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12-Team Mock Draft: Early Pitchers Only (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

12-Team Mock Draft: Early Pitchers Only (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

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I love mock drafts. I certainly see the flaws that can arise in unreliable results, but I’m not here for the results. I’m here for the practice.

It’s similar to batting practice. If we stand in the box and take ten hacks at a softly thrown ball, we’ll get better at swinging a bat and some fundamentals but little else. If, however, we are practicing our opposite field approach, then we can make significant strides.

The goal of practice is not to go through the motions, but to practice with intent. We want to get better, and we can only do so if we have a plan, i.e. hitting the ball to the opposite field. How to best achieve this? Limit our options.

Take away the pull side of the field. Hitting there is, for this purpose, not allowed.

For this particular mock draft, the “pull side” will be taking batters early. I’m going to intentionally spend my first three picks on pitchers. It’s a limiting factor, and it will allow me to practice with a built-in disadvantage.

It is also worth noting that I personally have a natural bias toward drafting pitchers early. I see them carry a premium in almost every real draft I do, so this mock will simulate the constraints I do expect to have when settling down to make my actual team.

In keeping with the earlier running analogy, I know the pitcher is going to sit on the outer half of the plate. It’s best not to try to pull the ball. Just go with it. And see if we can’t make a winning team without drafting a hitter for the first three rounds.

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Results

The lineup of this 12-team draft is C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN, and was conducted using FantasyPros’ Draft Simulator.

1.6 Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM)
This was easy enough. Limiting myself to only pitchers and drafting in the middle of the first round made it likely that I would land on either Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom. That’s exactly what happened. Had both of them gone, it would have been a problem, and I probably would have went with Walker Buehler.

Others Considered: Walker Buehler

2.7 Walker Buehler (SP – LAD)
Whoa! This surprised me. I know that I’m generally on the higher end of the scale for industry sentiment on Walker Buehler — I already admitted I would have considered him in the first round in this draft — but taking him in the second round is a dream scenario. In fact, if this draft were not limited to pitchers through the first three rounds, I would be kicking myself for passing on a bat in the first if I had any inclination that I could get Buehler in the second round. Even if this had been a real draft where I took deGrom, I can’t fathom passing on Buehler here.

Others Considered: Jack Flaherty

3.6 Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a bigger Clayton Kershaw supporter than the writer of this column, but I struggled mightily with deciding between one of the best pitchers of this generation and the young-but-established Blake Snell. In an honest moment, Snell should probably be the right pick here. The only hesitation is Snell’s injury scare in the preseason. I’m operating under the premise that he’ll be fine by the time the season starts, but this is the last pitcher I will be taking for a while. I don’t want to roll the dice with Snell.

Others Considered: Blake Snell

4.7 Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC)
We have good news and bad news. The good news is that I didn’t have to put much thought into which side of my team I needed to improve, as I finally reached the point where I am allowing myself to take hitters. The bad news is that the decision wasn’t easy. Ketel Marte is probably the smarter choice because of his eligibility and, without any hitter positions filled, I can’t gauge how I will fill the rest of my lineup. The deciding factor was that I needed each of my first few hitters to vastly outperform their draft positions and give me a season’s worth of numbers that justifies at least one round higher. The theory is that my team should start with five players all worthy of being drafted in the top-three rounds. Adalberto Mondesi has that potential.

Others Considered: Ketel Marte

5.6 Keston Hiura (2B – MIL)
In sticking with the theme of tough decisions based solely on upside, I tortured myself between two of my ‘must-have’ players for this year. I’m a little more content passing on Marte now that I know I’ve locked up second base with Keston Hiura, and the only risk I’m running is in missing Moncada. Third base remains deep, but I’ve also let 60 other players go off the board, so I can’t praise the depth, just yet. Still, Hiura is the target capable of giving me returns worthy of a top-three round selection.

Others Considered: Yoan Moncada

6.7 Yoan Moncada (3B – CWS)
Yes, it’s a mock draft, but I still gave a fist pump when Moncada made it back to me. Had it not been him, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was hanging out long enough that he was a real possibility. I would have been thrilled with that as well. As it stands, I’m through six rounds with three hitters and three pitchers. The noteworthy piece of this current path is that I would have taken Aroldis Chapman in other situations — basically, if I had two starting pitchers and not a third — but bats are now such a premium for me that I have to deviate. The big question will be if I can get enough bullpen support in the later rounds.

