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With our added offseason time here at FantasyPros, we are going through each of the ten standard categories and drafting teams while punting each category one at a time. In this post, we’ll be drafting a team and punting steals. You can find each of our articles in the series here.

This is one of the more interesting categories to consider a punt with since it correlates strongly with no other category. There are certain players we can completely scratch off our draft list after deciding to punt the category. This team is sure to be really heavy on homers and hopefully a strong pitching staff as well.

League Settings

I set up this league to have 20 starting slots (10 hitters, 10 pitchers) and two bench. Here are the full details:

Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF x3, UTIL x2, P x10
Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV
My Pick: 6th

Strategy

• Use FantasyPros Zeile projections and Microsoft Excel to make customer pre-ranks that factor in which category I am punting.
• Go after a few starting pitchers earlier since I do not have to worry about getting my share of the very scarce steals category.
• Focus on batting average early when drafting hitters, pile up the homers and RBI a bit later on

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Results

1.6 Juan Soto (OF – WAS)
In a normal circumstance, Nolan Arenado would have been the easy pick here since he is elite in everything but steals. However, I am doing this draft with the delayed season in mind, and I do not want Arenado here if we are not sure he is playing half of his games in Coors Field – and that seems pretty unlikely at this point. Soto gives me fantastic production in everything but steals, so he is a perfect fit for this strategy here – even if I am reaching quite a bit by ADP standards.

2.7 Rafael Devers (3B – BOS)
I considered a pitcher here but decided there was a big enough grouping in my next tier that I could wait until round three. Devers was atop my custom rankings at this point as he was one of the best fantasy hitters in the league when you ignored the steals category last year. To get him with the 19th overall pick was a pretty nice grab.

3.6 Mike Clevinger (SP – CLE)
The spring training surgery knocked him down in the ranks, but that is a complete non-factor now with the delay. Clevinger still sits at a discount despite the environmental change, so I am all about making him my ace here in the third round after getting two elite hitters.

4.7 Yordan Alvarez (DH – HOU)
I probably should have gone starting pitcher here, but Alvarez in a punt steals build was just too much to pass up. He could easily lead the league in homers and RBI while supplying a .290 batting average and a ton of runs scored to boot. Steals and uncertainty are the only things stopping him from being a first-round caliber hitter, so I am thrilled to nab him this late.

5.6 Charlie Morton (SP – TB)
Easiest pick of my draft so far, Morton was at the top of my pitching ranks since my Clevinger pick in the third round. He is a fantastic per-inning fantasy pitcher and should have no problem pitching a full season in 2020 given the condensed schedule. Clevinger and Morton make a very strong 1-2 punch.

6.7 Tyler Glasnow (SP – TB)
Back to back Rays pitchers to even my team out with three hitters and three pitchers. With already forfeiting one offensive category, I wanted to make sure I come in the top half of the league in pitching, and the way to do that without taking a tier-one pitcher was to be the strongest 1-4 in the league. Devoting these two picks to Morton and Glasnow give me three guys that could flirt with tier one SP finishes in this short season, so I am really liking where I’m at here.

7.6 Josh Donaldson (3B – MIN)
My last pick was between Glasnow and Donaldson, so this was an easy choice. I will gladly take the elite homers and runs batted in production in the middle of that juiced Twins lineup here, and I have enough batting average already to be able to afford the slight hit in that category.

8.7 Carlos Correa (SS – HOU)
This is the first pick where I considered position. Matt Chapman was at the top of my ranks, but the shortstop vacancy on my team made me select Correa here. He brings huge upside to the table, as he is one of the better hitters in the game on a per-game basis. If he can stay healthy over the full season here, he will be an absolute steal at this spot. Now it’s time for some more pitching.

9.6 James Paxton (SP – NYY)
Paxton should be healthy for the beginning of the season, or at least only miss a couple of weeks. That makes him a legitimate SP1 option here in the ninth round. He is an awesome 4th starter for me and should be a wins-machine.

