These “diamonds in the rough” aren’t the high-profile players with plenty of hype behind them. Their very low (basically free) price means that they have plenty of equity built-in and can perform well above their ADP (average draft position) if things break right. Granted, their cost is heavily depressed because the risk outweighs the reward for many, but remember, these athletes cost nothing.
If you guess wrong, you just send them to the free-agent pool. If you guess right, you may end up holding onto a player with mid-round or greater value that was initially acquired for nothing. Jorge Soler was one example of a player taken outside the top-150 hitters last year who managed to finish inside the top-25 among all batters. Most late-round stashes won’t pay off, but there’s always the chance that you strike gold with one. There’s no better time to take a chance on upside than at the end of your draft, so our featured experts have shared their insight on which players you would be wise to consider going after as your draft winds down.
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Q1. Who is the one hitter outside the top 150 in hitter ADP you are targeting as a late-round stash on all your teams and why?
Dylan Carlson (OF – STL): ADP – H167 | 273rd Overall
“Carlson was on the verge of his Major League debut after an impressive 2019 season. The switch-hitter batted .292 with 26 homers and 68 RBIs over two minor league stops while maintaining a robust plate approach with a 116/58 K/BB in 126 games. Carlson is a five-tool player who played all three outfield positions while hitting .313 this spring. His great spring training production before the stoppage might force the issue in the Cardinals’ outfield. There are openings in this outfield with Dexter Fowler, who was worth just 1.5 wins above replacement last season, Harrison Bader, who appears safe but struggles against righties, and the oft-injured Tyler O’Neill. While we might not see the 21-year-old to start the regular season, his time in the minors will be short-lived. Carlson will be playing outfield at Busch Stadium later this summer and his high floor will be a nice late-round stash in your five-outfielder lineups.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
“I’ll be stashing outfielder Dylan Carlson of the St. Louis Cardinals. This top-20 prospect is a legitimate five-tool player in the making. Prior to the lockdown, he was among the best hitters in spring training and seemed destined to win himself a starting job either from the get-go or within the first six weeks of the season. With Dexter Fowler and Tyler O’Neill both being question marks, Carlson should have no trouble finding his way to 400+ at-bats if we have a full season somehow.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Daniel Murphy (1B/2B – COL): ADP – H151 | 245th Overall
“A year ago we were drafting Murphy as a potential batting champion in Colorado and now he’s basically free in all drafts. He had one of the worst years of his career, with a barrel percentage of just 2.4% and a .290 xwOBA. However, that decline was likely based in large part due to Murphy fracturing his finger in the Rockies’ second game last year, rushing back early (as the team admitted after the season), and needing to wear a split to play when he returned. Even at 35 years old, there’s plenty of reasons to think that Murphy can hit .300 in Coors Field, with decent counting stats all around. If he does, then he’ll be a steal at his ADP.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
Anthony Santander (OF – BAL): ADP – H205 | 342nd Overall
“I have been targeting Santander in deeper leagues as my fifth outfielder, who I have projected as just outside the top-150 hitters. While he is going outside the top 200 in hitter ADP, he has a corner outfield job to himself in Baltimore. Yes, that means he is hitting in the middle of the order with half of his games in Camden Yards, one of the best offensive environments in the league. In a normal season, I could see Santander approaching 25 homers with a combined 150 runs and RBIs to go along with a .250 average. If you whiff on Domingo Santana just a little bit earlier, Santander is a great fallback option.”
– Carmen Maiorano (FantasyPros)
Q2. Who is the one starting pitcher outside the top 70 in starting pitcher ADP you are targeting as a late-round stash on all your teams and why?
Chris Archer (SP – PIT): ADP – SP76 | 263rd Overall
“Fantasy owners should be targeting most Pirates pitchers late in their drafts, as the switch from Ray Searage to the more analytically-inclined Oscar Marin should serve everyone, including Archer, well. Archer relied heavily on his sinker after getting to Pittsburgh, a pitch that simply had awful results (.378 BA, .778 SLG against). However, he was vocal about his unhappiness with his ‘new’ approach and, after throwing his sinker 20.4% of the time through May last season, he threw it just 2% of the time thereafter. The overall results weren’t dynamic, but Archer’s decreased sinker usage resulted in a 0.78 drop in his ERA, a run and a half drop in his xFIP, and nearly a 10th of a point off his WHIP. It’s a good bet that Archer will continue his late-2019 approach this year and better results should follow, making him a late-round target.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
Jordan Montgomery (SP – NYY): ADP – SP85 | 280th Overall
“The Yankees need Montgomery to perform with the plethora of injuries to their starting rotation. He has stepped up and claimed a spot in the New York Yankees’ rotation with a strong spring by recording 16 strikeouts to just one walk in 11.1 innings. Montgomery has missed most of the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but has seen a two-tick fastball velocity bump this spring, which is an encouraging sign to mix in with his multi-pitch arsenal. The southpaw owns a career 8.3 K/9 along with an 11.9 percent swinging-strike rate and will provide wins with a stacked Yankees lineup. Montgomery presents plenty of upside and won’t kill your counting stats, allowing him to be the perfect pitcher stash selection in the last few rounds of your draft.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
Rich Hill (SP – MIN): ADP – SP120 | 391st Overall
“Hill is the easy answer here, given that he’s still being drafted as the 120th starting pitcher. He should be back in time for the regular season (yes, I’m not expecting us to start until June, at the earliest) and provide outstanding ratios to go along with a strikeout rate just below 30%. Combine his skills with pitching in the terrible AL Central and Hill could easily be a low-end SP2/high-end SP3 in this shortened season.”
– Carmen Maiorano (FantasyPros)
Brendan McKay (SP – TB): ADP – SP87 | 286th Overall
“My answer is McKay because I think most would consider him to be a stash, but frankly, I’d feel comfortable with him as my SP3 if I’m being honest. He was the best pitcher in Minor League Baseball last season and although he struggled a bit in his MLB debut, he should be a monster this season much like Tyler Glasnow’s breakout following a rough first season. McKay is a big lefty with command over each of his nasty pitches.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for their late-round stashes. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more advice all season and check out our latest podcast below.
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