Others Considered: Aroldis Chapman

7.6 Gary Sanchez (C – NYY)
My problem solved itself. With so many closers still available, I’m going to take a calculated risk and wait a little longer before grabbing one. I’ve moved out of the tier where I’m completely comfortable, and I can make a case against each of the remaining options. I’m also forcing myself to not own Jose Berrios as I would in every other league, but largely because I can keep building my offense with high upside picks for their respective positions. Like Gary Sanchez as the second catcher drafted.

Others Considered: Jose Berrios, Roberto Osuna, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen

8.7 Liam Hendriks (RP – OAK)
The risk worked as intended. Not only did one of the closers from the prior available group make it to me, but all three did. Now, I have another tough decision, but this one is solely based on preference and not deep analysis. If you’re drafting with this same setup, feel free to disagree, but I prefer Hendrik’s dual value. His role is probably the shakiest of the three I’m considering, but it likely holds if he continues to be a dominant reliever. I could make a loose case that Roberto Osuna is a surprise candidate to lose his job or Kenley Jensen holds onto the closer role even through struggles, but Hendriks sets up to be the best of both worlds. His talent should allow him to keep getting saves, but I won’t shed too many tears if the Oakland Athletics get cute and move him around, as long as he’s delivering ratio statistics for my team.

Others Considered: Roberto Osuna, Kenley Jansen

9.6 Matt Chapman (3B – OAK)
I don’t love the idea of filling my third base slot a second time, but herein lies the problem with the position’s depth. Since I am so greatly lacking offense, I need as much value as possible. Matt Chapman provides that and could easily be my everyday utility player.

Others Considered: Ramon Laureano, Michael Brantley, Edwin Diaz

10.7 Franmil Reyes (OF – CLE)
Sticking with the same desperation for offense exhibited with my last pick, I needed a hitter, and I wanted one with upside. An outfielder was preferred. Enter Franmil Reyes. In fairness, Reyes has been a target in nearly every one of my drafts — mock or real — and it’s always for the same reason. He brings power in the middle rounds and has tremendous potential overall.

Others Considered: Taylor Rogers, Raisel Iglesias

11.6 Miguel Sano (1B/3B – MIN)
Miguel Sano is another mainstay in my target list, and his dual-eligibility makes him that much more appealing. If he can stay on the field, he can challenge for the league’s home run crown. I’ll take the chance with his injury history to get such a high ceiling.

Others Considered: Carlos Santana, David Dahl

12.7 David Dahl (OF – COL)
Can you sense a trend forming? Each of the last three picks — including this one — has centered around risk and reward. It’s why all three were available in the middle rounds, but it’s also exactly the right place to pounce. David Dahl could be an elite fantasy producer if he can stay healthy, and he’s the latest on my team that fits the mold.

Others Considered: Zac Gallen

13.6 Hansel Robles (RP – LAA)
If I were searching for flaws with this approach of forcing pitchers into my first three picks, then one just emerged. That is, I can’t take risks with starting pitchers, and I likely won’t get most of my preferred sleepers. I need — in the sense that it is imperative to my team’s success — all three of my first picks to perform as stars and justify the sacrifices my roster made for them. In Round 13, it cost me Zac Gallen, and I had to accept it and pivot to a closer. Welcome to the team, Hansel Robles.

Others Considered: Archie Bradley

14.7 Archie Bradley (RP – ARI)
Again, I have to force myself out of risk in the starting pitcher department and build volume somewhere. It’s either additional bats or closers, and I prefer the latter here knowing that I will continue to build my bench in the coming rounds. Archie Bradley may not be the most stable source of saves, but he’s a depth piece.

Others Considered: German Marquez, Justin Upton

15.6 German Marquez (SP – COL)
Let’s watch this episode play one more time. In every other draft, I have taken Mitch Keller by this point. If I were drafting in this position and he were available, I would be upset that he isn’t already on my team. That’s when the voice in my head reminds me that I can’t take the risk. Not now. Not on this team. I’m not the biggest fan of German Marquez, but he slides in as my fourth starting pitcher. I can manage his home and away games, if I choose, and limit my exposure to him pitching in Colorado. He sported a 3.67 ERA in home games, last year, and a gaudy 6.26 ERA at home. So yes, I’d be spot starting him if this were a real league.

Others Considered: Mitch Keller

16.7 Mitch Keller (SP – PIT)
It looks like I was rewarded for sticking to my plan. I won’t think twice before pouncing on one of my prized prospects for this year. Mitch Keller’s high strikeout rate and equally high risk works well with my rotation, and a shortened season will probably benefit him. It is worth noting that I have bought into Keller no matter the length of this upcoming baseball season.

