2015. Although it’s hard to see the 68-year-old Gailey as anything more than a stopgap measure — just like Fitzpatrick — that’s enough to keep Tagovailoa on the bench for most of the season.
I’m not sure what Miami’s endgame is here, but (barring injury) we won’t see Tagovailoa until Week 8 or later. He’ll be a high-upside QB2 once he gets the starting gig, but he’s not worth drafting before the last round of Superflex leagues. His QB32 ECR makes perfect sense, although I’m a bit more bullish on Fitzpatrick than his lowly ranking of QB30.
Grade: High-end QB3
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Like Tagovailoa, Herbert’s in an interesting spot. He’s got a journeyman quarterback (who’s also an ex-Buffalo Bill, to boot) above him on the depth chart, and he’s got a mixed bag of offensive weapons to target.
Unlike Burrow and Tagovailoa, however, Herbert has a proven offensive line. The Chargers weren’t great last season, but they ranked ninth in pass protection. Since then, they dealt tackle Russell Okung to Carolina for Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner, and they added tackle Bryan Bulaga in free agency.
For playmakers, Herbert would have Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry, all of whom have proven themselves capable of fantasy relevance. Underperformance would be on Herbert, not them, as most struggles on their part last season can be blamed on Philip Rivers’ regression as a passer.
Again, as with Tagovailoa, the question is whether or not he’ll start. Head coach Anthony Lynn has already framed it as a “competition,” so there’s a chance Herbert emerges as the Week 1 guy. While Taylor will get every chance to start — and should start the beginning of the season — Herbert will be ready to go after even some minor mistakes.
Given the circumstances and the talent surrounding him, I think Herbert has a legitimate shot at cracking the top-24 quarterbacks as a rookie. It’s not guaranteed, but there’s enough offensive value here for me to feel comfortable taking both Taylor and Herbert as my QB2 at the tail end of 2QB/Superflex drafts. With Taylor at QB28 and Herbert at QB36, you should be able to finesse both of them in drafts.
Grade: Low-end QB2
The Next Two
Jordan Love (GB)
I don’t have a whole lot to say about the Packers’ draft that hasn’t already been said. It’s like the team saw their 2019 performance depended upon good play from their quarterback and running back, so they decided to reinforce those positions instead of adding depth elsewhere. And honestly, it looks more like a power move by head coach Matt LaFleur than anything else.
Even if Love somehow starts, I wouldn’t want a rookie quarterback passing to whatever scrubs Green Bay lines up opposite Davante Adams.
Grade: Hard pass
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
I like this pick for Philadelphia. Carson Wentz is fantastic, but he’s struggled with injuries, and Philly needed some help at backup quarterback. Sure, they could’ve waited for someone like Eason or Fromm, but Hurts has enough athleticism to earn himself some playing time alongside Wentz.
That said, there’s no way Hurts returns fantasy value unless Wentz goes down.
Grade: Off my radar in redraft
One For the Road
Jacob Eason (IND)
Okay, hear me out. There are two guys taken after Love with the potential to start next season, and one of them is Eason (the other is Jake Luton, but I’m not going to speculate about Jacksonville until after Andy Dalton and Cam Newton find new homes). And no, that’s not because I love him as a prospect. Let’s look at Indy’s quarterback room: Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, and Eason.
While Jim Irsay and Frank Reich love Rivers, he’s 38 years old, and he’s coming off a down season. Rivers still played above league-average last year, but that was with some solid weapons in Los Angeles. His best receivers in Indianapolis? T.Y. Hilton and rookie Michael Pittman Jr. That’s good, but it’s still a downgrade.
It’s also clear that Brissett is no longer in the team’s plans. When owner Jim Irsay said that he needed “more time to develop,” he found a polite way to start moving on from the ex-Patriot. Eason has a chance to start if Rivers regresses heavily in Indianapolis and the team finds itself eliminated from playoff contention early. Don’t draft him, but read the tea leaves in Indy and keep him on your watch list.
Grade: On my watchlist
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator
Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
