Sleepers for Home Runs (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

It’s trickier to highlight sleepers for home runs when so many sluggers are hiding in plain sight.

At this time last year, we didn’t know MLB was going to play Home Run Derby all season. The environment led to plenty of unanticipated power sources comprising the list of 58 hitters to pop 30 or more long balls. Despite their power surges, Renato Nunez, Randal Grichuk, Kole Calhoun, Hunter Renfroe, and Daniel Vogelbach are once again all going outside the top 250 of 2020 drafts.

Perhaps those players, particularly Nunez and Grichuk, classify as sleepers if they can merely repeat their 2019 performance. But where’s the fun in that? Let’s instead look for the next batch of boppers capable of taking a similar leap. Like last year’s success stories, these sleepers may not help in other categories beyond home runs, limiting their overall value if last year’s trends hold.

Also, the aim here is to dig deeper beyond mid-tier breakout candidates such as Franmil Reyes, Kyle Schwarber, and Miguel Sano. They’re all strong targets if craving power in the double-digit rounds, but none of them are truly sleepers. The following hitters all have an ADP, per FantasyPros’ consensus, beyond the top 250, and only one is likely to be drafted in the typical 12-team mixed league.

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C.J. Cron (1B – DET)
On one hand, Cron has the furthest profile from one typically associated with sleepers. The first baseman enters his age-30 season with a career .258/.311/.462 slash line that he nearly replicated with a pedestrian .253/.311/.469 in 2019. Last season’s 101 wRC+ only validates his status as average.

That boring profile will lead to value. Despite those yawn-inducing rate stats, Cron submitted 30 long balls in 2018 before tallying 25 in 499 plate appearances last year. It was a tale of two halves, as he was on the cusp of a legitimate breakout before a thumb injury sequestered him to the IL on July 23.

 
It didn’t show in his final output, but Cron also made major Statcast gains. Along with improving his barrel rate — his 15.0% ranked 13th among all qualified hitters — the righty set personal bests in expected batting average (.277 xBA) and slugging percentage (.548 xSLG). Statcast compares his batted-ball profile to the 2018 versions of Jesus Aguilar, who socked 36 dingers before a 2019 decline.

Hardly the most exciting sleeper, Cron’s surface stats have yet to tease much upside. His steep splits (160 wRC+ vs. LHP, 78 wRC+ vs. RHP) also lead to fears of a platoon split. Luckily, he found a team with little competition. The Tigers should not only start him every day, but pencil him in third or fourth on their daily lineup card. Those plate appearances put him well on the path for at least 30 homers, and the intriguing Statcast data offers hope of a bit more with a .260 batting average. That’s great for a cheap corner infielder drawing a 278.2 ADP.

Mike Yastrzemski (OF – SF)
Drafters also tend to dismiss a 29-year-old rookie’s success story. After withering away in Baltimore’s farm system for six years, Yastrzemski earned his first big league opportunity in 2019. After plastering a .316/.414/.676 slash line in 40 Triple-A games, he debuted to a highly respectable 121 wRC+ with the Giants.

Given his middling minor league track record, few believe Yastrzemski can sustain last year’s newfound power over a full season. It certainly doesn’t help that he’s a lefty playing half of his games at AT&T Park, which stifles left-handed home runs way more than any other venue. Then again, this is why he has a 304 ADP after towering 21 homers in just 411 plate appearances.

Unlike Cron, Yastrzemski waited until the summer to heat up. He started his career by hitting .242/.292/.425 through 130 poor plate appearances. Then the fun began. Buoyed by a noticeable change in approach, he hit .287/.354/.562 in the second half. Not only did he hit more fly balls, but far fewer lingered in the air as feeble pop-ups. The gains in quality of contact are further evident by his skyrocketed hard-hit rate:

 
Yastrzemski would be a buzzy sleeper pick if he called just about any other ballpark home. On the bright side, the Giants should give him every opportunity to maintain a starting job. Roster Resource even projects him to lead off, a role he inhabited for most of September. While that could lead to a more patient approach, more plate appearances mean more chances to go yard. Don’t be surprised if he remains an unlikely productive starter with 25-30 taters.

Travis Shaw (3B – TOR)
The case for Shaw is simple: We’ve already seen him do it … twice.

Before an absolutely calamitous 2019, he went deep 31 times in 2017 and 32 in 2018. He’ll get a chance for redemption in Toronto, where he should get the first crack at first base over an even deeper power sleeper, Rowdy Tellez. Last season, Rogers Center ranked sixth in FantasyPros’ park factor ratings for home runs by lefties.

And yes, I did just “yada yada” over the downfall. Last year’s .270 slugging percentage was the worst among all batters with at least 250 plate appearances. Yes, worse than Billy Hamilton. There’s no sugarcoating how awful he was by crying fluke. His contact rate plummeted more than 10 points from 81.4 to 70.8, leading to strikeouts on a third of his plate appearances.

Shaw stunk, so the only case for a bounce-back is to give him a mulligan. The 29-year-old is returning to his old swing after tweaking it to horrid results. While banking on a change of scenery may feel over-simplistic, the mere fact that he believes it will help spurn a rebound can manifest itself into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Most importantly, he’s essentially free at a 364 ADP. He’s well worth an end-game gamble in 15-team leagues.

Tyler O’Neill (OF – STL)
O’Neill is one of those guys you assume has been around forever, only to realize he’s still 24. He’s also yet to get a prolonged opportunity, hitting 14 homers in 258 plate appearances scattered across the last two years. While the pop waned across all levels during a year in which everyone else Hulked up, this is still a prodigious talent who produced 122 dingers from 2015 to 2018.

This could finally be the year St. Louis lets him sink or swim in the majors. After losing Marcell Ozuna to the Braves, the Cardinals replaced him by adding … absolutely nobody. They instead have an avalanche of options — O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas — to fill their entire outfield. Spring training will likely swing this wide-open battle, and O’Neill opened the exhibition with two homers and four walks in five games.

The 37.5% career strikeout rate is a problem, but not quite a deal-breaker. He has made up for the whiffs with hard contact, more so in 2018. If he wins the job, O’Neill can at least reside in the .240s with 25-30 homers — Steamer projects 24 in 430 plate appearances — and a few steals. Remember that we’re talking about a no-cost player possessing a 402.7 ADP. Consider him another 15-team mixed or NL-only buy who can quickly rise into mainstream territory by staying hot and winning a starting job.

Franchy Cordero (OF – SD)
A 25-year-old with 70-grade raw power and a path to playing time seems like the perfect fit for this search.

Once upon a time, Cordero was a promising newcomer with 30-homer, 20-steal upside. That was all the way back in 2018, when he recorded seven long balls and five steals in just 40 games for the Padres. During the small sample size, he hit over half (51.9%) of his batted balls at least 95 miles per hour, registering a 92.6-mph average exit velocity. Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler tied for 10th among qualified hitters with that same mark last year.

Injuries halted his ascension and limited him to just 24 professional games (nine in the majors) all of last season. Although he obliterated Triple-A (.326, 17 HRs, 15 SBs in 93 games) in 2017, he’s a forgotten man brandishing a 449.5 ADP. That’s despite having a chance to see significant playing time out of the gate.

The Padres went from too many outfielders to not enough. Assuming Trent Grisham locks down the center-field gig, Cordero will compete with Josh Naylor and Wil Myers for reps in right field. Given Cordero’s career 110 wRC+ against righties, a platoon with Myers might be on the horizon. He only needs to be selected in deep NL-only or draft-and-holds, but be sure to monitor his progress this spring and early April.

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