Others Considered: Bryan Reynolds

17.6 Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
While I have not changed my stance on many players during this delay to the regular season — if anything, I like some of them even more — I have found myself gravitating toward Bryan Reynolds lately. We can pencil in some regression for his batting average, but he is expected to bat in front of a few decent hitters in an otherwise lacking lineup. I’ll take the runs and RBIs he provides at this stage of the draft. Any increase in power would be a bonus.

Others Considered: Ryan McMahon

18.7 Justin Upton (OF – LAA)
I had Justin Upton on my radar a few rounds ago, but the need for a stronger offensive bench pushed me into finally taking the plunge. Batting somewhere around Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and occasionally Shohei Ohtani can only help Upton, and it provides a clear path for him to return a significant increase in value over the price paid to acquire him.

Others Considered: Joey Votto

19.6 Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL)
Drafting Adalberto Mondesi as early as I did moved my attention away from speed for the majority of the draft. In fact, I didn’t specifically target another stolen base source until now. Lorenzo Cain is not only that source, but he’s an ideal rebound candidate who has been largely overlooked. His batting average dipped to its lowest point over the last six years when it settled at .260 in 2019, but he has four other years in which he hit at least .300. In that same span, he stole at least 25 bases four times. Last year has decreased the asking price on Cain. I’m ready to buy at a discount.

Others Considered: Didi Gregorius, Mychal Givens

20.7 Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA)
I have been targeting Dylan Bundy for the majority of this preseason, and he continues to be available as a late-round flier in most drafts. I won’t ignore the risk attached to him in that he simply might not be as effective as I expect, but therein lies the beauty of a 20th round pick. If his only contribution to my team is an increase in wins with his move from the Baltimore Orioles to the Los Angeles Angels, then his potentially high ERA and WHIP will be saved by the rest of my high-end staff.

Others Considered: Joey Lucchesi

21.6 Mark Canha (1B/OF – OAK)
I’ll credit the FantasyPros Draft Simulator for suggesting Mark Canha, and it was the absolute perfect pick at the right time. If we set his baseline for batting average low — seeing as it is the only statistic that could “hurt” our team — then we’re trading average for power. The optimistic approach to this problem is that we’re adding roughly 25 home runs for free. Power is now a regular piece of most hitters’ games, but, at this stage of the draft, I want it all in one place as opposed to searching for multiple sources of double-digit home run potential.

Others Considered: Dansby Swanson

22.7 Reynaldo Lopez (SP – CWS)
Like some of my other picks, feel free to disagree with the preference I have, but focus on the group available to me. I like Reynaldo Lopez for both his growth expectations and the addition of a “framing catcher” in Yasmani Grandal — where Lopez could see an increase in strikes on borderline pitches. I also project the Chicago White Sox to be much more successful than they were in 2019, so Lopez has a realistic chance at a dozen wins — over a full 162-game schedule, anyway. Again, this pick was for depth with my starting pitching, and Joey Lucchesi and Chris Archer would have been fine substitutions for Lopez had I wanted to go in a different direction.

Others Considered: Chris Archer, Joey Lucchesi

Summary

Stepping back for a Big Picture look at my team, I’m actually thrilled with it. Really, this shouldn’t be a surprise for me. I already mentioned that I have a tendency to lean on pitchers early, so the overall strategy wasn’t foreign. To force myself away from a hitter in the third round, however, took some decisions out of my hands.

They worked. That’s the part that should surprise me.

I’ve done my fair share of mock drafts, this preseason, and the specific players from this team vary wildly from my earlier iterations. I like that. I like not being able to pass on Matt Chapman. I like ranking Adalberto Mondesi, Keston Hiura, and Yoan Moncada, and then following my ranking without deviation.

Ultimately, what I learned in this draft is that I could no longer target “want.” Everything was a “need,” and that helped me make more productive choices. The trade-off is that most of my sleepers and high risk-reward targets were off-limits, but it appears to have worked out for the best.

The real takeaway from this exercise is that forcing three pitchers into my lineup is an extreme move, but one that might provide a better overall roster than my normal approach of selecting one or two pitchers through three rounds. I usually dip my toe in the metaphorical pool, where I would have players like Jose Berrios or Noah Syndergaard instead of a Yoan Moncada. Here I was able to completely address my starting pitching in bulk and never have to question it.

I will strongly consider this route for my own drafts. After all, I always preach that I want to separate my team from the pack by being aggressive. Taking three pitchers through three rounds will certainly help me deviate from the norm.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

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