10.7 Frankie Montas (SP – OAK)
This is about the point in the draft where starting pitching falls off a cliff, so it was time to grab Montas here. He was one of the best fantasy pitchers in the league last year in his half-season sample, so getting him as my SP5 is just a ridiculous value here. I firmly believe I have the best 1-5 SP group in this league right now, so I can start focusing on rounding out my offense.

11.6 Ken Giles (RP – TOR)
Taking a closer this early was not something I really wanted to do, but a lot of teams had already dipped their toes into this pool and I did not want to be left without a guy with strong job security heading into this shortened season. Punting a category makes it imperative to be strong in the other nine, so I had to get some saves a little earlier than I would usually like.

12.7 Max Kepler (OF – MIN)
The counting stats are just so good for Kepler in this Twins lineup, and I really think he is a great bet to really outperform this draft price with the age and plate skills. I finished up my outfield with Kepler and solidified myself as a really strong counting stats team.

13.6 Yuli Gurriel (1B – HOU)
More strong counting stats here in that Astros lineup and Gurriel gives me some nice late-round batting average as well. He is not a guy I am really big on this year in normal situations, but he makes a lot of sense for a team that is punting steals and needs a mid-round first baseman.

14.7 Archie Bradley (RP – ARI)
I wanted to come back with another solidified closer before that position really fell off the cliff, and Bradley gives me that. The Diamondbacks should be at worst a league-average team, so there should be a good amount of saves in the tank for Bradley to bolster me in that category.

15.6 Gavin Lux (2B – LAD)
Upside pick here to fill my vacancy at second base. It’s possible Lux really busts and ends up on waivers pretty soon after the season begins, but the talent is enough to make him a pretty easy dice roll in the 15th round here.

16.7 Giovanny Gallegos (RP – STL)
One more closer for me to make me feel good about being competitive week-to-week. All signs point to Carlos Martinez being in the starting rotation for the Cardinals, so Gallegos should have his this job to begin the year – and he was incredibly effective in his big league innings last year.

17.6 Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
Can’t have enough batting average, and with a bunch of mashers already on my offense, I figured it wise to grab another potential .300 batting average guy here. I don’t expect much from Reynolds in anything but batting average, but he will work just fine in this build.

18.7 Chris Archer (SP – PIT)
Needed one more starter and Archer fit the bill here. He is a nice bounce-back candidate this year as the Pirates shifted approach with him a bit at the end of last year and he saw more success. As my #6 starter on a short roster, there is no real risk here, and I could potentially be grabbing an SP3 talent if he can figure it out in Pittsburgh this year.

19.6 Christian Walker (1B – ARI)
I like the upside for Walker in a steals punt, as his breakout 2019 season went largely unnoticed it seems. He has some great hitters in the lineup in front of him, so he should be a nice source of RBIs if nothing else.

20.7 Justin Upton (OF – ARI)
One of the best value hitters on the board, Upton should continue hitting homers and driving in runs in that Angels offense. The steals and batting average will be downsides, but I only care about one of those on this team. Selecting Upton wrapped up my draft.

Results

I really like this team. The software gave me a pretty pathetic rating, but that was mainly because I neglected to draft a catcher so I am getting a bunch of zeroes in the sums for each category. Replace Justin Upton with a catcher there and these offensive category ranks look way better.

The pitching staff was built with the shortened season in mind, and the projections are not taking that into account – so the grading here is going to be very rough.

I think Clevinger, Morton, Glasnow, Paxton, and Montas all have SP1 upsides and should all be upgraded by the delayed and shortened season. This is a very strong team despite the software being mean to it.

All-in-all, I would not recommend a steals punt. Steals are the most projectable offensive category there is, meaning if you try to win the category, you are likely to actually win the category. I want to take advantage of that and be one of the league leaders in steals this year.

However, taking away those steals does change the ranks quite a bit and results in the ability to get some awesome value in guys like Yordan Alvarez, Josh Donaldson, Yuli Gurriel, and Max Kepler.

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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.